Martavis Bryant chance of success?

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I'm worried because you put random drug test in quotations making it seem like it is a line of text people say. Yes NFL 100% does random drug testing, do you know what that means? I don't even know how you wouldn't know that. No most of the time they don't, they are notified within a small window of when the testing is actually done and there is quite a few that get "random drug tests".

"Random drug testing" for NFL players (and yes I will continue to put it in quotes because a typical employer doesn't give you a window...it is basically go to place X at noon TODAY) does not occur with players who are not in the substance abuse program. There is about a 3 1/2 month window in which the testing takes place. Outside of that window, there is no testing for those players. Here is the exact wording from the policy:

"Pre-Season: All Players under contract with an NFL Club will be tested once during the period beginning April 20 and continuing through August 9"

While the DATE is random, players are already aware ahead of this time frame when testing is to begin. Once they are outside of this window, they are basically free to do whatever they wish. So let's take Von Miller who got to Stage One - but no further...he "learned his lesson" so to speak. This is not the case with these others, including Bryant. Stage One does not even require testing.

To advance to Stage Two and then Stage Three, players have had to have had repeated violations. This is where I call it a "lack of self control" which you don't seem to like that term. Call it whatever you wish. These are players who have been caught repeatedly - and yet continue the same behavior putting themselves are more risk of further suspension.

Martavis (like with Gordon and Blackmon) failed Stage Three which is what earned him the indefinite suspension to be reviewed after a year to apply for reinstatement.

There are a lot of optimistic people out here that seem to think "lesson learned" but I am still going to fall back to the idea that it is a lesson that should have been learned a while ago - prior to ever getting to Stage Three. Realistically, the odds are working against him given his continued failure to change prior to now.

[dlf_jules]

But, you can use the results of the poll to calculate the community opinion-and thus the chances of his success. JMO

That's the thing: you can't use the results of the poll to calculate the community's belief about his chances of success--not very well, at least. All we know is that the median voter (so far) thinks his chances of another violation are less than 50%.

[kamihamster]

But, you can use the results of the poll to calculate the community opinion-and thus the chances of his success. JMO

That's the thing: you can't use the results of the poll to calculate the community's belief about his chances of success--not very well, at least. All we know is that the median voter (so far) thinks his chances of another violation are less than 50%.

I disagree. If the choices were percentages I believe the results would show most everyone thinks his chances of success are <100%. But then you have to define success. This is more a black and white poll to determine the shade of grey the community as a whole thinks. "Gun to your head" decision--he succeeds or fails. Knowing that 40% of the community thinks he has a 35% chance of failure tells me something, but it's pretty confusing too because what's the baseline of the average player?

For me, there was too much to take into account with a gradient poll so the question is basically a yes or no--each individual voter has to take into account all they know about football, life, and their personal experiences and boil it down into a yes or no, and from that we can get a feel for what the community thinks his chances are.

[onetwothree]

The interesting thing to me is how you always hear the ex-players talking on TV about how "everyone" smokes weed. Same thing that's always said about the NBA.

Seems like the "easy" thing to do is not get busted at the combine (or have a reputation from college) and you won't be put in the program and be subjected to more "random" testing.

Is the slate wiped clean after X amount of time/clean tests?

[AZK]

Not an assumption, there was a real sports piece about it. No reason for me to assume. They are not always informed 30 days ahead. They do random drug tests as well....

There is reasons why Bryant completely cut out Marijuana for a whole year. The windows would be to close for a drug test to occur. That would give me tons of faith in him knowing that he was willing to cut it out completely and take no risks with anything that could potentionally keep him out of football indefinitely. It means that football is important to him than any extracurricular activities.

Players not in the drug program are only tested between 4/20 - and 8/9. Nowhere did I say they were given 30 days notice, only that players that couldn't quit 30 days prior to the drug testing dates that are clearly defined are the ones that then fail and become scrutinized.

Here:
According to the league's drug policy , that testing only happens between April 20 and Aug. 9, though players signed or acquired after Aug. 9 can be tested later than that if they haven't been already. In addition, rookies and any players not under contract with a team at the end of the prior season are also subject to pre-employment testing.

The policy goes on to identify exactly which drugs it characterizes as "substances of abuse" and are subject to testing:

Cocaine Marijuana "Amphetamines and its analogs" Opiates ("total morphine and codeine") Opioids ("hydrocodone, oxycodone") PCP "MDMA and its analogues"

The "substances of abuse" testing should not be confused with the testing for performance-enhancing drugs. As NFL spokesman Greg Aiello explained to MLive.com in 2012 :

"Year-round random testing takes place in the steroids program, not the substance abuse program. If a player is in the substance abuse program, he is subject to frequent testing as determined by the medical professionals of the program. If he's not in the program, he takes an annual drug screen prior to the season."

Ok, you just repeated what I said. What point are you trying to prove here? You originally said players were randomly tested and then proceeded to post the guidelines for them being tested during the dates I said previous.

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Is the slate wiped clean after X amount of time/clean tests?

For someone like Bryant he will be in Stage Three for the rest of his career. I believe the only way you are ever "out" is if you successfully complete Stage One (90 days?). But I believe a secondary offense at any point in the future moves you into Stage Two.