2017 Value Plays

[Madadamus]

Playing in dynasty obviously means you are taking a long term approach to valuing players (at least most of us do anyway). But sometimes you need those extra couple of pieces that will be helpful for the upcoming season, not necessarily a cornerstone player for your franchise. What are some guys that have legit top 24 upside at their position, but usually won't cost more than a mid 2nd. Here's a couple of guys that come to mind:

Bilal Powell: He took over towards the end of last season and Forte simply ran out of gas. While it will definitely be a committee to start the year, I think Powell could again be another league winner. Approximate cost: late 2nd/early 3rd.

Mike Gillislee: Yes, Patriot running backs are hard to rely on, but we've seen the power back be more predictable since there is only 1 of them. Obviously, you will get that game where the Patriots just want to throw 50 times and create mis-matches with their new weapons, but the offense scores points and is consistently sniffing the end zone. The Law-Firm, Ridley, and Blount have had fantasy success and Gillislee fits that role. The Patriots not only signed him to decent money, but in doing so gave up a 5th round pick. I expect a Blount-lite type season out of Gillislee this year, maybe sniffing close to 1000 yards but should be locked in close to double digit TD's. Approximate cost: late 2nd

Willie Snead: A solid FLEX play the past couple of years could lead to even more production this year with the exit of Brandin Cooks. He went undrafted and that's the only reason you can get a discount on a starting WR for a Sean Payton offense with Drew Brees. He should finally have a chance to easily get over the 1000 yard mark and rack up at least 80 or so receptions. Approximate cost: Early-to-mid 2nd

John Brown: Slowed by injuries and sickle cell trait, we get a chance to buy a legit WR2 in a strong offense at a discount. While Floyd was the prototypical outside receiver, Brown can work inside and outside with Fitzgerald still hanging around. He'll be Palmer's best deep threat option, and he's in a contract year so I expect a bounce back year. Approximate cost: Mid 2nd

Mike Wallace: The Ravens have been amongst the league leaders in passing attempts the past couple of years, but in many early rankings don't have a receiver in the top 35. While Perriman also has a chance to break out, Wallace has the safer path in 2017 with Smith retiring. He put up 1000 yards last year as primarily a deep threat, but he should also be a safety valve for Flacco in 2017. Approximate cost: Early-to-mid 3rd.

There's a lot more names out there, but I'll save some for you guys. So what say you? Who has a chance to severely outperform their current value in 2017?

[Concept Coop]

Jack Doyle comes to mind. I expect TE1 numbers.

A bit more obvious and expensive, but Crabtree. He'll be picked next to guys like Dez and Thomas in re-draft.

I second Snead.

I'd throw Larry Fitzgerald in there as well.

ETA: Theo Riddick, Big Ben.

[wingnutty]

I agree, but think your valuations for what those guys will cost is low.

I dont think most guys will trade powell for a late 2nd at this point, it'll take more. Maybe John Brown for an early 2nd, but not very often still, imo.
Doubt you'd find wallace for a mid-late third.

I dont think I'd pay more than those prices, but nobody in any of my leagues are really selling for those kinds of prices, unfortunately.

[Vcize]

Bilal Powell: He took over towards the end of last season and Forte simply ran out of gas. While it will definitely be a committee to start the year, I think Powell could again be another league winner. Approximate cost: late 2nd/early 3rd.

I like Powell this year, but I think "ran out of gas" is kind of misleading for Forte. He had a knee injury, it's not like he became ineffective and got benched. Powell's first game with double digit carries last year was the game Forte left early with an injury.

I think Powell will be the head of the timeshare this year, but people seem to be characterizing it as if that's what already happened at the end of last year, when really it wasn't. Hopefully the Jets are smart enough to see that he's the better back at this point.

[Cowboysfan33]

I agree with mostly all of the list, especially Powell and John Brown. I've been drafting John Brown in every startup that I can get a chance to because from everything I'm reading, that cyst that they found on his spine, has been drained and they are saying that he's back to his normal self, if it's true, he could be a huge value this season. A few other players that I like that are pretty cheap:

Pierre Garçon: I've drafted him in the 11th round in one round and 12th in another startup and I'm also holding him in two other leagues because he should get a bunch of targets in 49ers offense that doesn't have alot of talent and should be playing from behind a lot.

Kamar Aiken: I've also drafted him in a couple of startups, he can be had very late as well. As much talent that Moncrief has, he's been injured a lot and is still unreliable to a certain extent. Aiken has proven to be a solid player with the Ravens and it Moncrief doesn't stay healthy, Aiken could easily be getting a lot of targets. He should still get quite a few anyway, if he's the #3 WR, which he should have a good chance for that spot.

[Concept Coop]

John Brown.

Pierre Garçon:

I like Garcon for this list as well.

Can you guys sell me on John Brown? I have done 0 research on his health issues, but why do we expect him to improve over his 2016 play? Opportunity is one thing, but he just wasn't the same guy. I was burnt last year, and as we don't have any comps, I've essentially written him off. But again, that's not really based on anything concrete, so I'm certainly open to being persuaded.

[Cowboysfan33]

John Brown.

Pierre Garçon:

I like Garcon for this list as well.

Can you guys sell me on John Brown? I have done 0 research on his health issues, but why do we expect him to improve over his 2016 play? Opportunity is one thing, but he just wasn't the same guy. I was burnt last year, and as we don't have any comps, I've essentially written him off. But again, that's not really based on anything concrete, so I'm certainly open to being persuaded.

He has sickle cell, so from what I've read, they thought that was causing most of his problems. He wasn't able to workout much, not much appetite, etc. This offseason, I've read in a couple of places, one story on this website, that the doctors found a cyst on his spine, which sounds terrible but they drained it and he says that he feels great, the best that's he's felt in years. The way I'm understanding it, the doctors are saying that's where most of his problems were coming from. So, we'll see, I wouldn't go out spending any top pick on him but personally, I've just got him later on, in some startups so now, I'm just hoping that what I'm reading about him is true. Also, like Madadamus said, he's in a contract year too, so that could be a good thing.

[Cameron Giles]

Players that come to mind:

Ameer Abdullah - 5.25 YPC in 8 games under JB Cooter. Labeled injury prone after 2016, even though he never missed a game in college and played all his 16 games as a rookie. Cheap RB2.

Pierre Garcon - Likely to see 100 targets again, in an offense he's familiar with. Cheap PPR-WR3 play.

John Brown - Devalued because of the cyst in his back and sickle cell trait. Likely back to his old ways this season.

Ted Ginn - 44/739/10 with Cam a year ago. Now he's playing 8 games in a dome, and catching from the league's best deep ball QB. Could easily benefit from the attention Michael Thomas and Willie Snead get.

Eric Decker - 80/1027/12 a year ago with Fitzpatrick. McCown is of similar caliber and the Jets are thin on proven options. Decker is a safe bet for a 100+ targets if he's healthy.

Adam Thielen - Minnesota quietly gave Thielen about $10M guaranteed in the offseason. Still may be affordable in some leagues.

Marvin Jones - He wasn't good after his first 4 games, but him and Golden Tate are still the Top 2 options in an offense that usually airs it out a lot. WR2 upside if he can get back on the same page with Stafford.

[Pac_Eddy]

Mike Wallace is growing on me as a value play. With Steve Smith Sr retiring, he's the #1 WR in Baltimore.

Lagarrette Blount will be a nice value if the Eagles release Ryan Mathews. Word on the street is Mathews will get released once he passes his physical.

Danny Woodhead always seems to be cheap. He'll be active in Baltimore with that new $3.25 million first year contract.

[Concept Coop]

Good lists. Really like Decker and Blount. Thanks and keep them coming.

[Goddard]

Lacy comes to mind outside of the players that have already been named. Can probably be had pretty cheap, but has potential to put up RB2 numbers.

[DinoDynasty]

Manny Sanders, you can get him for a early 2nd, hes put up b2b2b top 25 finishes.

[abecksta]

Marqise Lee- If the owner is asleep I bet you can get him very cheaply. Think he has an outside chance of being the Jags best receiver, especially if had a good offseason and comes to camp ready to go. Even if he only has the numbers he had last year he's usable in ppr. He is in the last year of his contract and with a good season his value would skyrocket between now and 2018.

Randall Cobb- I know he hasn't been great like some of us thought but people are treating him like garbage. He's still young (27 when the season starts) and has a WR1 celling with a flex floor in PPR leagues at least. Not sure what it takes to get him but it is worth sending some offers and seeing if you can steal a valuable piece.

Chad Williams- Easy to get in rookie drafts. Has a chance of seeing the field this year, and at least a small percentage chance of him doing what people expect out of John Brown. In any event, he certainly looks like he has the physical ability to exceed his current value by a ton, as soon as this season, and gets to learn from one of the masters of the position for a year. Get him while his value is at it's lowest.

Robert Turbin- Think he has a CHANCE of playing often enough to make it worth having him on your roster. More or less free.

Lance Dunbar- Showed good ability with the Cowboys but couldn't find the field with Zeke in town. Could have better luck earning a role complementing Gurley in LA. With Mcvay in town he could prove to be useful in PPR leagues ala Chris Thompson. Also, more or less free.

Martellus Bennet- Probably the cheapest TE with elite upside. Think he has no problem finishing as a TE1 as long as he is in GB and stays healthy. I would bet we see a double digit touchdown season or several before his career is over. Might be hard to get from a contender but rebuilding teams will probably be ecstatic to get rid of him.

[sugbear65]

Some of the best value plays are probably RBs that had a rookie drafted at their position who is now guaranteed to come in and supplant the vet. Some names would be-
S. Ware
C. Hyde
J. Stewart
J. Hill/Gio Bernard
L. Murray/J. McKinnon
C. Ivory/ Yeldon
Ty Montgomery
Maybe L. Miller, M. Ingram

[Seventy5]

QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Ameer Abdullah
RB: Danny Woodhead
WR: DeSean Jackson
WR: Mike Wallace+Breshad Perriman
WR: Eric Decker
TE: Eric Ebron

Flex: Eddie Lacy