Top Sell Targets

[jonesmaster]

As the creator of the topic I may as well start with my top 3 list:

1. Sammy Watkins - guy somehow still commands top 20 dynasty value despite proof that its his inability to stay on the field, not solely the offence, that's causing his poor production.
2. Melvin Gordon - injury history, and production at just about the peak i can ever see it going. Plus his age benefits the seller.
3. Lamar Miller - not to suggest that Dont'a foreman signals impending danger, but it is concerning that they spent a high pick on an RB. Without a QB lamar miller is unlikely to see his contract year production, and Watson is unlikely to be the saviour during lamar miller's fantasy career.

[Vcize]

Agree on Gordon. He's a product of almost purely volume. Still hasn't cracked 4ypc for a season.

Watkins value remained steady through most of his injuries, but it does appear to finally be falling. The enticing thing about him is that he could end up being the top FA WR target next offseason so he could end up in a great spot.

[Shcritters]

Not trying to be disrespectful, but did the two of you even look at the Charger's draft class? They added two starting OL's (one who was supposed to be a 1st rounder), they added a stud WR (now the box will be even less stacked), and they didn't bring in a 3rd down back to spell Gordon. To me that says that he is going to be more efficient this year and that his numbers will likely get better than last year. Yes, I own Gordon, but to any unbiased I think it is pretty clear that he isn't a 'hard sell'.

As to sells, Fitz (only one year left), Rishard Mathews (too many mouths to feed and a new #1 dog in town), Demarco (maybe 1 year left of top 10 production before he gets overtaken), and Ingram (last year in NOS?) come to mind.

[flashgordon12]

I agree, I think Gordon is a hold if not a buy. If you watched him last year he actually played fairly well. The ypc is a bit misleading as his o-line was putrid. I think that the additions to the line should help and theres no reason he can't build on last year

[Crwdstunna]

Rishard Matthews- He was pretty TD dependent last year and only topped 5 or more receptions 3 times last year. Meh.

Melvin Gordon- If you are a contender I'd keep him because the volume is there. If you aren't I'd sell as I don't think his value will ever top where it is now. Just not impressed with him overall.

Cameron Meredith- I think Kevin White will take over the WR1 duties and Meredith will turn out to be JAG.

Cam Newton- Carolina added weapons, but he has never impressed me as a passer. As he gets older the rushing numbers, which keep him in the QB conversation, will start to drop. Sell if you have another solid option at QB.

[StableOfRBs]

Agree on Gordon. He's a product of almost purely volume. Still hasn't cracked 4ypc for a season.

Watkins value remained steady through most of his injuries, but it does appear to finally be falling. The enticing thing about him is that he could end up being the top FA WR target next offseason so he could end up in a great spot.

Gordon's YPC over the season is a little misleading, there was a podcast (pretty sure it was the NFL.com fantasy guys) a few months ago where they mentioned that his YPC inside the the 10s was like 2.6 YPC and between the 10s it was 5+, his YPC on the season is skewed a bit because such a high % of his attempts were short yardage runs on the goal line (like 40ish of his 254 attempts)

[ascherb]

Not trying to be disrespectful, but did the two of you even look at the Charger's draft class? They added two starting OL's (one who was supposed to be a 1st rounder), they added a stud WR (now the box will be even less stacked), and they didn't bring in a 3rd down back to spell Gordon. To me that says that he is going to be more efficient this year and that his numbers will likely get better than last year. Yes, I own Gordon, but to any unbiased I think it is pretty clear that he isn't a 'hard sell'.

As to sells, Fitz (only one year left), Rishard Mathews (too many mouths to feed and a new #1 dog in town), Demarco (maybe 1 year left of top 10 production before he gets overtaken), and Ingram (last year in NOS?) come to mind.

Believing Melvin is a good sell-high candidate doesn't have to mean you think he is going to be worthless. I traded Melvin and 2.10 for 1.02, 2.02 and Smallwood and am ecstatic. I do agree that the O-linemen they drafted should help, but I just don't think Melvin is an elite talent.

Also, I Rishard Matthews in a few leagues and his value has already plummeted in my experience. No longer a sell-high guy, and possibly entering into buy-low territory, although Tennessee probably won't throw enough to support both he and Davis.

Ingram too. He's no longer a sell-high guy as his value is down after the AP signing and Kamara addition.

[mtregoli]

If you can get an elite WR asset for Jordan Howard, I am jumping ship all day. Others I'd look to float out there include:

-Demarco Murray
-AB (may be last year you get full pop) Sell a year to early rather than a year to late and enjoy what you got from him.
-DT
-Devante Parker
-Josh Doctson
-Corey Coleman

[Vcize]

What are people thinking they can sell Rishard Matthews for? Everyone knows they drafted Davis. I haven't seen him moved for anything more than a 3rd round pick since the draft.

And agreed with ascherb, Ingram is similar. Everyone is selling. No one is buying.

[Vcize]

Agree on Gordon. He's a product of almost purely volume. Still hasn't cracked 4ypc for a season.

Watkins value remained steady through most of his injuries, but it does appear to finally be falling. The enticing thing about him is that he could end up being the top FA WR target next offseason so he could end up in a great spot.

Gordon's YPC over the season is a little misleading, there was a podcast (pretty sure it was the NFL.com fantasy guys) a few months ago where they mentioned that his YPC inside the the 10s was like 2.6 YPC and between the 10s it was 5+, his YPC on the season is skewed a bit because such a high % of his attempts were short yardage runs on the goal line (like 40ish of his 254 attempts)

I just ran the numbers for 2016.

His YPC outside the 10 was 4.26 on 224 carries.
His YPC inside the 10 was 1.28 on 29 carries.

I'm not sure how that compares to the rest of the league. I would imagine everyone gets a YPC bump when you discount their carries inside the 10. 4.26 would have been good for 17th in the league before you give everyone else a similar bump by pulling out their carries inside the 10.

A few random names I pulled

Blount outside the 10 was 4.21 on 256 carries
Blount inside the 10 was 1.9 on 49 carries

Freeman outside the 10 was 5.19 on 198 carries
Freeman inside the 10 was 1.8 on 30 carries.

Ajayi outside the 10 was 5.11 on 242 carries
Ajayi inside the 10 was 1.8 on 18 carries

DJ outside the 10 was 4.56 on 257 carries
DJ inside the 10 was 1.88 on 36 carries

Delta between YPC outside the 10 and overall YPC
Freeman: .39
DJ: .36
Gordon: .36
Blount: .31
Ajayi: .21

That is to say Freeman's carries inside the 10 dropped his total YPC by .39, DJ's dropped his by .36, etc

We'd have to pull a lot more data to really be sure, but it seems pretty par for the course. Looks like the podcaster was kind of fudging the numbers by applying the data only to the guy being discussed and not looking at how it affected the competition, like when people pull out the 3 longest runs of one player and compare him to another player without pulling out that guy's 3 longest runs.

Again though, I can't be sure as it was tedious to pull the data so I only did it for a few random guys.

[Goddard]

Guys that come to mind are Ajayi, Tyreek Hill, Lamar Miller, Shady (to an extent), Corey Coleman, LYNCH, and Jordy.

Not saying that these players aren't any good, but either I wouldn't be willing to pay the asking price, or would want to cash out due to age before they lose all value.

[roseyknee]

I'm cashing out on AB where I have him. I mentioned this in a players debate thread recently, but I think his elite production is tied to Big Ben. Not saying he won't continue to produce once Ben retires (sooner than later imo), but we've seen him put up duds when Ben was out. I know Landy Jones isn't a starter-level QB, but there's a good chance finding Ben's successor won't be a smooth transition. A lot of people just assume a new QB is a good thing (looking at Nuk/ARob discussions), but replacing a QB is not small task in the NFL, much less a HOF-caliber QB. If I could trade him for another elite asset (Julio, AJG+, etc), I'm going to while he's still commanding top 6 WR value.

[ascherb]

Is this thread for good sell candidates or just naming players that won't be as good this year?

If so, yeah Rishard and Ingram on the list for sure!

[Adrian_Charlie]

Rookie picks 1.1-1.5 People are overpaying for guys who have yet to play a game in the NFL. I felt great about trading 1.2 for ARob after Fournette was picked at 1.1. +1 Sammy Watkins. He still fetches the price of a Top 5 dynasty player. For some reason ppl in my leagues love Corey Coleman.

[ascherb]

Rookie picks 1.1-1.5 People are overpaying for guys who have yet to play a game in the NFL. I felt great about trading 1.2 for ARob after Fournette was picked at 1.1. +1 Sammy Watkins. He still fetches the price of a Top 5 dynasty player. For some reason ppl in my leagues love Corey Coleman.

I have not been in any leagues where Watkins is seen as a Top 5 dynasty asset. If you are in one of those leagues, though, I agree. I would sell Sammy instantly for that price.