Top Sell Targets

[BuckeyeNation]

I might just play in leagues that are more age-centric than others, but in the leagues where I own Brown it's already too late to cash out on him to a big return. For me it's already to the point where Brown is worth more on my contending rosters than what I'll get in return for him. I'll make a push to cash out on him during this season when production matters, but I've already come to accept the fact that I'm probably going down with the ship with Brown unless those teams stop being competitive.

Give: Antonio Brown, Matthew Stafford
Receive: Keenan Allen, 1.07, 2018 1st, 2018 2nd, 2018 3rd

This was an AB deal done in my league in mid-February.

Yeah that probably wouldn't happen in leagues that I'm in. I actually discussed deals with the Allen owner in two separate leagues where I own Brown and what the Allen owners were willing to add was less than that.

[Valhalla]

I'd easily hand over Allen and a couple firsts for AB still...even believing that Ben is retiring next year. I'm not a big Keenan guy, though, with his injury history.

[kmbryant09]

It's always a good idea to sell RB's that aren't great talents, but find themselves in (currently) opportunistic situations. Guys like Wendell Smallwood, Paul Perkins, Ameer Abdullah, Ty Montgomery, Carlos Hyde, etc. - sure, a few of them will take advantage of the opportunity and have a good season or two, but more than likely they will find themselves in a committee and eventually replaced.

Speaking of Hyde, I think he's a major sell if you can fetch solid RB #2 value. He checks a lot of boxes for a sell-target. Bad offense, injury history, new coaching staff (who hand-picked a new RB), etc.

Jordan Howard is also a big-time sell for me. I don't think he's a special talent, or even a very good talent, despite his rookie numbers. I didn't realize he was being valued as a top5 RB in a lot of leagues.

Disagree with this, unless only have to start one RB. Otherwise if you're trading guys like Hyde and Howard, then you probably don't value any RB other than Zeke, Bell, and DJ. I'm not singling you out, I see many people on here always dogging nearly every RB as not being special or elite. FF is about production, no matter how flukey the points scored might be in a given year. So yes I'll be holding onto the likes of Perkins, Abdullah, and Montgomery if I have a shot at winning a title. And even if not a contender, will probably still have to hold them since most owners aren't willing to give decent value for them.

I certainly respect a difference of opinions. But try telling that to the owners of Thomas Rawls, Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Matt Jones, and Jeremy Langford from last year - how did that turn out?

Very few RB's hold significant value for more than 1 - 2 years. When RB's get propped up because of opportunity and a lack of competition, I'll bet my money on that RB getting replaced within 1 - 2 years. For every success story, there are 10 misses (if not more). The guys that I mentioned before (Smallwood, Perkins, etc.) - most of their value is tied to their team's current depth chart - and that situation will change dramatically with 1 injury, 1 trade, or 1 draft pick next off-season.

As for Howard, he doesn't fall into that category, but I still label him a Sell-High. I saw a poll where he was getting more votes in a trade straight up for Alshon Jeffery - which I think is crazy. After the *STUD* RB's (Bell / Zeke / DJ), give me the WR-equivalent in value over the RB-equivalent 7 days a week. Howard certainly has value, but if I can flip him for a top 15 WR, I make that trade.

[Valhalla]

RBs are very difficult to come by.
I don't think Jeffery is a top 15 WR...but that's debatable
I think Jeffery's numbers can be had all over the place, provided by SO MANY OTHER COMPARABLE WRs. I don't think that's true about replicating Howard's numbers.
If I did contribute to that other thread, I stand by what I likely said. If I didn't mark me down for another Howard vote.

[gogobradyarm]

Anyone that lists Gordon as a sell is ignorant to what the Chargers did this offseason. They didn't draft competition, they didn't sign FA competition, they improved their oline, they signed a head coach with a RB Coach resume and the volume is going to be there. If Gordon isn't a top 10 RB, i'll eat my hat, but i'm confident he'll break the top 5.

Anyone that lists Hopkins as a sell, I simply can't understand. He had one down season with Brock O. Look what he has done outside of Brock being his QB.... He just got Watson, which might be the best QB he has ever had!

Top sells for me are:

-Tyreek Hill (Unlikely to remain so efficient)
-Allen Robinson (Catch rate is awful, looks to be turning to a run first offense and Lee is blooming)
-Rob Kelley (Perine on his tail)
-Spencer Ware (Hunt on his tail)
-Le'Veon Bell (His value can not get any higher. You can get a monumental hall for him and build for years)

[Cameron Giles]

I might just play in leagues that are more age-centric than others, but in the leagues where I own Brown it's already too late to cash out on him to a big return. For me it's already to the point where Brown is worth more on my contending rosters than what I'll get in return for him. I'll make a push to cash out on him during this season when production matters, but I've already come to accept the fact that I'm probably going down with the ship with Brown unless those teams stop being competitive.

Going down with the ship for Antonio Brown isn't the worst idea. I figure most teams that have Brown are in some position to be a playoff team. If that's the case, why would I trade him? At some point, you have to ignore dynasty value and prioritize winning games. Brown wins leagues. He could easily be in his mid 30's putting up 90-100 receptions a game. Larry Fitzgerald is still giving teams WR1 value at age 33.

Sell Brown if you're rebuilding, but don't sell him just to say you sold him before he hits 29-30.

[Vcize]

It's always a good idea to sell RB's that aren't great talents, but find themselves in (currently) opportunistic situations. Guys like Wendell Smallwood, Paul Perkins, Ameer Abdullah, Ty Montgomery, Carlos Hyde, etc. - sure, a few of them will take advantage of the opportunity and have a good season or two, but more than likely they will find themselves in a committee and eventually replaced.

Speaking of Hyde, I think he's a major sell if you can fetch solid RB #2 value. He checks a lot of boxes for a sell-target. Bad offense, injury history, new coaching staff (who hand-picked a new RB), etc.

Jordan Howard is also a big-time sell for me. I don't think he's a special talent, or even a very good talent, despite his rookie numbers. I didn't realize he was being valued as a top5 RB in a lot of leagues.

Disagree with this, unless only have to start one RB. Otherwise if you're trading guys like Hyde and Howard, then you probably don't value any RB other than Zeke, Bell, and DJ. I'm not singling you out, I see many people on here always dogging nearly every RB as not being special or elite. FF is about production, no matter how flukey the points scored might be in a given year. So yes I'll be holding onto the likes of Perkins, Abdullah, and Montgomery if I have a shot at winning a title. And even if not a contender, will probably still have to hold them since most owners aren't willing to give decent value for them.

I certainly respect a difference of opinions. But try telling that to the owners of Thomas Rawls, Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Matt Jones, and Jeremy Langford from last year - how did that turn out?

Very few RB's hold significant value for more than 1 - 2 years. When RB's get propped up because of opportunity and a lack of competition, I'll bet my money on that RB getting replaced within 1 - 2 years. For every success story, there are 10 misses (if not more). The guys that I mentioned before (Smallwood, Perkins, etc.) - most of their value is tied to their team's current depth chart - and that situation will change dramatically with 1 injury, 1 trade, or 1 draft pick next off-season.

As for Howard, he doesn't fall into that category, but I still label him a Sell-High. I saw a poll where he was getting more votes in a trade straight up for Alshon Jeffery - which I think is crazy. After the *STUD* RB's (Bell / Zeke / DJ), give me the WR-equivalent in value over the RB-equivalent 7 days a week. Howard certainly has value, but if I can flip him for a top 15 WR, I make that trade.

I think there is a difference between RBs that have a good breakout year, and RBs that have a truly *GREAT* breakout year. Howard falls into the latter category. None of those other guys did.

Here is a list of the RBs to rush for 1200+ yards as a rookie.

Fred Taylor
Chris Johnson
Ladainian Tomlinson
Matt Forte
Steve Slaton
Marshall Faulk
Adrian Peterson
Jamal Lewis
Eddie George
Doug Martin
Mike Anderson
Curtis Martin
Clinton Portis
Edgerrin James
Alfred Morris
Ezekiel Elliot
Jordan Howard

[smallxl]

As the creator of the topic I may as well start with my top 3 list:

1. Sammy Watkins - guy somehow still commands top 20 dynasty value despite proof that its his inability to stay on the field, not solely the offence, that's causing his poor production.
2. Melvin Gordon - injury history, and production at just about the peak i can ever see it going. Plus his age benefits the seller.
3. Lamar Miller - not to suggest that Dont'a foreman signals impending danger, but it is concerning that they spent a high pick on an RB. Without a QB lamar miller is unlikely to see his contract year production, and Watson is unlikely to be the saviour during lamar miller's fantasy career.

Love the Sammy pick....couldnt agree more...keenan Allen for me as well.

I would sell Jeffrey and Carlos Hyde as well

[kmbryant09]

Disagree with this, unless only have to start one RB. Otherwise if you're trading guys like Hyde and Howard, then you probably don't value any RB other than Zeke, Bell, and DJ. I'm not singling you out, I see many people on here always dogging nearly every RB as not being special or elite. FF is about production, no matter how flukey the points scored might be in a given year. So yes I'll be holding onto the likes of Perkins, Abdullah, and Montgomery if I have a shot at winning a title. And even if not a contender, will probably still have to hold them since most owners aren't willing to give decent value for them.

I certainly respect a difference of opinions. But try telling that to the owners of Thomas Rawls, Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Matt Jones, and Jeremy Langford from last year - how did that turn out?

Very few RB's hold significant value for more than 1 - 2 years. When RB's get propped up because of opportunity and a lack of competition, I'll bet my money on that RB getting replaced within 1 - 2 years. For every success story, there are 10 misses (if not more). The guys that I mentioned before (Smallwood, Perkins, etc.) - most of their value is tied to their team's current depth chart - and that situation will change dramatically with 1 injury, 1 trade, or 1 draft pick next off-season.

As for Howard, he doesn't fall into that category, but I still label him a Sell-High. I saw a poll where he was getting more votes in a trade straight up for Alshon Jeffery - which I think is crazy. After the *STUD* RB's (Bell / Zeke / DJ), give me the WR-equivalent in value over the RB-equivalent 7 days a week. Howard certainly has value, but if I can flip him for a top 15 WR, I make that trade.

I think there is a difference between RBs that have a good breakout year, and RBs that have a truly *GREAT* breakout year. Howard falls into the latter category. None of those other guys did.

Here is a list of the RBs to rush for 1200+ yards as a rookie.

Fred Taylor
Chris Johnson
Ladainian Tomlinson
Matt Forte
Steve Slaton
Marshall Faulk
Adrian Peterson
Jamal Lewis
Eddie George
Doug Martin
Mike Anderson
Curtis Martin
Clinton Portis
Edgerrin James
Alfred Morris
Ezekiel Elliot
Jordan Howard

Maybe I need to be more clear. My posts have been separated into 2 separate points:
1. RB's that get propped up solely due to situation / depth chart / opportunity (like Smallwood / Hyde / Abdullah / etc.) are very easy sells since most of the time they flame out and lose all of their value.
2. On a completely separate point, I think Jordan Howard is a sell, because I don't think he's worth top-5 RB prices. That's not to say his value is going to tank this year as he gets replaced by another RB. I just don't think he sustains / builds off his rookie-year success for another 3 - 5+ years that would be needed to warrant his current value.

[Vcize]

2. On a completely separate point, I think Jordan Howard is a sell, because I don't think he's worth top-5 RB prices. That's not to say his value is going to tank this year as he gets replaced by another RB. I just don't think he sustains / builds off his rookie-year success for another 3 - 5+ years that would be needed to warrant his current value.

10 years ago I think I would agree. But in the current NFL "top 5 RB" isn't really saying that much. There is pretty much Zeke/DJ/Bell and then a bunch of question marks. Anyone from #4 on is going to be a risk that they're no longer even a fantasy starter 3 years from now.

FWIW, Howard is currently RB8 in startup ADP as well, going in the 3rd round, and there have been quite a few trades in the trade advice forum here where he is going for rookie picks in the early-mid range. So while every league is different I don't think his current value is typically as high as you are implying.

If anything, it seems like a pretty cheap price to buy a ticket into that list above.

[kmbryant09]

2. On a completely separate point, I think Jordan Howard is a sell, because I don't think he's worth top-5 RB prices. That's not to say his value is going to tank this year as he gets replaced by another RB. I just don't think he sustains / builds off his rookie-year success for another 3 - 5+ years that would be needed to warrant his current value.

10 years ago I think I would agree. But in the current NFL "top 5 RB" isn't really saying that much. There is pretty much Zeke/DJ/Bell and then a bunch of question marks. Anyone from #4 on is going to be a risk that they're no longer even a fantasy starter 3 years from now.

FWIW, Howard is currently RB8 in startup ADP as well, going in the 3rd round, and there have been quite a few trades in the trade advice forum here where he is going for rookie picks in the early-mid range. So while every league is different I don't think his current value is typically as high as you are implying.

If anything, it seems like a pretty cheap price to buy a ticket into that list above.

Fair enough ^^. If your league values him as a low-end RB #1 / high-end RB #2, I have no issue with that.

I just can't help but feel like he loses value over the next 1 - 2 years, but maybe I'm in the minority.

[Valhalla]

...Brown wins leagues. He could easily be in his mid 30's putting up 90-100 receptions a game.

[Factory of Sadness]

There definitely seems to be a shift happening with RBs. Three of them winning leagues last year and the sheer number of valid options at WR is making it harder to trade for RBs in many leagues. I've been looking for a back and the response to my offers of a comparably valued WR has been some version of 'I can get 20 of that guy if I need to.' There's really no need to carry a stable of WRs outside of the top tier guys because there are so many productive receivers out there. When I look at who is likely to win a league this year, I'll be looking at teams with real depth at RB. Of course we all know that WRs age better, hold their value better and don't drop off the face of the earth when a shinier, newer one joins their team. There are a lot of them though and the complacent view that the rarer RBs shouldn't be drafted earlier or held when offered a good WR is starting to look a little blinkered. I think there's probably a hack here that involves buying backs from sniffy owners and sitting on them until just before the season. No need to risk an injury in season. Just buy whilst people are polishing their pretty fleet of WRs in the off-season and sell when they're trying to work out how to win games. Sell the WRs you like owning, but don't really need and see who will under-sell their RBs.

[meineymoe]

Guys that come to mind are Ajayi, Tyreek Hill, Lamar Miller, Shady (to an extent), Corey Coleman, LYNCH, and Jordy.

Not saying that these players aren't any good, but either I wouldn't be willing to pay the asking price, or would want to cash out due to age before they lose all value.

This is the best list I've seen on this thread.
Ajayi - I've never been a believer, but suddenly people are hot for him. I'm selling all day.
Hill - will never duplicate rookie numbers. Never know when past off field issues come back.
Miller - I like him and will buy for correct price, but I've seen him going for a pretty penny, so sell.
Shady - A case of don't hang onto him too long. He could be one of those RBs who suddenly go bad. Sell while you can still get a decent price.
Coleman - was able to grab him late in FA draft, and the buzz is very loud on him right now. Strike while the iron is hot.
Lynch - whatever. I don't see a return of Beast Mode, at least not sustained for an entire season.
Jordy - injured every other season. But people still love him.

-oo-

[kmbryant09]

It's always a good idea to sell RB's that aren't great talents, but find themselves in (currently) opportunistic situations. Guys like Wendell Smallwood, Paul Perkins, Ameer Abdullah, Ty Montgomery, Carlos Hyde, etc. - sure, a few of them will take advantage of the opportunity and have a good season or two, but more than likely they will find themselves in a committee and eventually replaced.

Speaking of Hyde, I think he's a major sell if you can fetch solid RB #2 value. He checks a lot of boxes for a sell-target. Bad offense, injury history, new coaching staff (who hand-picked a new RB), etc.

Jordan Howard is also a big-time sell for me. I don't think he's a special talent, or even a very good talent, despite his rookie numbers. I didn't realize he was being valued as a top5 RB in a lot of leagues.

Disagree with this, unless only have to start one RB. Otherwise if you're trading guys like Hyde and Howard, then you probably don't value any RB other than Zeke, Bell, and DJ. I'm not singling you out, I see many people on here always dogging nearly every RB as not being special or elite. FF is about production, no matter how flukey the points scored might be in a given year. So yes I'll be holding onto the likes of Perkins, Abdullah, and Montgomery if I have a shot at winning a title. And even if not a contender, will probably still have to hold them since most owners aren't willing to give decent value for them.

Down goes Smallwood.