What constitutes a fair first offer?

[lukkynumber13]

in truth there is no bad initial offer assuming you are dealing with adults...

But there are initial bad offers. Not sure why you think there can't be any? I just finished start up draft last week. Proceeded to get an offer of the other teams player picked in round 19 for my player picked in round 12. He "sweetened" the deal with a 2018 4th rd pick. How is this a good offer? Don't think I'm being all high and mighty here. Does the offer really bother me? No. Is it bad? Yes

So, to clarify perhaps.
Bad offers can happen, but in perception only; as in, my perceived value and the other manager's perceived values are off, sometimes substantially. I absolutely can agree on that, but it can start you on the path; any offer can be the start of a fruitful negotiation. This assumes it is not part of a spamstorm - I have encountered that, those are the real bad offers, and the single most annoying owners.

Oh no, CC, haha I think I'm in a league with you!

[Goddard]

No I meant the person bitching about receiving an offer like that ? Its an offer an I could see many reasons to accept that offer for OBJ . If you had no depth then giving up a stud for many mix and match pieces could be fine roster management . I have been beating the brains out of people for years that must have the studs and then 1st injury or bye week they are moaning about bad luck or the fantasy gods hating them. Having 5 solid wr is going to cover any bye week issues and guard against even serious injury woes . That said it would be solely roster dependent , If I am starting from scratch and so is everyone else then obviously OBJ is the 1:1 or real close but after the draft ends I intend to win games and then games from week 4 til week 12 with all the bye weeks are nearly as important as weeks 14 through 16 . Obj isn't getting you to the playoffs by himself but 5 weekly starters can be a great boon in that effort . If you have an injury at rb and obj is all you have you are done or if you are other owners mercy you will sell obj for a lesser wr and a rb but with 5 guys you can perhaps go get some help
without destroying the integrity of your team..

I think we're arguing two separate things.

First of all, no one's bitching and we're all discussing things on a fantasy football forum.

Second, I agree with you that if I'm rebuilding or my team sucks and all I have is OBJ, then I'd consider that offer, but even then I might ask for more.

Third, you argument only works for a team with no depth or one that's not very good. What if I just won the championship and have plenty of depth everywhere. According to the trade calculator, this would be a fair offer, but I'd be stupid to take it. I wouldn't bitch about it, but I'd laugh to myself and kindly decline.

The whole point of my argument wasn't whether or not 5 for 1 trades are good or bad, but that we shouldn't base them off of TRADE CALCULATORS because they don't consider team needs, makeup, or any other relevant factors.

[ChuckCecil26]

Ha, yeah trade calculators are dumb.

I've never once been offended by a trade offer. I'm always confused as to why owners take offense to a low ball offer. Who cares?
What I dislike more than a lowball is when an owner contacts me with the question "what would you take for...?" My response is always, "make an offer." I'd rather just have someone offer me a 2nd rounder for Todd Gurley and then we can go from there.

With all that said, I always try to make a pretty even initial offer. Even in instances where I might start a bit low I like to make it something respectable that will at least get the other owner engaged. Always, always, always take the other owners roster needs into consideration.

Great comment.

I typically don't mind the "what would you take for" approach if it's from an owner who've I've done business with in the past. If it's from a habitual window shopper who never follows through... annoying as hell.

[Tsunami]

The whole point of my argument wasn't whether or not 5 for 1 trades are good or bad, but that we shouldn't base them off of TRADE CALCULATORS because they don't consider team needs, makeup, or any other relevant factors.

Walk it back all you want, but it would be possible to make a trade calc that factors in all those things. I could program a fantasy football AI to run my team and it would do pretty well up until week 1 when it had to decide who to start. Trades aren't hard to quantify. But I'm pretty sure no one was arguing that you should take every trade the calc likes.

[Goddard]

The whole point of my argument wasn't whether or not 5 for 1 trades are good or bad, but that we shouldn't base them off of TRADE CALCULATORS because they don't consider team needs, makeup, or any other relevant factors.

Walk it back all you want, but it would be possible to make a trade calc that factors in all those things. I could program a fantasy football AI to run my team and it would do pretty well up until week 1 when it had to decide who to start. Trades aren't hard to quantify. But I'm pretty sure no one was arguing that you should take every trade the calc likes.

Maybe it would be possible to make one, but I haven't seen one that does that yet. I'm not smart enough to create it, but if you say you are, maybe you should make it. I'd love to utilize it as a tool.

Not sure what I'm "walking back," but I think I've been pretty clear as to what my argument has been from the start. If you still don't get it, then not sure I'm going to be able to get through.

[ChuckCecil26]

My experience in the forum is that there are a lot of dynasty owners who rarely make trades -- yet post trade advice in virtually every trade thread that comes up. Some of the suggestions I see are not well reasoned. It's like going to an auto mechanics forum with a question about transmission repair and getting "advice" from people who couldn't tell a kickdown cable from a drain pan.

But it's easy to spot the true trade mechanics here (aka dynasty owners who've made hundreds of trades, have stomached the risk and understand how the game is played).

[Missile]

The whole point of my argument wasn't whether or not 5 for 1 trades are good or bad, but that we shouldn't base them off of TRADE CALCULATORS because they don't consider team needs, makeup, or any other relevant factors.

Walk it back all you want, but it would be possible to make a trade calc that factors in all those things. I could program a fantasy football AI to run my team and it would do pretty well up until week 1 when it had to decide who to start. Trades aren't hard to quantify. But I'm pretty sure no one was arguing that you should take every trade the calc likes.

I don't think the issue is necessarily using a trade calculator. It's the other team telling me how fair their offer is based on the calculator. Like I'm crazy for declining. "The trade calculator has you winning the deal. Why would you decline?!". That is the most bothersome part.

[Mephistopheles]

I don't think the issue is necessarily using a trade calculator. It's the other team telling me how fair their offer is based on the calculator. Like I'm crazy for declining. "The trade calculator has you winning the deal. Why would you decline?!". That is the most bothersome part.

X100

[SteveVolk]

I find this thread incredible for the amount of condescension and arbitrary rule making about deals.

*And if somebody shows me a Twitter poll or a trade calculator screen shot about how their deal is "fair" or my offer is "unfair" - I *automatically terminate the discussion. Without exception.

Really? I have been playing dynasty for four years and continue to look at trade calculators and the dynasty trade finder to get some sense of how the deal I am offering might be perceived. The trade calculators around the industry seem pretty solid to me, basing their results on ADP and—if they include rookie picks—past hit/bust rates for those spots. In other words, they use math, which I hardly find laughable or without any worth. I have never sent a screen shot or Twitter post but, if the other owner starts blasting me for sending an insulting offer, I have been noted to respond by saying that I endeavored to be fair, and that I checked ADP for the players involved (at this time of year you can even do that with rookie picks, and perhaps a trade calculator). If it turns out the other owner gets even more offended because, in a stats based game, I dared to use math, so be it.

Here's an exercise for all the smart guys here who say trade calculators are worthless. Back up your talk. Show me a trade where the calculator says it looks about even that is, in fact, ridiculous. In my own experience, the only exception I've seen is when some huge news just broke—like a suspension—and the site has yet to redo its rankings.

My advice. Do send balanced offers. Also, go ahead and use a trade calculator and ADP whenever you want. If the other owner throws a hissy fit, I guess they are just prone to that sort of thing. Finally, my biggest suggestion is this: Communicate. In other words, never be the guy who just cuts off talks for some invented reason. Things have worked out that way for me. I am finding, entering season five, that a couple of owners who seemed reluctant to deal with me for whatever reason now communicate with me all of the time.

—Best, Steve

[Mephistopheles]

I find this thread incredible for the amount of condescension and arbitrary rule making about deals.

*And if somebody shows me a Twitter poll or a trade calculator screen shot about how their deal is "fair" or my offer is "unfair" - I *automatically terminate the discussion. Without exception.

Really? I have been playing dynasty for four years and continue to look at trade calculators and the dynasty trade finder to get some sense of how the deal I am offering might be perceived. The trade calculators around the industry seem pretty solid to me, basing their results on ADP and—if they include rookie picks—past hit/bust rates for those spots. In other words, they use math, which I hardly find laughable or without any worth. I have never sent a screen shot or Twitter post but, if the other owner starts blasting me for sending an insulting offer, I have been noted to respond by saying that I endeavored to be fair, and that I checked ADP for the players involved (at this time of year you can even do that with rookie picks, and perhaps a trade calculator). If it turns out the other owner gets even more offended because, in a stats based game, I dared to use math, so be it.

Here's an exercise for all the smart guys here who say trade calculators are worthless. Back up your talk. Show me a trade where the calculator says it looks about even that is, in fact, ridiculous. In my own experience, the only exception I've seen is when some huge news just broke—like a suspension—and the site has yet to redo its rankings.

My advice. Do send balanced offers. Also, go ahead and use a trade calculator and ADP whenever you want. If the other owner throws a hissy fit, I guess they are just prone to that sort of thing. Finally, my biggest suggestion is this: Communicate. In other words, never be the guy who just cuts off talks for some invented reason. Things have worked out that way for me. I am finding, entering season five, that a couple of owners who seemed reluctant to deal with me for whatever reason now communicate with me all of the time.

—Best, Steve

Yes - I said it, it's not intended to be condescending at all. When an owner emails me a screen shot of his trade calculator or his Twitter poll, in my experience, it's gone past a discussion and into the realm of an enforcement. It comes across as the other owner saying "See, I'm right and you're wrong". Okay, so DTC or 101 out of 200 random stoners on Twitter or whatever say it's a "fair" offer, but that won't change that I don't think it works for my team for whatever reason...and usually I've told them why in my response. It's not a "hissy fit", for me it's turning the other cheek and choosing not to get dragged into that type of ridiculous, fruitless argument.

I'll give you an example. I have a guy in one of my leagues who does this all the time. He sent me several offers (some multiple times) a couple months ago offering Alshon Jeffery for various players and my 2017 and 2018 1st round picks. I turned them all down, told him I had no interest in Jeffery as I want nothing to do with any players in the wellness program as a matter of personal preference. He immediately spams me with screenshots from DTC showing all were "fair" offers, and ranting about not wanting to deal with people who always have to "win" trades (keep in mind - I did not counter him or ask for a lower price, just said I did not want Jeffery).

Yes, I use calculators and other tools the same way you do - to judge how a deal may or may not be perceived. I have no problem with someone using them as a tool (just like coming to DLF forum to put up a poll about a trade offer), but too many people use them as the "final authority" to force another owner to agree to their deal even though it may run contrary to their own judgment, preferences, ranking or team structure.

[thewirelessathlete]

Hey now fellas...there is too much drama going on here that was not stirred up by me. Let me toe the line, and interject a little here.

I think the main point about trade calculators was not about their value or validity in terms of the information they offer. I think the point being made is that when people use trade calculators as a JUSTIFICATION for sending an offer that ignores all of the other factors essential in making the trade relatively fair for both sides. Factors like team need, the omitted players in a package deal, and not to mention personal preference. When those facts are ignored for the sake of personal gain I don't care what you think about trade calculators, love them or hate them, that is annoying. Trade calculators have value if put into proper perspective. By themselves, they are actually incomplete without a context. So in true Vince form, I will close by saying.... please everyone stop the crying and arguing about trade calculator vs no trade calculator because THATS NOT THE POINT!!!! The point is a trade calculator is a good starting point, however, it must then be tweaked based on the needs, and preferences of the other team...if my needs aren't being considered in an offer from the jump that's bad form no matter what tool you are using.

Yes, I use calculators and other tools the same way you do - to judge how a deal may or may not be perceived. I have no problem with someone using them as a tool (just like coming to DLF forum to put up a poll about a trade offer), but too many people use them as the "final authority" to force another owner to agree to their deal even though it may run contrary to their own judgment, preferences, ranking or team structure.

basically this

[Goddard]

Hey now fellas...there is too much drama going on here that was not stirred up by me. Let me toe the line, and interject a little here.

I think the main point about trade calculators was not about their value or validity in terms of the information they offer. I think the point being made is that when people use trade calculators as a JUSTIFICATION for sending an offer that ignores all of the other factors essential in making the trade relatively fair for both sides. Factors like team need, the omitted players in a package deal, and not to mention personal preference. When those facts are ignored for the sake of personal gain I don't care what you think about trade calculators, love them or hate them, that is annoying. Trade calculators have value if put into proper perspective. By themselves, they are actually incomplete without a context. So in true Vince form, I will close by saying.... please everyone stop the crying and arguing about trade calculator vs no trade calculator because THATS NOT THE POINT!!!! The point is a trade calculator is a good starting point, however, it must then be tweaked based on the needs, and preferences of the other team...if my needs aren't being considered in an offer from the jump that's bad form no matter what tool you are using.

Yes, I use calculators and other tools the same way you do - to judge how a deal may or may not be perceived. I have no problem with someone using them as a tool (just like coming to DLF forum to put up a poll about a trade offer), but too many people use them as the "final authority" to force another owner to agree to their deal even though it may run contrary to their own judgment, preferences, ranking or team structure.

basically this

Good post Vince.

[Tsunami]

Sometimes when I send what I think is a fair dynasty offer to an owner with wildly different value system (such as one used to standard scoring redraft leagues) and they become offended by my horrible attempt at ripping them off I feel the need to defend myself. I've never sent a screenshot of a trade calc as evidence of fairness, but sometimes I do feel the need to link a dynasty rankings site so the person won't think I am trying to take advantage. If people think you are a scammer they will be less likely to do a deal with you in the future. I'm not telling the person they should have accepted, just that I was trying to make a fair offer without the ability to read their mind.

[FiremanEd]

The original Trade Calculator discussion initiated and was driven from the comment that people should not use Trade Calculators pretty much in general. In a thread about 'fair' offers, not 'good' offers, I'm of the 'why not use them' opinion. If it moved away from the actual topic it started that's fine, but i'm not sure it did. A 'good' offer takes into account the other teams needs, team makeup, team direction, etc. etc. A 'fair' offer is related to the assets on each side of the deal in terms of value. While not always up to date with breaking news, and no doubt some players do not align with their assigned value from what i see, but they can at least provide another validation point to check an offer that takes into account the mass opinion, or at least a consensus of a group of people. That can be better than individual opinion, which can vary much more significantly. Why not add it as a piece to the process of building a 'fair first offer'?

I agree using it as a tool to stick it to someone who declined, or to call them a doofus in isolation is stupid, but referencing that is outside of the tool itself. Those people aren't worth the time, or perhaps were driven to that behavior by an unnecessary response in the decline. Who knows.

I don't use calculators exclusively, don't use them to 'prove it' to those who decline, or any of that other stuff, but I'm willing to admit that I do regularly use it to see if i'm in the ball park on something, while considering the broader details of my league and potential trade partner. Dismissing them outright and laughing at any reference to them seems a little extreme.

[thewirelessathlete]

A 'good' offer takes into account the other teams needs, team makeup, team direction, etc. etc. A 'fair' offer is related to the assets on each side of the deal in terms of value.

This was quality input. Differentiating between what is "fair" vs what is "quality" is an important pivot point in this discussion. Im sure we could all drum up some trades that may be fair in on paper in most situations, but the quality might change depending on the context.