Bad Draft for RBs

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DonJulio
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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby DonJulio » Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:34 am

onetwothree wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 6:19 am I think it's just the pendulum swinging in the other direction after so much hype for this class. How many truly great landing spots were there? Most were tied to great QBs but they all had some drawbacks. Colts line isn't great and Gore still there. Packers have Montgomery. Raiders are going Lynch short term. Maybe Eagles?
THIS^

You seem to be overreacting to the draft -- there weren't many ideal situations to begin with. The only "ideal" situation, with room for a solid RB, that didn't draft a RB is Detroit.

Tampa Bay took McNichols late, Green Bay took Jamaal Williams late, Washington took Samaje Perine late, New York Giants took Wayne Gallman late -- all solid sleepers.

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby df_sarc » Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:12 am

Tsunami wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:46 pm Over the long run talent usually rises to the top but the simple fact is that in today's NFL many coaches prefer to use a RBBC. DeMarco Murray is a top RB on one team and barely worth starting on another. Situation might matter more than talent for RB production.
Yeah but talent is a lot easier to forecast into the future than situation.

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby Phaded » Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:43 am

df_sarc wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:12 am
Tsunami wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:46 pm Over the long run talent usually rises to the top but the simple fact is that in today's NFL many coaches prefer to use a RBBC. DeMarco Murray is a top RB on one team and barely worth starting on another. Situation might matter more than talent for RB production.
Yeah but talent is a lot easier to forecast into the future than situation.
Is it really, though?

A lot of these "talented" guys never meet expectations - or they have 1 or 2 good seasons then flop.

Sustained success at RB is difficult to predict - even for the "talented".

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby df_sarc » Sun Apr 30, 2017 11:18 am

Phaded wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:43 am
df_sarc wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:12 am
Tsunami wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:46 pm Over the long run talent usually rises to the top but the simple fact is that in today's NFL many coaches prefer to use a RBBC. DeMarco Murray is a top RB on one team and barely worth starting on another. Situation might matter more than talent for RB production.
Yeah but talent is a lot easier to forecast into the future than situation.
Is it really, though?

A lot of these "talented" guys never meet expectations - or they have 1 or 2 good seasons then flop.

Sustained success at RB is difficult to predict - even for the "talented".
Depends what you mean by 'talent'. Around here everyone says Todd Gurley is talented but his stats say otherwise. If he flops, I'd say that's because he's not very good rather than 'he was really talented but ABC happened'. Deanglo Williams was one player who I thought got screwed long term by situation but there aren't many of them... there must be lots of them but I'm struggling to think of any? some medicore players seem to benefit from situation but how long does that last?
Last edited by df_sarc on Sun Apr 30, 2017 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby stoneghost28 » Sun Apr 30, 2017 11:38 am

jcc6fd wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:48 am So I know we have a lot of mid-draft threads going, but man, how bad has this draft been for both rookie "stud" RBs, existing RBs, and even some of th mid-level day 2 players? In order:

Fournette to JAX:obviously not a Zeke to DAL ideal spot but they've already improved the line. Obviously this crushes Ivory and hurts Yeldon.

McCaffrey to CAR: whole thread for this. I don't think it's too bad and the draft pedigree is awesome, but J-Stew just became a bum.

Cook to MIN: abysmal landing spot. Maybe the worst run blocking O-line and Murray will have a role. This hurts Cook's value and murder's Murray's in one fell swoop.

Mixon to Cin: well we got him in round 2 so he's the 1.01, right? Nope. Almost as bad a landing spot as Cook. Terrible O-line and at least Gio to contend with. He should have early career production but it won't be near what people had hoped.

Kamara to NO: Yuck. Unless Ingram is headed out of town this is terrible. Even without Ingram Kamara has an early career ceiling as a third down back. Not exactly the landing spot you wanted if you had him as your 1.07 or even your 1.10.

Hunt to KC: now this spot is pretty good, but why Hunt!?!? He's basically on par with Ware. People will overdraft him as an inferior talent to a good situation. So Ware does take a hit here but you don't replace it with what we'd assume is RB1 potential.

Foreman to HOU: Argh. I've always been low on Miller and this move confirms he won't get the workload he received last year. Unfortunately a guy with great measurables and sky high potential is still sitting behind an established starter. Looks like you're going to have to wait on him a la Henry.

Conner to PIT: so I know Conner was probably best viewed as a backup RB predraft but now he sits behind one of the most utilized backs in the league. Fortunately injuries and pot make it likely he'll get playing time in some way, and PIT is a great spot. To me the worst part about this is not the landing spot but the player chosen. Why take Conner instead of a Perine? If we were hoping for a DeAngelo handcuff value situations Conner does not inspire me.

So there you have it. You can argue McCaffrey (I'll say he's in a good enough place) but really only Fournette got a "good" landing spot and even that's not really that great. Share if you disagree about any of them and why you might still like a guy more than his spot. I like Foreman despite Miller's presence but it will require patience.

UPDATE FOR DAY 3 BACKS

Perine to WAS: Finally a solid landing spot. My guess is you're going to have to target him in the late first if not mid-first to get him which likely means he'll be overvalued, but at least he should get immediate opportunity as a 2 down lead back which Thompson spelling on 3rd downs.

Fournette: I think the situation is largely very good. He's going to an organization where the head man up top has already run teams featuring Fred Taylor, Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and shown a willingness to build and feature a strong running game, rumors were that Coughlin was dead set on taking the ball away from Bortles and putting it in a smash mouth RB's hands. That's great for Fournette. They also acquired a stop gap LT in, and drafted a real excellent value in falling Cam Robinson to man the RT spot. The OL should be improved on the bookends substantially by those moves. As for Yeldon and Ivory, anyone still holding at this point only has themselves to blame. Yeldon's been awful and somewhat misused for two years, and Ivory was clearly a stop gap fill in due to not wanting to use Ivory in the red zone or short yardage for whatever reason. You should not have been holding Yeldon and Ivory still at this point, unless you were fine w/them being cut and falling into a better situation say in '18 or thereabouts or believe that Fournette's injury issues could persist. Good Situation.

McCaffrey: Mixed bag. I think he'll be used a ton by the Panthers because Cam is an inaccurate QB, but I also believe he now will have to score from outside the 5 yard line going forward. He will not get those "and goal" carries inside the five. Definitely not ideal although the rumors of the Chargers would have provided a much worse situation. Could have been better, could have been worse. Neutral.

Cook: In Dynasty this is adequate at best, but terrible in redraft. The Vikes have a ghastly OL, bad passing game, Lat Murray signed to 3 year deal as well. I can't see how Cook isn't the starter by '18 at the latest, and I think he could win the job w/Murray already in a walking boot after surgery. Bad situation in short term.

Mixon: Excellent landing spot. Bengals have a solid OL (ranked 13th by PFF last year, though they did lose an All Pro Guard in Zeitler to FA), and an above average passing game to prevent Rams like fronts so Mixon will have space to run. Team is very sour on Hill and he's a FA in '18, Gio is hurt and should be out until October if not later, he's signed through '19, but can be cut after the '18 season w/o a major issue, and the contract is team friendly regardless. Excellent landing spot.

Kamara: Neutral: For many it's awful but this is dynasty and the Saints have AP, but only temporarily so. Ingram is on the outs and his last year is voidable, so I suspect he and AP will be gone in '18. My issue with this landing spot is that Brees has to retire at some point and Payton has been rumored to be heading west for a few years. The entire complexion of the team could change by '18, maybe no Brees or Payton, so contrary to most people's dislike, my issue is centered around the unclear future of the team. However it could easily be Kamara's backfield a year from now, so it's not bad, but it's cloudy for sure.

Foreman: Bad: On the surface and justifiably this is just a bad situation. He's landing in a spot where the team spent big money on a FA back a year ago. The draft capital is fairly high and most people recognize that Miller is just not an efficient or productive RB w/o a thousand touches a year, so maybe the team is aware he isn't the answer long term and have brought in Foreman to replace Miller by '19 if he's good enough and to be a share back by '18? Unclear though, and there's no way to shine this landing spot. Bad

Perine: Ideal: He landed on a team that is trying to trade Matt Jones (not takers, even for a 7th) so you know he's gone, and in front of Jones is Rob Kelley, a zeroth percentile athlete and UDFA who the team almost certainly views as an excellent back up and adequate step in starter because of how clean his play is, but still not a difference maker. Meanwhile Chris Thompson and Keith Marshall are there as satellite backs, w/Marshall having the Lightning to Perine's Thunder possibility. Gruden's system has usually utilized a 2 back approach, but it wouldn't be a shock if Perine carried a huge load w/Thompson getting run in the passing game, but Perine not automatically off the field on 3rd down. Ideal spot if he can handle the load and be a difference maker. Excellent.

McNichols: Perfect situation. Great passing game w/a franchise QB in place. Stable Coaching situation. The in house backs have issues with Martin coming off a suspension, and Sims having proven incapable of carrying the load when Martin's been out and he's a FA in '18. Martin signed a huge deal '16, so not sure they can cut him w/o major consequences unless they can use the suspension against him? At minimum it looks like McNichols could get a trial run with Martin suspended, and perhaps be grooms to replace Sims, and if Martin isn't cut, possibly replace him in '18 or '19. Excellent.

M. Mack: Ideal. He lands in a situation where the Colts are ready to move on from Gore by '18 at the latest and possibly earlier. If he can show well, he'll win the starting gig in a fantastic offense by '18 at the latest. Perfect.

K. Hunt: Cloudy. Like the OP, I have a hard time understanding the selection unless the Chiefs really, really, really like Hunt as a full time starter candidate. He does everything Ware does, maybe a lil better, maybe a lil worse, proved this pass year he can catch. Not a fantastic athlete, but damn does he look good on the field, but can he beat out Ware for the full time gig? I don't know. Cloudy.

T. Cohen: Huh?!?! Such a weird selection for a team lacking picks after the trade up for Trubisky. Seemed incredibly wasteful, I suppose they want him to be their satellite and Langford to be a straight backup for Howard? Not close to the best back on the board at this point, and not the best satellite back option either. Solid situation for what he'd be tasked with.

Brian Hill: Horrible. This team already has two legit starters on the roster and they end up stealing Brian Hill, a potential top 100 talent in the draft at slot 156. He's a potential full time starter who flat out won't get to start unless he's cut or trade for YEARS. Worst situation of any of the top 15 RB's drafted.

Joe Williams: Very Good. He lands in a situation where the coach really knows how to use RB's exceptionally well and is part of a heritage that has produced a dozen or more 1000 yard backs with picks selected outside the top 50 of drafts, and often outside the top 100. Williams only major knock is his love for the game. If Hyde gets hurt again, or if Williams is excellent in preseason, you could see this 121st selection become a full time starter by opening day. Very Good.

James Conner: Cloudy. Landed in a situation where there is NO WAY he starts in '17 barring injury. However he also is landing in a spot where rumors have swirled that the Steelers might move on from him unless they can sign him for a reasonable cost considering his suspension risk. Conner showed some passing game chops this past year improving his stock, and could get some run to decide if he's a viable back up or even replacement for Bell. And he is an excellent option for the inevitable playoff game where Bell is out due to injury. Cloudy.

Jamaal Williams/Aaron Jones: Cloudy: For people like me that acquired Ty in the offseason, this pick stings. Do they want him as an an in house challenger to Ty, or as a contender for starter duties with Ty moved to Satellite? Cloudy. The Aaron Jones selection makes it even worse. If Ty owners have enough picks, getting one of these guys, Aaron in my view, makes sense (I like Aaron a lot, lot more). Cloudy

E. Hood: Very good. After a hugely disappointing '16, Hood lands in a perfect situation studying under Lynch and running behind one of the top 3 run blocking units in the NFL. If he's ever going to amount to something, he landed in the perfect spot to find out. Great passing game, great OL, great mentor who runs a similar style to him. He becomes a value pick in round 3 considering the situation. Excellent.

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby dm1129 » Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:29 pm

stoneghost28 wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 11:38 am
Fournette: I think the situation is largely very good. He's going to an organization where the head man up top has already run teams featuring Fred Taylor, Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and shown a willingness to build and feature a strong running game, rumors were that Coughlin was dead set on taking the ball away from Bortles and putting it in a smash mouth RB's hands. That's great for Fournette. They also acquired a stop gap LT in, and drafted a real excellent value in falling Cam Robinson to man the RT spot. The OL should be improved on the bookends substantially by those moves. As for Yeldon and Ivory, anyone still holding at this point only has themselves to blame. Yeldon's been awful and somewhat misused for two years, and Ivory was clearly a stop gap fill in due to not wanting to use Ivory in the red zone or short yardage for whatever reason. You should not have been holding Yeldon and Ivory still at this point, unless you were fine w/them being cut and falling into a better situation say in '18 or thereabouts or believe that Fournette's injury issues could persist. Good Situation.

I don't think many fantasy owners have given enough thought to this fact. Coughlin has a long history and has been very clear in his actions since taking over the Jags of what his vision for this offense is going forward.

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby CK_ » Sun Apr 30, 2017 2:53 pm

Fournette's situation is gold and one of the better places he can go to. They shored up the D and now have a Offense that can be competent even with a somewhat inept Bortles. Eli has never been the greatest QB and look what Coughlin did with him... Bortles is half of what Eli was and seems to be fine with what they want.

THe OLine situation in Cincinnati isn't as good as what has been stated. Them losing Whitworth was a major blow to their OL. They dropped from 4th to 13th and now they should be in the 20th range for this year. Only saving grace is they were willing to spend a 2nd rounder on Mixon saying in a way that he will be their Day 1 Starter. The RB situation in Cincy isn't as good as the majority seem to think. They lost Burkhead in the offseason, Jeremy Hill is all but out, and Gio's recovery is taking longer than expected.

I been pounding pretty hard for Joe Williams, love the situation and he seems to be a steal in the 2nd round of Rookie Drafts.

So many players get overlooked in either NFL and Fantasy because we get close minded with what happened in previous years or got burned by somewhat at a certain pick. You got to be open minded with what happens because the NFL is constantly changing. Stats from one year to the next can be a joke at times. No one wanted anything to do with David Johnson in 2015 Rookie Drafts and OBJ was getting overlooked and pushed down in 2014. Skill doesn't need the perfect home... Gurley also isn't as good as what people make him out to be. Look at what Zac Stacy did in 2013 with the Rams...... where did he go?
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QB: Luck, Mayfield
RB: Elliot, Mixon, Guice, Ekeler
WR: Diggs, C. Davis, Gordon, Lockett, M. Williams, Godwin, John Brown, Tre'Quan Smith
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K: Gostkowski
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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:25 pm

clarion contrarion wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:23 am knew you would be here ? hey how do you like ike ford's situation ?
I'm very surprised he fell to the 7th round. NFL teams must've really panicked on his 40 time. But it just allows me to get him in any league for zero investment.

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby theone » Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:32 pm

This was considered a deep RB class before the draft and I think the landing spots only reinforce that. It will be interesting looking at rookie drafts going forward and the talent/situation debate. With the top talents going to mostly perceived average to below average spots, I have to wonder how far some of the lower tier, but still talented, players landing in perceived good situations will be bumped in drafts.

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby thebeast » Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:45 pm

Coogan Football wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 6:28 am Drafts like this is a perfect time to sit back and remember that most of the time you gotta go with TALENT > SITUATION
Nah, we've been hung up on that too long. WR is talent > situation. RB is situation > talent. Anyone can run behind dallas' line, no one can run behind the rams line.

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby Tsunami » Mon May 01, 2017 9:54 am

Phaded wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:43 am
df_sarc wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:12 am
Tsunami wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:46 pm Over the long run talent usually rises to the top but the simple fact is that in today's NFL many coaches prefer to use a RBBC. DeMarco Murray is a top RB on one team and barely worth starting on another. Situation might matter more than talent for RB production.
Yeah but talent is a lot easier to forecast into the future than situation.
Is it really, though?

A lot of these "talented" guys never meet expectations - or they have 1 or 2 good seasons then flop.

Sustained success at RB is difficult to predict - even for the "talented".
If you're talking about more than 2 or 3 years in the future you're probably right, but it's still a 50/50 shot considering Trent Richardson and Doug Martin and Bishop Sankey and all the other high-profile failures. Zeke could be next for all I know.

But if you're looking for a short-term investment it's pretty easy to find RBs who are likely to go up in value because their good situation leads to decent production. Dixon, Crowell, Ware, Perkins, and Kelley are young and starting. Anytime a player is under 27 and worth more in a redraft than a dynasty league something is fishy; buy them and either sell mid-season for a profit or hope their production gets you through the year.

There is another way, buy RB production based on situation and then dump them. Marshawn Lynch is likely to have a very good year, and is likely to be worth nothing next year, so depending on your league you might be able to get him pretty cheap. How many guys like this add up to the value of one Gurley? If you can get Lynch for a 2nd and you can get Zeke for 1.1 then are you better off with Zeke for 8 years or 8 one-year rentals like Lynch?

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby DLF3000 » Mon May 01, 2017 1:53 pm

thebeast wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:45 pm
Coogan Football wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 6:28 am Drafts like this is a perfect time to sit back and remember that most of the time you gotta go with TALENT > SITUATION
Nah, we've been hung up on that too long. WR is talent > situation. RB is situation > talent. Anyone can run behind dallas' line, no one can run behind the rams line.
Nailed it! :thumbup:
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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby Concept Coop » Mon May 01, 2017 3:12 pm

thebeast wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:45 pm
Coogan Football wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 6:28 am Drafts like this is a perfect time to sit back and remember that most of the time you gotta go with TALENT > SITUATION
Nah, we've been hung up on that too long. WR is talent > situation. RB is situation > talent. Anyone can run behind dallas' line, no one can run behind the rams line.
Who are these situation guys putting up big numbers at RB? And how long do they last before being replaced? Talent wins out.

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby stoneghost28 » Mon May 01, 2017 3:46 pm

CK_ wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 2:53 pm Fournette's situation is gold and one of the better places he can go to. They shored up the D and now have a Offense that can be competent even with a somewhat inept Bortles. Eli has never been the greatest QB and look what Coughlin did with him... Bortles is half of what Eli was and seems to be fine with what they want.

THe OLine situation in Cincinnati isn't as good as what has been stated. Them losing Whitworth was a major blow to their OL. They dropped from 4th to 13th and now they should be in the 20th range for this year. Only saving grace is they were willing to spend a 2nd rounder on Mixon saying in a way that he will be their Day 1 Starter. The RB situation in Cincy isn't as good as the majority seem to think. They lost Burkhead in the offseason, Jeremy Hill is all but out, and Gio's recovery is taking longer than expected.

I been pounding pretty hard for Joe Williams, love the situation and he seems to be a steal in the 2nd round of Rookie Drafts.

So many players get overlooked in either NFL and Fantasy because we get close minded with what happened in previous years or got burned by somewhat at a certain pick. You got to be open minded with what happens because the NFL is constantly changing. Stats from one year to the next can be a joke at times. No one wanted anything to do with David Johnson in 2015 Rookie Drafts and OBJ was getting overlooked and pushed down in 2014. Skill doesn't need the perfect home... Gurley also isn't as good as what people make him out to be. Look at what Zac Stacy did in 2013 with the Rams...... where did he go?

W/regards to Cincy, you're right and I'm wrong, I was so focused on Zeitler, I forgot the other lineman they lost, and I hadn't looked into just how bad Ogbuehi was last year. The OL situation is definitely a problem. I still like Cincy as a situation, not as a top 5-10 landing spot, but as a landing spot that would be somewhere between 12-18, adequate QB play, quality WR's to keep loaded fronts as a non-starter, but the OL issue makes it concerning, as does Marvin Lewis's job stability, and Gio. I don't view Hill as an issue, they are kicking him to the curb after the season, heck maybe even before the year starts. Gio's contract is easy to dump as well, especially after '18. So Mixon's situation is fine to me, not quite as good as I argued, but still fine. The ugly situation is still, for me, Cook in Minny and to a degree, McCaffrey in Carolina (due to the lack of creativity and QB TD vulturing), and the day 2 and day 3 landing spots are better but still some are great, some are unfortunate (Aaron Jones, Brian Hill, and Foreman's spot's all hurt me a lot-i liked all 3, and now I don't even know when/if to draft them).

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Re: Bad Draft for RBs

Postby stoneghost28 » Mon May 01, 2017 3:49 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:25 pm
clarion contrarion wrote: Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:23 am knew you would be here ? hey how do you like ike ford's situation ?
I'm very surprised he fell to the 7th round. NFL teams must've really panicked on his 40 time. But it just allows me to get him in any league for zero investment.
Had a horrible combine in general: 22nd percentile speed score, 40th percentile agility score, 44th percentile catch radius, 25th percentile in SPARQ-x. His breakout age, and market share numbers and burst score are the selling points, as is the film, but the rest of the #'s are scary along with the slight frame.


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