Lamar Miller Value

[theone]

I am a big Miller fan but still believe this is a good spot for Foreman. HOU has averaged 493 carries over the last 3 years during the O'Brien regime and with a rookie QB they will continue to run the ball extensively. There is a lot of carries to split among Foreman and Miller. I see this move primarily as a consolidation of the Miller/Blue/Grimes/Hunt work into Miller/Foreman. If Watson is halfway competent, I could see both Miller and Foreman having good years.

[ericanadian]

This is the time of year where the masses like to think that any RB drafted in the first 4 rounds will automatically supplant the veteran in front of them. Foreman may or may not eventually be the lead back in HOU, but I doubt we see anything like that this season unless Miller misses significant time. Miller had 299 touches in 14 games in '16, and he's been a 200-250 touch RB previously in his career. I think the most likely answer here is that HOU wanted a reliable complement back for Miller and someone that they believe they can siphon off an extra 50-100 touches from what Miller received in '16, getting Miller back in that 200-250 touch range. I think that's where Miller is most effective anyways, as a 15 touch per game back as opposed to a 21-23 touch back.

Pretty much all of them are given a shot to take either early down or passing down duties. Look at the last couple years and only five or six guys were not given a legitimate shot at either early downs or passing downs. My guess is that Foreman will have early downs at some point unless Miller has a resurgence a la Murray or Freeman.

2016
Elliott - Immediate starter
Henry - Had an elite back in front of him.
Booker - Overtook Anderson for a time. He just wasn't good enough to hold it.
Dixon - Took over the lead role even with West having a resurgence.
Ervin - Was awful.
Prosise - Passing down back
Drake - Passing down back

2015
Gurley - Immediate Starter
Gordon - Early downs in year one.
Coleman - Freeman was much better than expected in Shanahan offense.
Duke Johnson - Passing down back
Abdullah - Knocked off Bell for early down role in year one.
Yeldon - Lead back
David Johnson - Passing down back in year one.
Davis - bad at football
Allen - Passing down back
Jones - Got a little work on both sides, but took over lead back role in year two.

[BuckeyeNation]

This is the time of year where the masses like to think that any RB drafted in the first 4 rounds will automatically supplant the veteran in front of them. Foreman may or may not eventually be the lead back in HOU, but I doubt we see anything like that this season unless Miller misses significant time. Miller had 299 touches in 14 games in '16, and he's been a 200-250 touch RB previously in his career. I think the most likely answer here is that HOU wanted a reliable complement back for Miller and someone that they believe they can siphon off an extra 50-100 touches from what Miller received in '16, getting Miller back in that 200-250 touch range. I think that's where Miller is most effective anyways, as a 15 touch per game back as opposed to a 21-23 touch back.

Pretty much all of them are given a shot to take either early down or passing down duties. Look at the last couple years and only five or six guys were not given a legitimate shot at either early downs or passing downs. My guess is that Foreman will have early downs at some point unless Miller has a resurgence a la Murray or Freeman.

2016
Elliott - Immediate starter
Henry - Had an elite back in front of him.
Booker - Overtook Anderson for a time. He just wasn't good enough to hold it.
Dixon - Took over the lead role even with West having a resurgence.
Ervin - Was awful.
Prosise - Passing down back
Drake - Passing down back

2015
Gurley - Immediate Starter
Gordon - Early downs in year one.
Coleman - Freeman was much better than expected in Shanahan offense.
Duke Johnson - Passing down back
Abdullah - Knocked off Bell for early down role in year one.
Yeldon - Lead back
David Johnson - Passing down back in year one.
Davis - bad at football
Allen - Passing down back
Jones - Got a little work on both sides, but took over lead back role in year two.

Not sure what this list is supposed to prove. Out of both years it looks like about 5 of the RBs actually took over lead back duties, and that's even including the guys that were obviously drafted to do so such as Zeke/Gurley/Gordon.

I didn't say Foreman wouldn't have a role, quite the contrary as I outlined a legit path to him being used as a rookie. It's a common theme with dynasty owners though, that they expect the rookie RB to come in supplant the starter, and it doesn't usually work that way. The ones that did surely didn't have a quality RB like Miller in front of them. You're pointing to rookies that supplanted guys like Gerhart/a 30yo Joique/and a post Ray Rice hodgepodge that was the Bal backfield.

[ericanadian]

Point is that Foreman isn't taking over the passing down role, which means it's somewhat likely he takes over the early down role. It may be late in the season, but having Miller lose value when you need him most will hurt. If Miller struggles at all, he'll have a short rope. I guess that won't bother you if you're a believer, but I see a guy that struggled with inside runs on a team that brought in a guy that excels at them. Now, Foreman could have a couple ill-timed fumbles and never make it past the CoP role, even if Miller struggles a bit. He could also excel early and leave Miller with only the 3rd down role on a team with a great defense.

[BuckeyeNation]

Point is that Foreman isn't taking over the passing down role, which means it's somewhat likely he takes over the early down role. It may be late in the season, but having Miller lose value when you need him most will hurt. If Miller struggles at all, he'll have a short rope. I guess that won't bother you if you're a believer, but I see a guy that struggled with inside runs on a team that brought in a guy that excels at them. Now, Foreman could have a couple ill-timed fumbles and never make it past the CoP role, even if Miller struggles a bit. He could also excel early and leave Miller with only the 3rd down role on a team with a great defense.

I gotcha. Personally I think Miller remains the lead back, but I also think his workload will get scaled back drastically. That's not necessarily a bad thing to me though, as Miller had better fantasy years with less touches than he had last year when he was on pace for 340 touches. I still think he leads the backfield with 220-240 touches, but I also think that opens the door for Foreman to get 150-170 touches himself if he's up to task with blocking and doesn't fumble. Also FWIW, I own exactly 0 shares of Miller, so I have no vested interest in hoping that he maintains his lead back role.

[ninotoreS]

I'd like to understand if the Texans' rationale for the Foreman pick was more about Miller or Alfred Blue.

More about getting a better backup to Miller. This RB class was pretty overhyped.

Teams generally don't draft expected-to-be long-term backups with a 3rd round pick, especially not at RB (these days). Teams generally only use Day 2 picks on players they hope can be significant contributors.

I know the coachspeak has indicated Foreman isn't a threat to Miller. Smells fishy to me. Actions speak louder than words.

[Goddard]

I don't think Miller loses his job, but I agree with Buckeye that they scale back his touches. However, I don't want to pay RB1 prices for a guy who's only going to touch the ball 15 times per game. I'm a huge fan of Miller's talent and skills, I just don't want him as anything more than my RB2/3.

[thebeast]

I don't own any shares of any of these guys, but my take is that the pick was more about Blue and Miller's injury history. If Watson gives the texans 75% of what Dak gave Dallas then Houston is going to be a legit team. No way you are comfortable having Blue be your lead back if Miller goes down, and you can reduce the risk that Miller goes down by getting a capable back who you can mix in.

[Jason3123]

Foreman will be their starting RB in 2018. Houston can get out of Miller's contract after 2017. Miller is a very average running back and his ability to handle volume has now failed with 2 different teams and been publicly criticized BY BOTH coaching staffs. Also, outside of the 2 Colts games last year, he was really pedestrian. He is a very replaceable running back.

[thebeast]

^ Even if they release Miller at the end of the year it doesn't mean Foreman will be the starter in 2018 as they could draft that guy next year. You would have thought (and many did) McKinnon was the next inline, but it doesn't always work out that way. I wouldn't be placing bets on a 4th round rookie rb to take over as the lead back in 2018 on any team.

[lukkynumber13]

^ Even if they release Miller at the end of the year it doesn't mean Foreman will be the starter in 2018 as they could draft that guy next year. You would have thought (and many did) McKinnon was the next inline, but it doesn't always work out that way. I wouldn't be placing bets on a 4th round rookie rb to take over as the lead back in 2018 on any team.

Not saying your point is invalid, but Foreman was a 3rd rounder.

[Jason3123]

^ Even if they release Miller at the end of the year it doesn't mean Foreman will be the starter in 2018 as they could draft that guy next year. You would have thought (and many did) McKinnon was the next inline, but it doesn't always work out that way. I wouldn't be placing bets on a 4th round rookie rb to take over as the lead back in 2018 on any team.

I'm telling you now...starter by next season. Miller is a very average talent. Foreman won't overtake him right away, but he is 230+ pounds and can handle a heavy workload. Miller cannot.

[nathanq42]

^ Even if they release Miller at the end of the year it doesn't mean Foreman will be the starter in 2018 as they could draft that guy next year. You would have thought (and many did) McKinnon was the next inline, but it doesn't always work out that way. I wouldn't be placing bets on a 4th round rookie rb to take over as the lead back in 2018 on any team.

I'm telling you now...starter by next season. Miller is a very average talent. Foreman won't overtake him right away, but he is 230+ pounds and can handle a heavy workload. Miller cannot.

Fumbles are a death sentence. And foreman has a lot of them

[ninotoreS]

Fumbling is a correctable issue, though.

The trouble with Miller is the perception of his toughness. At Miami, elements of the coaching staff of two different regimes were tepid in their endorsement of him because they believed he just didn't have the necessary physicality to endure the abuse of carrying the ball 20 times in a game. Now in his first season as Houston's feature-back, he struggled with his health all season. Houston rode him like the feature-back they're paying him to be for the first fourth of the year, and that was enough to ding him up for the rest of the season.

In the NFL, if a team loses faith in the starting running-back's ability to weather the abuse, he won't remain the starter for long. I think O'Brien and company are wondering now if Miller can really be their guy. So they drafted Foreman as a plan B they're already half-convinced will be necessary.

But as others have said, Foreman definitely needs to improve his passing-down skills before he can be the guy. I'm not so worried about the fumbling.

[Factory of Sadness]

Miller is a very, very good back. He's quick, slippery and has excellent burst. He also looks to have good vision and instincts. When healthy, I think he's a top tier talent. 'When healthy' is the issue though. He seems to be perpetually nicked up. If Foreman being an improved Blue can help Miller stay fresh, I think it probably benefits him. As posters have said above though, if you're not someone the team believes that they can ride through a year, the danger of them moving on is very real.
With his talent and the expected post-Osweiler bump, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Miller have a great start to the year. The worry is that by week 8 he's touch and go with injury again. If I own Miller I'm definitely taking a look at the possibility of grabbing Foreman as having them both might be a cheapish way to start a high-end RB for 16 games.