Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

[drbuttermaker]

There are votes in this poll that equate K.Dixon to the 2.09-2.12 and the 3rd round or later. These votes to me seem to indicate an incredible lack of understanding of hit / miss rates with draft picks. I find it alarming and completely lacking of the basics needed in this hobby.

Silly to say the least.

How about the hit rate of second-year RBs who were drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft and then mustered 45 scrimmage yards per game, failing to beat out a guy who was traded for a conditional seventh round pick and then cut the prior season?

Not sure about the hit rate, but replace "45" with "15.5" & "was traded for a conditional seventh round pick and then cut the prior" with "who failed to live up to his free agent hype and was cut at the end of the" and you have Freeman.

[Concept Coop]

https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/ ... 6588155906

I got my numbers mixed up but shouldn't change much.

Thanks for tracking that down. Really odd for PFF. I'll have to dig up some footage and give him another look in the next little bit.

Not odd for PFF at all. Missed tackles is just one piece of grading, it is not the be all end all. It can be a nice piece. Missed tackles doesn't mean he was a good RB. It's a stat that we give when grading.

How bad at everything else would he have to be to still grade out on the low end of average while being the best in the league at making people miss? I'm certainly open to there being a reasonable explanation that's simply over my head at the moment. But based on their +3/-3 per play scale, with only 88 runs to grade...just seems odd to me. There's not much on Youtube, but I'm certainly interested in checking him out again when I get the chance.

[Madadamus]

How about the hit rate of second-year RBs who were drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft and then mustered 45 scrimmage yards per game, failing to beat out a guy who was traded for a conditional seventh round pick and then cut the prior season?

How exactly did he fail to beat out West?

Like this:
Dixon-West opportunities.png

So we're just ignoring the fact that he was injured and was wearing a brace for a few weeks before he was 100%? They brought him along slowly and he probably wasn't 100% confident until late in the season. West was actually serviceable for them on early down work. Dixon struggled in pass protection, but to say he failed to beat out West and using charts doesn't tell the whole story.

[Concept Coop]

So we're just ignoring the fact that he was injured and was wearing a brace for a few weeks before he was 100%? They brought him along slowly and he probably wasn't 100% confident until late in the season. West was actually serviceable for them on early down work. Dixon struggled in pass protection, but to say he failed to beat out West and using charts doesn't tell the whole story.

This may all be true, but it's an objective fact that he didn't beat out West for the staring job. Now why that is and what that means can be debated, of course.

[Madadamus]

So we're just ignoring the fact that he was injured and was wearing a brace for a few weeks before he was 100%? They brought him along slowly and he probably wasn't 100% confident until late in the season. West was actually serviceable for them on early down work. Dixon struggled in pass protection, but to say he failed to beat out West and using charts doesn't tell the whole story.

This may all be true, but it's an objective fact that he didn't beat out West for the staring job. Now why that is and what that means can be debated, of course.

I understand that, but again it doesn't tell the whole story. We're not talking about Ezekiel Elliott here. He was a day 3 pick, and the incumbent starter was performing well enough early in the season that it takes a while to crack through the lineup.

It took a few weeks before C.J. Prosise was able to overtake Christine Michael.

Let's not forget, the Ravens cut Justin Forsett (the 2nd time) when Dixon was coming back which tells me they had faith in West and Dixon carrying the load for the rest of the season.

[Concept Coop]

Let's not forget, the Ravens cut Justin Forsett (the 2nd time) when Dixon was coming back which tells me they had faith in West and Dixon carrying the load for the rest of the season.

That's a good point. It also says something that their only addition to the unit was Danny Woodhead. We'll see if that was a comment on West, Dixon, or both--and how they take advantage of that soon enough.

[dlf_jules]

So we're just ignoring the fact that he was injured and was wearing a brace for a few weeks before he was 100%? They brought him along slowly and he probably wasn't 100% confident until late in the season. West was actually serviceable for them on early down work. Dixon struggled in pass protection, but to say he failed to beat out West and using charts doesn't tell the whole story.

I'm not ignoring any of that. Indeed, that's why I broke everything down by week: to show that even by the end of the season, Dixon hadn't usurped West.

[_yeti]

I voted 3rd round or later. The fact that 38% of votes say he is worth a 1st is mind boggling to me. This is like Rawls all over again, except that I prefer Rawls to Dixon.

Comparing this to the Jeremy Hill poll that is currently running, I can't believe the disparity in favor of Dixon. I know Hill hasn't lived up to the original promise he showed his first year and has plenty of knocks of his own but he has still produced a great deal more than Dixon and is better when it comes to my eye test. I would take most of the 2nd or 3rd tier rookie backs over Dixon. This isn't because I don't know their hit/miss rate, it's because Dixon is already a miss in my opinion. Maybe he gives some 2017 production due to situation and lack of competition but 2017 is it. Not worth the capital of a 1st or 2nd and their potential value, even considering their potential to miss.

[forrestmoons]

I think it's telling that they gave him most of the touches towards the end of the season and didn't draft a RB as well. They signed some pass-catching help with Woodhead, so I think his path to producing is clearer than most of the top 4 rookie RBs.

[Johnny Canuck]

Just gonna leave this roto blurb here....

ESPN Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley believes "everything has fallen in place" for Terrance West this offseason.
Hensley notes the hiring of coach Greg Roman, the four-game suspension of Kenneth Dixon, and the lack of competition added in free agency or the draft as wins for West. Danny Woodhead might quibble with the last point, but he is probably not a real threat to West's work on early downs. Coach John Harbaugh said West was atop the depth chart at the end of March, and he has a good chance to stay there throughout at least the early part of the season. May 4 - 10:43 AM

Take it for what it is, only a blurb.

IMO it basically reads as, Woodhead will be the backup and West will be given a shot to run away with the job. If West doesn't, Dixon will be mixed in, and he'll have his chance to run with the job after his suspension. The way this is shaping up, I'd expect almost the exact same usage as last season, with Dixon splitting the load by the end of the season, and the frustrated fantasy community clamoring for more opportunities. The only problem is, I would anticipate it to be slightly worse as woodhead is a competent backup and will take the odd series here and there - turning it into a three headed rbbc (compared to a 2 headed one last season); and therefore further diminishing the usefulness of Dixon in fantasy

[Jfever]

I voted 3rd round or later. The fact that 38% of votes say he is worth a 1st is mind boggling to me. This is like Rawls all over again, except that I prefer Rawls to Dixon.

Comparing this to the Jeremy Hill poll that is currently running, I can't believe the disparity in favor of Dixon. I know Hill hasn't lived up to the original promise he showed his first year and has plenty of knocks of his own but he has still produced a great deal more than Dixon and is better when it comes to my eye test. I would take most of the 2nd or 3rd tier rookie backs over Dixon. This isn't because I don't know their hit/miss rate, it's because Dixon is already a miss in my opinion. Maybe he gives some 2017 production due to situation and lack of competition but 2017 is it. Not worth the capital of a 1st or 2nd and their potential value, even considering their potential to miss.

I'd like to focus on the underlined.

Understanding hit to miss rate of 3rd round rookies..... Jumping the gun with the opinion that a 2nd year rb is ALREADY a miss....

It strikes me as strange is all. I'm of the mind set that this opinion (and you are certainly welcome to your own opinion) - couldn't be too much further from the way I see things. I don't at all like permanently labeling a 2nd year 23 year old rb with 78 total rushing attempts in 11 games.

To the point here...... it is the premature / false confident approach of the above post that pushes me to even get involved here. I mean.... If a 15 year old screws up - Are they a screw up for life? Extreme example but .... it is on the same line of thought. AND, Jules, if anything, you are straight up IGNORING the entire point of cause and effect and simply looking at box scores, touches, snap count. Disappointing, considering.

[Concept Coop]

I'd like to focus on the underlined.

Understanding hit to miss rate of 3rd round rookies..... Jumping the gun with the opinion that a 2nd year rb is ALREADY a miss....

It strikes me as strange is all. I'm of the mind set that this opinion (and you are certainly welcome to your own opinion) - couldn't be too much further from the way I see things. I don't at all like permanently labeling a 2nd year 23 year old rb with 78 total rushing attempts in 11 games.

To the point here...... it is the premature / false confident approach of the above post that pushes me to even get involved here. I mean.... If a 15 year old screws up - Are they a screw up for life? Extreme example but .... it is on the same line of thought. AND, Jules, if anything, you are straight up IGNORING the entire point of cause and effect and simply looking at box scores, touches, snap count. Disappointing, considering.

This is a straw man. In this very thread you laughed at me for preferring Williams to Dixon. Williams is a 22 YO rookie with 0 snaps. Your stance on Dixon/Williams is no more sound than the stance of those willing to move on from Dixon as a potential difference maker. It's all projection; and the earlier you are confident enough to make a projection, the more the hobby rewards you when you are right. Any line you want to draw--when are we "jumping the gun"?--is arbitrary.

Jules very clearly identified the data points that led to his stance on Dixon. You may value those data points differently, or have another collection of data points altogether, but that doesn't discredit his stance.

[dlf_jules]

I agree that it's wrong to call Dixon a miss. I have, however, updated my belief about the probability of his success.

[spider321]

Dixon is really good.
West eats boogers.
Woodhead has cooties.
I own Dixon.

This is the level of honesty we need to start displaying in our posts around here.

[Johnny Canuck]

Dixon is really good.
West eats boogers.
Woodhead has cooties.
I own Dixon.

This is the level of honesty we need to start displaying in our posts around here.

this is great