Draft winners and losers

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Obviously, there is still a lot of draft left to go, but I wanted to kick off a discussion of draft winners and losers considering dynasty value.

Winners (after 1st round):
Corey Davis - The favorite for 1.01 right now. The Titans used premium draft capital on him and he is tied to an ascending QB with not much in his way for the top WR spot. I can see this guy being considered a dynasty WR1 by the end of his rookie year.
OJ Howard - Best landing spot for him, IMO. Good QBs go a long way to helping TEs, and he has blocking skills to get on the field right away. He is going to be what we wanted ASJ to be.
DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller - Watson is probably the QB most ready to play now, and he is gonna find throwing it up to Hopkins not that different from throwing it up to MW. Fuller gets less of an upgrade, but I think he will also benefit.
Doug Martin and Isaiah Crowell - still 2 days to go, but I think these guys dodged some serious bullets so far, and their teams are not in position to add a Cook or Mixon early on day 2 with their current picks.
Philip Rivers and Jameis Winston - These guys have some serious weapons at their disposal now. Dalton and Mariota should also be mentioned as they also got upgrades, But Rivers is adding Allen and MW from last year, and Winston gets DJax and now Howard.

Losers:
Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen- This one bummed me out. I thought Tyrell showed a ton of growth in year 2 considering his background and thought he had a chance to explode in year 3 with similar growth. Williams addition is going to mean less targets for Tyrell and Keenan, but I think Tyrell suffers more as he turns into more of an early career Malcolm Floyd type deep threat once MW is fully integrated. Henry loses his monopoly on RZ targets going forward, IMO. MW value is unchanged after this pick IMO. He is not in a great spot for consistent early production, but a high pick to a good QB and offense cancels that out.
Sterling Shephard - A TE who is strictly a receiving specialist is bad news for a WR who's only role was going to be working from the slot in 3 WR sets.
Cameron Brate- for obvious reasons.
Jay Ajayi - Love Ajayi for my Dolphins and still think he is a top RB in the league, but as a Dolphins fan I am getting disheartened at how they keep ignoring the interior line this offseason. They are a Mike Pouncey injury from the entire middle of the line being weak. A Forest Lamp selection would have been huge for Ajayi.

Feel free to add winners/losers as the picks roll in, or let me know where you think I am wrong

[Cowboysfan33]

Winners (after 1st round):

McCaffrey: I think he's going to be great in PPR leagues which is what most play in anyway. Going to a read option offense and supposedly the Panthers are going to use him some in the slot too, I think his stock went up after going to the Panthers.
Howard: The Bucs are building a very good offense and many scouts thought that he was the best overall prospect. He should be able to wrestle the job away from Brate fairly easy.
Mike Williams: The Chargers have one of the better QBs in the league, plenty of other weapons to take the pressure off of him and at least he didn't get drafted by Buffalo.
Eli- Another weapon at his disposal.

Losers:

Keenan Allen: I really think that the Williams pick is more about Allens injury history than anything. I think the Chargers are making sure they have another potential stud WR in case Allen has another injury or doesn't make it back from the knee injury.
Njoku- I love what the Browns did in the first round but it's going to take a couple more seasons for their offense to be very good, imo.
Luck- I thought the Colts should've went o-line, I know they needed defense but you have to keep Luck healthy.

[Kramer]

Good list. Here are some additions. I think for losers you can add Corey Coleman and Njoku. They're going to have Kessler or Osweiler throwing to them for this season instead of a Trubisky. I'd also add Mike Glennon and Tom Savage to the losers list. I think Bortles is a loser as well. Fournette will turn that team into a ground and pound type of team. Bortles won't get as many chances to keep on Bortling around. Eli Manning gets a slight bump with another weapon on offense.

[Runfar]

Obviously, there is still a lot of draft left to go, but I wanted to kick off a discussion of draft winners and losers considering dynasty value.

Winners (after 1st round):
Corey Davis - The favorite for 1.01 right now. The Titans used premium draft capital on him and he is tied to an ascending QB with not much in his way for the top WR spot. I can see this guy being considered a dynasty WR1 by the end of his rookie year.
OJ Howard - Best landing spot for him, IMO. Good QBs go a long way to helping TEs, and he has blocking skills to get on the field right away. He is going to be what we wanted ASJ to be.
DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller - Watson is probably the QB most ready to play now, and he is gonna find throwing it up to Hopkins not that different from throwing it up to MW. Fuller gets less of an upgrade, but I think he will also benefit.
Doug Martin and Isaiah Crowell - still 2 days to go, but I think these guys dodged some serious bullets so far, and their teams are not in position to add a Cook or Mixon early on day 2 with their current picks.
Philip Rivers and Jameis Winston - These guys have some serious weapons at their disposal now. Dalton and Mariota should also be mentioned as they also got upgrades, But Rivers is adding Allen and MW from last year, and Winston gets DJax and now Howard.

Losers:
Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen- This one bummed me out. I thought Tyrell showed a ton of growth in year 2 considering his background and thought he had a chance to explode in year 3 with similar growth. Williams addition is going to mean less targets for Tyrell and Keenan, but I think Tyrell suffers more as he turns into more of an early career Malcolm Floyd type deep threat once MW is fully integrated. Henry loses his monopoly on RZ targets going forward, IMO. MW value is unchanged after this pick IMO. He is not in a great spot for consistent early production, but a high pick to a good QB and offense cancels that out.
Sterling Shephard - A TE who is strictly a receiving specialist is bad news for a WR who's only role was going to be working from the slot in 3 WR sets.
Cameron Brate- for obvious reasons.
Jay Ajayi - Love Ajayi for my Dolphins and still think he is a top RB in the league, but as a Dolphins fan I am getting disheartened at how they keep ignoring the interior line this offseason. They are a Mike Pouncey injury from the entire middle of the line being weak. A Forest Lamp selection would have been huge for Ajayi.

Feel free to add winners/losers as the picks roll in, or let me know where you think I am wrong

-I'm not sure CDavis is #1.01. I'd lean to Fournette but Davis didn't hurt himself like MWilliams did. Tenn is a run first offense. This also didn't hurt RMatthews and so far Tenn hasn't drafted a TE to hurt DWalker value. Tenn as a team is looking up.
-I'm not a fan of Winston but its good for him that they added OJHoward especially with all the coverage MEvans gets. Winston has no excuses tho to not do good. They have plenty of talent around him.
-I'm not so sure Watson is as ready as you think he is. The offense that Bill O’Brien’s runs is nothing like Clemson played much more difficult to do. Watson was in shotgun the whole time. But you can't argue what he did in college. I'm just not sure he will translate as smoothly as you think. He does have talent around him tho.
-Ugrade yes for PRivers and Eli. Lots of mouth to feed in both those offenses now tho.
-JRoss Hopefully they will use him for some gadget plays, Bubble screens etc and just not running deep passes.
-CMcCaffery Not a bad spot if they use him but they better since they drafted him so high. Cam has never used the RB much. He not much of a dink and dunker. Surely they will change up offense some to take advantage of CMcCaffery talents.
-Njoku not a bad spot but they don't have a QB.
-Poor Glennon he thought he was going to get a chance to be a starter for more then this yr. I think its a good landing spot for MTrubisky. He has some talented WRs if White can stay healthy and a good running game with JHoward.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Winners (after 1st round):

McCaffrey: I think he's going to be great in PPR leagues which is what most play in anyway. Going to a read option offense and supposedly the Panthers are going to use him some in the slot too, I think his stock went up after going to the Panthers.
Howard: The Bucs are building a very good offense and many scouts thought that he was the best overall prospect. He should be able to wrestle the job away from Brate fairly easy.
Mike Williams: The Chargers have one of the better QBs in the league, plenty of other weapons to take the pressure off of him and at least he didn't get drafted by Buffalo.
Eli- Another weapon at his disposal.

Losers:

Keenan Allen: I really think that the Williams pick is more about Allens injury history than anything. I think the Chargers are making sure they have another potential stud WR in case Allen has another injury or doesn't make it back from the knee injury.
Njoku- I love what the Browns did in the first round but it's going to take a couple more seasons for their offense to be very good, imo.
Luck- I thought the Colts should've went o-line, I know they needed defense but you have to keep Luck healthy.

Good additions. I can definitely see the positives with McCaffrey. I considered putting him in my "winners" section, but I am a bit leary of how CAR has used RBs. That said, I don't imagine they spent pick 8 on him to use him like 29-year-old Stewart.
Good call on Eli, forgot about them adding Engram and Marshall. I also like the spot for Engram.
I did not hate the spot for Njoku, but it definitely doesn't bump him up. As raw as he is reported to be, it is probably just as well that his developing years line up with the Browns positioning themselves for Darnold.

[Goddard]

Alex Smith is a loser. He's probably having flashbacks of when he lost his starting job to Kaep.

Eli Manning has to be one of the biggest winners of the off-season so far.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

-I'm not so sure Watson is as ready as you think he is. The offense that Bill O’Brien’s runs is nothing like Clemson played much more difficult to do. Watson was in shotgun the whole time. But you can't argue what he did in college. I'm just not sure he will translate as smoothly as you think. He does have talent around him tho.

I know there were a lot of concerns about Watson's mechanics and how his offense would translate. My basis for liking him the best year 1 is that he stepped into a major college program at 18 didn't look lost at all, and he played against tip-top competition throughout college and thrived. Most QBs look terrified in early NFL games. I don't think the NFL game is going to be overwhelming for Watson early since the NCAA was not too big for him at 18, and he has been playing against (and beating) future NFLers for years now. Couple that with him going to a complete team, and I think it will be a fairly smooth transition.
Dak was a really similar situation last year. He played well in the SEC as a RFr, and despite switching from a spread offense, he had a lot of success going to a complete team last year, partly because playing early was not too big for him. I am not saying Watson is going to work out like that, but I think it won't take long for him to be an improvement over Ossweiler or Savage in that setting.

Granted, I watch a lot of college football, and sometimes like the guys that do well in college more than I should, but I do get some right occasionally

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Good list. Here are some additions. I think for losers you can add Corey Coleman and Njoku. They're going to have Kessler or Osweiler throwing to them for this season instead of a Trubisky. I'd also add Mike Glennon and Tom Savage to the losers list. I think Bortles is a loser as well. Fournette will turn that team into a ground and pound type of team. Bortles won't get as many chances to keep on Bortling around. Eli Manning gets a slight bump with another weapon on offense.

Yeah Coleman is a good call based on another missed opportunity to add a QB.

Alex Smith is a loser. He's probably having flashbacks of when he lost his starting job to Kaep.

Good call on the incumbent QBs. I didn't think of them because I was mainly focused on dynasty value, and I didn't really think these guys have much of that to lose. Even in the SF league I am in, I have Alex Smith and he is sooooo boooooring. Today efinitely sucked for guys like Smith and Glennon in real life.

[ChuckCecil26]

Obviously, there is still a lot of draft left to go, but I wanted to kick off a discussion of draft winners and losers considering dynasty value.

Winners (after 1st round):
Corey Davis - The favorite for 1.01 right now. The Titans used premium draft capital on him and he is tied to an ascending QB with not much in his way for the top WR spot. I can see this guy being considered a dynasty WR1 by the end of his rookie year.
OJ Howard - Best landing spot for him, IMO. Good QBs go a long way to helping TEs, and he has blocking skills to get on the field right away. He is going to be what we wanted ASJ to be.
DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller - Watson is probably the QB most ready to play now, and he is gonna find throwing it up to Hopkins not that different from throwing it up to MW. Fuller gets less of an upgrade, but I think he will also benefit.
Doug Martin and Isaiah Crowell - still 2 days to go, but I think these guys dodged some serious bullets so far, and their teams are not in position to add a Cook or Mixon early on day 2 with their current picks.
Philip Rivers and Jameis Winston - These guys have some serious weapons at their disposal now. Dalton and Mariota should also be mentioned as they also got upgrades, But Rivers is adding Allen and MW from last year, and Winston gets DJax and now Howard.

Losers:
Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen- This one bummed me out. I thought Tyrell showed a ton of growth in year 2 considering his background and thought he had a chance to explode in year 3 with similar growth. Williams addition is going to mean less targets for Tyrell and Keenan, but I think Tyrell suffers more as he turns into more of an early career Malcolm Floyd type deep threat once MW is fully integrated. Henry loses his monopoly on RZ targets going forward, IMO. MW value is unchanged after this pick IMO. He is not in a great spot for consistent early production, but a high pick to a good QB and offense cancels that out.
Sterling Shephard - A TE who is strictly a receiving specialist is bad news for a WR who's only role was going to be working from the slot in 3 WR sets.
Cameron Brate- for obvious reasons.
Jay Ajayi - Love Ajayi for my Dolphins and still think he is a top RB in the league, but as a Dolphins fan I am getting disheartened at how they keep ignoring the interior line this offseason. They are a Mike Pouncey injury from the entire middle of the line being weak. A Forest Lamp selection would have been huge for Ajayi.

Feel free to add winners/losers as the picks roll in, or let me know where you think I am wrong

Great list. Good points about Martin and Crowell.

I wanted to add Spencer Ware to that RB list after the Chiefs traded up and took Mahomes but they still have --

2nd round: No. 59
3rd round: No. 104
4th round: No. 132
5th round: No. 170 & 180
6th round: No. 216 & 218
7th round: No. 245

-- but if he somehow survives tomorrow his job security will look pretty sunny.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Great list. Good points about Martin and Crowell.

I wanted to add Spencer Ware to that RB list after the Chiefs traded up and took Mahomes but they still have --

2nd round: No. 59
3rd round: No. 104
4th round: No. 132
5th round: No. 170 & 180
6th round: No. 216 & 218
7th round: No. 245

-- but if he somehow survives tomorrow his job security will look pretty sunny.

Thanks! Ware is another good one. Thankfully for owners, worst case is probably him vs. Kamara/Foreman and not Cook/Mixon.

If I am a Montgomery owner, I am turning blue holding my breath until tomorrow's first pick.

[Runfar]

Great list. Good points about Martin and Crowell.

I wanted to add Spencer Ware to that RB list after the Chiefs traded up and took Mahomes but they still have --

2nd round: No. 59
3rd round: No. 104
4th round: No. 132
5th round: No. 170 & 180
6th round: No. 216 & 218
7th round: No. 245

-- but if he somehow survives tomorrow his job security will look pretty sunny.

Thanks! Ware is another good one. Thankfully for owners, worst case is probably him vs. Kamara/Foreman and not Cook/Mixon.

If I am a Montgomery owner, I am turning blue holding my breath until tomorrow's first pick.

Yes, the next few days will be fun to watch.

[clarion contrarion]

john lynch is the biggest winner after he roofied the bears bumbling drunken brass seabass style , still got his guy at 3 and then added rube foster at 31 so much those blabbering jealously about him being over matched.
maccaffery is a loser in the panthers flintstone era offense hard to say the fournette isn't a loser heading Jacksondismal but the other jags backs are now end of the bench types.
davis and williams are winners howard is a huge winner as is engram probably bortles survived for the moment and arob should get less attention with teams stuffing the box for lenny.

[tstafford]

john lynch is the biggest winner after he roofied the bears bumbling drunken brass seabass style ,

For sure. Ridiculous trade.

[MEuRaH]

I don't think you can call Martin, Ware, & Crowell "winners" simply because their teams didn't draft a RB in the 1st round. What about round 2? 3? 4? They aren't winners, they just "haven't lost yet". That's a whole different category.

[cp3]

We don't talk about them much, but I liked all 3 landing spots for the QBs from a 2qb/Superflex perspective. Should all have fairly quick opportunity and went to fairly stable franchises.