jcc6fd wrote: ↑Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:48 am
So I know we have a lot of mid-draft threads going, but man, how bad has this draft been for both rookie "stud" RBs, existing RBs, and even some of th mid-level day 2 players? In order:
Fournette to JAX:obviously not a Zeke to DAL ideal spot but they've already improved the line. Obviously this crushes Ivory and hurts Yeldon.
McCaffrey to CAR: whole thread for this. I don't think it's too bad and the draft pedigree is awesome, but J-Stew just became a bum.
Cook to MIN: abysmal landing spot. Maybe the worst run blocking O-line and Murray will have a role. This hurts Cook's value and murder's Murray's in one fell swoop.
Mixon to Cin: well we got him in round 2 so he's the 1.01, right? Nope. Almost as bad a landing spot as Cook. Terrible O-line and at least Gio to contend with. He should have early career production but it won't be near what people had hoped.
Kamara to NO: Yuck. Unless Ingram is headed out of town this is terrible. Even without Ingram Kamara has an early career ceiling as a third down back. Not exactly the landing spot you wanted if you had him as your 1.07 or even your 1.10.
Hunt to KC: now this spot is pretty good, but why Hunt!?!? He's basically on par with Ware. People will overdraft him as an inferior talent to a good situation. So Ware does take a hit here but you don't replace it with what we'd assume is RB1 potential.
Foreman to HOU: Argh. I've always been low on Miller and this move confirms he won't get the workload he received last year. Unfortunately a guy with great measurables and sky high potential is still sitting behind an established starter. Looks like you're going to have to wait on him a la Henry.
Conner to PIT: so I know Conner was probably best viewed as a backup RB predraft but now he sits behind one of the most utilized backs in the league. Fortunately injuries and pot make it likely he'll get playing time in some way, and PIT is a great spot. To me the worst part about this is not the landing spot but the player chosen. Why take Conner instead of a Perine? If we were hoping for a DeAngelo handcuff value situations Conner does not inspire me.
So there you have it. You can argue McCaffrey (I'll say he's in a good enough place) but really only Fournette got a "good" landing spot and even that's not really that great. Share if you disagree about any of them and why you might still like a guy more than his spot. I like Foreman despite Miller's presence but it will require patience.
UPDATE FOR DAY 3 BACKS
Perine to WAS: Finally a solid landing spot. My guess is you're going to have to target him in the late first if not mid-first to get him which likely means he'll be overvalued, but at least he should get immediate opportunity as a 2 down lead back which Thompson spelling on 3rd downs.
Fournette: I think the situation is largely very good. He's going to an organization where the head man up top has already run teams featuring Fred Taylor, Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and shown a willingness to build and feature a strong running game, rumors were that Coughlin was dead set on taking the ball away from Bortles and putting it in a smash mouth RB's hands. That's great for Fournette. They also acquired a stop gap LT in, and drafted a real excellent value in falling Cam Robinson to man the RT spot. The OL should be improved on the bookends substantially by those moves. As for Yeldon and Ivory, anyone still holding at this point only has themselves to blame. Yeldon's been awful and somewhat misused for two years, and Ivory was clearly a stop gap fill in due to not wanting to use Ivory in the red zone or short yardage for whatever reason. You should not have been holding Yeldon and Ivory still at this point, unless you were fine w/them being cut and falling into a better situation say in '18 or thereabouts or believe that Fournette's injury issues could persist. Good Situation.
McCaffrey: Mixed bag. I think he'll be used a ton by the Panthers because Cam is an inaccurate QB, but I also believe he now will have to score from outside the 5 yard line going forward. He will not get those "and goal" carries inside the five. Definitely not ideal although the rumors of the Chargers would have provided a much worse situation. Could have been better, could have been worse. Neutral.
Cook: In Dynasty this is adequate at best, but terrible in redraft. The Vikes have a ghastly OL, bad passing game, Lat Murray signed to 3 year deal as well. I can't see how Cook isn't the starter by '18 at the latest, and I think he could win the job w/Murray already in a walking boot after surgery. Bad situation in short term.
Mixon: Excellent landing spot. Bengals have a solid OL (ranked 13th by PFF last year, though they did lose an All Pro Guard in Zeitler to FA), and an above average passing game to prevent Rams like fronts so Mixon will have space to run. Team is very sour on Hill and he's a FA in '18, Gio is hurt and should be out until October if not later, he's signed through '19, but can be cut after the '18 season w/o a major issue, and the contract is team friendly regardless. Excellent landing spot.
Kamara: Neutral: For many it's awful but this is dynasty and the Saints have AP, but only temporarily so. Ingram is on the outs and his last year is voidable, so I suspect he and AP will be gone in '18. My issue with this landing spot is that Brees has to retire at some point and Payton has been rumored to be heading west for a few years. The entire complexion of the team could change by '18, maybe no Brees or Payton, so contrary to most people's dislike, my issue is centered around the unclear future of the team. However it could easily be Kamara's backfield a year from now, so it's not bad, but it's cloudy for sure.
Foreman: Bad: On the surface and justifiably this is just a bad situation. He's landing in a spot where the team spent big money on a FA back a year ago. The draft capital is fairly high and most people recognize that Miller is just not an efficient or productive RB w/o a thousand touches a year, so maybe the team is aware he isn't the answer long term and have brought in Foreman to replace Miller by '19 if he's good enough and to be a share back by '18? Unclear though, and there's no way to shine this landing spot. Bad
Perine: Ideal: He landed on a team that is trying to trade Matt Jones (not takers, even for a 7th) so you know he's gone, and in front of Jones is Rob Kelley, a zeroth percentile athlete and UDFA who the team almost certainly views as an excellent back up and adequate step in starter because of how clean his play is, but still not a difference maker. Meanwhile Chris Thompson and Keith Marshall are there as satellite backs, w/Marshall having the Lightning to Perine's Thunder possibility. Gruden's system has usually utilized a 2 back approach, but it wouldn't be a shock if Perine carried a huge load w/Thompson getting run in the passing game, but Perine not automatically off the field on 3rd down. Ideal spot if he can handle the load and be a difference maker. Excellent.
McNichols: Perfect situation. Great passing game w/a franchise QB in place. Stable Coaching situation. The in house backs have issues with Martin coming off a suspension, and Sims having proven incapable of carrying the load when Martin's been out and he's a FA in '18. Martin signed a huge deal '16, so not sure they can cut him w/o major consequences unless they can use the suspension against him? At minimum it looks like McNichols could get a trial run with Martin suspended, and perhaps be grooms to replace Sims, and if Martin isn't cut, possibly replace him in '18 or '19. Excellent.
M. Mack: Ideal. He lands in a situation where the Colts are ready to move on from Gore by '18 at the latest and possibly earlier. If he can show well, he'll win the starting gig in a fantastic offense by '18 at the latest. Perfect.
K. Hunt: Cloudy. Like the OP, I have a hard time understanding the selection unless the Chiefs really, really, really like Hunt as a full time starter candidate. He does everything Ware does, maybe a lil better, maybe a lil worse, proved this pass year he can catch. Not a fantastic athlete, but damn does he look good on the field, but can he beat out Ware for the full time gig? I don't know. Cloudy.
T. Cohen: Huh?!?! Such a weird selection for a team lacking picks after the trade up for Trubisky. Seemed incredibly wasteful, I suppose they want him to be their satellite and Langford to be a straight backup for Howard? Not close to the best back on the board at this point, and not the best satellite back option either. Solid situation for what he'd be tasked with.
Brian Hill: Horrible. This team already has two legit starters on the roster and they end up stealing Brian Hill, a potential top 100 talent in the draft at slot 156. He's a potential full time starter who flat out won't get to start unless he's cut or trade for YEARS. Worst situation of any of the top 15 RB's drafted.
Joe Williams: Very Good. He lands in a situation where the coach really knows how to use RB's exceptionally well and is part of a heritage that has produced a dozen or more 1000 yard backs with picks selected outside the top 50 of drafts, and often outside the top 100. Williams only major knock is his love for the game. If Hyde gets hurt again, or if Williams is excellent in preseason, you could see this 121st selection become a full time starter by opening day. Very Good.
James Conner: Cloudy. Landed in a situation where there is NO WAY he starts in '17 barring injury. However he also is landing in a spot where rumors have swirled that the Steelers might move on from him unless they can sign him for a reasonable cost considering his suspension risk. Conner showed some passing game chops this past year improving his stock, and could get some run to decide if he's a viable back up or even replacement for Bell. And he is an excellent option for the inevitable playoff game where Bell is out due to injury. Cloudy.
Jamaal Williams/Aaron Jones: Cloudy: For people like me that acquired Ty in the offseason, this pick stings. Do they want him as an an in house challenger to Ty, or as a contender for starter duties with Ty moved to Satellite? Cloudy. The Aaron Jones selection makes it even worse. If Ty owners have enough picks, getting one of these guys, Aaron in my view, makes sense (I like Aaron a lot, lot more). Cloudy
E. Hood: Very good. After a hugely disappointing '16, Hood lands in a perfect situation studying under Lynch and running behind one of the top 3 run blocking units in the NFL. If he's ever going to amount to something, he landed in the perfect spot to find out. Great passing game, great OL, great mentor who runs a similar style to him. He becomes a value pick in round 3 considering the situation. Excellent.