Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

[spotxc]

I don’t know how I stumbled upon this, but interesting to see how old discussions play out a little

[ninotoreS]

Dixon appeared to be the best RB prospect in '16 after the obvious Zeke and Henry selections, and that meant a lot of people here spent a rookie-draft mid-1st round pick on him. Maybe even some early-1sts by those that were down on Henry. So investment bias was screwing with people's objectivity. I also wonder if Devonta Freeman working out so well for his owners a year before, as another 4th round picked RB with an uninspiring rookie year that became a superstar in his second season, might've been a factor in people's minds.

Putting aside the unlucky injury, the suspension people did know about at this time should've thrown water on their optimism; Dixon as a former Day 3 pick wasn't guaranteed anything in '17, so even if he hadn't gotten injured, the suspension was putting him in a deep hole to start the season in the competition to emerge as Baltimore's starter. Another problem was Harbaugh explicitly telling the media a week after the regular-season ended that "we need another back" -- considering the timing, that seemed like a reliable indicator of the staff's honest opinion of Dixon, since pre-draft coach-speak hadn't kicked into gear yet.

[Sterling Archer]

I don’t know how I stumbled upon this, but interesting to see how old discussions play out a little

Well, I guess you mean how they WILL play out since he hasn't play a down since these discussions occurred.

Collins is better competition than the other RBs on the roster in 2017, but I still think Dixon can prove his worth this year. The downside is that the Baltimore OL sucks and so does Flacco.

I got him relatively cheaply, so I'm not overly invested in him. I just think he's got talent. Keep in mind, the Ravens drafted Dixon in the same draft as Collins.

[ninotoreS]

Baltimore's O-line kicked butt last year. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Keep in mind, the Ravens drafted Dixon in the same draft as Collins.

That doesn't matter at this point. What the Ravens have now seen Collins do for them over 235 touches in their jersey replaces whatever their assessment of him was back in the '16 draft.

[grooner]

I voted 2.01-2.04 back when this poll was up, so I wasn't really on either side.

The thing I take away from this post, and many other posts I have seen on here, is people need to stop being so "certain" and rude to people who don't have the exact same opinion. I have been noticing it more, and it makes me post less and less. Regardless of who was right/wrong (also it still has only been one season and things change quickly in the NFL), calling being clowns or that they lack basic understanding of dynasty etc, doesn't help promote a healthy discussion.

[spotxc]

Yea i agree, nothing is exact, and this was a situation where the player was far that and still had people bashing the non believers for stating their cases. I still dont and never did get the hype on a 4th round rb that should supposedly hold 1st round value because he was drafted in a very week class. I get the wide open depth chart at the time, but that changes very quickly through draft, free agency, and trades let alone his own inability

[Pullo Vision]

I voted 2.01-2.04 back when this poll was up, so I wasn't really on either side.

The thing I take away from this post, and many other posts I have seen on here, is people need to stop being so "certain" and rude to people who don't have the exact same opinion. I have been noticing it more, and it makes me post less and less. Regardless of who was right/wrong (also it still has only been one season and things change quickly in the NFL), calling being clowns or that they lack basic understanding of dynasty etc, doesn't help promote a healthy discussion.

I hadn't read any of this thread until now. I agree with this point- some made their points in very a civil, measured fashion, and some failed to do so.

That said, the West eats boogers post was funny.

[Sterling Archer]

Baltimore's O-line kicked butt last year. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Keep in mind, the Ravens drafted Dixon in the same draft as Collins.

That doesn't matter at this point. What the Ravens have now seen Collins do for them over 235 touches in their jersey replaces whatever their assessment of him was back in the '16 draft.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... nfl-season
Meh, they were average at best. And they lost a starter or two in free agency, IIRC. Odds are not good for this to be a top half of the league OL.

As for Collins and his 235 touches, they valued him so highly that they gave him a... 1 year $630k deal. Dixon is getting paid more than that on his rookie deal. That doesn't signal to me that they value Collins that much or that they will hand him the job.

FWIW, I think they are both legitimate NFL talents. But if Collins misses time, it won't take long for Dixon to show he's the better talent. Even if he doesn't miss time, I think Dixon could feasibly just outplay him this year and earn the job the old fashioned way.

But I get why people are down on Dixon. He missed 4 games his rookie year, played 4 more games with a knee brace while recovering (like 1ypc over that span), had 8 good games as a part timer, and has then been off everyone's radar for over a year now. In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately game, that's going to understandably crush player value. But realistically, he's only 24 and still the same player he was when he put up that nice 8 game stretch. He's the same size as Collins but with better hands.

[Shoreline Steamers]

He's the same size as Collins but with better hands.

Actually from the weights I could find, Dixon outweighs Collins by 10-13 lbs. And that's with both being listed at 5'10". So Dixon actually has a little more size to him, and that could be useful in short-yardage or goal line situations if he can lock up the RB2 job in camp.

[lukkynumber13]

He's the same size as Collins but with better hands.

Actually from the weights I could find, Dixon outweighs Collins by 10-13 lbs. And that's with both being listed at 5'10". So Dixon actually has a little more size to him, and that could be useful in short-yardage or goal line situations if he can lock up the RB2 job in camp.

According to mockdraftable.com, they're both 5'10 but Dixon is 215 and Collins is 217 (those were their weights coming out of school at least)

[Shoreline Steamers]

He's the same size as Collins but with better hands.

Actually from the weights I could find, Dixon outweighs Collins by 10-13 lbs. And that's with both being listed at 5'10". So Dixon actually has a little more size to him, and that could be useful in short-yardage or goal line situations if he can lock up the RB2 job in camp.

According to mockdraftable.com, they're both 5'10 but Dixon is 215 and Collins is 217 (those were their weights coming out of school at least)

Yeah, I guess it's hard to really say. We (the board) get into this type of discussion about players all the time since it seems very difficult to get accurate measurements of a players current weight. Has he added weight from his combine measurements or not?

All over the map on Dixon:
Pro Football Reference - 223 lbs.
Roto - 223 lbs.
NFL - 212 lbs.
The RSP - 215 lbs.
Fox Sports - 223 lbs.
ESPN - 212 lbs.
SBNation - 223 lbs.

Fair point to shrug and wonder what's accurate. I guess we just need to use the eye test to determine how big a guy looks in the end.

[jcc6fd]

Interesting thread in the dynasty advice forum discussing who to drop between Buck Allen and Dixon (and Eifert). I thought it was interesting that some well known posters are recommending the OP drop Dixon rather than Buck. I disagree, but I understand their point that Buck has produced when given opportunity (arguably Dixon has too, it's just been a while).

So the question stands: Is Dixon even the RB2 on his own team? If he's not, the he certainly isn't worth owning, let alone any trade value.

[ninotoreS]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... nfl-season
Meh, they were average at best.

I cite PFF all the time here, and with good reason. But here I will take Football Outsiders' analytics over PFF's anonymous tape grading.

I will explain why.

A strong Adjusted Line Yards score practically guarantees a strong run-game almost regardless of RB talent, and Adjusted Sack Rate is more important than the gross number of pressures, which PFF is subjectively judging and counting.

Now, for inference:

Note how surprisingly good Collins was last year, and note how that correlates with FO's ALY analytic. In PFF's case, they gave Collins the third best RB grade in the NFL last year, but then oppose that with their Ravens OL ranking.

Thus, FO's analytic judgment here is more consistent and correlative with the empirical reality than PFF's.

And even if PFF's dissonant rankings are more truthful, then that just makes Collins '17 season more impressive.

And they lost a starter or two in free agency, IIRC.

This is a good point, if true (is it? you make it sound uncertain, and I haven't checked). However, the line is also getting Marshal Yanda back, which is enormous.

As for Collins and his 235 touches, they valued him so highly that they gave him a... 1 year $630k deal. Dixon is getting paid more than that on his rookie deal.

Meaningless. You're missing that Collins was an exclusive rights free agent. He had no bargaining power at all. Nothing could stop Baltimore from underpaying Collins, so that's what they did, and saved money.

This only proves that the Ravens front-office isn't charitable. It proves nothing regarding the coaching staff's current assessment of Collins.

[osubuckeyeman]

I'm the owner that posted in the advice forum I won't go into that here. Dixon is a tough player to judge moving forward. The injury history and the suspension muddies the water up a bit on value.

[dawgs4life]

I’ve been buying cheap shares of Dixon and Allen this yr for back of roster stashes. Dixon because I believe in his talent, and Allen because the opportunity to leave this mess of a situation next year. If I’m not mistaken he is a FA after this year.