2017 Rookie QBs - Are you Buying the Hype?

[Servo]

This is for the SuperFlex/2QB brethren:

- Mahomes now being talked about as one of the 1st QBs off the board, possibly to someone like Arizona? Are his mechanics correctable? A la happy feet, throwing off balance etc? Does he actually have the Stafford/Favre ceiling people are throwing out?

- Watson, yes, played in big games and won big games, has the ability to run but is anyone worried about his lackluster velocity? 49 MPH.

- Trubisky, 1 year starter, he definitely made the correct decision coming out to the NFL from a financial standpoint but will it pay off on the field?

- Kizer, a lot say he has one of the highest ceilings but has pretty significant accuracy issues. Can that be corrected by a good coaching staff?

We can revisit this of course, in 10 days, after we see where they end up.

[Monkey]

TL;DR: In this draft class with so much talent at other positions and these QBs needing time to develop, they are better investments starting in the second round.

I'll mirror what I've seen some analysts saying.. these guys are developmental quarterbacks and none of them belong in the first round, but several of them will likely go in the first due to QB needy teams, both the kind looking for a competitive starter and the teams with aging vets under center.

I have studied these guys a lot as I really needed to bolster my QB position in one of my Superflex leagues, but I ended up trading away some pieces to acquire Russell Wilson. Normally I would say at least one QB should be going in the first round of Superflex rookie drafts, but this year I'm not so sure.

Kizer has some of the best physical tools of these guys, yes the accuracy is an issue, but it's not Kaaya bad and I do think it's correctable. One of the things I think he needs is some more confidence. If he goes somewhere with a bad oline and is expected to start week 1, it will be a true trial by fire and he will either flourish because he has to or he will burn out and become a total 'bust'. If he goes somewhere like Pittsburgh or Arizona where he can learn for a year or two before taking over he could be an excellent passer.

Watson is a winner, that's his best asset imo. The velocity is an issue, the historical data is not in his favor on that. Maybe NFL trainers and the locker room combined with the right system helps him there. He's one of those guys that is just a football player, you try to explain a concept to him by throwing words at him, he will seem lost, but once he's on the field and sees it in front of him, he seems to grip it quickly. If I had to pick a guy to start week 1 out of this class, it would have to be Watson as he's proven he can thrive under pressure.

Trubisky I just can't get excited about. The tools are pretty good, the size is good, but when I've watched him in interviews and at the white board, he seems the most lost out of these guys. Maybe that's just the way he talks or something, or I haven't seen the right interviews, but I think he's the farthest from field ready of the four.

Mahomes is my personal "highest ceiling" guy because the kid seems to just have insane natural talent. He is a straight up boom or bust. The guys decision making and mechanics can be straight up terrible. His arm is straight up incredible. On fixing him, it's one of those difficult decisions, is it broken if he can make the throw? Are you going to break his ability and talent by trying to fix his mechanics? Do you leave it alone and just face palm when he throws side arm for 30 yards? He will also need time to develop, he's never worked in a huddle or directly under center. Also if you don't like the historical data on throwing velocity, the historical success rate of guys from Air Raid offenses isn't much better.

Davis Webb is another name to be mindful of, he's got some good skills, some issues. His throwing velocity is almost as good as Mahomes (59 mph compared to Mahomes 60 mph iirc). Got injured at Texas Tech, Mahomes took his job, transferred to Cal after Goff went to the NFL, had a great year throwing passes to Chad Hansen. With the right coach and a little time, he could be just as good as any of these other guys and should cost you a lot less in your rookie drafts. Not sure if it's just his agent, but there's even been talk of him being a 1st round guy.

End of the day, much like the NFL draft, these guys are probably only worth a 2nd round investment, especially with the talent at the other positions this year, but because there will be QB needy teams, at least one or two will make it into the first. Also, keep in mind 2018 is looking decent for QBs...

Long post over.

[Servo]

If any of these QBs go to the Jets (looking like Watson or Trubisky), I don't know if I could convince myself at all...with the way things are going I don't know how much longer Bowles will survive.

However, there are some other teams that I would be very intrigued by their situation if they landed there:

Cleveland - I know, I know but a revamped O-Line, WR in Coleman/Britt and decent RB in Crowell

Buffalo - I wouldn't hate it but it wouldn't make much sense to me with Tyrod resigning. They should spend time building around Tyrod instead of underneath him hah

Arizona - Would feel very comfortable with whoever they choose, yes, Fitzgerald is going to be gone soon but I trust Arians.

Kansas City - kinda funny how KC has been one of the best teams the last half decade and yet, everyone hates Alex Smith. Would feel confident with them as well.

Houston - Savage would have a make or break year, leaving the rookie time to hopefully develop. Kinda similar to what Denver did this year....probably not the best choice for the franchise.

Saints - Would be a sneaky pick but I don't know how long Payton would survive without Brees....appears he's always available to be fired or traded at the end of the year.

[Monkey]

I'd be very intrigued by Pittsburgh as well. I think it's safe to say Big Ben is back this year despite the way he's been talking this offseason, but that doesn't mean he isn't eyeing retirement in the near future.

[Goddard]

I think kizer might be the most skilled and have the higher floor, with Mahomes having the higher ceiling.

[Valhalla]

TL;DR:

Followed by....

In this draft class with so much talent at other positions and these QBs needing time to develop, they are better investments starting in the second round.

I'll mirror what I've seen some analysts saying.. these guys are developmental quarterbacks and none of them belong in the first round, but several of them will likely go in the first due to QB needy teams, both the kind looking for a competitive starter and the teams with aging vets under center.

I have studied these guys a lot as I really needed to bolster my QB position in one of my Superflex leagues, but I ended up trading away some pieces to acquire Russell Wilson. Normally I would say at least one QB should be going in the first round of Superflex rookie drafts, but this year I'm not so sure.

Kizer has some of the best physical tools of these guys, yes the accuracy is an issue, but it's not Kaaya bad and I do think it's correctable. One of the things I think he needs is some more confidence. If he goes somewhere with a bad oline and is expected to start week 1, it will be a true trial by fire and he will either flourish because he has to or he will burn out and become a total 'bust'. If he goes somewhere like Pittsburgh or Arizona where he can learn for a year or two before taking over he could be an excellent passer.

Watson is a winner, that's his best asset imo. The velocity is an issue, the historical data is not in his favor on that. Maybe NFL trainers and the locker room combined with the right system helps him there. He's one of those guys that is just a football player, you try to explain a concept to him by throwing words at him, he will seem lost, but once he's on the field and sees it in front of him, he seems to grip it quickly. If I had to pick a guy to start week 1 out of this class, it would have to be Watson as he's proven he can thrive under pressure.

Trubisky I just can't get excited about. The tools are pretty good, the size is good, but when I've watched him in interviews and at the white board, he seems the most lost out of these guys. Maybe that's just the way he talks or something, or I haven't seen the right interviews, but I think he's the farthest from field ready of the four.

Mahomes is my personal "highest ceiling" guy because the kid seems to just have insane natural talent. He is a straight up boom or bust. The guys decision making and mechanics can be straight up terrible. His arm is straight up incredible. On fixing him, it's one of those difficult decisions, is it broken if he can make the throw? Are you going to break his ability and talent by trying to fix his mechanics? Do you leave it alone and just face palm when he throws side arm for 30 yards? He will also need time to develop, he's never worked in a huddle or directly under center. Also if you don't like the historical data on throwing velocity, the historical success rate of guys from Air Raid offenses isn't much better.

Davis Webb is another name to be mindful of, he's got some good skills, some issues. His throwing velocity is almost as good as Mahomes (59 mph compared to Mahomes 60 mph iirc). Got injured at Texas Tech, Mahomes took his job, transferred to Cal after Goff went to the NFL, had a great year throwing passes to Chad Hansen. With the right coach and a little time, he could be just as good as any of these other guys and should cost you a lot less in your rookie drafts. Not sure if it's just his agent, but there's even been talk of him being a 1st round guy.

End of the day, much like the NFL draft, these guys are probably only worth a 2nd round investment, especially with the talent at the other positions this year, but because there will be QB needy teams, at least one or two will make it into the first. Also, keep in mind 2018 is looking decent for QBs...

Long post over.

[FiremanEd]

An interesting class to say the least, and the fact that so many teams have come out and said they want to start future planning by bringing in a young guy to learn for a few years definitely means that while people haven't given this class a lot of credit, there is potential for future implications. Unfortunately most people don't play more than 1QB and therefore don't give a crap, likely because the stakes are ramped up on the hardest position to assess, but that's a different story. My initial point was that rarely do we see instances like this where teams are planning to spend a high pick and actually groom the player. It's usually top of draft forced selections with short-term turnaround times and force the guy in. Guys like Alex Smith, Eli, Rivers, etc. are not going to be 'forced' out this year, and unlikely to be next year either, meaning it is a true learning period, which is awesome. Even Arizona or Buffalo will be learning locations for a season. There are exceptions though obviously, like Cleveland, Jets, or Houston.

In terms of prospects, all seem very different. I absolutely cannot get on board with Kizer. I see the size, I see the flashes, but the guy is extremely inconsistent and already likely has confidence issues. He needs the learning period to work through his issues. A solid two years, or he's toast in my opinion.

Mahomes has a steep learning curve as well, but at least i can see him with the swagger and attitude to make plays on the field (while suffering many mental blips along the way) if forced into action sooner. His arm talent is impressive, and he is mobile with good thickness. I agree he can very easily bust, but he's got the physical qualities you want, and comes from a family where spots is present so he hopefully is a little more prepared for the experience.

Trubisky looks good, with a similar size and thickness to Mahomes, and I see the appeal of him as the top guy. He throws some nice balls, doesn't turn it over, and has mobility. Not sure i see an elite passer though.

Watson is a gamer. Love his toughness and leadership. He took beatings and kept on churning. However, when you run like he often did through designed runs, not just primarily scrambles like the above guys, you have to make a more conscious effort to change your game or you won't last long. He isn't that elusive, thick, or quick to avoid the hits. Given that he isn't a great passer either, I worry about both the longevity and ceiling, though his legs may work to fantasy early on.

Webb is intriguing and I think I would like as a developmental prospect more than Watson or Kizer, but behind Mahomes and Trubisky in terms of how I would rank them overall. He has a solid arm, good size, but similar to the others, has a decent learning curve to overcome. Will be interesting to see if one of the grooming teams takes him, or if a high 2nd round team trades into the 1st or sits tight and gets him. I think as a student he would benefit from the grooming process.

Landing spot will play a role in how I ultimatley view these guys, as for QBs it isn't always just the talent. Lots of challenges face the most important position, and unstable coaching, pressure markets, and bad OL can quickly hurt the development curve. I do look to take one in the high 2nd round though if it works out and then let sit on my taxi squad. Just got to decide if i like them enough to hold that long and then cross my fingers. I like the 2018 class a lot more...especially Allen.

[FiremanEd]

I'll add that looking at the poll, it surprises me. That said, with many individuals playing 1QB I think they focus on ceiling and potential to be a top 12 QB. The cost of any of them is low, so a 'safer' prospect isn't necessarily as good if the ceiling is perceived lower. In 2QB or Superflex, the player simply becoming a reliable starter provides value, and the cost of selecting any of these guys is much higher. I do think this concept impacts the results, even if people do prefer Mahomes in general.

Along those lines, I voted Mahomes, but i would expect that I can get him as the #2/3 QB with a high 2nd type of pick in Superflex rather than having to use that 1st to get one of the more hyped guys (Trubisky/Watson)...at least that's what i'm hoping. At this point in time I'm not sure i'd be willing to pull the trigger on Mahomes as the 1st QB in the 1.07-1.12 slots.

[onetwothree]

TL;DR: In this draft class with so much talent at other positions and these QBs needing time to develop, they are better investments starting in the second round.

Teams will move back into the late 1st to grab a QB to have the 5th year option.

[Monkey]

TL;DR:

Followed by....

Long post over.

I like to use my TL;DR's in the beginning to warn readers there are more details ahead before they start reading and go "oh wow, this is long" lol.

[Monkey]

TL;DR: In this draft class with so much talent at other positions and these QBs needing time to develop, they are better investments starting in the second round.

Teams will move back into the late 1st to grab a QB to have the 5th year option.

I meant that more for fantasy drafts they are better investments in the 2nd, but yes, that is a good reason why it will happen in the NFl draft.

[Valhalla]

TL;DR:

Followed by....

Long post over.

I like to use my TL;DR's in the beginning to warn readers there are more details ahead before they start reading and go "oh wow, this is long" lol.

Oh gotcha. I misunderstood and thought you were saying the OPs post was too long.

[Monkey]

Followed by....

I like to use my TL;DR's in the beginning to warn readers there are more details ahead before they start reading and go "oh wow, this is long" lol.

Oh gotcha. I misunderstood and thought you were saying the OPs post was too long.

oh, hope OP didn't take it that way!

[skip]

Mahomes apparently​ flying up boards in NFL and dynasty due to sudden hype. That's a major red flag/avoid situation for me. If he wasn't ranked that high coming out of the college season, there isn't anything he could have put on film since that time to justify it.

[Monkey]

I like the 2018 class a lot more...especially Allen.

I definitely agree. Obviously there's question of who will stay in school and who will come out, but any team that has some of these older QBs and you're looking at a young QB.. I strongly recommend you take a look at the 2018 prospects.

Mahomes was my "fun to watch" guy this year, so far Baker Mayfield has been that guy for me out of next years class. Josh Allen or Kyle Allen? I need to watch more of both.