Josh Gordon Thread: Reinstatement (Deja Vu)

[joeday]

Wow. I don't think that is accurate to be honest. I don't think if he tests positive "anytime for anything in his entire career" he gets a year suspension. I think it's ok to have your opinion and I also think it's ok to take a conservative approach. But I also hope that you then are consistent and do not have Dez, Julio or DT in your top 5. What happens if Dez gets into a family argument over the holidays and smacks his mom? What does the NFL do? I see that as just as likely to happen. What if DT loses Manning and or has some re-occurring Achilles issues? Not that I think it will happen - I just cant say that it won't. Julio's foot... will it heal, will he reagravate it? NOt sure.

People that label an individual based on his or her actions from when they were 18,19,20,21 - must have forgotten what it was like to be that age. Simple as that. I strongly disagree with your above statement 49faithfull and think that you might have either - A. never made a mistake in your youth, B. Made mistakes but have forgotten them, or C. (most likely in my opinion), do not own Gordon on any team and thus are lower on him - making you slightly frustrated by the hype surrounding him and his value right now. To say that a 22 year old young man is a "huge moron".... Wow. I'm sorry but to me - that speaks volumes about the person's opinion who types that junk. He is an extremely talented kid who is in the process of growing up. Either roster him and hope for the best, or don't. Not a huge deal. If you don't like him fine. I don't think some fantasy football player has any need to call a young athlete a moron. There are no rules that say you have to rank him in the top 5, top 10, top whatever. Rank him where you want him. Most will recognize the risk reward in front of him and gamble on the kid because - he simply is "the" hottest thing going in dynasty right now.

Of Course I made mistakes in my youth, everyone has. But Josh Gordon has done more than that.

How stupid do you have to be to test positive for drugs after already getting tested positive and knowing you have millions of dollars on the line. That, in my opinion, is the definition of a moron.

and for the record I actually own Josh Gordon in multiple leagues, I'm not the type of owner who just overvalues (most people in this thread) players because they own them.

All I'm saying is you're taking on a ton of risk with Gordon. Comparing the risk he carries with any of the players you just mentioned is ridiculous. He could get hurt as well just like any of those players.

Josh Gordon likes doing drugs, that's why he tested positive on multiple occasions. If he tests positive again he's going to have big issues, I don't understand how people don't see the big risk there.

This is the exact scenario that Blackmon was in, I advised caution, and everyone said I was an idiot and that it was extremely unlikely he would be suspended again.

If I can get top 5 value for him, I'm certainly trading him.

Everyone knows there is risk involved. You said you own him so what kind of offers are you sending out while Gordon's value is sky high?

We can all sit here and talk about the past pretty easily. Stuff happened. That's the easy part. The question on everyone's mind is what value does he have going forward?

Are you offering Gordon to a Tavon Austin owner in a 1:1 deal? Randall Cobb? Michael Crabtree?

I'm not gonna defend 49ers here, because I am pretty sure he and I battled on Kaep and Crabtree this time last year, but he did say If he can get top 5 value for him, he's certainly trading him. And in this case I agree with him. Why not trade a guy for close to what you feel is equal on field value (maybe even a touch less) to have your mind at ease with less risk. I am generally risk adversed when it comes to off field issues.

[Jfever]

Fair enough I say. If you are going to get top 5 value. Calvin, AjG, Julio, Dez, DT for Gordon on a one for one deal - I'm cool with it. I just wouldn't be moving Gordon for much less than that is what I'm saying because his upside is reaching / has reached sky high levels now. But again people can value players how they wish and manage their team how they wish. If the off field stuff scares Gordon owners like 49'erfaithfull that much, Maybe an owner like myself could get a nice deal on him. That is what trades, running a team, and dynasty is all about.

I don't agree with labeling a young kid a complete bust, moron, or whatever this early in a career though. Not my style. I guess I'm too optimistic at times / maybe to a fault. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. To each their own.

I for one wish I owned Gordon on more than just 33% of my leagues. risk or not... the value is undeniable. Even if you think he is a moron and bound and determined to get a year long suspension because he likes doing drugs - like 49'ersfaithfull does - I'm sure your not trading him away for D.Jackson, G.Little, R.Cooper, V.Brown, B.Hartline type guys... or even for the 1.01 in 2014 for that matter.

[Lotto4Life]

This is the exact scenario that Blackmon was in, I advised caution, and everyone said I was an idiot and that it was extremely unlikely he would be suspended again.

This is not true.

Care to specify?

Sure. The large font is simply not true.

[joeday]

Fair enough I say. If you are going to get top 5 value. Calvin, AjG, Julio, Dez, DT for Gordon on a one for one deal - I'm cool with it. I just wouldn't be moving Gordon for much less than that is what I'm saying because his upside is reaching / has reached sky high levels now. But again people can value players how they wish and manage their team how they wish. If the off field stuff scares Gordon owners like 49'erfaithfull that much, Maybe an owner like myself could get a nice deal on him. That is what trades, running a team, and dynasty is all about.

I don't agree with labeling a young kid a complete bust, moron, or whatever this early in a career though. Not my style. I guess I'm too optimistic at times / maybe to a fault. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. To each their own.

I for one wish I owned Gordon on more than just 33% of my leagues. risk or not... the value is undeniable. Even if you think he is a moron and bound and determined to get a year long suspension because he likes doing drugs - like 49'ersfaithfull does - I'm sure your not trading him away for D.Jackson, G.Little, R.Cooper, V.Brown, B.Hartline type guys... or even for the 1.01 in 2014 for that matter.

Yeah, I mean if the Calvin or AJG owner approached me and said "hey I like this Gordon kids upside, I will give you Calvin or AJG for him and a 1st" then I do that deal. Those are my two favorite players in the NFL (I have both of their jerseys haha) and I like the head on their shoulders, I like their elite production and pedigrees. I snap accept both. If the Julio, Dem, Dez owner approached me and said "I will give you Julio, Dem or Dez straight up for Gordon" I would say no. Not because I don't believe that is fair value (I have all 3 ranked ahead of Gordon) but because I believe Gordons production, a long with his current hype, is worth more than those 3. If I was in a start up today I would take all 3 over Gordon, but when you are making a trade you want to maximize as much value out of your side as possible, so even though I believe all 3 are > Gordon, I believe his value has gone above them. I would use his current production/hype and get a draft pick with those 3 WRs. All of this is a moot point because all my leagues have passed their trade deadlines haha

[CokeAndBacardi]

You don't see many topics as polarizing as Josh Gordon's value right now. Some say right behind Calvin while others are thinking WR2/3 because a suspension is right around the corner.

Here are my thoughts on every target from the Week 13 game. I think the Jags definitely could have defended Gordon much better on his targets but the awareness shown by the young receiver is really solid:

11:58/1st: The corner is with Gordon to start but he clearly can't keep up after about 30-40 yards. Weeden underthrows the pass while Gordon makes a great adjustment and toe-tap for the long reception. Corner gets turned around and can't really make a play.

7:04/1st: Nice comeback route by Gordon about 15 yards from the LOS. Good move/stiff arm to fight for about 10 extra yards on the sideline.

5:35/1st: Gordon doesn't really separate on the deep route and Weeden underthrows down the sideline again.

15:00/2nd: Intermediate route where Gordon gets open in a zone. Weeden overthrows.

14:57/2nd: Really nice catch in traffic; takes a good hit

12:09/2nd: Solid fade from about 20 yards out; Weeden puts this one right on the money

0:30/2nd: Looks like cover 3 on 2nd-and-5. Gordon sits down nicely for a first down but probably should have turned to the sideline to stop the clock instead of being tackled over the middle.

13:20/3rd: Cover 2; the underneath route by Bess keeps the CB shallow and Gordon finds a hole

12:15/3rd: Gordon gets a rare 1:1 on a well designed route that kept the safeties shallow. Weeden had to lead him for a TD but instead underthrew him for a defended pass

12:02/3rd: Gordon beats his man on the left but takes a huge hit from the safety

0:50/3rd: Gordon fakes the fly route he has pulled a number of times and comes back for a first down

14:23/4th: Easy slant, not much YAC as the LB makes a shoe string tackle

4:09/4th: 95-yard TD: Really basic route against cover 2: LOLB freezes on play-action, the corner covers no one in his zone while the safety stays back to prevent anything over the top, leaving a huge hole. Gordon sheds the safety and outruns the other safety + a corner. Both take good lines, so it's pure speed from there.

0:30/4th: Gordon gets to the whole in cover 2 (not sure why the Jags weren't playing cover 3 here since sideline passes can hurt them late) but Weeden leads him about 1-2 feet too far out of bounds. Nice recognition by Gordon to find that sideline opening.

[balaberda]

How do you guys view something like My Gordon for Cruz plus 2 late firsts?

[joeday]

How do you guys view something like My Gordon for Cruz plus 2 late firsts?

I would, but with the current valuation of Gordon I honestly think you can squeeze more.

[joeday]

Do we seriously need 4 threads on one player though?

[dm1129]

How do you guys view something like My Gordon for Cruz plus 2 late firsts?

I'm curious, are you looking to move Gordon because you feel he's over-valued currently? Also, if you are determined to move him, I would look at acquiring a TE+ instead of swapping WRs based on your roster.

[CokeAndBacardi]

I'm not gonna defend 49ers here, because I am pretty sure he and I battled on Kaep and Crabtree this time last year, but he did say If he can get top 5 value for him, he's certainly trading him. And in this case I agree with him. Why not trade a guy for close to what you feel is equal on field value (maybe even a touch less) to have your mind at ease with less risk. I am generally risk adversed when it comes to off field issues.

No need to defend anyone. Of course you take value for guys. If someone came to me and offered AJ Green and Jimmy Graham for Calvin Johnson, of course I'd take that. Saying "I'll take a king's ransom" or "top-5 value" is the easy part. We'd all do that. Who specifically are you targeting.

I'm trying to drill down on where people value the guys. Since you and 49ers have him outside the top-5, what kind of offers would you send today if you owned him and wanted to get fair value back?

[joeday]

I'm not gonna defend 49ers here, because I am pretty sure he and I battled on Kaep and Crabtree this time last year, but he did say If he can get top 5 value for him, he's certainly trading him. And in this case I agree with him. Why not trade a guy for close to what you feel is equal on field value (maybe even a touch less) to have your mind at ease with less risk. I am generally risk adversed when it comes to off field issues.

No need to defend anyone. Of course you take value for guys. If someone came to me and offered AJ Green and Jimmy Graham for Calvin Johnson, of course I'd take that. Saying "I'll take a king's ransom" or "top-5 value" is the easy part. We'd all do that. Who specifically are you targeting.

I'm trying to drill down on where people value the guys. Since you and 49ers have him outside the top-5, what kind of offers would you send today if you owned him and wanted to get fair value back?

I mean "outside the top-5" is a bit of charged language lol...I have him 6th not 26th haha. I offered Gordon and a 2014 4th rounder (in a 6 player keeper league so that 4th round would be a 10th in a redraft, which has very good value) for AJG. It was instant rejected...I thought it may have a shot, since this owner has Gordon in a few other leagues. I wouldnt trade him for an RB unless its in a deal to get someone elite (like Gordon and Vereen for example, for Shady), simply because I don't believe in trading top 5 (errr top 6 lol) WRs for top 10 RBs in dynasty leagues. If I wanted to get absolute FAIR value back I would offer him to the Julio, Dem, Dez owners straight up. I still consider those type of deals slightly in my favor, but its close enough that I would say its fair.

[Chris_R]

If I asked for like Crabtree and 1.02 is that too crappy? Or is he worth a hold with my team AJG Julio as my first 2 WR next year.

I would not even think about giving Gordon up for Crabtree and a 1st, but that's just me.

Remember about a year ago when Crabtree was a 6-10 (some even said higher) WR? How quickly people turn around on some players.

That's exactly what we should all do. A former ranking has nothing to dodo with current value. Or are you still sending offers for Nicks as a top 10 WR? I remember that too. He was justified being top 10 then he got hurt and hasn't been the same.

I always adjust players accordingly because of stuff like this. An Achilles is a tricky injury and DT is far more athletic then Crabtree as well. He may bounce back but he's not even a start getting piece for Gordon. At least not right now. Maybe of he finishes strong.

[joeday]

Remember about a year ago when Crabtree was a 6-10 (some even said higher) WR? How quickly people turn around on some players.

That's exactly what we should all do. A former ranking has nothing to dodo with current value. Or are you still sending offers for Nicks as a top 10 WR? I remember that too. He was justified being top 10 then he got hurt and hasn't been the same.

I always adjust players accordingly because of stuff like this. An Achilles is a tricky injury and DT is far more athletic then Crabtree as well. He may bounce back but he's not even a start getting piece for Gordon. At least not right now. Maybe of he finishes strong.

I was just making the point that we quickly hype certain players up who come on at the end of seasons, or label others busts that may have a down year or get hurt. No, I do not think Crabtree is a "start getting piece" for Gordon...I didnt say he was...I was crushed in the Crabtree thread last year for saying we should cool our jets a little on him (and Kaep)...what I was saying is we shouldnt crown players so quick and flush others down the toilet just as quick.

[balaberda]

I missed the playoffs and people in my league overvalue first round picks so bad. I was looking to trade Gordon for a similar WR and a few first round picks from a contender.

I would then use my 3 first round picks next year to beef up my team even further. I am just trying to gauge his value.

[Jfever]

...what I was saying is we shouldnt crown players so quick and flush others down the toilet just as quick.

This is true and I agree with it but.... I think it is human nature to get a bit excited about a player that you have on your bench just blowing up and producing unexpectedly. I mean - this is kind of why we play, as it is the challenge of it all to find that diamond in the rough. We also try to be a head of the curve or the competition and in order to do that we at times have to go out on a limb and take on some risk. Not all that different than gambling and when people win when they gamble - they typically get excited. I agree we should try to temper expectations and take a longer (Mutual funds type look) at our assets and show some patience as opposed to panicking too quickly or getting too excited about small sample sizes. Dynasty requires a different mindset than redraft approaches without a doubt.

I try to remind myself of this approach / mind set all the time. I find that I learn quite a bit from my own mistakes (I've made more than my fair share) and that helps but there isn't too much predictability to this hobby and that keeps it challenging and interesting.