McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

[Cameron Giles]

You realize that ALL RBs and FBs on the panthers combined for 44 receptions last year and only 51 in 2015 and Greg Olson only had 80 & 77 receptions in last two years where the other options were dismal.

Panthers had only 300 & 306 receptions each of last two years. Takes a huge leap of faith to think 88 is even close. 40-50 receptions much more likely.

Reggie Bush's team rookie year had 360 completions and 4,400 yards... Cam will not be doing that next year.

I'm not saying he's going to duplicate Bush's numbers, but that's how he should be used. If he's used like that, then the potential is there for him to be a big-time weapon.

If they don't plan on using him like that, then I'm even more perplexed than I already was as to why they took him #8 overall.

[TTHTD]

There's no such thing as a sure thing, but according to the facts draft status is the number one indicator of NFL success by a big margin. Literally just go back through the years and see how 1st rounders (especially top 10 picks) turned out in comparison to 2nd rounders.

To me all this is completely lazy; QBs and WRs? Sure, 1st Round status means something and rarely do you find successful QBs past round 2 or WR past round 4.

This opinion may have been relevant back in the mid-early 2000s when guys like Peterson, Bush and beyond.

Let's look since 2008, almost 10 years:

Top 10 RB
McFadden
2nd Rounders that year
Matt Forte and Ray Rice (probably safe to say both have had better careers)

2009
Knowshon Moreno (1st RB, 12th Pick)
2nd
Lesean McCoy

2010
CJ Spiller
2nd
McCluster
Gerhart
Ben Tate
We'll give this one to Spiller but nothing special all around.

2012
T-Rich
2nd
Isaiah Pead
LaMicahel James
For the sake of the conversation, TRich wins but would have killed your team later.

2015
Todd Gurley FOR NOW
2nds
Yeldon
Abdullah TBD

Sure 60/40, Top 10 wins but it sure as hell isn't a runaway like your post suggests.

If you change the parameters from "1st round RBs" to "RBs taken near the top 10" and look over the last decade the statistics for RB success changes significantly. Almost 75% if I remember right.

[Reljac]

If I remember the stats correctly, only 58% of 1st round running backs make it at the NFL compared to 27% of 2nd round RBs.

However, the argument here is substantially different as Joe Mixon is graded by scouts as a 1st round talent and potential top RB in this class by some, but it's off the field and more importantly the PR part that's the concern.

Meanwhile Christian McCaffrey while a 1st round talent is a complete outlier in terms of what would be considered a standard 3-down RB in the NFL. He arguably lacks power, bench press strength, and solid inside running ability. Historically only 6 RBs have ever had a worse bench press than McCaffrey at the combine:
Donnel Pumphrey, Deanthony Thomas, Derek Combs, Dicenzo Miller, Garry Russell, & Travis Minor.
Mccaffrey BP'd 10 reps.

The worst BP perforamnce by a successful NFL RB at combine was Ladanian Tomlinson with 18 reps. Around 20, you start finding more success amongst RBs. Below 18 there are no truly successful RBs, with Gurley being the most likely hopeful at 17 Reps.

[jonniecakes]

Ended up getting Mixon at 1.03 and CMac was still there. I just like Mixon's long term potential and his skill set. The league is PPR so I hesitated but my perception of Mixon's superior skill set won out.

[49ersFaithful80]

So has anyone changed their opinion here?

Over the summer people were acting like Joe Mixon was the most talented guy to ever step foot on a football field.

So far he's averaging a pathetic 2.9 YPC this season. I don't care if the bengals suck, anyone nearly as talented as you fan boys hyped this guy up to be would have at least done something on the field at this point.

McCaffrey is on an equally awful football team and has at least displayed his elite receiving abilities up to this point.

McCaffrey > Mixon

[nathanq42]

Not like McCaffrey has done much better. Mixon has shown is elusiveness on multiple big runs this year. I'd still rather have Mixon than McCaffrey

[Servo]

Lol wow....so are you even going to mention McCaffrey's prowess as a runner? Or the fact he's averaging 3.0 YPC? Last time I looked, the Panthers were 7-3 and on a recent roll.

I'm not a Mixon homer but the context that just gets overlooked with this guy is incredible:

- "Per PFF, no offensive line has opened up fewer yards before contact per rush than #Bengals have for Joe Mixon (0.30). League average: 1.40. Meanwhile, Andrew Whitworth and the #Rams' OL are opening up 1.90 yards before contact per rush. Gurley saw 1.0 YBC/Attempt in 2016."

- Mixon has also had the Highest % of Rushing Yards Coming After First Contact.

- Cincy also ranks dead last is run blocking

Does that mean Mixon gets no blame for what he's going through? Probably not, but that OL isn't helping anyone in that offense succeed. If not for PPR and two of my leagues aren't, would McCaffrey really be that good of an option?

[Goddard]

Lol why do people keep referring to Mixon supporters as "fan boys?" You McCaffery guys are special. And no, 10 games isn't enough for me to change my opinion on this topic.

[Space Cowboy]

Mixon's line reminds me of Gurley's last year and Gordon's two years ago. I'm not an owner but I'm still willing to pay up if the fit is right.

[49ersFaithful80]

RB's with elite talent can produce without a good offensive line, and you guys were acting like he was Adrian Peterson 2.0 coming out of college.

Point is, he's clearly not the super special talent that you all seemed to think he was and anyone who decided to draft him over Fournette or McCaffrey have been very wrong so far.

[Servo]

Do me a favor 49ers, go pull a list of the 10 worst ranking Offensive Line units and:

1. Let me know what teams are there
2. Does that team have a "stud" RB

If you're truly going to say that run blocking ability and an RB's ability are not correlated, then give me whatever Kool-Aid you're drinking.

[CK_]

It feels wrong to lash out on Mixon and say he isn't talented and that people are wrong. Most people I would hope that had drafted him knew he was going to start out in a crappy situation and that he would be playing in a bot 10 run blocking o line. Did I think it would be dead last? No not me personally but I knew it would suck. I definitely thought he would be making a little bit more wiggle but he looks fine. That offense looks horrible as a whole and the guys at the top seem to be to blame not so much the players on the field.

I would still take Mixon over McCaffery simply because he feels like he has more to offer. I look forward to the changes the bengals hopefully make and the progression in his maturity. Kid is hella young and has the ability to be a stud if he doesn't let his rookie season impact him as hard as it very well could.

TL;DR: Not worried, Mixon over McCaffery and knew it would be a rough rookie year for him.

[CK_]

Do me a favor 49ers, go pull a list of the 10 worst ranking Offensive Line units and:

1. Let me know what teams are there
2. Does that team have a "stud" RB

If you're truly going to say that run blocking ability and an RB's ability are not correlated, then give me whatever Kool-Aid you're drinking.

That is a great point just look at the difference between Gurley last year and this year! And that applies to coaching as well. Look at Gurleys coach this year compared to last.

[AussieMate]

I own Mixon and don't regret taking him. The only thing that would worry me is running behind a line like this for a year killing a players mojo. From a mental point I do wonder what that could do to a person's confidence. I'm sure they have the right people in the organisation helping them with that, but when you are this young how mentally tough can you be. I'm still confident he will be great, has shown some good vision even behind that crappy line.

[Nanananananana]

I own Mixon he was my favorite back coming out this year. I just hope Marvin Jones is gone next year and whoever comes in fixes that line and opens up the offense.