McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby Goddard » Fri May 19, 2017 8:56 pm

spotxc wrote: Fri May 19, 2017 8:50 pm Either way, we can squash it to get back on track or I'll at least stop
Ok fine, one more post lol. I appreciate you saying you'll stop. I'm done as well. I hope both Mixon and McCaffery end up being hall of fame players.

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby spotxc » Fri May 19, 2017 9:05 pm

👍🏼 Squashed. lol. Didn't get to draft either one unfortunately, but both look like they can have big impacts in the league.

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby Weeman » Fri May 19, 2017 10:23 pm

Goddard wrote: Fri May 19, 2017 3:02 pm
49ersFaithful80 wrote: Fri May 19, 2017 2:54 pm However, people don't realize that Mixon was the NEXT RB taken after McCaffery. Literally no one went between the two.
In what literal world was Dalvin Cook not the next RB taken after Cmac...

I almost wish Mixon truthers would simmer down their expectations. This is going to be a situation where a RBBC will take place. To compare Mixon to anyone who has the RB1 starting job on lock is pointless.

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby onetwothree » Fri May 19, 2017 10:28 pm

Weeman wrote: Fri May 19, 2017 10:23 pm I almost wish Mixon truthers would simmer down their expectations. This is going to be a situation where a RBBC will take place. To compare Mixon to anyone who has the RB1 starting job on lock is pointless.
Assuming you're talking about McCaffrey, JStew still on the team. Neither back has anything locked but Hill sucks and at least JStew still can play so Mixon has an easier path to the lion's share of the committee.

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby Weeman » Fri May 19, 2017 11:44 pm

Hill is awful, even worst if he didnt play the browns twice last year. But when healthy Gio is a great player, no where close to the talent of Mixon but a solid contributer. I could see Gio taking third down duties & Hill sharking TDs at times. I like Mixon longterm but right now it's got a few wrinkles. His ppr value is where I'm worried most, the team also has tons of weapons to use now.

As for C-mac he was drafted that high to be a primary weapon & take pressure off Cam. I don't envision him just being an everydown back in the way Mixon is viewed. But a guy they put in the slot, use in the return game & if his talent translates to the NFL then he'll be successful out of the gate. I don't see Jstew being athreat to Cmac. Especially since right now Cmac is the best WR & RB on that team. Looks like KB put on 30 pounds to be a blocker. 😂

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby 49ersFaithful80 » Sat May 20, 2017 7:39 am

Goddard wrote: Fri May 19, 2017 3:02 pm
49ersFaithful80 wrote: Fri May 19, 2017 2:54 pm There is no situation where I'm drafting a 2nd rounder over a top 10 pick.

The statistics say McCaffrey has a much better chance for success.

Repeat after me. "Professional scouts know more than I do by a huge margin. They have access to information that I do not. They get to meet the players, talk to their college coaches, and watch them do drills in real time. They're probably a good bit more informed than me."
I'm just curious, do you rank your rookies just based on NFL draft order in that case? I've already addressed why Mixon was taken in the 2nd several times, so I won't repeat it again. However, people don't realize that Mixon was the NEXT RB taken after McCaffery. Literally no one went between the two.

EDIT: just wanted to mention this as well. Goff was the #1 player in last's years draft well ahead of Dak (similar to Mixon, he fell due to off-field issues). Do you think those professional scouts get it wrong sometimes and would take that back in a heartbeat if they could?

There's no such thing as a sure thing, but according to the facts draft status is the number one indicator of NFL success by a big margin. Literally just go back through the years and see how 1st rounders (especially top 10 picks) turned out in comparison to 2nd rounders.

I can't even count how many times I've heard the idiotic "He only fell to the 2nd because of off the field issues" argument. Those types of players bust at a very high rate, which is why they're falling to the 2nd.

Remember how Dorial Green-Beckham was the ultimate super-freak who only wasn't taken high in the 1st because of off the field issues?

A 2nd rounder is a 2nd rounder. Historical evidence says 1st rounders are WAY more likely to be successful at every position.

I don't rank based off of draft status alone, there are times where you prefer situations/players over others that can overcome a small difference in draft status. But top 10 to the middle of the 2nd is a big difference.

I seriously question your knowledge/experience if Mixon is the number 1 player on your board over players like Corey Davis and Fournette.

There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that says there is a small chance it works out for you but I don't bet against heavy odds like that

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby MEuRaH » Sat May 20, 2017 7:51 am

49ersFaithful80 wrote: Sat May 20, 2017 7:39 amaccording to the facts draft status is the number one indicator of NFL success by a big margin. Literally just go back through the years and see how 1st rounders (especially top 10 picks) turned out in comparison to 2nd rounders.

I can't even count how many times I've heard the idiotic "He only fell to the 2nd because of off the field issues" argument. Those types of players bust at a very high rate, which is why they're falling to the 2nd.

Remember how Dorial Green-Beckham was the ultimate super-freak who only wasn't taken high in the 1st because of off the field issues?

A 2nd rounder is a 2nd rounder. Historical evidence says 1st rounders are WAY more likely to be successful at every position.

I don't rank based off of draft status alone, there are times where you prefer situations/players over others that can overcome a small difference in draft status. But top 10 to the middle of the 2nd is a big difference.

I seriously question your knowledge/experience if Mixon is the number 1 player on your board over players like Corey Davis and Fournette.

There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that says there is a small chance it works out for you but I don't bet against heavy odds like that
I think you make a great point, however your DGB example is something I would argue. Nobody was taking DGB anywhere in the top 5. He was going 7 or 8 mostly. There might not sound like a big difference between 3 & 7, but there is a huge gap between the two statistically in terms of future success in fantasy/NFL careers.

But still, this is a great post and worthy of consideration when considering Mixon vs McCaffrey. Most people are giving Mixon excuses, and those same people aren't looking at a pass-catching RB in McCaffrey being drafted in the top 10 to a RB-needy team that has few weapons elsewhere. That's HUGE.
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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat May 20, 2017 8:02 am

AzTheCrow wrote: Thu May 04, 2017 5:08 pm I just have this feeling McCaffrey will get over-worked and crunched. I love his game though, and this is close but I would choose Mixon
As long as Carolina doesn't try to turn him into a traditional RB or workhorse, I think he'll be fine. He's Reggie Bush. I think people forget, but Reggie Bush's rookie season was really unique:

155 carries
565 rushing yards
121 targets
88 receptions
742 receiving yards
8 touchdowns

In PPR, that's good for 266.7 points.

If Carolina plans on using him like that, then look out.

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby Goddard » Sat May 20, 2017 8:20 am

49ersFaithful80 wrote: Sat May 20, 2017 7:39 am
Goddard wrote: Fri May 19, 2017 3:02 pm
49ersFaithful80 wrote: Fri May 19, 2017 2:54 pm There is no situation where I'm drafting a 2nd rounder over a top 10 pick.

The statistics say McCaffrey has a much better chance for success.

Repeat after me. "Professional scouts know more than I do by a huge margin. They have access to information that I do not. They get to meet the players, talk to their college coaches, and watch them do drills in real time. They're probably a good bit more informed than me."
I'm just curious, do you rank your rookies just based on NFL draft order in that case? I've already addressed why Mixon was taken in the 2nd several times, so I won't repeat it again. However, people don't realize that Mixon was the NEXT RB taken after McCaffery. Literally no one went between the two.

EDIT: just wanted to mention this as well. Goff was the #1 player in last's years draft well ahead of Dak (similar to Mixon, he fell due to off-field issues). Do you think those professional scouts get it wrong sometimes and would take that back in a heartbeat if they could?

There's no such thing as a sure thing, but according to the facts draft status is the number one indicator of NFL success by a big margin. Literally just go back through the years and see how 1st rounders (especially top 10 picks) turned out in comparison to 2nd rounders.

I can't even count how many times I've heard the idiotic "He only fell to the 2nd because of off the field issues" argument. Those types of players bust at a very high rate, which is why they're falling to the 2nd.

Remember how Dorial Green-Beckham was the ultimate super-freak who only wasn't taken high in the 1st because of off the field issues?

A 2nd rounder is a 2nd rounder. Historical evidence says 1st rounders are WAY more likely to be successful at every position.

I don't rank based off of draft status alone, there are times where you prefer situations/players over others that can overcome a small difference in draft status. But top 10 to the middle of the 2nd is a big difference.

I seriously question your knowledge/experience if Mixon is the number 1 player on your board over players like Corey Davis and Fournette.

There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that says there is a small chance it works out for you but I don't bet against heavy odds like that
You make a very solid point and that's something I take into consideration when I draft my players. However, your initial comment made it seem like draft status was the end all, be all.

As for questioning my knowledge/experience because I have Mixon #1 is your right. But I've seen plenty of experts on Twitter, DLF site, scouts, among others having Mixon as their most talented rookie. Fournette and Davis have their own question marks, just like every rookie will always have them. Based on pure talent alone, I like Mixon better, and that's how I draft my players 99% of the time.

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby Goddard » Sat May 20, 2017 8:24 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat May 20, 2017 8:02 am
AzTheCrow wrote: Thu May 04, 2017 5:08 pm I just have this feeling McCaffrey will get over-worked and crunched. I love his game though, and this is close but I would choose Mixon
As long as Carolina doesn't try to turn him into a traditional RB or workhorse, I think he'll be fine. He's Reggie Bush. I think people forget, but Reggie Bush's rookie season was really unique:

155 carries
565 rushing yards
121 targets
88 receptions
742 receiving yards
8 touchdowns

In PPR, that's good for 266.7 points.

If Carolina plans on using him like that, then look out.
Thats actually a great comparison, one I've made myself several times. Which is why I like CMC and think he'll be very good. But I can still like Mixon more and project a higher upside.

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby Reljac » Sat May 20, 2017 9:20 am

49ersFaithful80 wrote: Fri May 19, 2017 2:54 pm "Professional scouts know more than I do by a huge margin. They have access to information that I do not. They get to meet the players, talk to their college coaches, and watch them do drills in real time. They're probably a good bit more informed than me."
You may not know this but this is an argument in favor of Joe Mixon
Scouting the 2017 RBs

On Christian McCaffrey: "Scouts are a little mixed on the 6-foot, 205-pound Stanford back. While they all like him, some love him. His detractors just don't think he can be a three-down back at the pro level. All agree he's going to go in the first round, however."

On Joe Mixon: "He's the wild card of the draft. If there's no incident, he's clearly a high first-round pick. He's maybe the second-best back in the draft. But there are teams who are not going to overlook (the incident).'' ..."He's not on our board. We just don't go for those kind of guys. Can he play, sure. But again, we just took him off the board.''..."He can really run. And he's a really good receiver. But you know when you have an injured guy, you need your doctor to check him out? With this guy, if you take him, you better have a really good P.R. guy.''
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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby Reljac » Sat May 20, 2017 9:29 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat May 20, 2017 8:02 am
AzTheCrow wrote: Thu May 04, 2017 5:08 pm I just have this feeling McCaffrey will get over-worked and crunched. I love his game though, and this is close but I would choose Mixon
As long as Carolina doesn't try to turn him into a traditional RB or workhorse, I think he'll be fine. He's Reggie Bush. I think people forget, but Reggie Bush's rookie season was really unique:

155 carries
565 rushing yards
121 targets
88 receptions
742 receiving yards
8 touchdowns

In PPR, that's good for 266.7 points.

If Carolina plans on using him like that, then look out.
You realize that ALL RBs and FBs on the panthers combined for 44 receptions last year and only 51 in 2015 and Greg Olson only had 80 & 77 receptions in last two years where the other options were dismal.

Panthers had only 300 & 306 receptions each of last two years. Takes a huge leap of faith to think 88 is even close. 40-50 receptions much more likely.

Reggie Bush's team rookie year had 360 completions and 4,400 yards... Cam will not be doing that next year.
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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby Servo » Sat May 20, 2017 11:22 am

49ersFaithful80 wrote: Sat May 20, 2017 7:39 am
There's no such thing as a sure thing, but according to the facts draft status is the number one indicator of NFL success by a big margin. Literally just go back through the years and see how 1st rounders (especially top 10 picks) turned out in comparison to 2nd rounders.
To me all this is completely lazy; QBs and WRs? Sure, 1st Round status means something and rarely do you find successful QBs past round 2 or WR past round 4.

This opinion may have been relevant back in the mid-early 2000s when guys like Peterson, Bush and beyond.

Let's look since 2008, almost 10 years:

Top 10 RB
McFadden
2nd Rounders that year
Matt Forte and Ray Rice (probably safe to say both have had better careers)

2009
Knowshon Moreno (1st RB, 12th Pick)
2nd
Lesean McCoy

2010
CJ Spiller
2nd
McCluster
Gerhart
Ben Tate

We'll give this one to Spiller but nothing special all around.

2012
T-Rich
2nd
Isaiah Pead
LaMicahel James

For the sake of the conversation, TRich wins but would have killed your team later.

2015
Todd Gurley FOR NOW
2nds
Yeldon
Abdullah TBD

Sure 60/40, Top 10 wins but it sure as hell isn't a runaway like your post suggests.

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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby TheEastWest » Mon May 22, 2017 3:07 pm

This is a true toss up for me, Have them both in my top 3 with Lenny .. I'd be still second guessing myself when I was on the clock .. In the end I'd go with Mixon but it's so so close .
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Re: McCaffrey vs. Mixon - who ya got?

Postby RASH » Mon May 22, 2017 3:18 pm

Very Close.

I view it as...

Mixon = Higher rushing yard upside, good receiving PRR potential, High TD/goal line potential (Plus Size)

McCaffrey = More modest rushing yard upside, elite receiving PPR potential, middling/limited TD/goal line potential (Neg Size)

Personally I take Mixon but it is close.
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