Top Sell Targets

[Goddard]

Yeah, you addressed it... and it made me laugh and then I told you why it's not a real reason his ypc was low. Lots of other guys had goal line carries that didn't cause them to have low ypc. And even if you remove his 20 goal line carries, it doesn't help his ypc very much.

I'm saying he was lucky to get those scoring opps last year. Not many players get 6-7 1 yard TDs. Really inflated his value after having zero the year before. It's likely those things even out next year and he'll have single digit TD totals to go along with that 3.9 ypc and yet another week 14 injury.

I think you're confusing me with someone else. I never used the goal-line carries as a reason. My reasoning was a poor offensive line. You can argue that all you want and compare him to Crowell, but I'm not buying it. That O-line has been terrible the past 2 seasons, but should be much better this year.

Yep, must've been someone else. My bad. But I think we are looking at the same offensive line stats. If you want to believe your eyeball test over footballoutsiders, then that's your prerogative, but I'll take stats over my own eyeball test any day. As for the line being "much better" I think that is far from certain. I think they brought in the oft-injured Okung and drafted two rookies. So there is hope for sure, but expecting a massive shift is just setting yourself up for disappointment. FWIW, PFF gave the Okung singing a grade of "F". Even with improvement, they'll likely still be in the bottom half of the league.

But back to the real topic, do you not agree that another lackluster YPC or another injury will absolutely tank Gordon's value? He's currently RB5 in most dynasty rankings. I can't fathom him increasing that next year. When a guy is in a high risk situation and at peak value, that screams sell to me. I mean, if people are calling Abdullah injury prone after one injury in two years, how is Gordon not already labelled that after ending 2 of 2 seasons on the IR? So much risk, so little (ranking/trade value) upside.

You said their Oline was statistically good, but then said that even with the improvements this year, they'll continue to be in the bottom half of the league. That part is a little confusing for me.

As for Gordon's value dropping if he gets injured or plays poorly, yes, I completely agree. However, I don't like to predict injuries and I'm banking on him improving his overall numbers (outside of his total TDs, but even that's not impossible). There's also going to be the rise of the rookie RBs from this year where one or two crack the top 5, but it doesn't mean Gordon can't still be viewed as a top dynasty asset at his podition if he plays well.

[Sterling Archer]

I think you're confusing me with someone else. I never used the goal-line carries as a reason. My reasoning was a poor offensive line. You can argue that all you want and compare him to Crowell, but I'm not buying it. That O-line has been terrible the past 2 seasons, but should be much better this year.

Yep, must've been someone else. My bad. But I think we are looking at the same offensive line stats. If you want to believe your eyeball test over footballoutsiders, then that's your prerogative, but I'll take stats over my own eyeball test any day. As for the line being "much better" I think that is far from certain. I think they brought in the oft-injured Okung and drafted two rookies. So there is hope for sure, but expecting a massive shift is just setting yourself up for disappointment. FWIW, PFF gave the Okung singing a grade of "F". Even with improvement, they'll likely still be in the bottom half of the league.

But back to the real topic, do you not agree that another lackluster YPC or another injury will absolutely tank Gordon's value? He's currently RB5 in most dynasty rankings. I can't fathom him increasing that next year. When a guy is in a high risk situation and at peak value, that screams sell to me. I mean, if people are calling Abdullah injury prone after one injury in two years, how is Gordon not already labelled that after ending 2 of 2 seasons on the IR? So much risk, so little (ranking/trade value) upside.

You said their Oline was statistically good, but then said that even with the improvements this year, they'll continue to be in the bottom half of the league. That part is a little confusing for me.

As for Gordon's value dropping if he gets injured or plays poorly, yes, I completely agree. However, I don't like to predict injuries and I'm banking on him improving his overall numbers (outside of his total TDs, but even that's not impossible). There's also going to be the rise of the rookie RBs from this year where one or two crack the top 5, but it doesn't mean Gordon can't still be viewed as a top dynasty asset at his podition if he plays well.

I doubt I ever said that. Weren't they like 22nd on the FO link? What I think I said was that they weren't AS BAD as everyone makes them out to be. I never meant to imply they were actually good.

I don't like to predict injury, either. I'm just saying that an injury to Gordon would hurt his value more than an injury to anyone else, thus he is much riskier than other players on injury alone. But he's got the added probably of low ypc. One more season like that and his value plummets. So if he stays healthy and has a low ypc - value tanks. If he puts up good ypc but gets injured - value tanks. Again, I'm not about predicting injury, but I think one of those two things are likely. Hell, if he gets shut out of the end zone again (not literally, but <5), his value probably tanks. So Gordon being RB5 right now is one of the strongest sells I can imagine. He's got almost zero chance to improve his value to even RB4, but his perch at RB5 is extremely precarious. I'd say there's less than a 1% chance he improves his value over the course of the season. He'll be lucky to retain RB5 into next year. I really think there's a 50% chance he falls out of the top 10 after this season.