2017 Value Plays

[stoneghost28]

What are some guys that have legit top 24 upside at their position, but usually won't cost more than a mid 2nd. Here's a couple of guys that come to mind:

Bilal Powell: He took over towards the end of last season and Forte simply ran out of gas. While it will definitely be a committee to start the year, I think Powell could again be another league winner. Approximate cost: late 2nd/early 3rd.

Mike Gillislee: Yes, Patriot running backs are hard to rely on, but we've seen the power back be more predictable since there is only 1 of them. Obviously, you will get that game where the Patriots just want to throw 50 times and create mis-matches with their new weapons, but the offense scores points and is consistently sniffing the end zone. ...

Willie Snead: A solid FLEX play the past couple of years could lead to even more production this year with the exit of Brandin Cooks. He went undrafted and that's the only reason you can get a discount on a starting WR for a Sean Payton offense with Drew Brees. He should finally have a chance to easily get over the 1000 yard mark and rack up at least 80 or so receptions. Approximate cost: Early-to-mid 2nd

John Brown: Slowed by injuries and sickle cell trait, we get a chance to buy a legit WR2 in a strong offense at a discount. While Floyd was the prototypical outside receiver, Brown can work inside and outside with Fitzgerald still hanging around. He'll be Palmer's best deep threat option, and he's in a contract year so I expect a bounce back year. Approximate cost: Mid 2nd

Mike Wallace: The Ravens have been amongst the league leaders in passing attempts the past couple of years, but in many early rankings don't have a receiver in the top 35. While Perriman also has a chance to break out, Wallace has the safer path in 2017 with Smith retiring. He put up 1000 yards last year as primarily a deep threat, but he should also be a safety valve for Flacco in 2017. Approximate cost: Early-to-mid 3rd.

There's a lot more names out there, but I'll save some for you guys. So what say you? Who has a chance to severely outperform their current value in 2017?

John Brown: Current ADP is an early 9th, as far as I'm aware, early 9th's tend to equate with very early 2nd rounders or late 1st's and what do you know, the rookie's selected between where John Brown goes are currently Njoku and Hunt, basically the 1/2 turn of rookie drafts.

Willie Snead: Current ADP is an early 6th rounder. That's a late 1st based on typical trade calculators, and he currently sits between Mike Williams (41st) and OJ Howard (70th) at 68th overall, essentially right at 1.7 overall. That's actually a bit overvalued for my tastes considering how much of his value is tied into situation. If you're making a run for title this year, and are really close, then sure, but otherwise I'm disinclined to do that.

Mike Gillislie: Current ADP is early 12th, that's a late 2nd rounder, and he's sitting between Carlos Henderson and Jamaal Williams.

Mike Wallace: Current ADP is 13.12 in a start up, sitting between Marlon Mack and Wayne Gallman, compensation would be an early 3rd.

Bilal Powell: Current ADP is identical to Gillislie's, early 12th, that's a late 2nd as it is for Mike G.

To me the only values here are the RB's, Powell and Gillislie.

The best way to judge players that make sense there is to list the players selected between say where the rookies slotted in at 2.4-2.12 in rookie drafts go correspondingly in start ups.

The vets that go there are inbetween 112 and 156 in start ups and strike me as potential value plays are (i might have miscounted as I'm busy, but that's the area for the most part, if I'm wrong, I'm off by one player):

Treadwell: This is the last time he's inbetween being cheap and being free, if he is horrible again this year, he'll be free next year, but if he starts to show signs, his ADP will climb. It's an at your own risk proposition.

Gio Bernard: His ADP has basically collapsed, plunging almost exactly where he was at a year ago (around 60 slots). Bengals probably cut him before the '19 season, maybe earlier.

Marvin Jones: Really cheap play at this point.

K. Cousins: Last year he's this cheap if he stays in Washington.

Matthew Stafford: Quite affordable.

K. Britt: kinda surprised he's this cheap after last year.

Powell/Mike G: Don't get why they're that cheap.

Jack Doyle: No young TE coming in, so it's him or swope in a great offense.

C. Wentz: Reasonably cheap for a potential franchise guy.

M. Lee: is last year a sign that he's a kind of slightly poor man's snead, or just a flash in the pan?

Andy Dalton: Always a great cheap option at QB, especially in MFL 10's.

Q. Enunwa: Could be a breakout.

P. Rivers: A gazillion weapons, a great add for teams trying to win it all.

CJ Fieodorowicz: Nice fill in TE.

[stoneghost28]

What are some guys that have legit top 24 upside at their position, but usually won't cost more than a mid 2nd. Here's a couple of guys that come to mind:

Bilal Powell: He took over towards the end of last season and Forte simply ran out of gas. While it will definitely be a committee to start the year, I think Powell could again be another league winner. Approximate cost: late 2nd/early 3rd.

Mike Gillislee: Yes, Patriot running backs are hard to rely on, but we've seen the power back be more predictable since there is only 1 of them. Obviously, you will get that game where the Patriots just want to throw 50 times and create mis-matches with their new weapons, but the offense scores points and is consistently sniffing the end zone. ...

Willie Snead: A solid FLEX play the past couple of years could lead to even more production this year with the exit of Brandin Cooks. He went undrafted and that's the only reason you can get a discount on a starting WR for a Sean Payton offense with Drew Brees. He should finally have a chance to easily get over the 1000 yard mark and rack up at least 80 or so receptions. Approximate cost: Early-to-mid 2nd

John Brown: Slowed by injuries and sickle cell trait, we get a chance to buy a legit WR2 in a strong offense at a discount. While Floyd was the prototypical outside receiver, Brown can work inside and outside with Fitzgerald still hanging around. He'll be Palmer's best deep threat option, and he's in a contract year so I expect a bounce back year. Approximate cost: Mid 2nd

Mike Wallace: The Ravens have been amongst the league leaders in passing attempts the past couple of years, but in many early rankings don't have a receiver in the top 35. While Perriman also has a chance to break out, Wallace has the safer path in 2017 with Smith retiring. He put up 1000 yards last year as primarily a deep threat, but he should also be a safety valve for Flacco in 2017. Approximate cost: Early-to-mid 3rd.

There's a lot more names out there, but I'll save some for you guys. So what say you? Who has a chance to severely outperform their current value in 2017?

John Brown: Current ADP is an early 9th, as far as I'm aware, early 9th's tend to equate with very early 2nd rounders or late 1st's and what do you know, the rookie's selected between where John Brown goes are currently Njoku and Hunt, basically the 1/2 turn of rookie drafts.

Willie Snead: Current ADP is an early 6th rounder. That's a late 1st based on typical trade calculators, and he currently sits between Mike Williams (41st) and OJ Howard (70th) at 68th overall, essentially right at 1.7 overall. That's actually a bit overvalued for my tastes considering how much of his value is tied into situation. If you're making a run for title this year, and are really close, then sure, but otherwise I'm disinclined to do that.

Mike Gillislie: Current ADP is early 12th, that's a late 2nd rounder, and he's sitting between Carlos Henderson and Jamaal Williams.

Mike Wallace: Current ADP is 13.12 in a start up, sitting between Marlon Mack and Wayne Gallman, compensation would be an early 3rd.

Bilal Powell: Current ADP is identical to Gillislie's, early 12th, that's a late 2nd as it is for Mike G.

To me the only values here are the RB's, Powell and Gillislie.

The best way to judge players that make sense there is to list the players selected between say where the rookies slotted in at 2.4-2.12 in rookie drafts go correspondingly in start ups.

The vets that go there are inbetween 112 and 156 in start ups and strike me as potential value plays are (i might have miscounted as I'm busy, but that's the area for the most part, if I'm wrong, I'm off by one player):

Treadwell: This is the last time he's inbetween being cheap and being free, if he is horrible again this year, he'll be free next year, but if he starts to show signs, his ADP will climb. It's an at your own risk proposition.

Gio Bernard: His ADP has basically collapsed, plunging almost exactly where he was at a year ago (around 60 slots). Bengals probably cut him before the '19 season, maybe earlier.

Marvin Jones: Really cheap play at this point.

K. Cousins: Last year he's this cheap if he stays in Washington.

Matthew Stafford: Quite affordable.

K. Britt: kinda surprised he's this cheap after last year.

Powell/Mike G: Don't get why they're that cheap.

Jack Doyle: No young TE coming in, so it's him or swope in a great offense.

C. Wentz: Reasonably cheap for a potential franchise guy.

M. Lee: is last year a sign that he's a kind of slightly poor man's snead, or just a flash in the pan?

Andy Dalton: Always a great cheap option at QB, especially in MFL 10's.

Q. Enunwa: Could be a breakout.

P. Rivers: A gazillion weapons, a great add for teams trying to win it all.

CJ Fieodorowicz: Nice fill in TE.

[Sterling Archer]

QB - I'd take a combo of Rivers and Palmer on the cheap. Both are on offense that like to throw and their OL should be improved.

WR - as already mentioned Wallace, John Brown, Marvin Jones, Snead, Decker. Also, Maclin seems super cheap. He's not old. What... are people afraid of Tyreek stealing his targets? C'mon. If you can get both Meredith and White, one of them will go for over 1k yards. I disagree with Marquis Lee - I think Hurns is the value play there. He outsnapped Lee when they were both healthy.

RB - Abdullah and Powell already mentioned, good picks. Martin seems really cheap if you can weather a few games without him. I'd take a 1 year rental on Marshawn Lynch for sure.

TE - Doyle was a great mention. Rudolph is still playing with Captain Checkdown, so he'll be good in PPR. Ertz has gotten cheap due to all the rookies leap frogging him in the rankings. People forget he got hurt and missed games last year. Tore it up in the 2nd half. Fleener is ridiculously cheap. IF (big if) he gets on the same page with Brees, he could sneak into the top 5.

I like the idea of grabbing RBs who had rookies drafted (sugbear65), but some of those guys are seriously worthless now. Stewart was already getting sniped at the goal line by Newton and got less than 1.5 targets per game... no value left now. Jeremy Hill - the gig is up, he's been bad 2 years in a row and now replaced. L.Murray wasn't good behind a solid OL in Oakland and no competition for carries. Ivory would need a Fournette injury to have relevance. Out of all those guys, the only guys with hope of top 24 finishes are Ware, Hyde, and Gio. Most of them are old now and won't have much value when cut next year. Yeldon is young enough to catch on with another team one day, but he's still on his rookie deal next year. So most of these guys have almost no value in 2017 or 2018.