Kenneth Dixon Value *PVP POLL* 5/1/17

[Jfever]

Good points and good discussion. I'm not at all saying with any confidence that Dixon is FAR superior than the rookie Williams. To say it's a straw man is if anything trolling for an argumentative response. I didn't bring it up. I simply responded to the interjection that one has that opinion based off of very limited information / data from Dixon at this point in time. I find it off is all and I don't think I'm alone on that line of thought. Again, it is jumping to conclusions with little evidence that I have an issue with here. I agree that being ahead of the curve is a good thing in this hobby. I'm hoping that some can see that there is NO way to be as certain as some seem to be on Dixon being a miss. I'm also hoping that some that have a point of view that he is somehow now worth a 3rd round rookie pick... see that that point of view is an extreme "glass half empty" viewpoint on one side (Dixon value and likeliness of production and success, and extreme glass half full (on the 3rd round pick hitting likely hood) on the other side.

[Concept Coop]

Fair enough. I saw pivoting from Dixon to generic young player as a straw man. I saw taking "miss" literally--and implying a level of certainty that I'm sure wasn't intended--as a straw man. It wasn't productive of me to point it out as an accusation, however, so I apologize.

[Sterling Archer]

Where would he go if drafted in this class? 5th round? 6th round? He didn't do anything special as a rookie and got popped for PEDs.

How can we be valuing this kid more than players drafted higher than him in a much stronger, deeper class? A first round pick is laughable to me. I'd happily add to him for the likes of Jamaal Williams.

Even if he manages to take the job--what's half a season of low end RB2 production in a time share? He'll promptly be replaced next season. He's a rotation guy and nothing more. He was simply talked up due to a weak class. If he came out this year, he'd be lost in the mix as the fringe 2nd round rookie pick he is.

Watch the New England game last year. His tape is pretty impressive and he got better as the season wore along.

Based just on the game log: He averaged 3.5 YPC and 5.3 YPR. His production was all volume based. James White had roughly the same impact on 5 touches. He dominated in the SB. I'm not sure anybody here is offering a high 3rd round pick for him, however.

I'm late to this, but c'mon, the guy was coming back from injury and I think he was wearing a brace. Have a look at his last 8 games. He really stepped it up. He's way more versatile than James White and has a clearer path to touches with RB1 upside (points per game obviously since he's missing 4 games). James White is a one dimensional role player. Really weird to even bring him up in the same conversation.

[Concept Coop]

Watch the New England game last year. His tape is pretty impressive and he got better as the season wore along.

Based just on the game log: He averaged 3.5 YPC and 5.3 YPR. His production was all volume based. James White had roughly the same impact on 5 touches. He dominated in the SB. I'm not sure anybody here is offering a high 3rd round pick for him, however.

I'm late to this, but c'mon, the guy was coming back from injury and I think he was wearing a brace. Have a look at his last 8 games. He really stepped it up. He's way more versatile than James White and has a clearer path to touches with RB1 upside (points per game obviously since he's missing 4 games). James White is a one dimensional role player. Really weird to even bring him up in the same conversation.

That's the game I was pointed to, so that's the game I commented on.

I don't see RB1 upside in Dixon. If path to starter touches is so valuable, I'm more inclined to invest in Terrence West. And White is one dimensional, but at least he's really good at that one thing. I can't say the same for Dixon, personally.

[zelldawg26]

Dixon started to come through toward the end of the season last year. I don't see West as "the guy" long term. We will see though. Now is a good time to buy Dixon and sell West I think.

[Sterling Archer]

Based just on the game log: He averaged 3.5 YPC and 5.3 YPR. His production was all volume based. James White had roughly the same impact on 5 touches. He dominated in the SB. I'm not sure anybody here is offering a high 3rd round pick for him, however.

I'm late to this, but c'mon, the guy was coming back from injury and I think he was wearing a brace. Have a look at his last 8 games. He really stepped it up. He's way more versatile than James White and has a clearer path to touches with RB1 upside (points per game obviously since he's missing 4 games). James White is a one dimensional role player. Really weird to even bring him up in the same conversation.

That's the game I was pointed to, so that's the game I commented on.

I don't see RB1 upside in Dixon. If path to starter touches is so valuable, I'm more inclined to invest in Terrence West. And White is one dimensional, but at least he's really good at that one thing. I can't say the same for Dixon, personally.

West has played for 3 teams in 3 years with an average ypc of 3.9. Baltimore invested $1.8M for 1 year in West. They don't see him as the future, yet they didn't draft any RBs. Dixon's 4.9 ypc and 25 rec in the last 8 games of the season are why he has RB1 upside. 200 carries and 50 rec typically gets you into the back end of the top 12 even if you're an average talent on an average offense.

[Concept Coop]

West has played for 3 teams in 3 years with an average ypc of 3.9. Baltimore invested $1.8M for 1 year in West. They don't see him as the future, yet they didn't draft any RBs. Dixon's 4.9 ypc and 25 rec in the last 8 games of the season are why he has RB1 upside. 200 carries and 50 rec typically gets you into the back end of the top 12 even if you're an average talent on an average offense.

I'm commenting on the irony in the suggestion that Dixon's value lies in only having West (and Woodhead) in front of him, considering that West doesn't have anyone in front of him. Why is it so clear that they don't see West as the future, but do Dixon? Why do we assume that not drafting a RB was a positive comment on Dixon and not West (or Woodhead)? Especially considering they brought in a 3rd down back and not a bruiser?

I don't really like West and won't be investing in him, FTR. I'm just not seeing what separates Dixon from Joe or Jamaal Williams, to pick a couple names. Give me both over KD, by the way.

[Sterling Archer]

West has played for 3 teams in 3 years with an average ypc of 3.9. Baltimore invested $1.8M for 1 year in West. They don't see him as the future, yet they didn't draft any RBs. Dixon's 4.9 ypc and 25 rec in the last 8 games of the season are why he has RB1 upside. 200 carries and 50 rec typically gets you into the back end of the top 12 even if you're an average talent on an average offense.

I'm commenting on the irony in the suggestion that Dixon's value lies in only having West (and Woodhead) in front of him, considering that West doesn't have anyone in front of him. Why is it so clear that they don't see West as the future, but do Dixon? Why do we assume that not drafting a RB was a positive comment on Dixon and not West (or Woodhead)? Especially considering they brought in a 3rd down back and not a bruiser?

I don't really like West and won't be investing in him, FTR. I'm just not seeing what separates Dixon from Joe or Jamaal Williams, to pick a couple names. Give me both over KD, by the way.

I don't see the irony. Looking at the season carefully, you'll notice West's snaps declined as Dixon got healthy. Dixon was the better runner (last 8 games, 73 carries @ 4.9 vs. 82 @ 4.0). And the all important stat for PPR leagues, Dixon had 35 targets vs. 27. Baltimore clearly brought Dixon up to speed slowly, though, but he still outsnapped West 240 to 205 during those last 8 games.

Plus, if Baltimore really liked West wouldn't they have locked him up for a few years rather than 1-year $1.8M? That's cheap even for a backup. But not drafting an RB is definitely a vote of confidence in West. I just think it means they trust him to hold the fort down until Dixon gets back from suspension. Dixon is clearly the guy with upside whereas the book seems to be written on West. Occasionally you see later bloomers (Thomas Jones) but it's usually on their second team. West has been on 3 teams so far and looked pedestrian on all of them. Injuries held Dixon back, but he at least showed promise of high upside in his last 8 games.

I'm a Jamaal Williams fan (not Joe) but still I'd take Dixon over him. I like 3 down backs. JW is a 2 down back. I'd only consider him in 0ppr leagues. Both Dixon and Jamaal have upside as goal line backs, though.

[maxhyde]

I think I might be more on Concept Coop's side of this.
Dixon is nowhere near a 1st for me but if you want to choose him over the round 4/5 RB's like Joe Williams/Jamaal Williams/Gallman/Mack/McNichols I am OK with that...just don't think it is a slam dunk he is better than any of them or having a bigger role than any going forward either. He should get a good shot to be the guy in BAL but West wasn't horrible last year either and I think Woodhead is going to keep being Woodhead so it isn't like anyone in BAL is heading for bellcow territory imo

If I were solely measuring based on strength of class (flawed I know) but 4/5th round picks this year I might prefer over 4/5ths from last year

[Sterling Archer]

I think I might be more on Concept Coop's side of this.
Dixon is nowhere near a 1st for me but if you want to choose him over the round 4/5 RB's like Joe Williams/Jamaal Williams/Gallman/Mack/McNichols I am OK with that...just don't think it is a slam dunk he is better than any of them or having a bigger role than any going forward either. He should get a good shot to be the guy in BAL but West wasn't horrible last year either and I think Woodhead is going to keep being Woodhead so it isn't like anyone in BAL is heading for bellcow territory imo

If I were solely measuring based on strength of class (flawed I know) but 5th round picks this year I might prefer over 5ths from last year

FWIW, I think Dixon was a 4th rounder. But what he's got that the rookies don't is that he actually flashed success in the NFL. Maybe it's cherry picking, but I choose to ignore his first few games back from injury when he was wearing a brace. Just looking at his last 8 games yields some pretty good numbers. Only 240 snaps for 73 carries, but still promising. There were early round RBs like Chris Henry, Brandon Jackson, Trent Richardson that never had a decent 8 game stretch like that. Given the poor success rate of 4th/5th round guys, I'll take the guy who actually looked legit for 8 games over a guy without a single NFL carry.

[Jason3123]

Dixon's hype should be significant higher. The Ravens depth chart is one of the most open, least competitive depth charts in the league. Dixon looked superior to West last year if you watched the games, which I don't blame anyone for not doing. He was also a really good prospect in terms of production and checked all the boxes at the combine. A 32 year old Woodhead coming off a torn ACL and T-West, who is definitely a JAG, should not deter you from investing in Kenneth Dixon. He will be their main guy by the second half of the season.

[pvillebiker]

Dixon's hype should be significant higher. The Ravens depth chart is one of the most open, least competitive depth charts in the league. Dixon looked superior to West last year if you watched the games, which I don't blame anyone for not doing. He was also a really good prospect in terms of production and checked all the boxes at the combine. A 32 year old Woodhead coming off a torn ACL and T-West, who is definitely a JAG, should not deter you from investing in Kenneth Dixon. He will be their main guy by the second half of the season.

And yet the inferior West keeps out hustling and out working mr Dixon. Wonder how long that will (can?) go on. He's been avoiding gravity for going into the 2nd year now. At some point the Ravens have to lose faith in Dixon do they not? Probably not yet, but surely another year like last one wouldn't help Dixon much.

[Jason3123]

Dixon's hype should be significant higher. The Ravens depth chart is one of the most open, least competitive depth charts in the league. Dixon looked superior to West last year if you watched the games, which I don't blame anyone for not doing. He was also a really good prospect in terms of production and checked all the boxes at the combine. A 32 year old Woodhead coming off a torn ACL and T-West, who is definitely a JAG, should not deter you from investing in Kenneth Dixon. He will be their main guy by the second half of the season.

And yet the inferior West keeps out hustling and out working mr Dixon. Wonder how long that will (can?) go on. He's been avoiding gravity for going into the 2nd year now. At some point the Ravens have to lose faith in Dixon do they not? Probably not yet, but surely another year like last one wouldn't help Dixon much.

How does he keep out hustling and out working him? Are you shadowing the two of them? What an absurd statement.

Anywho...back to factual statements. Matthew Berry talked about it on the ESPN pod back at the combine about Harbaugh's love for Kenny Dixon, and Scott Barrett confirmed on twitter that the Ravens already knew about the suspension at this time..so not a big deal.

[maxhyde]

I think I might be more on Concept Coop's side of this.
Dixon is nowhere near a 1st for me but if you want to choose him over the round 4/5 RB's like Joe Williams/Jamaal Williams/Gallman/Mack/McNichols I am OK with that...just don't think it is a slam dunk he is better than any of them or having a bigger role than any going forward either. He should get a good shot to be the guy in BAL but West wasn't horrible last year either and I think Woodhead is going to keep being Woodhead so it isn't like anyone in BAL is heading for bellcow territory imo

If I were solely measuring based on strength of class (flawed I know) but 5th round picks this year I might prefer over 5ths from last year

FWIW, I think Dixon was a 4th rounder. But what he's got that the rookies don't is that he actually flashed success in the NFL. Maybe it's cherry picking, but I choose to ignore his first few games back from injury when he was wearing a brace. Just looking at his last 8 games yields some pretty good numbers. Only 240 snaps for 73 carries, but still promising. There were early round RBs like Chris Henry, Brandon Jackson, Trent Richardson that never had a decent 8 game stretch like that. Given the poor success rate of 4th/5th round guys, I'll take the guy who actually looked legit for 8 games over a guy without a single NFL carry.

Right so the only thing he has is a year in a different league...and a suspension in said league. Not sure you can hold that against prospect this year...it is in the pro column for Dixon already from what I see and know so i won't count it again as a con in the new prospects.
He looked legit 'at times'. He looked very much like a rookie at times too. It wasn't like every carry he was busting things up and ripping big chunks making me rush out and give up 2 1st round picks

[Sterling Archer]

Dixon's hype should be significant higher. The Ravens depth chart is one of the most open, least competitive depth charts in the league. Dixon looked superior to West last year if you watched the games, which I don't blame anyone for not doing. He was also a really good prospect in terms of production and checked all the boxes at the combine. A 32 year old Woodhead coming off a torn ACL and T-West, who is definitely a JAG, should not deter you from investing in Kenneth Dixon. He will be their main guy by the second half of the season.

And yet the inferior West keeps out hustling and out working mr Dixon. Wonder how long that will (can?) go on. He's been avoiding gravity for going into the 2nd year now. At some point the Ravens have to lose faith in Dixon do they not? Probably not yet, but surely another year like last one wouldn't help Dixon much.

Hahaha, wat?

Dixon outsnapped, had more rushing yards (9 fewer carries), and had more targets than West in the last 8 games of the season last year... so wtf are you on about?