Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.

What's the MOST you'd pay for Kenneth Dixon, using rookie picks?

1.06-1.09
18
10%
1.10-1.12
31
18%
2.01-2.04
50
29%
2.05-2.08
30
17%
2.09-2.12
26
15%
3rd or less
19
11%
 
Total votes: 174

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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby jcc6fd » Tue May 02, 2017 11:30 am

2017 was a deeper overall class by most analysts standards. More RBs were taken in early rounds this year because they were worthy of the picks. If Dixon or Booker were day 2 talents in an RB weak class they would have been picked on day two instead of compensatory round 4 picks.

I don't understand why anyone would try to argue the 2016 RB draft class was close to 2017. There's no argument to stand on here. Additionally if I can get a day 2 back in this draft with a high chance to start and play 3 downs he has to be worth more than an underperforming sophomore with less draft pedigree and a 4 game ban. He's just not worth a first as he was a late first last year in a bad offensive class, hasn't improved his stock, and we're comparing to a clearly superior class.

An early second round valuation is fair here. I can't justify anything more and he's probably closer to a mid-second within my more subjective personal rankings.
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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby Madadamus » Tue May 02, 2017 11:36 am

dlf_jules wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 11:29 am
JFever wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 11:19 am There are votes in this poll that equate K.Dixon to the 2.09-2.12 and the 3rd round or later. These votes to me seem to indicate an incredible lack of understanding of hit / miss rates with draft picks. I find it alarming and completely lacking of the basics needed in this hobby.

Silly to say the least.
How about the hit rate of second-year RBs who were drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft and then mustered 45 scrimmage yards per game, failing to beat out a guy who was traded for a conditional seventh round pick and then cut the prior season?
How exactly did he fail to beat out West?
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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby Jason3123 » Tue May 02, 2017 12:06 pm

I don't understand the obsession with a 4 game suspension? Who cares. Players get suspended all the time today. Danny Woodhead is 32 years old coming off a torn ACL. Terrance West has been on 3 different rosters already. If Dixon does have talent, he can easily surpass these 2.

His head coach loves him. Obviously the franchise believes in his talent. Full speed ahead baby.

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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby Jfever » Tue May 02, 2017 12:09 pm

Jules, Your response says absolutely nothing about the details that lead to the results. Like..... wtf? Says nothing of O-line level of play, says NOTHING about injury, rookie acclimation period, playing while dinged up, depth chart, etc. hmmmm - Not something I'm used to u posting Jules. Convenient to include the over simplified, dumbed down version of broad painted thinking - to come to a general conclusion about a situation that....well.... isn't near simple enough to explain away like your response attempted to. I'd bet (and I'll let you look this up as I'm in my busy time of year coaching in the spring) - The "HIT" rate of 2nd year running backs drafted in the 4th round of the previous year that were still high within their position, and still successful NCAA resume', - compared to the "hit rate" of 3rd round running backs drafted toward the middle of their position with similar level of play and resume' in their NCAA play - is quite similar.

Disappointing way to explain this off to say the least. Its as if we are able to ignore everything relevant and contributing bit of the story - except for the parts that fit our own personal paradigm. We like to include them and ignore most....
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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby dlf_jules » Tue May 02, 2017 12:37 pm

JFever wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 12:09 pm Its as if we are able to ignore everything relevant and contributing bit of the story - except for the parts that fit our own personal paradigm.
We at least agree on this point.
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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby Jfever » Tue May 02, 2017 12:59 pm

Well, I readily admit that the kid could fail. I'm personally not heavily invested at all. I own him on 1 of 6 teams. And, on that team, he isn't even needed. I don't really have a horse in the race aside from the horse that I care deeply about and that is logic and reason. I readily admit that he could be bagging groceries by October. I also understand that he has limitations and that he did not impress through much of his rookie year. But.... to decide and to rationalize an opinion based off of part of a story at this point is, well, shallow.

To hold fast to the opinion that @ 1 calendar year plus a few days - into an NFL career - a top or relatively highly drafted player (in his position of play) drafted player is now worth a 3rd round rookie selection - for comparable value - is - flat out irresponsible thinking. And... that thinking and the posting of that thinking simply needs to get called out for what it is. BS.

Hey for the sake of conversation, I'll state it as clear as I can. At this time of the year it should be mentioned as rookie fever is clearly running rampant again. Hey..... The odds at hitting on any 3rd round rookie selection in a competitive 12 team, 14, team, or 16 team dynasty draft is incredibly low. And, So there is no confusion here; I'd assume quite safe to say, lower than the odds of K.Dixon becoming fantasy relevant while competing against West and the 32 year old D.Woodhead.
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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby dlf_jules » Tue May 02, 2017 1:04 pm

Is there any evidence that positional draft rank matters more than overall draft position?
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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby Concept Coop » Tue May 02, 2017 3:33 pm

JFever wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 10:00 am Laughable: Not really "that" much of a stronger or deeper class.
FTFY
JFever wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 10:00 am Grouping Dixon with Jamaal Williams is [laughable]
They were picked with the very same pick (134). Take your pick, but spare me the hyperbole. Trust your eyes, by all means, but if you don't think the 17' class is miles better than the 16' version, pardon me if I don't.

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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby Concept Coop » Tue May 02, 2017 3:53 pm

Madadamus wrote: Mon May 01, 2017 8:00 pm But the key stat that I look at is that he led all 41 backs that had at least 71 attempts in forced missed tackles per attempt.
Can you source this? If true, it's certainly something that would cause me to take a better look at him. But I'm not sure I buy it. PFF has stated that Ajayi lead the league in forced missed tackles per touch. They also don't grade Dixon very highly, which would be surprising if he's breaking tackles so frequently. Lastly, the only thing a Google search pulls up is the claim on message boards; not an actually article.

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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby smallxl » Tue May 02, 2017 4:26 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Mon May 01, 2017 2:28 pm How do we view Kenneth Dixon right now? Still has the suspension looming, and Woodhead may sap some PPR value, but I have to think he won overall with Baltimore ignoring RBs through the draft & UDFAs, right??

Worth a stab around the 1.10-1.12?
I say 1.09 is the most I would give...i like him
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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby Madadamus » Tue May 02, 2017 5:01 pm

Concept Coop wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 3:53 pm
Madadamus wrote: Mon May 01, 2017 8:00 pm But the key stat that I look at is that he led all 41 backs that had at least 71 attempts in forced missed tackles per attempt.
Can you source this? If true, it's certainly something that would cause me to take a better look at him. But I'm not sure I buy it. PFF has stated that Ajayi lead the league in forced missed tackles per touch. They also don't grade Dixon very highly, which would be surprising if he's breaking tackles so frequently. Lastly, the only thing a Google search pulls up is the claim on message boards; not an actually article.
https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/ ... 6588155906

I got my numbers mixed up but shouldn't change much.
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RB: C. McCaffrey, A. Kamara, E. Elliott, J. Dobbin, J. Mixon, A. Mattison, J. White, L. Bell
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2021 Picks: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10

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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby Concept Coop » Tue May 02, 2017 5:10 pm

Madadamus wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 5:01 pm
Concept Coop wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 3:53 pm
Madadamus wrote: Mon May 01, 2017 8:00 pm But the key stat that I look at is that he led all 41 backs that had at least 71 attempts in forced missed tackles per attempt.
Can you source this? If true, it's certainly something that would cause me to take a better look at him. But I'm not sure I buy it. PFF has stated that Ajayi lead the league in forced missed tackles per touch. They also don't grade Dixon very highly, which would be surprising if he's breaking tackles so frequently. Lastly, the only thing a Google search pulls up is the claim on message boards; not an actually article.
https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/ ... 6588155906

I got my numbers mixed up but shouldn't change much.
Thanks for tracking that down. Really odd for PFF. I'll have to dig up some footage and give him another look in the next little bit.

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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby dlf_jules » Wed May 03, 2017 1:46 pm

Madadamus wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 11:36 am
dlf_jules wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 11:29 am How about the hit rate of second-year RBs who were drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft and then mustered 45 scrimmage yards per game, failing to beat out a guy who was traded for a conditional seventh round pick and then cut the prior season?
How exactly did he fail to beat out West?
Like this:
Dixon-West opportunities.png
Dixon-West opportunities.png (20.32 KiB) Viewed 424 times
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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby dlf_jules » Wed May 03, 2017 1:54 pm

Or, if you prefer, like this:
Dixon-West 0.5 PPR.png
Dixon-West 0.5 PPR.png (10.82 KiB) Viewed 421 times
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Re: Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

Postby CK_ » Wed May 03, 2017 2:23 pm

Concept Coop wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 5:10 pm
Madadamus wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 5:01 pm
Concept Coop wrote: Tue May 02, 2017 3:53 pm

Can you source this? If true, it's certainly something that would cause me to take a better look at him. But I'm not sure I buy it. PFF has stated that Ajayi lead the league in forced missed tackles per touch. They also don't grade Dixon very highly, which would be surprising if he's breaking tackles so frequently. Lastly, the only thing a Google search pulls up is the claim on message boards; not an actually article.
https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/ ... 6588155906

I got my numbers mixed up but shouldn't change much.
Thanks for tracking that down. Really odd for PFF. I'll have to dig up some footage and give him another look in the next little bit.

Not odd for PFF at all. Missed tackles is just one piece of grading, it is not the be all end all. It can be a nice piece. Missed tackles doesn't mean he was a good RB. It's a stat that we give when grading.
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