Top Sell Targets

[Valhalla]

Ok. Take a bunch of those red zone carries away from him then so his YPC gets a touch more respectable. The big TD production propping his value takes a dip by doing that, though.
He's good enough to succeed in the NFL, like Crowell is. Many, many RBs are. I just don't think he's a long-term stud.

[Goddard]

I think people are forgetting that Gordon was doing this behind a terrible offensive line. Not sure many RBs would have had a higher YPC behind the same line. It wouldn't be surprising if he continued to improve on those numbers with the improvement of their Oline. He was also a very capable and good pass catcher that no one seems to mention. His numbers last year weren't just from TDs. His TD numbers actually went down towards the end of the season and he continued putting up RB1 numbers.

[StableOfRBs]

Ok. Take a bunch of those red zone carries away from him then so his YPC gets a touch more respectable. The big TD production propping his value takes a dip by doing that, though.
He's good enough to succeed in the NFL, like Crowell is. Many, many RBs are. I just don't think he's a long-term stud.

Well if you figure next year he plays 15 games and keeps up the same attempts/game as last year he'll end up with 313 carries by the end of the season, factor in a drop from his 20% RZ carry share last year to the top 20 average of 16.7% and he ends the year with 52 RZ carries, one more than he had last year, so he should be able to maintain the 10 rushing TDs he had last year and it wouldn't surprise me if the 41 catches and 2 passing TDs were closer to 50-55 catches and 3-4 passing TDs

whether or not he can be a long term stud isnt really the issue since the Chargers think he is and have built their backfield and OL as if he is, they've put him in a bell cow position and opportunity will make up for lack of talent in almost any situation, just look at Latavius last year, a mediocre RB at best but put him behind the Oakland OL and give him a bunch of GL carries and suddenly he's a top 15 RB who set the OAK rushing TD record, if you took away all his backfield competition and gave him all their carries/targets that's at LEAST the situation Melvin Gordon is in right now and, whether you think it's a lot or a little, he's definitely got more talent than Murray does

[Chris_R]

Guys that come to mind are Ajayi, Tyreek Hill, Lamar Miller, Shady (to an extent), Corey Coleman, LYNCH, and Jordy.

Not saying that these players aren't any good, but either I wouldn't be willing to pay the asking price, or would want to cash out due to age before they lose all value.

Shady - A case of don't hang onto him too long. He could be one of those RBs who suddenly go bad. Sell while you can still get a decent price.
Jordy - injured every other season. But people still love him.

-oo-

This is what's wrong with dynasty football. People are afraid of "old" players. If you're not a contender, yeah trade and get what you can. If you're a contender, hold them and keep them until they die. I'd rather win championships rather than constantly rebuild. Sometimes we need to hold onto these talented veteran players until they've fizzled out. Shady is a workhorse, Jordy will feast on TDs. Why trade based on what if scenarios? What can you realistically get for these players? People are too afraid of "old" players, you won't get good value in return.

I'd be worried about Shady if the Bills drafted one of the sexy RBs from this class, but they didn't. They could have grabbed Blount in FA, but they didn't. Get yourself some Williams in your life if you're worried about Shady. Jordy was still putting up numbers in the playoffs. Him and Fitz could be exceptions to the age rule.

This.

I always look for these types of owners who always want to rebuild a d are always worried about "old" players. Just look at Demarco Murray. What was he worth last year? He gave owners 1700 yards and 10+ TDs. People were giving Brees and Brady away for years now. Sure sometimes you hit but how many waste 1st round picks on wasted RBs like Cobb, Franklin, Tate, Hardesty, Christine Michael, lots more I'm forgetting. I look for a couple older players every year I know I can win with. I would rather have 1 more elite top 5 RB season from Shady then take a flier on a late 1st round RB if I am a contender.

[Goddard]

This.

I always look for these types of owners who always want to rebuild a d are always worried about "old" players. Just look at Demarco Murray. What was he worth last year? He gave owners 1700 yards and 10+ TDs. People were giving Brees and Brady away for years now. Sure sometimes you hit but how many waste 1st round picks on wasted RBs like Cobb, Franklin, Tate, Hardesty, Christine Michael, lots more I'm forgetting. I look for a couple older players every year I know I can win with. I would rather have 1 more elite top 5 RB season from Shady then take a flier on a late 1st round RB if I am a contender.

I don't remember any of those guys being 1st round picks in my leagues, but I could be wrong. I think you're missing the point though. Sure, if you're competitive and these guys are going to help you win, no reason to trade them. But if that's not the case, you're not going to get a better price than you will now for some of these players if you hold them for another year. I think you can sell a player a year or two early, get great value, and still be competitive (the Patriots have been doing this for over a decade). And yes, you might not always hit on your draft picks, but these older guys can just as easily hit a cliff and fall off before we expected them to.

[Sterling Archer]

Anyone that lists Gordon as a sell is ignorant to what the Chargers did this offseason. They didn't draft competition, they didn't sign FA competition, they improved their oline, they signed a head coach with a RB Coach resume and the volume is going to be there. If Gordon isn't a top 10 RB, i'll eat my hat, but i'm confident he'll break the top 5.

Anyone that lists Hopkins as a sell, I simply can't understand. He had one down season with Brock O. Look what he has done outside of Brock being his QB.... He just got Watson, which might be the best QB he has ever had!

Top sells for me are:

-Tyreek Hill (Unlikely to remain so efficient)
-Allen Robinson (Catch rate is awful, looks to be turning to a run first offense and Lee is blooming)
-Rob Kelley (Perine on his tail)
-Spencer Ware (Hunt on his tail)
-Le'Veon Bell (His value can not get any higher. You can get a monumental hall for him and build for years)

I agree that the Chargers made all the right moves to prop up Gordon's value. He's going to get a chance this year, which makes it your last chance to sell high. He's currently carrying RB5 (!!) value, yet the guy hasn't cracked 4 ypc in either season and he's ended both years on the IR. One more 3.X ypc season and he's labeled a plodder for life. One more injury and he's labeled injury prone. I mean, hell, people are calling Abdullah injury prone after playing a full 16 game season as a rookie and then getting one injury in year 2. I guess it's all about when the injury occurs to some people... Anyway, this is all to say that Gordon is easily a top sell high candidate. Anyone who disagrees isn't paying attention.

I agree with the other poster who mentioned selling marginally talented RBs like Ty and Perkins. And I agree with selling Howard, too. These guys all carry the risk of bust or replacement.

Your sells all seem fair except Ware. If Ware maintains his job (at least a 50% chance), he's going to be a steal for anyone who trades for him. His current rate/price already has fear of losing his job baked into it. As for Bell, it all depends on the haul. He's actually younger than DJ and more proven between the tackles, so I'd list DJ before Bell.

You do realize Gordon's YPC last year was artificially deflated because he had such a high % of his runs inside the red zone right? he's like 4.5+ between the 20s, you can point at his injuries for sure but don't look at his YPC as a reason to sell

also the age difference between DJ and Bell is like 2 months, hardly a reason to sell one over the other, especially considering Bell's injury history and off the field issues

Hahaha, no.

That's fuzzy math. He had 20 carries inside the 5 yard line and those were a blessing. He had 9 TDs from those carries. His value wouldn't be anywhere near where it is if not for those carries. I think 6 or 7 of his TDs were actually only 1 yard plunges. He got lucky as hell last year on those carries, but they weren't enough to significantly impact his ypc. And like others have said, all other workhorse backs have a similar number of goal line carries. Blount had 34. David Johnson had 25. Freeman had 20. So cry me a river about those 20 carries weighing Gordon down.

As for Bell and DJ, like I said, Bell has a more proven track record of success. I only brought up age bc a lot of people think DJ is younger since he's only been a name for 1.5 years.

[Sterling Archer]

I think people are forgetting that Gordon was doing this behind a terrible offensive line. Not sure many RBs would have had a higher YPC behind the same line. It wouldn't be surprising if he continued to improve on those numbers with the improvement of their Oline. He was also a very capable and good pass catcher that no one seems to mention. His numbers last year weren't just from TDs. His TD numbers actually went down towards the end of the season and he continued putting up RB1 numbers.

The bad O-line is valid (although not as bad as people make it out to be), but playing with Rivers is a plus. Think of Crowell playing with the scrub QBs he played with, yet he managed 4.8 ypc. And his offensive line was actually worse: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

[Goddard]

Hahaha, no.

That's fuzzy math. He had 20 carries inside the 5 yard line and those were a blessing. He had 9 TDs from those carries. His value wouldn't be anywhere near where it is if not for those carries. I think 6 or 7 of his TDs were actually only 1 yard plunges. He got lucky as hell last year on those carries, but they weren't enough to significantly impact his ypc. And like others have said, all other workhorse backs have a similar number of goal line carries. Blount had 34. David Johnson had 25. Freeman had 20. So cry me a river about those 20 carries weighing Gordon down.

As for Bell and DJ, like I said, Bell has a more proven track record of success. I only brought up age bc a lot of people think DJ is younger since he's only been a name for 1.5 years.

I'm not going to argue about the whole YPC thing inside the 20 or 5 because I already addressed one of the main reasons why I think his YPC is low. But why do you think he "got lucky as hell" on those carries (I'm assuming you're talking about the GL carries)? Was he lucky that he was able to score or was he lucky that they got inside the 5 altogether?

[Goddard]

I think people are forgetting that Gordon was doing this behind a terrible offensive line. Not sure many RBs would have had a higher YPC behind the same line. It wouldn't be surprising if he continued to improve on those numbers with the improvement of their Oline. He was also a very capable and good pass catcher that no one seems to mention. His numbers last year weren't just from TDs. His TD numbers actually went down towards the end of the season and he continued putting up RB1 numbers.

The bad O-line is valid (although not as bad as people make it out to be), but playing with Rivers is a plus. Think of Crowell playing with the scrub QBs he played with, yet he managed 4.8 ypc. And his offensive line was actually worse: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

I think the numbers are a little misleading. Watching some of the SD games, there were several times where Gordon kept getting hit in the backfield just as he got the ball, but still making something out of nothing. I haven't watched nearly enough Cleveland games, but as far as I know, they supposedly had a good O-line.

I think we're splitting hairs with all these numbers and comparisons, but I'm not sure why anyone would doubt that Gordon can improve from last year with what the Chargers did (and didn't do) this off-season. Even if his TD numbers go down, I expect his YPC to improve, his receptions to increase, and continue putting up RB1 numbers.

[Valhalla]

I think we're splitting hairs with all these numbers and comparisons, but I'm not sure why anyone would doubt that Gordon can improve from last year with what the Chargers did (and didn't do) this off-season. Even if his TD numbers go down, I expect his YPC to improve, his receptions to increase, and continue putting up RB1 numbers.

Agreed. I'd like to own him as a short-term piece. I think he'll do well. Yet, if I could sell him at a top 5 RB price, I'm all over selling him.

[maxhyde]

Depends how dramatically the price drop from 4-5 is doesn't it? I mean if you are selling for the same as Miller/Howard/Ajayi/Freeman what is your option at RB? Cook? Mixon? CMC? I am translating your sell into picks so that may be a mistake but I mean is anyone at this point swapping 1.01/1.02 (Fournette) for any of those guys...or even Gurley for that matter?
The assumption is after Zeke/Bell/DJ/Gurley those guys are going to be in that same price range

[Sterling Archer]

Hahaha, no.

That's fuzzy math. He had 20 carries inside the 5 yard line and those were a blessing. He had 9 TDs from those carries. His value wouldn't be anywhere near where it is if not for those carries. I think 6 or 7 of his TDs were actually only 1 yard plunges. He got lucky as hell last year on those carries, but they weren't enough to significantly impact his ypc. And like others have said, all other workhorse backs have a similar number of goal line carries. Blount had 34. David Johnson had 25. Freeman had 20. So cry me a river about those 20 carries weighing Gordon down.

As for Bell and DJ, like I said, Bell has a more proven track record of success. I only brought up age bc a lot of people think DJ is younger since he's only been a name for 1.5 years.

I'm not going to argue about the whole YPC thing inside the 20 or 5 because I already addressed one of the main reasons why I think his YPC is low. But why do you think he "got lucky as hell" on those carries (I'm assuming you're talking about the GL carries)? Was he lucky that he was able to score or was he lucky that they got inside the 5 altogether?

Yeah, you addressed it... and it made me laugh and then I told you why it's not a real reason his ypc was low. Lots of other guys had goal line carries that didn't cause them to have low ypc. And even if you remove his 20 goal line carries, it doesn't help his ypc very much.

I'm saying he was lucky to get those scoring opps last year. Not many players get 6-7 1 yard TDs. Really inflated his value after having zero the year before. It's likely those things even out next year and he'll have single digit TD totals to go along with that 3.9 ypc and yet another week 14 injury.

[Sterling Archer]

I think people are forgetting that Gordon was doing this behind a terrible offensive line. Not sure many RBs would have had a higher YPC behind the same line. It wouldn't be surprising if he continued to improve on those numbers with the improvement of their Oline. He was also a very capable and good pass catcher that no one seems to mention. His numbers last year weren't just from TDs. His TD numbers actually went down towards the end of the season and he continued putting up RB1 numbers.

The bad O-line is valid (although not as bad as people make it out to be), but playing with Rivers is a plus. Think of Crowell playing with the scrub QBs he played with, yet he managed 4.8 ypc. And his offensive line was actually worse: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

I think the numbers are a little misleading. Watching some of the SD games, there were several times where Gordon kept getting hit in the backfield just as he got the ball, but still making something out of nothing. I haven't watched nearly enough Cleveland games, but as far as I know, they supposedly had a good O-line.

I think we're splitting hairs with all these numbers and comparisons, but I'm not sure why anyone would doubt that Gordon can improve from last year with what the Chargers did (and didn't do) this off-season. Even if his TD numbers go down, I expect his YPC to improve, his receptions to increase, and continue putting up RB1 numbers.

Yeah, the eyeball test can be misleading. I'm guilty, too, of thinking an offensive line is better or worse than it is just by watching a few games. Those football outsiders stats are just for run blocking, not pass protection, I believe. SD was actually better than a lot of people think (although still not very good). Everybody gets hit in the backfield from time to time. It's likely Crowell got hit more than Gordon given those stats... but who watches Cleveland games? And yeah, Cleveland used to have a good line when Mack was there and Joe Thomas was healthy, but last year they lost Mack and had some injuries. They were a bad overall unit, as you can see by the stats.

[Goddard]

Hahaha, no.

That's fuzzy math. He had 20 carries inside the 5 yard line and those were a blessing. He had 9 TDs from those carries. His value wouldn't be anywhere near where it is if not for those carries. I think 6 or 7 of his TDs were actually only 1 yard plunges. He got lucky as hell last year on those carries, but they weren't enough to significantly impact his ypc. And like others have said, all other workhorse backs have a similar number of goal line carries. Blount had 34. David Johnson had 25. Freeman had 20. So cry me a river about those 20 carries weighing Gordon down.

As for Bell and DJ, like I said, Bell has a more proven track record of success. I only brought up age bc a lot of people think DJ is younger since he's only been a name for 1.5 years.

I'm not going to argue about the whole YPC thing inside the 20 or 5 because I already addressed one of the main reasons why I think his YPC is low. But why do you think he "got lucky as hell" on those carries (I'm assuming you're talking about the GL carries)? Was he lucky that he was able to score or was he lucky that they got inside the 5 altogether?

Yeah, you addressed it... and it made me laugh and then I told you why it's not a real reason his ypc was low. Lots of other guys had goal line carries that didn't cause them to have low ypc. And even if you remove his 20 goal line carries, it doesn't help his ypc very much.

I'm saying he was lucky to get those scoring opps last year. Not many players get 6-7 1 yard TDs. Really inflated his value after having zero the year before. It's likely those things even out next year and he'll have single digit TD totals to go along with that 3.9 ypc and yet another week 14 injury.

I think you're confusing me with someone else. I never used the goal-line carries as a reason. My reasoning was a poor offensive line. You can argue that all you want and compare him to Crowell, but I'm not buying it. That O-line has been terrible the past 2 seasons, but should be much better this year.

[Sterling Archer]

I'm not going to argue about the whole YPC thing inside the 20 or 5 because I already addressed one of the main reasons why I think his YPC is low. But why do you think he "got lucky as hell" on those carries (I'm assuming you're talking about the GL carries)? Was he lucky that he was able to score or was he lucky that they got inside the 5 altogether?

Yeah, you addressed it... and it made me laugh and then I told you why it's not a real reason his ypc was low. Lots of other guys had goal line carries that didn't cause them to have low ypc. And even if you remove his 20 goal line carries, it doesn't help his ypc very much.

I'm saying he was lucky to get those scoring opps last year. Not many players get 6-7 1 yard TDs. Really inflated his value after having zero the year before. It's likely those things even out next year and he'll have single digit TD totals to go along with that 3.9 ypc and yet another week 14 injury.

I think you're confusing me with someone else. I never used the goal-line carries as a reason. My reasoning was a poor offensive line. You can argue that all you want and compare him to Crowell, but I'm not buying it. That O-line has been terrible the past 2 seasons, but should be much better this year.

Yep, must've been someone else. My bad. But I think we are looking at the same offensive line stats. If you want to believe your eyeball test over footballoutsiders, then that's your prerogative, but I'll take stats over my own eyeball test any day. As for the line being "much better" I think that is far from certain. I think they brought in the oft-injured Okung and drafted two rookies. So there is hope for sure, but expecting a massive shift is just setting yourself up for disappointment. FWIW, PFF gave the Okung singing a grade of "F". Even with improvement, they'll likely still be in the bottom half of the league.

But back to the real topic, do you not agree that another lackluster YPC or another injury will absolutely tank Gordon's value? He's currently RB5 in most dynasty rankings. I can't fathom him increasing that next year. When a guy is in a high risk situation and at peak value, that screams sell to me. I mean, if people are calling Abdullah injury prone after one injury in two years, how is Gordon not already labelled that after ending 2 of 2 seasons on the IR? So much risk, so little (ranking/trade value) upside.