Josh Gordon Thread: Reinstatement (Deja Vu)

[wingnutty]

I would say the jury is still out. I don't think anyone has the foresight to know what will become of the future of Gordon. I would disagree that his value will never be higher, we just don't know that. If he continues to play at this level, his value will rise accordingly, likely even surpassing some of those currently above him. Will he continue to play at this level???? Nobody knows, that is just the fact. Hell, he might be the next CJ2K for cripes sake?!

BUT, I would also agree that cashing in now isn't a fool-hearted strategy. This is especially true depending on your team and your particular needs. For me, he's worth holding for the team I have him on. If he busts, like Blackmon potentially has (he is also on my team), then those of us holding will be foolish. If he continues to perform, we'll be geniuses. Who really knows, but he very likely hasn't yet reached his full potential, assuming he keeps his nose clean and the risk is worth it for me and my team.

Now, if I could do a 1-1 for Julio or AJG, or even Gordon + a 2nd for either of them, I'd pull the trigger, but that isn't going to happen in my league right now due to the risks with Gordon.

[kmbryant09]

Until he get suspended again................

Mhmmmm. Personally, if I had Josh Gordon, and I could sell him for top 5 WR value (which after reading this thread, and seeing early top 10 lists, MANY value him as such right now) I would milk this cow for all its worth. I understand that this is not the popular opinion at the moment, but this is exactly what I would do. Gordon is playing out of his mind right now, his value will never be higher than it is now. I am not at all the 'I told you so' type, I just view this the way I would view a stock. Gordon is a highly valuable, albeit highly volatile asset. You could very easily sell him and recieve a very nice prospect & multiple 1st round picks, or many other variations of valuable commodities. After seeing the unthinkable happen with Blackmon, I wouldn't be willing to play roulette with my team. I advise all of you to cash in your chips right now. Even if he never gets suspended, you are still going to get a huge return. Gordon will not be in my personal top 10 WR rankings, there is just wayyy too much risk for me here.

I definitely understand this thinking.

But there is still a TON of upside that balances out the downside. He's putting up a top5 season, despite missing the first 2 games of the season.

I mean, the kid is 22 years old! TWENTY-TWO! He's played in 25 career NFL games, and I'd be interested in seeing his numbers through 25 games compared to some of the elites (Calvin, Julio, Dez, AJ). Oh, and did I mention that he's spent those 25 games catching passes from Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, and Brian Hoyer? And you know Cleveland is hell-bent on finding a franchise QB in this year's draft. Can you imagine if they get their hands on Teddy Bridgewater?

I do agree that if you could trade him straight up for AJ Green, you pull the trigger. But I think his current production, and future upside (even with his character concerns) far outweigh the value of some other Tier 2 WR's like Brandon Marshall, Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, etc.

[DallasN1213]

Until he get suspended again................

Mhmmmm. Personally, if I had Josh Gordon, and I could sell him for top 5 WR value (which after reading this thread, and seeing early top 10 lists, MANY value him as such right now) I would milk this cow for all its worth. I understand that this is not the popular opinion at the moment, but this is exactly what I would do. Gordon is playing out of his mind right now, his value will never be higher than it is now. I am not at all the 'I told you so' type, I just view this the way I would view a stock. Gordon is a highly valuable, albeit highly volatile asset. You could very easily sell him and recieve a very nice prospect & multiple 1st round picks, or many other variations of valuable commodities. After seeing the unthinkable happen with Blackmon, I wouldn't be willing to play roulette with my team. I advise all of you to cash in your chips right now. Even if he never gets suspended, you are still going to get a huge return. Gordon will not be in my personal top 10 WR rankings, there is just wayyy too much risk for me here.

Name 10 better

[henry1jg]

Until he get suspended again................

Mhmmmm. Personally, if I had Josh Gordon, and I could sell him for top 5 WR value (which after reading this thread, and seeing early top 10 lists, MANY value him as such right now) I would milk this cow for all its worth. I understand that this is not the popular opinion at the moment, but this is exactly what I would do. Gordon is playing out of his mind right now, his value will never be higher than it is now. I am not at all the 'I told you so' type, I just view this the way I would view a stock. Gordon is a highly valuable, albeit highly volatile asset. You could very easily sell him and recieve a very nice prospect & multiple 1st round picks, or many other variations of valuable commodities. After seeing the unthinkable happen with Blackmon, I wouldn't be willing to play roulette with my team. I advise all of you to cash in your chips right now. Even if he never gets suspended, you are still going to get a huge return. Gordon will not be in my personal top 10 WR rankings, there is just wayyy too much risk for me here.

Name 10 better

When I post my rankings after the season, I will name 10 WR's that I would rather have over Josh Gordon.

[balaberda]

I am on the fence here too Henry.

The thing with my team is Gordon is my 3rd WR next year behind Julio and AJG. With Reggie Wayne and Nicks/Patterson to fill my WR3 if something happens I might want to just hold him.

I agree though if I could get like a top 3 pick and a top 15 WR/RB then I might just do that. But how many WR can really post around 30 points in any given week. I just gave a top 3 for him as I was trying to save my season so I would want a top 3 back plus something since he has recently blown up.

[henry1jg]

I am on the fence here too Henry.

The thing with my team is Gordon is my 3rd WR next year behind Julio and AJG. With Reggie Wayne and Nicks/Patterson to fill my WR3 if something happens I might want to just hold him.

I agree though if I could get like a top 3 pick and a top 15 WR/RB then I might just do that. But how many WR can really post around 30 points in any given week. I just gave a top 3 for him as I was trying to save my season so I would want a top 3 back plus something since he has recently blown up.

I don't doubt his talent at all, he is immensely talented. The knucklehead factor will always be there though. After watching Blackmon go from many people's top 10 lists, to a guy people won't give a 2nd round pick for, I just feel like the risk outweighs the reward. Especially when you factor in the kind of value that Gotdon could net you in a trade right now.

In situations like balberda's, I definitely understand not wanting to sell, as starting AJG, a healthy Julio, & Gordon the way he is playing right now would be a huge weekly advantage. Although I will say that I would definitely deal him still. I would target players like Cobb, Harvin, or Cruz and see if I can get someone to throw something extra my way, due to Gordon's perceived value at the moment. However, if you're starting something like Gordon, Fitz, Kendall Wright (insert other lower level WR2/3 here), I'm trading Gordon immediately.

[dm1129]

I understand why owners associate Gordon with Blackmon. For me, the two situations are almost totally unrelated. If you look at Blackmon's history, alcohol has been an issue for him for a long time. It's specualtion on my part, but I believe he an alcoholic. I've said it before in this forum, but it bears repeating, alcoholism is a disease. Depending on severity, it can be an absolutely devastating disease that is incredibly difficult to overcome and could very well be something that Blackmon struggles with for the rest of his life. Gordon has a history with marijuana. Sct posted a link to an article earlier in this thread discussing how Gordon may very well still be in stage 2 of the NFL drug program not stage 3. After reading the article, I read the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE POLICY AND PROGRAM FOR SUBSTANCES OF ABUSE. It is entirely possible that after being drafted, Gordon was placed into the drug program based on past behavior(deservedly so) without ever testing positive in an NFL drug test. Once in the program, it is possible for a player to be placed in stage 2 at the discretion of the Medical Director of the program without ever being tested positive by the league. Again, this can be a result of information they gather from the player in interviews about his past behavior. For a player to be placed in stage 3, they have to fail two drug tests while in stage 2. The penalty for the first failed drug test is 4 game supension and for the second failed drug test the penalty is 4-6 games. Gordon tested positive for codeine and was suspended for 4 games but it was later reduced by the league to 2 games. I interpret this as strong evidence that this was his FIRST positive drug test, not his second since being placed in stage 2. I simply do not see the league having the option of a 4-6 game suspension and deciding on 4 then further reducing it to 2. The implications of this if true are signifigant. First, Gordon likely has never tested positive for marijuana in an NFL drug test. Second, Gordon is in stage 2 of the program and if he stays clean for 24 months or two full seasons(whichever is shorter)from the date of the positive drug test for codeine, he will be out of the drug progam. Once a player is in stage 3(like Blackmon), they will remain in the program for the remainder of their career. Also, in stage 3, any failed test results in a minimum of a year suspension. So Gordon may never have tested positive for marijuana since being in the NFL. If he stays clean, he will be out of the program at the end of next season.

I am not posting this as though I know for a fact that this is the situation for Gordon. However, after doing the research, I feel confident it is accurate. Each owner needs to make their own judgement. For me, I believe Gordon could not only be in the tier with Julio and AJG, he could ultimately be better. His production is better than what both of them did their second seasons. He was away from football for a year. He is 22 years old. He only played one year of college football while both AJ and Julio had three seasons against top flight competition to prepare for the NFL. His QB play has been poor. He has had two head coaches and two offensive coordinators in his two seasons. In other words, he has a lot of room for growth and improvement. Gordon in a sense came out of nowhere, so it is human nature for some to dismiss him or at the very least underestimate him. Again, I am not proclaiming him as definitely superior to AJG and Julio, but it is time for owners to seriously think about that possiblity and make their decisions accordingly.

[WelkerTexasRanger]

I understand why owners associate Gordon with Blackmon. For me, the two situations are almost totally unrelated. If you look at Blackmon's history, alcohol has been an issue for him for a long time. It's specualtion on my part, but I believe he an alcoholic. I've said it before in this forum, but it bears repeating, alcoholism is a disease. Depending on severity, it can be an absolutely devastating disease that is incredibly difficult to overcome and could very well be something that Blackmon struggles with for the rest of his life. Gordon has a history with marijuana. Sct posted a link to an article earlier in this thread discussing how Gordon may very well still be in stage 2 of the NFL drug program not stage 3. After reading the article, I read the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE POLICY AND PROGRAM FOR SUBSTANCES OF ABUSE. It is entirely possible that after being drafted, Gordon was placed into the drug program based on past behavior(deservedly so) without ever testing positive in an NFL drug test. Once in the program, it is possible for a player to be placed in stage 2 at the discretion of the Medical Director of the program without ever being tested positive by the league. Again, this can be a result of information they gather from the player in interviews about his past behavior. For a player to be placed in stage 3, they have to fail two drug tests while in stage 2. The penalty for the first failed drug test is 4 game supension and for the second failed drug test the penalty is 4-6 games. Gordon tested positive for codeine and was suspended for 4 games but it was later reduced by the league to 2 games. I interpret this as strong evidence that this was his FIRST positive drug test, not his second since being placed in stage 2. I simply do not see the league having the option of a 4-6 game suspension and deciding on 4 then further reducing it to 2. The implications of this if true are signifigant. First, Gordon likely has never tested positive for marijuana in an NFL drug test. Second, Gordon is in stage 2 of the program and if he stays clean for 24 months or two full seasons(whichever is shorter)from the date of the positive drug test for codeine, he will be out of the drug progam. Once a player is in stage 3(like Blackmon), they will remain in the program for the remainder of their career. Also, in stage 3, any failed test results in a minimum of a year suspension. So Gordon may never have tested positive for marijuana since being in the NFL. If he stays clean, he will be out of the program at the end of next season.

I am not posting this as though I know for a fact that this is the situation for Gordon. However, after doing the research, I feel confident it is accurate. Each owner needs to make their own judgement. For me, I believe Gordon could not only be in the tier with Julio and AJG, he could ultimately be better. His production is better than what both of them did their second seasons. He was away from football for a year. He is 22 years old. He only played one year of college football while both AJ and Julio had three seasons against top flight competition to prepare for the NFL. His QB play has been poor. He has had two head coaches and two offensive coordinators in his two seasons. In other words, he has a lot of room for growth and improvement. Gordon in a sense came out of nowhere, so it is human nature for some to dismiss him or at the very least underestimate him. Again, I am not proclaiming him as definitely superior to AJG and Julio, but it is time for owners to seriously think about that possiblity and make their decisions accordingly.

Great post and I would like to highlight what you said about Blackmon. I am sick of seeing and hearing people complain about Blackmon because he hurt their fantasy team. I've read plenty of people say "just lay off the drink" or other such flippant comments as if it is that easy. I've known people who have struggled with alcoholism (and I agree that this is probably what Blackmon is suffering with) and it is not just a decision you make and then from then on you just don't drink. It's a struggle everyday for many who go through this and especially at moments of extreme emotion. I'm not making excuses for the young man. He has a golden opportunity and it would be a damn shame if he let alcohol ruin it but I just wanted to echo what was said above. Alcoholism is a disease.

[CokeAndBacardi]

What kind of haul are you guys expecting out of Gordon? It's easy to say sell a guy high but what are we talking about here?

[WZA]

I feel like all I ever read on this forum is "Sell now. His value will never be higher."

Whatever happened to holding onto great players? Every thread is sell, sell, sell.

[KMA]

I feel like all I ever read on this forum is "Sell now. His value will never be higher."

Whatever happened to holding onto great players? Every thread is sell, sell, sell.

This. It's a never ending cycle. You could have a 21 year old receiver with the measureables of Calvin, the speed of a young Randy Moss, the longevity of Jerry Rice, Cris Carter's hands, a young Tom Brady/Stafford hybrid FORCING him the ball his entire career and the humility and track record of a priest and SOMEONE will inevitably come screaming SELL HIGH! For what!?! Lol.

[WZA]

Ummm, yeah...I would hold Gordon.

If you're selling, I'm buying. The only WR who averages more yards than Gordon is Megatron. This guy is a bonafide stud WR1...and he's 22 years old. Why would you sell? I just don't get it.

[kmbryant09]

5/110/1 in the first 20 minutes of today's game. The guy is a stud - might finish the season as a top 3 producer despite missing the first 2 games of the season.

[Chris_R]

I feel like all I ever read on this forum is "Sell now. His value will never be higher."

Whatever happened to holding onto great players? Every thread is sell, sell, sell.

Agreed. Too often we hear that on these boards, it's like you can't even enjoy a players growth sometime. We have no clue what Gordon's ceiling is because he has yet to hit his prime and they still don't have a QB. I'm blown away by the fact that he's 22, and playing with 3 below average QB's this year, with every defense knowing he's the 1 legit weapon and he still comes out and dominates. I hope I can ride him all the way to a championship, he's clicking at the right time.

[KMA]

Yeah...I would trade THAT away...