Is trading for OTC picks poor strategy?

[Concept Coop]

Does it ever make sense to a pick while it's on the clock? In doing so, you're buying a player at his peak draft capital. Why buy the X.01 for a player that could hypothetically slip to X.02+? Are owners more likely to trade the pick than the player they would end up selecting with the very same pick? Is there a markup that occurs once a player hits and owner's roster?

Not to make this about me, but for example: I found myself offering 3.05+4.05 for 3.02 (OTC) this morning. I've made this move plenty of times with varying results--I like getting my guy. But in doing so, I rule out any change of a slide--and for what upside? I guess I've always gambled on the other owner being willing to gamble on that same slide--and getting the guy he or she otherwise would have selected. But it still feels like a bad bet. (Today, at least. I'll let you know where I stand tomorrow.)

[Cameron Giles]

Teams do this in the real NFL Draft a lot. I don't see anything wrong with it. Sure, it would be awesome to always get the player you want while doing as little as possible. But, you also risk another team selecting him, who might value him much more than you. The icing on the cake is when that player becomes everything you thought he could be.

If you are really high on a player, get them at all costs.

[sloth8u]

trading for the pick before it is otc is foolish in my opinion. you are essentially trading for an unknown asset unless you are trading for 1.1.

just this year, i witnessed an owner go crazy because oj howard was taken with 1.6. it was pretty odd to hear any owner complain about someone's pick like this dude was. i just hadnt seen it in my 5 years playing dynasty leagues. dude was very upset, and even moreso when he couldnt move back with the 1.7 he traded for. sure enough the guy then waited out the draft clock on the 1.7, to select kamara. i hadnt realized (at the time) that this guy had given a ton for pick 1.7 a month or so ago....all in hopes of landing howard.

i can go on with examples, and im sure others have either witnessed, or done themselves....many predraft trades that did not go their way when the picks rolled around.

Especially if your league members do not "live on this site"....drafts can go very differently if your league members arent all staring at the same rankings and reading about the same opinions all the time. not every dynasty league player is as committed or shares the same opinions on players and strategies... even though they are great owners. id say especially so with the new wave of dynasty owners.

your strategy by trading for otc picks........is to get your guy. thats the only reason you should be trading for it. i typically wait a little bit and field offers if anyone is interested in it, but i know who im taking if i moved up.--->landing "your players" in a dynasty league is pretty important, reguardless of whether they are studs or bums. id say this is especially so if your in season rosters arent atleast 25. anything less and you begin to have to drop guys that others value but wont pay for. it could be argued that the otc pick is cheaper in some instances if an owner knows who he is likely to move back and get.

[Valhalla]

Owner bias is definitely a thing. An early 2nd round pick is nice, but as soon as it's a shiny new rookie, the owner that talked him/herself into drafting that guy just hyped the guy up and developed a bias for said player beyond the worth of an early 2nd.
If you like/want a player and know he will go soon, trade in at pick value before another owner drafts and develops owner bias/internalized hype.

[skip]

On the contrary, I think this is a great strategy. Like your example. If you only want one specific player, what do you do if he is picked ahead of you? When you make that offer, the other owner is looking at it as a minor move down for an additional pick. Unless they also like just one player, they will take the offer without consideration for who will be available at the later pick.

[moishetreats]

It not a poor strategy. It just need to used selectively; otherwise, you burn through assets too quickly.

But, no -- not poor. It's part of your arsenal.

[briank]

I used the strategy of trying to move up to get a player who is the last guy in his tier and slipped, while moving down when a bunch of players in the same tier are still on the board. Pretty happy about the results.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Agreed that if you're set on only ONE first-round player in a draft that you pretty much have to wait until draft day rolls around to make your move. Otherwise as in the OP's example you might get burned. I've done things both way in trading up in a draft and also moving down on draft day.

Bad move for me: Trading future assets to get back into the first round to select Duke Johnson who I just knew was going to be a difference maker. Not convinced it's going to happen as we're not a PPR league. Probably unwise.

Good move for me: Not overly excited about using the 1.02 last year on anyone after Zeke went 1.01 I was able to trade the pick with an owner who badly wanted Derrick Henry at 1.02. I ended up with Michael Thomas at 1.09 and an extra first this year.

[Concept Coop]

your strategy by trading for otc picks........is to get your guy.

So is waiting for him to get picked and then targeting him. If I'm sold on Player A, why would I trade the pick that secures him, but not the player? And if I'm willing to make that gamble, how much do I really like him, relative to what else is not the board?

I guess another way to ask: Are you more willing to trade a pick than the player you plan to select with the same pick?

ETA: FTR, I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate here. I highly doubt I'll stop trading up for my guys--in rookie drafts and startups. Hopefully I'll be a bit more careful about it though. You can't get great value without letting it fall to you.

[TTHTD]

The problem with trading for guys OTC is that a lot of times you end up having to pay for the player and not the pick. So if a guy like, for example, Mixon falls to 1.07 you'll probably still have to pay 1.04 pricetag in most cases. This becomes less of a big deal the later in the draft though as tiers start to become irrelevant. I do this all the time in the late 2nd/3rd rounds but try to avoid it in the 1st.

IMO a great play is buy picks at tier drop spots before they're OTC and hope to catch some falling value. Worst case scenario you get your pick of the litter, best case you get a steal or sell for a profit.

[jwint7910]

I'm a big fan of this strategy, but only when the value works out. If I have a guy rated as late round 1 and at the end of round 2 he is still there and I can trade two 3rd round picks I will do it all day. Maybe it is not the best value trading 3.02 and 3.06 for 2.11, but if he is actually your 10th ranked player it is an easy win. You just have to be confident in your evaluation.

I can see an overpay to get the last player in a tier not really working out, but it all depends on the draft capital you have and the status of your roster. If you are loaded with picks and have no roster space, move up like crazy. If your roster is poor and you don't have many picks, you probably should not be jumping up.

[onetwothree]

Depends on cost. Trading a late 2017 pick to move up to get your guy can be a good move. Trading a 2018 pick that's still undefined can easily become a bad move.

In your example, you're talking about 3rd and 4th rd picks. Not a ton of cost so it makes sense if there's a guy you want. Now if you were talking about 1st and 2nd rd picks then there's a higher cost associated.

As for waiting for the player to be drafted before targeting them, my issue is twofold. You declare interest in a guy when you target them and lose some leverage. At least as a draft pick, there's some uncertainty and maybe the owner has 3 names in that range so doesn't mind moving back. The other thing I've found is that owners tend to get more attached to guys they draft and can sometimes become stubborn to trading their guy away.

[dlf_jules]

This thread prompted me to draft an article about draft trading in general. To answer the OP's question, though, there's at least one situation where trading for an OTC pick is obviously a smart move: when you're paying "fair value" to leapfrog someone likely to be targeting the same player as you.

Also, I'll note that if I'm holding an on-the-clock pick, it'll be cheaper to acquire the pick than whatever player I draft.

[maxhyde]

This thread prompted me to draft an article about draft trading in general. To answer the OP's question, though, there's at least one situation where trading for an OTC pick is obviously a smart move: when you're paying "fair value" to leapfrog someone likely to be targeting the same player as you.

Also, I'll note that if I'm holding an on-the-clock pick, it'll be cheaper to acquire the pick than whatever player I draft.

Agreed. Would be player specific for me but many times the pick will be cheaper than the player...if not chances are I pre-drafted them