Are we nervous about Keenan?

[Phaded]

There was plenty of reason to be nervous about Keenan prior to the Draft, drafting Mike Williams simply made it more obvious to those who did not see it before.

[Weeman]

Keenen could move into slot. Especially since he & Rivers are all about timing routes.now you Put Tyrell & MW on the outside. Rivers needed weapons if Keenen can't stay healthy. They have solid backups in Inman & Benjamin.

From dynasty perspective I see why ppl would sour on Keenen. But this offense is going to generate over 4k in the air. A WR2 season can still win you leagues. Keenen will be a nice buylow this offseason for the owners that panic.

[flyersfan1981]

I know there are plenty of people on this board with massive mancrushes on Keenan, but realistically I don't see how anyone can just continue to abandon logic in his defense. We can argue all day here over the rationale behind the selection of Mike Williams by the Chargers.

Let's assume for a moment that Keenan was the best WR on his team. Let's also assume that he stays completely healthy in 2017. The addition of Mike Williams is not a good thing for him...nor for any receiver in that offense (including Mike Williams*). There is little doubt that the Chargers are a pass first team, but when it comes to Rivers he likes to spread the ball around. This has always been the case.

There are plenty of people on here who are liking to trash on Tyrell Williams because he only produced because of injuries to other weapons (along with the UDFA argument). News flash! Keenan only produced in 2015 because of injuries to other weapons. Unless injuries strike the team again, Keenan's targets are guaranteed to drop which is a huge problem for his production because his primary asset is efficiency on high volume.

Keenan only needs 125 targets to get 85 catches...if he gets 85 catches he will finish as a low WR1/high WR2...which is fine for me.

Skip...you just keep stating obvious things about Keenan though. Is it his fault he got a lot of volume? I mean if he was their only option, shouldn't defensive coordinators know that and maybe double team him and shut down the entire passing game? Even as the only option he was still catching over 70% of his targets.

[Cowboysfan33]

Keenan owner here, and a little salty this morning, as I was hoping Williams would land anywhere besides LA. Question for other Keenan owners...

Would you draft Williams and potentially double dip with him and Keenan? I've got 1.5 so there is a chance that he may be there.

I actually think that's a pretty good idea unless something crazy happens and another player like Davis falls to you, then I wouldn't.

[skip]

Skip...you just keep stating obvious things about Keenan though. Is it his fault he got a lot of volume? I mean if he was their only option, shouldn't defensive coordinators know that and maybe double team him and shut down the entire passing game? Even as the only option he was still catching over 70% of his targets.

No, not his fault, but I think you missed the point. Look at all the criticism re: Tyrell Williams and it boils down to 2 things: targets due to injuries to other players and that he's a UDFA. Not one single "anti" Tyrell argument has ever centered around his skill set. Reason being is there is no viable argument against him in this capacity. But those making this argument conveniently ignore that Keenan benefited in the exact same way.

Assuming your numbers are right - 125 targets - and he catches 85 of them - why not use 2014 as his baseline since he had 122 targets that season? The counter argument being - why not use 2013? The problem I have is that we really don't know which of those Keenan's we are going to get. Keenan is going to continue to do what he's done the last 3 years and run the shorter routes and be efficient in doing so. Your 85 receptions might get him 1,000 yards, but I wouldn't count on it. His recent trend is to average under 11 yards per catch but he would need to average close to 12 (11.76). He already wasn't a red zone target and the addition of Williams and emergence of Henry is going to impact that aspect of his game even more.

For argument's sake, I'll use these numbers: 85-1,000-6. I see this as his ceiling but he has a relatively "safe" floor. I wager you think he'll have more yards and TDs. This puts him in Jordan Matthews territory. That's low end WR2 and far outside of his ADP (2nd round). I think people have misunderstood my position on Keenan for quite some time. I've never said he was a bad WR. I've never even called him a JAG. What I've insisted on and will continue to do so is that he is no where near the elite WR that some make him out to be.

[onetwothree]

Keenan owner here, and a little salty this morning, as I was hoping Williams would land anywhere besides LA. Question for other Keenan owners...

Would you draft Williams and potentially double dip with him and Keenan? I've got 1.5 so there is a chance that he may be there.

I wouldn't intentionally double dip as it can cap your potential production but if he's BPA then you do it and figure it out later.

I have Keenan and 1.06. I hope I don't have to make that decision.

[skip]

And I even promised myself to try to avoid more threads on Keenan...grrr.

[Jason3123]

Keenan has always been propped up by volume but as someone mentioned earlier he only needs 120-130 targets to be a top 15ish WR in PPR. He will certainly not have the insane 200 target pace he kept previously but that pace would've made him a top 5-6 WR. He isn't that kind of talent, so if anything this will just drop him down to a more realistic ceiling. Injuries unfortunately derailed Allen's career from his top fantasy seasons, but that doesn't mean he won't post multiple successful seasons.

If you're a Tyrell Williams fan...sorry..shouldn't be surprised though. Undrafted WR tied to opportunity. Opportunity now gone.

[CharlieKelly]

No, not his fault, but I think you missed the point. Look at all the criticism re: Tyrell Williams and it boils down to 2 things: targets due to injuries to other players and that he's a UDFA. Not one single "anti" Tyrell argument has ever centered around his skill set. Reason being is there is no viable argument against him in this capacity. But those making this argument conveniently ignore that Keenan benefited in the exact same way.

Assuming your numbers are right - 125 targets - and he catches 85 of them - why not use 2014 as his baseline since he had 122 targets that season? The counter argument being - why not use 2013? The problem I have is that we really don't know which of those Keenan's we are going to get. Keenan is going to continue to do what he's done the last 3 years and run the shorter routes and be efficient in doing so. Your 85 receptions might get him 1,000 yards, but I wouldn't count on it. His recent trend is to average under 11 yards per catch but he would need to average close to 12 (11.76). He already wasn't a red zone target and the addition of Williams and emergence of Henry is going to impact that aspect of his game even more.

For argument's sake, I'll use these numbers: 85-1,000-6. I see this as his ceiling but he has a relatively "safe" floor. I wager you think he'll have more yards and TDs. This puts him in Jordan Matthews territory. That's low end WR2 and far outside of his ADP (2nd round). I think people have misunderstood my position on Keenan for quite some time. I've never said he was a bad WR. I've never even called him a JAG. What I've insisted on and will continue to do so is that he is no where near the elite WR that some make him out to be.

This is a great breakdown. After all of these injuries, the new additions of Hunter and Williams, and the emergence of Tyrell, we really have no idea which Keenan we are going to get now.

He's currently still being drafted as a borderline WR1, but it seems like he would realistically need around 150+ targets to live up to his draft stock. It's hard to imagine KA getting ~10 looks per game in this offense now, and even if he does, we have no idea if he's healthy enough to do what he did with those targets 2-3 years ago.

[Cowboysfan33]

First off, I have Ty Williams in 3 leagues "but" picked him up off the waiver wire in two of those leagues and drafted him fairly late in a startup this offseason, so I don't have alot invested. That said, do people really believe that the Chargers look at him and say "he's an undrafted WR for a reason,we must find an upgrade", that could be the case, but that doesn't make sense to me. What does make sense is, maybe hedging their bets because their #1 WR in Allen, can't stay healthy. I'm not expecting Allen to go away, nothing crazy like that and like someone else said, if he's your #3 or #4, that will be fine, but his targets are going to go way down, imo. I would think, if anything, the Chargers would have to be pumped that their undrafted WR, that they unearthed from Western Oregon had such a productive sophomore season.

[Grizzly]

I know there are plenty of people on this board with massive mancrushes on Keenan, but realistically I don't see how anyone can just continue to abandon logic in his defense. We can argue all day here over the rationale behind the selection of Mike Williams by the Chargers.

Let's assume for a moment that Keenan was the best WR on his team. Let's also assume that he stays completely healthy in 2017. The addition of Mike Williams is not a good thing for him...nor for any receiver in that offense (including Mike Williams*). There is little doubt that the Chargers are a pass first team, but when it comes to Rivers he likes to spread the ball around. This has always been the case.

There are plenty of people on here who are liking to trash on Tyrell Williams because he only produced because of injuries to other weapons (along with the UDFA argument). News flash! Keenan only produced in 2015 because of injuries to other weapons. Unless injuries strike the team again, Keenan's targets are guaranteed to drop which is a huge problem for his production because his primary asset is efficiency on high volume.

I second this. I like Keenan Allen but if the question is "Are we nervous about Keenan" the short answer is yes for the reasons about. Mike Williams only pulls volume from him and with a continued Henry emergence, it will be challenging for Allan to be the one man show there like he was two years ago.

[onetwothree]

Little bit worried about my Travis Benjamin shares...

Think the dream might be over before it began.

[Walter W.]

Was done with Allen last year, but he was on my IR and had no value. During the off season I was able to trade him for Tevin Coleman straight up, glad to have Allen off of my roster.

[Tsunami]

Keenan owner here, and a little salty this morning, as I was hoping Williams would land anywhere besides LA. Question for other Keenan owners...

Would you draft Williams and potentially double dip with him and Keenan? I've got 1.5 so there is a chance that he may be there.

Rivers is getting pretty old, I wouldn't do it unless you have a lot of faith that he plays out his contract at least.

[jcc6fd]

I don't see how Keenan's value and production don't take a hit here. However, most (pre-draft) viewed Mike Williams as a solid complimentary WR2 for a team, so I don't think the writing is on the wall that Keenan's WR1 role will disappear. I'd say he's a strong hold for current owners. Let the beginning of the season play out and (barring injury dear God) Keenan could end up recouping some value.

I think the more notable thing here is that Tyrell Williams just lost a TON of stock. His volume is going to plummet