Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

[NattyDread]

Mid-to-late 2nd. Overrated.

Ditto for me.

[AZK]

I'd pay the 1.08 or later this year, I liked him better this time last year then the tier 3 RB's in this draft. Melvin Gordon was being sold for mid - late 1st this time last year by impatient owners.

[jcc6fd]

So let me get this straight. An underperforming 4th round pick with a 4 game suspension and a backfield with serviceable replacements in Woodhead and West is somehow worth more than Kareem Hunt? There's no way he's worth a 1st now. Early 2nd is optimistic and I'd be in the market in the mid-second. He hasn't proven anything to make me think he's more valuable than any rookie drafted into a similar (or better) opportunity to start.

[Johnny Canuck]

That poll is ridiculous. Should be a mid-late 2nd at best. It's time to temper expectations fellas.

While Dixon must have some 'shine' on him (based on the results of the poll), alot of ppl are forgetting about the other RBs on that roster, namely: West and Woodhead.

West was the starter for most of the year, and only toward the end of the season did Dixon start to split time with West. Dixon didn't take the starting role and run with it, all he managed to get was a timeshare split. I personally think Dixon is more talented, but for whatever reason, this coaching staff seems to like/play West a fair bit, and that can't be ignored.

Don't forget that Dixon is suspended for the first four games of the season too. Wouldn't be shocked to see either of West/Woodhead start, and then have Dixon 'work' his way back into the rotation. Regardless the starting RB position will be available to seize in those first four games, all it takes is one guy to take it and not look back.

Also, although Woodhead is older, just pretending he's not around would be foolish. Obviously Baltimore signed him for a reason, maybe it's to mentor Dixon, maybe it's to have a competent backup, or maybe it's to run Woodhead into the ground until they can draft another RB next year.

I would anticipate that IF Dixon is relevant at all this season, it won't be until week 8ish, and even then would bet Balty takes a RB early next season.

Would much rather have a player with a easier path to relevance like Samaje Perine

[Jfever]

Where would he go if drafted in this class? 5th round? 6th round? He didn't do anything special as a rookie and got popped for PEDs.

How can we be valuing this kid more than players drafted higher than him in a much stronger, deeper class? A first round pick is laughable to me. I'd happily add to him for the likes of Jamaal Williams.

Even if he manages to take the job--what's half a season of low end RB2 production in a time share? He'll promptly be replaced next season. He's a rotation guy and nothing more. He was simply talked up due to a weak class. If he came out this year, he'd be lost in the mix as the fringe 2nd round rookie pick he is.

Laughable..... Not really "that" much of a stronger or deeper class. Give it a few years before you make that leap. Patience is a virtue in dynasty leagues. Those that voted for 3rd round or later are missing the big picture. Grouping Dixon with Jamaal Williams is .... laughable.

unreal people. unreal.

[Jfever]

^^^Looks like a Ravens Homer in here...

As a diehard Colts fan, I guess you'd have to call me a "Ravens Homer" as well, because I agree with the above assessment of Dixon's talent

As a Vikings homer, I agree with the above short response. The assessment that you were commenting on (Bravo15), and accusing the guy of being a homer wasn't biased. Your short sighted quick to the trigger assessment of Dixon however, is biased and without merit. Try looking for cause and effect for level of play, prior to labeling a young sophomore player a bust while simultaneously hinting toward brand new rookies being ranked higher without ever taking an NFL snap.

annoying

Oh.... Most I bet haven't forgotten about the other rb actually. Thing is some here seem to have probably forgotten that D.Woodhead is 32 and coming off a significant knee surgery that ended his age 31 season..... and T.West has been slightly better than a JAG / space filler for about 2 seasons. After Dixon's suspension. It'll be his job and if he falters (which is still likely), they will draft their Rb in 2018. Makes me think that Baltimore is likely thinking of adding a FA. Blount maybe? Woodhead won't last much longer in the NFL. Not sure why he has such a cult following on this site. HE IS 32 and coming off an ACL surgery. C'mon.... lets try a little to be consistent around here.

[jcc6fd]

Laughable..... Not really "that" much of a stronger or deeper class. Give it a few years before you make that leap. Patience is a virtue in dynasty leagues. Those that voted for 3rd round or later are missing the big picture. Grouping Dixon with Jamaal Williams is .... laughable.

unreal people. unreal.

While I agree with your sentiment that owners need to be more patient, this class is decidedly deeper than 2016 at RB. I know the intellectual sounding take right now is to bash this class and act like it was totally overrated (and it was to an extent) but it was still a very good class while 2016 was a horrendous class. Let's compare by draft position:

2017 RB's taken by Round:
1st - 2 (in top 10)
2nd - 2 (1 in top 10 and the other, Mixon, only falling due to character concerns)
3rd - 4 (with Kamara going at the 3rd in the round)
4th - 7 (with Perine going 7th in the round)
5th - 4
6th - 5
7th - 6

2016 RB's taken by round:
1st - 1 (Zeke take at the same spot as Fournette and it was considered a reach at the time)
2nd - 1 (Henry taken 14th)
3rd - 2 (Drake taken at 10 and Prosise at 27)
4th - 3 (both Booker and Dixon were compensatory picks at the back of the round)
5th - 6 (most notably Howard slipped this low)
6th - 6
7th - 4

So In each every round 1-4 more backs were taken in 2017 and even 2 of the fourth rounders in 2016 were practically 5th rounders. Additionally 30 RBs were taken in total in 2017 while 23 were taken in 2016. One could see how similar to other positions that even the backs that were taken in 2016 were overdrafted because of the positional scarcity during that year. From a draft stock standpoint 2017 absolutely crushed 2016, but it wasn't as good as many hoped it would have been with some studs staying in school and others falling for various reasons.

[CK_]

http://drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

30 RBs drafted compared to 23 does make it a deeper class. With 8 of those going in th first 3 rounds vs 4. That's a basic form of what you need to know as far as deepness at the most basic level.

Nevertheless I am unsure that you can pay higher than a mid 2nd in his current condition, others have already mentioned he is suspended the first 4 games already. He also didn't have much of any competition last year and the "talent" did not show up as much as I should/could have. Used to run tape for him at PFF when he was at Louisiana Tech and he was meh at best. He was never anything spectacular but got elevated for opportunity. I mean the Ravens did sign Woodhead....

[Madadamus]

You also have to consider that NFL GM's saw that the depth of this class was strong over a year ago. I think most draft analysts had guys like Booker and Dixon in the day 2 range pretty easily. There was a lot of defensive talent, so I think some guys fell because they knew they'd probably get to choose from twice the amount of backs this year then were available in that round 3 range last year.

Draft pedigree means a lot, but some guys fall in the draft for a variety of reasons and sometimes it's just a game of chicken because there could be a lot of sameness or the value might be on the defensive side of the ball.

[Jfever]

This on going Woodhead crap gets to me. HOW many 32 year old running backs coming off of a season ending ACL injury can anyone name that gets the following and praise that Danny Woodhead gets? I mean the Chargers let him go, and they NEED a pass catching back to pair with M.Gordon right? They didn't even draft or sign that guy. No one wondering why SD let him go? Nope...... weird.
Anyway, NOT comparing apples to apples here. Where one draft is deep in one, two, three, whatever positions, another is deep or shallow in others. This draft of 2017 is not near as good as many were touting it. It is NOT deep or even really that good at wr, Qb, OL, LB. It is deeper than previous (recent) rb, Te, DT, DE, and DB drafts. It isn't really heavy on top end talent. The draft locations for many were less than ideal. The on and on droning about how elite this class will be has driven me away from this site more than ever since I started coming here a few years back. I find it ridiculous how people come to these conclusions and how group think grabs a hold. It just flat out isn't true. This Class is weak, very weak at qb and wr. I think it is middle of the road at rb and strong at TE. Comparing draft classes is is a futile effort. Pointless even. Why bother comparing Dixon to this years class? He isn't in it. Just as not one single running back from this class has any NFL experience. And... to be as honest as possible, I think it takes 2-3 years before we can accurately say how strong, weak, talented, or successful a draft class is or isn't. Maybe I'm in the minority, but, to me, the 2017 draft class is nowhere near as pumped up as many have been touting.

So when we say in the dynasty community that X number of rb were taken in X rounds this year vs X amount in X rounds last year.... it doesn't necessarily mean what you think it does AT ALL. It means that in each and every year all 32 NFL teams compare the current talent pool of ALL positions to the "current available talent pool of all positions". NOT the previous or the subsequent talent pools of the skilled positions. When we compare them then after the fact, it is a trivial / meaningless exercise that doesn't take all the necessary variables into consideration. It is a sly way to influence perception of value.

Happens alot around here.

[Jfever]

There are votes in this poll that equate K.Dixon to the 2.09-2.12 and the 3rd round or later. These votes to me seem to indicate an incredible lack of understanding of hit / miss rates with draft picks. I find it alarming and completely lacking of the basics needed in this hobby.

Silly to say the least.

[AZK]

So let me get this straight. An underperforming 4th round pick with a 4 game suspension and a backfield with serviceable replacements in Woodhead and West is somehow worth more than Kareem Hunt? There's no way he's worth a 1st now. Early 2nd is optimistic and I'd be in the market in the mid-second. He hasn't proven anything to make me think he's more valuable than any rookie drafted into a similar (or better) opportunity to start.

One that averaged over 4 YPC last year, on a team with a hobbled Flacco and no real passing threat, and also has a 3 down skill set sure. I'd still pay that. PED suspensions don't deter my thinking much long term. I'd put him above Hunt athletically, and a 32 yr old back coming back from ACL surgery doesn't really sway my thinking nor does West. I definitely have him above Kamara, and Foreman currently, although I could see a good argument for Hunt. We don't have to agree I'm just giving my opinion.

[CK_]

Me comparing the 2 classes was stated clearly as being "deepness at the most basic level". I was clear on that no?

And Kenneth Dixon is primarily used as a pass catcher and another veteran pass catcher was brought in is a bit suspicious. Even if Woodhead is a bit more limited as a whole. Look at the year they had with Forsett? They obviously can make even an aging property viable for 1 more year. And ACL isn't the be all end all anymore and it shouldn't be listed as such either.

[CK_]

There are votes in this poll that equate K.Dixon to the 2.09-2.12 and the 3rd round or later. These votes to me seem to indicate an incredible lack of understanding of hit / miss rates with draft picks. I find it alarming and completely lacking of the basics needed in this hobby.

Silly to say the least.

2.09-2.12 and 3rd round is low for someone that atleast showed he could be somewhat productive on an offense. The same way 1.6-1.09 is a little high. People will value how they value and will have their reasonings behind it. Silly it might be to some but it's no reason to bash on someone for making the choices they make.

[dlf_jules]

There are votes in this poll that equate K.Dixon to the 2.09-2.12 and the 3rd round or later. These votes to me seem to indicate an incredible lack of understanding of hit / miss rates with draft picks. I find it alarming and completely lacking of the basics needed in this hobby.

Silly to say the least.

How about the hit rate of second-year RBs who were drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft and then mustered 45 scrimmage yards per game, failing to beat out a guy who was traded for a conditional seventh round pick and then cut the prior season?