2017 Running Back Report

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Dynasty DeLorean
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2017 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun May 21, 2017 1:08 pm

Hello and welcome. If you're unfamiliar, I started this project because I was tired of not knowing which RB's would be studs and which would bust. Blowing a 1st round rookie pick on a bust is a huge waste of resources. Well, many months and hundreds of hours later, I finally cracked the numeric code of a 3-down, bell-cow running back. I run the numbers of every draft class through my super duper secret calculations that account for a myriad of variables and *beep boop blorp* out comes a nice neat list of quality RB prospects. It really is that easy.

A few notes before we get started;

1) Any RB can have any outcome in the NFL, all I'm trying to do is show you the odds or likelihood of a particular outcome. There will be Rb's not on any of these lists that have done very well for themselves (Devonta Freeman for example). Some things simply can't be predicted based solely on numbers. There are others who are on these lists that have amounted to nothing. I did my best to explain what these lists mean, but ultimately it's up to you to to decide what to do with the information I'm providing. I did my best to clarify which are the facts and which is my opinion.

2) I also want to thank those who donated so that I could get the data needed to make a report like this. Much love!

3) One more thing to note if you're not familiar with my work. The "Tier 1 Stud" list requirements have essentially been unchanged since it's inception and has been predictive since 2015. So far the track record has been very good. Zeke, DJ all look to be the part. We're still in wait-and-see mode on Derrick Henry. Todd Gurley has been addressed in the notes. The other lists have been more or less musings of mine over the years, a way to re-order the leftover information not accounted for in the Tier 1 Stud list. This would be the first year that I feel like I've finally nailed them down pretty well (thanks to the newly acquired wealth of data) to a degree that might actually be useful to fantasy football owners.

4) Everything I've written makes complete sense to me, but that's partly because I've been working on it for several years now. If you are confused about something, just ask...


So without further ado...

__________________________________________________________________________

Tier 1: The Studs
2017-----Leonard Fournette
2017-----D'Onta Foreman
2016-----Ezekiel Elliott
2016-----Derrick Henry
2015-----David Johnson
2013-----Le'Veon Bell
2011-----DeMarco Murray
2010-----Ryan Mathews
2008-----Matt Forte
2008-----Chris Johnson
2008-----Darren McFadden
2008-----Jamaal Charles
2008-----Ray Rice
2007-----Marshawn Lynch
2007-----Adrian Peterson
2006-----Maurice Jones-Drew
2004-----Steven Jackson
2001-----LaDainian Tomlinson

The players on this list;
-Have roughly an 80% chance of rushing for 3+ 1,000 yard seasons.
-All have produced a minimum of 2 1,000 yard rushing seasons.

Notes:
1) You may have noticed Todd Gurley is no longer on this list. The funny thing about numbers is once they’re written down you forget the context of their origin. The truth is Gurley never worked out at the combine or pro day. His numbers were all educated guesses based on previous workouts. However, once the numbers went onto my spreadsheet I sort of lost track of their questionable origin. Several years ago when I first started this undertaking, I didn’t even know if it would work and so maybe I wasn’t as careful as I should have been with vetting all the numbers. I should have never put Gurley firmly on the Tier 1 list without valid workout scores or a note saying it’s more of an educated guess rather than a fact. From watching his film, I do believe his workout scores were estimated pretty closely which is why I originally included him on the list. In hindsight I believe that was a mistake because I really need to have solid numbers or else what am I doing here. I suppose the point is, I do believe he should still be on the list, however I cannot put him on without the requisite workout scores.

2) Le’Veon Bell does qualify for this list under the criteria I used at this projects inception, however he clears the threshold in a way no other running back does. From my experience with this project, when you see a profile different from all the rest that is usually not a good thing. So we have to ask ourselves the question, is Bell miscast in this list? Has he maxed out already? Or does his unique profile truly belong among the rest of the studs. He does qualify for a lesser tier that generally results in 1-2 1,000 yard rushing seasons. Maybe his true fit is there? Unfortunately, only time will tell. I'm personally split on the matter. He has had injury and off-the-field issues which raise a yellow flag. For now, I would deem him a bit of a test case and caution the buyer to beware.

3) The Running Back position is making a resurgence in the NFL as I predicted. Throughout the past decade, the NFL was moving towards a committee-based system not out of desire but because of need. As you can see, the lack of high-level Rb prospects entering the league from year after the 2008 season up until the 2016 season is startling. Only 4 stud prospects entered the league from 2009-2015, a talent drought spanning roughly 7 years. For context, 4 stud prospects have entered the league in the past 2 years alone.

4) The new additions to the list this year are Leonard Fournette and D’Onta Foreman. Fournette is the obvious player here but Foreman is a bit of a dark horse just like David Johnson was in 2015. After watching both players tape I can certainly see a path to stardom for both.

5) Players who came within a small margin of error from being added to this list over the years have been Trent Richardson, CJ Spiller, and Lamar Miller. Being included in the Margin of Error group could vary from anywhere between 0-2 1,000 yard rushing seasons.

6) Ryan Mathews and Darren McFadden are the only players on this list who do not have 3 1,000 yard rushing seasons. Since the odds are overwhelming that the players on this list will reach that mark, they make for a good stash provided they can be had for cheap.



Leonard Fournette [Value: Early 1st]
Big powerful runner with athleticism to burn. Sudden, quick-twitch athlete. Not the most agile guy but agile enough. I know there are questions about his passing chops but he looked more than capable to me in all areas. He actually had a College Target Share in the 82% percentile, so despite his reputation for not being very involved in the passing game, he was heavily targeted given the offense he was in. One of the games held against him was versus Alabama in which he averaged a mere 2.1 YPC, however imo he had absolutely nowhere to run and made the best of the running lanes he did get.

Best Comp – Steven Jackson



D’Onta Foreman [Value: Early 1st]
One cut and go runner. Not the most agile guy but fluid moves and cuts. Plays with good leverage, always falling forward and a load to bring down. Good balance, can use his hands to support himself to stay up on a run. Very patient runner with rare burst for his size when he sees daylight. A big guy that can get skinny through small creases. I think his hands are fine, but overall his passing game acumen is a work in progress. Capable of reliably protecting the ball but certainly needs to make it more a point of emphasis. Overall he’s a really young player (just turned 21) with only 1 year experience as a starter in college. I think the last two criticisms of his game are easily correctable with hard work and maturity. Also, he was supposedly playing with a broken hand which may have affected those areas of his game. I don’t really understand where the “finesse” criticisms entered the discussion with regard to Foreman, likely just a high-profile play or two that got blown way out of proportion. As with David Johnson in 2015, Foreman provides great value as a player you can easily snag at any point in the 2nd round. There is no reason not to own this guy.

Best Comp – Arian Foster
This might not make much sense in terms of a numbers to numbers comp, it’s more of an eye-test gut-feeling kind of thing. The way Foreman glides through creases when he runs, always falling forward, and speed to take it to the house really reminds me of a young Arian Foster. Simply put, a really smart and efficient runner. Coincidentally he’s going to the same team where Foster got his start. If this comp is too bold for you, a more straight-forward comp would be a faster version of Eddie Lacy. Foreman does have a lot of work to do just as David Johnson did when he first entered the league. In particular, Foreman needs to work on his passing game skills. Having said that, I believe he has the size, strength, and work ethic to become adept in that area.


__________________________________________________________________________


Tier 2a: Fake Bellcows
2017 – Joe Mixon
2012 – Lamar Miller
2008 – Jonathan Stewart

The players on this list;
-Have a near certainty to rush for 1-2 1,000 seasons.
-Never seem to live up to expectations.


Joe Mixon [Value: Mid-Late-1st]
Good speed and athleticism, average power. Quick feet but not explosive change of direction. Plays with good patience, a little too hesitant at times though. Very capable in the passing game, good routes with good hands. Seems like a capable blocker although did see him get bowled over. Some concerns for me is that we never saw him with a full workload in college. He was actually out-carried by a supposedly less-talented Samaje Perine and Perine played in less games than Mixon did. Mixon is constantly compared to David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, yet both of those players tested practically off the charts in agility drills while Mixon actually tested below average. Both DJ and Bell also put up bellcow workloads in college and Mixon did not. I do believe Mixon will be a good productive player but I don’t know if he will ever live up to the hype or price point.

Best Comp – C.J. Prosise


__________________________________________________________________________



Tier 2b: Flash in the Pan
2014 – Carlos Hyde
2013 – Eddie Lacy
2012 – Trent Richardson
2012 – Doug Martin
2006 – DeAngelo Williams

The players on this list;
-Have a seemingly greater upside than players in Tier 2a but conversely appear to carry a greater downside as well. Three of the players have rushed for multiple 1,000 yard seasons, while the other two have rushed for none.
-Rushed for anywhere between 0-2 1,000 yard seasons.
-Have roughly a 60% chance to rush for 2 1,000 yard seasons.

Notes:
1) The Rb’s on this list generally don’t stay around in the league for long, as evidenced by DeAngelo Williams being the only RB who pre-dates 2012. While they do have good potential for multiple 1,000 yard rushing seasons, their stock can be volatile and often short-lived.

2) D.Will, D.Martin, E.Lacy all have rushed for 2 1,000 yard seasons, meaning in all likelihood they are maxed out.

3) The odds are in Hydes favor to rush for 1-2 1,000 yard seasons (he currently has zero). I think that might make him an intriguing buy-low if the price is right. On the contrary, I would temper expectations for the much hyped Joe Williams.

4) No player from 2017 qualified for this list, although Perine came within the margin of error. He would make for a good stash in rookie drafts if it weren’t for his 1st round price tag, which seems to ignore much of his inherent risk. I think there are better bets in his price range that are less risky, have greater upside and better chance for longevity.


__________________________________________________________________________


Tier 3: The Dart Throw
2017 – Kareem Hunt
2016 – Jordan Howard
2016 – Alex Collins
2016 – Kenneth Dixon
2015 – Jay Ajayi
2015 – Thomas Rawls
2015 – Zach Zenner
2014 – Isaiah Crowell
2014 – Terrance Cobb
2011 – Mark Ingram
2009 – Knowshon Moreno
2008 – Jalen Parmele
2008 – BenJarvis Green-Ellis

The players on this list;
-Overall have about a 40% chance of rushing for a single 1,000 yard season, however the odds become exponentially greater the more highly they’re drafted. Both 1st round picks have a 1,000 yard rushing season.
-Overall have about a 60% chance of becoming relevant and valued highly at some point during their career.
-Have anywhere between 0-2 1,000 yard rushing seasons.

Notes:
1) There will always be outliers, however this is my attempt to catch some of them at a percentage that is actually useful to fantasy football owners. Getting a hit rate of about 50% when targeting mid-late round and undrafted players is pretty good imo. Considering their price, you could likely round most if not all of them up in any given year and it’s almost a given you’ll make your money back and then some.

2) On the flip side, when you see highly drafted players on this list that isn’t exactly a good thing. While it’s likely they’ll be somewhat productive, the odds are it won’t be anything close to what you were expecting and they’re far more likely to be labeled a bust than a hit. Ingram and Moreno were the 1st round picks on this list, and while they did each post a single thousand yard rushing season each, I think most people were expecting more.


Kareem Hunt [Value: Late-1st to 2nd round]
Technically sound, no-nonsense downhill runner. Limited burst and explosion but shifty enough. Makes up for his limited athleticism with natural instincts and feel for the game. Very solid in all areas of the passing game. Strong compact runner who rarely goes down on first contact. My best guess is Hunt was not brought in to replace Ware but perhaps siphon off a few carries here and there and potentially play most of the passing downs. Kereem Hunt’s College Target Share was in the 74th percentile while Spencer Ware’s was in the 36th percentile. If Ware were to underperform or go down due to injury, Hunt does possess a 3-down skillset necessary to shoulder the load.

Best Comp – Kenneth Dixon


__________________________________________________________________________


Tier 4: Reliable Pass Catchers
2015 – Duke Johnson
2014 – Bishop Sankey
2013 – Giovani Bernard
2011 – Shane Vereen
2008 – Danny Woodhead
2005 – Darren Sproles

The players on this list;
-Have a 67% chance of having 2 seasons of 50+ receptions
-Have an 80% chance of having 3 seasons of 40+ receptions
-None have a single 1,000 yard rushing season

Notes:
1) I thought for a long time how to find a way to identify productive pass-catching running backs in the NFL and I believe I finally found it. Sure, some will fall through the cracks, Theo Riddick being an example of that. However, the ones identified appear to have a good track record of productivity and longevity meaning they should hold their value for a long time and might make for a worthwhile investment at the right price.
2) These players are a very rare but durable breed. They might not rack up the rushing yardage but could be valuable assets in PPR leagues. They stay in the league for a long time as evidenced by half the list being from 5+ years ago and nearly 2 players from 10+ years ago.
3) Gio Bernard currently has 1 50+ reception season. It’s more likely than not that he will have another, which might cap Mixon’s upside in that offense.
4) If you relax the requirements to qualify for this list by the smallest of margins, just a single name pops up; Aaron Jones. I would deem him a test case. Given his low price, I think he makes for a quality stash. It won’t cost much to find out.



Aaron Jones
Not the biggest guy but willing and capable to grind it out between the tackles, although probably not his ideal game. One cut and go runner. Has the agility and burst to turn the corner. Plays well in the passing game. Think of him as a less powerful but more athletic version of Kareem Hunt. Ty Montgomery only had 1 game of 10+ carries last season, he is far from a proven asset at the RB position. Judging from Aaron Jones’s profile and film, he’s a guy capable of being a 3-down player, or at the very least adequately filling the Ty Montgomery roll if Ty were to get hurt or under-perform. The Packers depth chart is wide open right now, Jones has as good a shot as any of those players to become “the guy” this season.

Best Comp – Duke Johnson


__________________________________________________________________________



The High-Priced Misfits


Dalvin Cook
Completely unremarkable and over-hyped in every way imaginable. Relies on good blocking, has a hard time creating on his own. It’s been said that his tape is “amazing” but I didn’t see that at all. Months ago, before the combine, I watched 4 games of his and wrote literally nothing down because there was nothing to write about. He’s completely average and underwhelming. He does have enough speed to take advantage of good blocking and punish poor angles of pursuit by the defense, but that will only get you so far in the NFL. The Melvin Gordon of this draft class. Does that mean he won’t produce or won’t be valuable? Not all all. Highly drafted RB’s will be given every opportunity to succeed, the aforementioned inefficient Melvin Gordon being a prime example of this.

Best Comp – Tevin Coleman




Christian McCaffery
Hesitant between the tackles when there is traffic, runs with little power. Good player in space. Ok, I’m just going to stop here because [Hot Take Incoming!] I’m not even convinced he’ll be a RB in the NFL. How many times have we heard “I think CMC was the best WR at the combine!” And you know what, maybe he was. Maybe he’s a WR. I don’t pay much attention to the bench press, but there does seem to be some minimum level of core strength that you need to have in order to be a successful RB in the NFL. I won’t go into all the details, but I will say this. CMC put up a laughably bad 10 bench reps at the combine. Out of a list of 370 players, CMC did worse than everyone except Trey Watts and Donnel Pumphrey. CMC is in the 0th percentile for bench press. For reference, the 13 bench rep mark is the first time you see an actual real live productive NFL RB appear. I can envision a scenario in which CMC is not even labeled as a RB in a few years. Bottom line is, I’m not even sure CMC is a RB so he’s essentially out of my jurisdiction.

Best Comp – Taiwan Jones

__________________________________________________________________________


The Outliers
-Arian Foster
-LeSean McCoy
-Frank Gore

Players with 3+ 1,000 yard rushing seasons that did not qualify for the Tier 1 Stud list. As previously stated, certain players are bound to slip through the cracks. I will point out that all three players didn't work out at the combine (I don't think that is merely a coincidence), so pro-day times had to be used which are inherently more unreliable. Admittedly, Foster and Gore likely still would have been outliers no matter when or where they tested. However, I firmly believe that if LeSean McCoy was healthy and participated at the combine that he would have qualified for the Tier 1 list.

__________________________________________________________________________


So that's it. Based on this data, the rookie Rb's should be ranked something like this;

1) Fournette
2) Foreman
3) Mixon
4) Hunt

I know it seems absolutely silly, but go back to 2015 when it seemed the height of absurdity to rank David Johnson above Melvin Gordon, TJ Yeldon, and whoever else. I personally would stay away from Dalvin Cook and CMC for the price you'll have to pay (early-mid 1st) since there are safer options available later. That said, CMC could certainly be a productive PPR asset, unfortunately there's simply no way for me to measure the likelihood of that happening. Aaron Jones makes a pretty low-cost dart throw as a PPR back on a high powered Green Bay offense. I'm burnt out now, but it's possible I'll come back later and add in a few nuggets of additional info. Hope everyone was able to garner at least a little useful information from this report. Thanks again to the people who donated, couldn't have made a report this detailed without you guys.



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Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Sun May 21, 2017 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Servo » Sun May 21, 2017 1:29 pm

Cheers DD, thanks for the time an effort (and thank you as well to the donators).

Glad to see I'm not crazy in believing Foreman can be a freaking stud!
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby pvillebiker » Sun May 21, 2017 1:53 pm

wow, this is seriously awesome stuff! Got me totally rethinking Foreman now. Just curious, what do you make of Foreman showing up to Texans camp out of shape, per the head coach? Could just be motivational tactic. Not a good starting point (ala Jaelen Strong's rookie year) and could be a big red flag... or not. Thank you DD for buffet of thought! Will surely take a while to digest this feast.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Concept Coop » Sun May 21, 2017 1:57 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 1:08 pm
Dalvin Cook
Completely unremarkable and over-hyped in every way imaginable. Relies on good blocking, has a hard time creating on his own. It’s been said that his tape is “amazing” but I didn’t see that at all. Months ago, before the combine, I watched 4 games of his and wrote literally nothing down because there was nothing to write about. He’s completely average and underwhelming. He does have enough speed to take advantage of good blocking and punish poor angles of pursuit by the defense, but that will only get you so far in the NFL. The Melvin Gordon of this draft class. Does that mean he won’t produce or won’t be valuable? Not all all. Highly drafted RB’s will be given every opportunity to succeed, the aforementioned inefficient Melvin Gordon being a prime example of this.
I don't think I could disagree more with this. Cook has his warts, but the tape is not one of them. How did he have a hard time "creating his own" when he lead the double A in elusive rating and YAC (overall and per carry)--and broke 99 tackles on less than 300 carries?

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby flexcapacitor » Sun May 21, 2017 2:15 pm

Very good stuff DeLorean....I look forward to reading this every year.
Foreman - I can see where he is called a "finesse" player because he doesn't play with as much power as you think he would.
McCaffrey - I really hope you wrong on him, I can definitely see why Cook is in that tier.
Kamara - you must really not like him if he's not even mentioned?

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby TTHTD » Sun May 21, 2017 2:16 pm

Out of curiosity, where do Cook and McCaffrey rank on you tiers? I'm confused as to why they are excluded from being ranked even though they have combine numbers and college production and apparently that is what you need to rank them? I'm also curious what you find to be the most important metric in scouting for elite RBs since the guys you seem to have predicted are all over the board in terms of size/athleticism/college production/draft position.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby jcc6fd » Sun May 21, 2017 2:36 pm

Foreman is my man in the early second now! Thanks DD!
10 Team Standard Scoring: 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1Flex DST K
QB: Super Cam, Smith, Mahommes
RB: Fournette, Cook, Crowell, D Murray, Rawls, Woodhead, McGuire, Gore
WR: OBJ, TY, Cooks, K. Allen, D. Adams, JMatt, Mitchell, Dede, T. Taylor
TE: Kelce, Ebron, Everett, Jonnu
DST: Denver

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Vcize » Sun May 21, 2017 2:41 pm

Awesome stuff. Really glad to see it as Fournette, Foreman (especially), and Hunt are the rookie RBs I invested most in this offseason. Here's hoping your track record stays as good as its been!
Team 1 (12 team standard, q/r/r/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Brees, Dak
RB: Bell, D Johnson, Fournette, Lynch, Peterson, Conner, Foreman, Drake, Hightower
WR: Brown, Diggs, Dez, Lockett
TE: Gronk, Graham
K: Tucker
Def: Jags, Texans

Team 2 (12 team PPR TE Premium, q/r/r/w/w/f/f/t/k/d)
QB: Luck, Wentz, Garropolo
RB: Hunt, Ajayi, Thompson, White, Foreman, Charles, Rodgers
WR: Beckham, Cooks, ARob, Benjamin, Moncrief, Richardson, Amendola
TE: Fiedorowicz, Watson, Miller, Fells
K: Lutz
Def: Denver

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun May 21, 2017 2:56 pm

pvillebiker wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 1:53 pm
Just curious, what do you make of Foreman showing up to Texans camp out of shape, per the head coach? Could just be motivational tactic. Not a good starting point (ala Jaelen Strong's rookie year) and could be a big red flag... or not.
Well, it's not a good thing! Jaelen Strong had a lot of problems with his game though, being overweight isn't why he's been a bust. Routes needed work, hands needed work. I mean, that's pretty much the 2 basic things you need to be a good WR lol.

flexcapacitor wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:15 pm
Very good stuff DeLorean....I look forward to reading this every year.
Foreman - I can see where he is called a "finesse" player because he doesn't play with as much power as you think he would.
McCaffrey - I really hope you wrong on him, I can definitely see why Cook is in that tier.
Kamara - you must really not like him if he's not even mentioned?
Foreman - Certain playstyles are very attractive to the human eye. Jonathan Williams, for example, was full-go 100% at all times in college. Now it certainly is pleasing to the eye, but it's not quite the smartest way to play. And it hasn't exactly worked out for him in the NFL so far, small sample size but 3.5 YPC is not a good start. You want your RB to be patient, to set up their blocks, and THEN go full speed ahead. Which is exactly how Foreman plays. He could have looked very powerful running into the backs of his own lineman I suppose, but that would have been stupid.

McCaffery - The only thing I'm sure about is that he's probably not going to be much of a rusher. But most people realize this anyway so I don't think this is anything new.

Kamara - Well, he wasn't one of the early-1st round rb's with regard to rookie adp and he didn't make it onto any of the lists, so he was a bit down my list to do a write-up on. I really don't have an opinion one way or the other except to say he shouldn't be drafted ahead of Foreman and he probably shouldn't be drafted ahead of Hunt.


TTHTD wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:16 pm
Out of curiosity, where do Cook and McCaffrey rank on you tiers? I'm confused as to why they are excluded from being ranked
Not interested at drafting them at their price point so what's the point in even ranking them. I suppose to answer your question a little better, the rankings are mainly based off the lists I provided. If they don't make it onto any of the lists (particularly the 1st one, and maybe the 2nd), it's more or less a complete crapshoot as to whether they'll be any good or not. Kind of hard to rank what you don't know.

Concept Coop wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 1:57 pm
I don't think I could disagree more with this. Cook has his warts, but the tape is not one of them. How did he have a hard time "creating his own" when he lead the double A in elusive rating and YAC (overall and per carry)--and broke 99 tackles on less than 300 carries?
So I keep hearing!

Wasn't Sankey super elusive in the NFL, and the guy has been a complete bust.

Ah yes, here it is
Sankey forced a whopping 29 missed tackles on the ground, and he was tenth in the NFL in “elusive rating” which uses missed tackles forced and yards after contact to measure how well a running back did without help from his blockers; it also adjusts for carries, which is definitely important for someone like Sankey. He was also tied for 14th in the league with 2.51 yards after contact per carry, so that also helped him crack the top-ten in PFF’s elusive rating, which is something worth praising. Sadly, elusive rating isn’t the best predictor of success in the NFL, and the best way to illustrate this is to mention a certain running back in the division- I think you know what’s coming.

Indianapolis Colts running back Trent Richardson has consistently been among the league leaders in missed tackles forced, yards after contact, and elusive rating, and yet he’s consistently one of the worst running backs in the NFL when it comes to actual production. Playing the running back position effectively is about much more than making defenders miss or skill.



________________________________________________________________________


Vcize wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:41 pm
Awesome stuff. Really glad to see it as Fournette, Foreman (especially), and Hunt are the rookie RBs I invested most in this offseason. Here's hoping your track record stays as good as its been!
Great, so no pressure then :(

TTHTD wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:16 pm
I'm also curious what you find to be the most important metric in scouting for elite RBs since the guys you seem to have predicted are all over the board in terms of size/athleticism/college production/draft position.
Hmmm, i'm sure you could find a trend if you looked hard enough :ewink:
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Sun May 21, 2017 3:09 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby SpartacusPTech » Sun May 21, 2017 3:02 pm

Thanks for the hard work DD. Drafted Foreman just before I read this. I like his style, let's hope we are both right
16 team 1ppr
D. Brees, Hoyer
Dez, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, DT , Willie Snead, Larry Fitz
C. Hyde, T. Rawls, McKinnon, Collins, McGuire, Pumphrey
Ertz, Walker, Watson
LB: R. Shazier, B. Marshall, R. Humber, N. Vigil
DL: C. Heyward, M. Bennett, A. Hicks
DB: Harrison Smith, Peters, Hyde, Grimes, Byard, Farley

Team 2 Orphan Rebuild (2016)
16 Team 0.5 ppr
QB:Garoppolo/Simien/Kizer/Beathard
RB:Henry/Mixon/Dixon/Foreman/McGuire/Tolbert/
WR:Mike Williams/Juju/C. Godwin/Chad Williams/Seth Roberts/Jaron Brown/P. Cooper
TE: Nkoju/Fiedorowicz/Gathers
DST:49ers
K: Gould
2018 Picks: 1,1,1,3,3

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby Concept Coop » Sun May 21, 2017 3:10 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:56 pm
Wasn't Sankey super elusive in the NFL, and the guy has been a complete bust.

Ah yes, here it is "Sankey forced a whopping 29 missed tackles on the ground, and he was tenth in the NFL in “elusive rating” which uses missed tackles forced and yards after contact to measure how well a running back did without help from his blockers; it also adjusts for carries, which is definitely important for someone like Sankey. He was also tied for 14th in the league with 2.51 yards after contact per carry, so that also helped him crack the top-ten in PFF’s elusive rating, which is something worth praising. Sadly, elusive rating isn’t the best predictor of success in the NFL, and the best way to illustrate this is to mention a certain running back in the division- I think you know what’s coming.
This is a straw man. If your argument is that missed tackles, YAC, and elusive rating don't correlate to NFL success, I'm certainly open to have that conversation. But you suggested Cook got what was blocked for him and had trouble creating his own yards. I have a hard time buying that argument when he did more outside of his offensive line than anyone else in the nation.

ETA: And he didn't just make people miss. He put up 6.5 YPC in his career, broke out as a freshman, broke FSU's career yardage mark in 3 seasons, rushed for 1K each year, and scored 48 times.
Last edited by Concept Coop on Sun May 21, 2017 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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lukkynumber13
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby lukkynumber13 » Sun May 21, 2017 3:11 pm

I play in 3 leagues, and was able to get Foreman in 2 of them, so I'm happy!

Also had to take take SOMEONE at the dreaded 1.07 spot yesterday, and settled on Hunt. I hope he hits!
Last edited by lukkynumber13 on Sun May 21, 2017 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
T1
ELI, Flacco
ZEKE/LYNCH, Foreman, Ellington, Darkwa, D Williams, M Jones, Yeldon
WATKINS/ALSHON/THIELEN/MACLIN, J-Matt, Wallace, Humphries, Dorsett, Rudolph, Hansen (AROB/Marshall)
KELCE, Engram, Watson, Shaheen, Maxx
-
DL: JORDAN/FLOWERS/ANSAH, Hughes, Addison, Short, M Jackson, Okafor
LB: CUNNINGHAM/GOODSON/E KENDRICKS, N Vigil, Schobert, James, Morrison, Simon, Nick K, C. Jones, Pullard (FREEMAN)
DB: ADDAE, FARLEY, POYER, Maye, Heath, Amos, Simmons

T2
MARIOTA, Cousins, Rivers, Colt
GORDON/GURLEY/AJAYI, Mixon, Gore, T West, Hill, D Williams, Dayes, M Jones
DEZ/CRABS/DIGGS, Fitz, Parker, Pryor, M Bryant, J-Matt, T Smith, Wallace, Zay, Rudolph, Strong (AROB, Meredith)
DOYLE, Engram, Watson, Swoope, Dickson
-
DL: GRIFFEN/BUCKNER/HEYWARD, Leo W, Wilkerson, Ogbah, Okafor, Zettel, Tomlinson, Covington, Dumervil
LB: WRIGHT/GOODSON/SIMON/KIKO, Klein, Ford, Humber, McPhee, C Jones, Judon, K Robinson, Scarlett, Pullard
DB: CHURCH/WARD/ADDAE, T Wilson, Simmons, Farley, C Davis

ImaRounder
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby ImaRounder » Sun May 21, 2017 3:14 pm

Awesome stuff, DD. Really appreciate it.

I do however hope you're wrong about Cook since I took him at 1.02 after I took Fournette at 1.01.

Regardless of opinions, the time and effort you put in can't be ignored. I'll speak for everyone when I say thank you.

TTHTD
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby TTHTD » Sun May 21, 2017 3:35 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:56 pm
TTHTD wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:16 pm
Out of curiosity, where do Cook and McCaffrey rank on you tiers? I'm confused as to why they are excluded from being ranked
Not interested at drafting them at their price point so what's the point in even ranking them. I suppose to answer your question a little better, the rankings are mainly based off the lists I provided. If they don't make it onto any of the lists (particularly the 1st one, and maybe the 2nd), it's more or less a complete crapshoot as to whether they'll be any good or not. Kind of hard to rank what you don't know.
TTHTD wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:16 pm
I'm also curious what you find to be the most important metric in scouting for elite RBs since the guys you seem to have predicted are all over the board in terms of size/athleticism/college production/draft position.
Hmmm, i'm sure you could find a trend if you looked hard enough :ewink:
The thing that throws me off is that your system seems to have predicted Jamaal Charles even though he was very undersized and picked in the 3rd round yet excluded Christian McCaffrey. If all you're putting in is college stats and physical/combine metrics it seems unlikely JC gets to tier 1 and CMC doesn't even make a list. If CMC skipped bench press like JC he'd have an equal or better combined athletic profile for an RB and has superior college production and slightly better size. Just seems inconsistent. I think you're wrong about CMC, but you've definitely peaked my interest about Foreman and Hunt and I appreciate you putting all the work you did into this list. Good stuff.

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Re: 2017 Running Back Report

Postby kmbryant09 » Sun May 21, 2017 4:34 pm

Awesome awesome stuff, thank you!

Any notes you can share on Marlon Mack? I'm a fan of his tape and athleticism and trying to acquire him everywhere i can.

Thanks!
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: T. Brady, C. Wentz, K. Cousins
RB: T. Gurley, C.J. Anderson, A. Abdullah, Gio Bernard, T. Rawls, M. Mack, W. Smallwood
WR: J. Jones, M. Thomas, D. Thomas, A. Jeffrey, S. Watkins, P. Garcon, M. Lee, L.Treadwell
TE: T. Kelce, J. Doyle

2018: 2nd, 3rd, 4th


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