What constitutes a fair first offer?

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SteveVolk
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby SteveVolk » Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:57 pm

I certainly agree with this idea, that the offer should take into account the other team's needs. And I do not want to be contrary, especially since I agree with the overall point, but some teams are satisfied by having less depth than others—in other words, what one manager thinks a team needs might be different than what the owner thinks. That is why I say I think the most important thing is to communicate, to figure out what the other team might be looking for in a trade. Also, apologies, I didn't really see posts indicating that people sometimes use calculators as a kind of weapon in negotiation, and thought people here were just slagging them off entirely. —Best, Steve

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Goirish374
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Goirish374 » Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:00 pm

The argument many people are talking around without expressly articulating is that a trade calculator is only as good as what's under the hood.

Which is fine. That's not really the problem.

The problem tends to be that *you don't know what that is.*

If Tsumani codes his personal calculator designed to an ADP that he absolutely agrees with at every pick, that also deviates from it based on draft strategy, team need, breaking news, etc then yay! It will probably be an extremely effective proxy for his personal pre-draft plan.

It will not, however, as of 2017, do the one thing we need a nascent AI to always be able to do: know when to deviate from its programming and adapt/improvise.

Most likely, however, none of that is the case with the trade calculator you are using.

"Oh, its just ADP." Well, ok. How was that ADP generated? Where does it match your value? Where does it deviate? Critically: why? Can the trade calculator deviate from its programming when you personally would want it to?

Abstracted far enough a trade calculator is a (fledgling) AI-- which means it is subject to the same challenges, pitfalls and quandaries that plague AI design (my guess is randomfantasyfootballtradecalculator.com has devoted fewer and less impressive resources to solving these problems than the scientific community has at AI design, but that's a digression).

The issue isn't that one has followed the output of an AI but, rather (critically), that one probably has no idea what constitutes the inputs--rendering one beyond powerless to evaluate the qualities of those outputs.

The fact that these same ill-understood and misperceived outputs are then used as a measure (or an enforcment of) quality should be mind-boggling.
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby thewirelessathlete » Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:04 pm

Goirish374 wrote: Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:00 pm The argument many people are talking around without expressly articulating is that a trade calculator is only as good as what's under the hood.

Which is fine. That's not really the problem.

The problem tends to be that *you don't know what that is.*

If Tsumani codes his personal calculator designed to an ADP that he absolutely agrees with at every pick, that also deviates from it based on draft strategy, team need, breaking news, etc then yay! It will probably be an extremely effective proxy for his personal pre-draft plan.

It will not, however, as of 2017, do the one thing we need a nascent AI to always be able to do: know when to deviate from its programming and adapt/improvise.

Most likely, however, none of that is the case with the trade calculator you are using.

"Oh, its just ADP." Well, ok. How was that ADP generated? Where does it match your value? Where does it deviate? Critically: why? Can the trade calculator deviate from its programming when you personally would want it to?

Abstracted far enough a trade calculator is a (fledgling) AI-- which means it is subject to the same challenges, pitfalls and quandaries that plague AI design (my guess is randomfantasyfootballtradecalculator.com has devoted fewer and less impressive resources to solving these problems than the scientific community has at AI design, but that's a digression).

The issue isn't that one has followed the output of an AI but, rather (critically), that one probably has no idea what constitutes the inputs--rendering one beyond powerless to evaluate the qualities of those outputs.

The fact that these same ill-understood and misperceived outputs are then used as a measure (or an enforcment of) quality should be mind-boggling.
:wtf: dude.

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Goirish374
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Goirish374 » Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:38 pm

thewirelessathlete wrote: Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:04 pm
:wtf: dude.
fair enough. focus on this part:

How was that ADP generated? Where does it match your value? Where does it deviate? Critically: why? Can the trade calculator deviate from its programming when you personally would want it to?
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Tsunami » Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:35 pm

Goirish374 wrote: Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:38 pm
thewirelessathlete wrote: Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:04 pm
:wtf: dude.
fair enough. focus on this part:

How was that ADP generated? Where does it match your value? Where does it deviate? Critically: why? Can the trade calculator deviate from its programming when you personally would want it to?
This is where I actually think the calc is an improvement over the human brain. People will rank one player higher than another but still balk at making that trade for a number of irrational reasons. When trading picks and multiple players it gets even more complicated. I use a calc to try to avoid that psychological hesitation. The calc has no fear of trading away your only QB in April. It is a tool used not for creating the best win now lineup (although there are ways to do this, particularly useful for auction value calcs in weird scoring formats) because it would only be as good as your projections ultimately.

But a trade calc is very useful for frequent traders to increase your team's trade value and avoid the pitfall of an offer that appeals to your heart but isn't favorable. I've used one for years and sometimes I will be sent an offer that I think I want to accept, but when I put it into my calc it's worse than the last offer I rejected. The brain is easily fooled sometimes, the calc isn't. I use a calc because I don't want to deviate.

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Goirish374 » Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:59 pm

the problems are:

a) the calc is only as valuable as your understanding of the elements that make it up. most of the time that understanding is zero. if you don't understand the inputs (why the calc values players a certain way) then you can't understand the outputs. if you can't understand the outputs then you can't reasonably be said to understand the values attached to them.

(there is absolutely a role for internal consistency within a given negotiation. your example of a different offer within the same trade negotiation that is actually less valuable after shifting a bunch of offered pieces around is a good one)

b) value frequently depends on things that change. if a calc can't adapt for changing circumstances then it can't offer a dynamically relevant definition of value.
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Goirish374 » Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:03 pm

perhaps a better way of saying it is: yes, the calculator will not deviate...but from what?

if you don't know the answer to that question, then what is the worth of not deviating?
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Tsunami » Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:45 am

I don't think it matters whether you know how it works. If I make a calc and put it online then it works just as well for you as for me. The difference is that you're basing your team on someone else's calc, but that's not so different from basing your team on someone else's rankings. They might be worse than doing it yourself, but they might be better also. Perhaps you are saying that the calc is only as good as the one who designs it? So we can debate whether any individual trade calc is good or bad, but to generalize them all as not being useful is what I disagree with.

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Goirish374 » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:19 am

sort of.

i think that a trade calculator is only as a useful as the knowledge the person using it has about how different the calculator's values are from the values of the person using it. if there is no difference then yay! you've got a great time saver on your hands...but you need to know a bit about it to figure out if that's true to a meaningful degree.

there is much greater transparency with a list of rankings. you can see exactly where differences lie and quantify those differences.

perhaps the best thing to do when you find one you are considering using is to pick a number of polarizing players--or players who you know you are "off consensus" on--and see how the trade calculator values the in terms of rookie picks. Moncrief. Mixon. Martin. Adams. Treadwell. Marshall. Peterson. Bryant. Abdullah. Bridgewater. This kind of calibration exercise can go a long way to helping someone understand what's going on under the hood and how to interpret a calculator's results in the context of their own value.
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby FiremanEd » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:44 am

Part of why I would use it is to get a consensus opinion relative to my own to see where I can take advantage my opinion relative to the masses, and/or ensure that my offer isn't considered 'insulting' based on my potentially biased opinion on a player like that. Overall, it is just another validation point on making a 'fair' offer...noting that any offer can be considered unfair based on personal opinion variance.

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:03 am

This has been a very interesting discussion. I think the best way to help ensure you make a fair first offer is

(a) know your target owner

Obviously if you are new to a league that makes it tough - but you can always review league history to see what types of trades an owner is likely to accept.

(b) like many above have suggested communicate

This ties into (a). The more you talk to your fellow owners hopefully the more likely they will offer you something you like and vice versa.

(c) dont offer anything listed in worst trade thread :lol:

In all seriousness, I think many of us totally get trying to buy low - but some owners take it to an extreme, and the odds of actually making such a trade steal vs. amount of doors closed makes it to me a highly negative proposition. To each their own though.
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