2017 Rookie QBs - Are you Buying the Hype?

[onetwothree]

Mahomes apparently​ flying up boards in NFL and dynasty due to sudden hype. That's a major red flag/avoid situation for me. If he wasn't ranked that high coming out of the college season, there isn't anything he could have put on film since that time to justify it.

Thought some of it was just because it's easy/quicker to dismiss Texas Tech QBs because of the stat-friendly system and now that teams have had a chance to dig into a player and put them through workouts they have a better idea what he can do.

I think the flipside of it is true as Kizer went from potential QB1 to maybe 5 or 6 in this class as teams have had more time to interview him and dissect his tape.

[skip]

Thought some of it was just because it's easy/quicker to dismiss Texas Tech QBs because of the stat-friendly system and now that teams have had a chance to dig into a player and put them through workouts they have a better idea what he can do.

I think the flipside of it is true as Kizer went from potential QB1 to maybe 5 or 6 in this class as teams have had more time to interview him and dissect his tape.

Interesting take. I guess I figure if there are scouts and other front office personnel paid the kind of money they make to do nothing other than analyze the players for years, changing direction a couple weeks prior to the draft just doesn't sit right with me.

[FiremanEd]

Just because a casual fan starts hearing things doesn't mean it is new info or a new opinion. All it means is info was leaked or given to be shared publicly as well. But yes, the pre draft process will provide a more detailed understanding of a prospect, including the person themself. That's why the do interviews and private workouts to begin with.

[Servo]

I don't know how many of you actually listen to Gruden when it comes to QBs but anyone know what he had to say about these guys on his Camp episodes?

[Monkey]

I don't know how many of you actually listen to Gruden when it comes to QBs but anyone know what he had to say about these guys on his Camp episodes?

They are worth a watch, he doesn't have one on Webb that I've seen, but I watched his with Mahomes, Kizer, Watson, Trubisky, Kaaya, and Dobbs. They run about 20 minutes.

Quotes-
On Mahomes: "Incredible Tape." "I think he's the most interesting prospect in this draft period." "Gotta be more consistent, take better care of the football, be more patient. I think from a talent stand point he has the potential to be a top 10 pick."

On Kizer: "I tried to give him a lot of information to see what stuck and I thought he did a great job. He's got the size you look for, he's an athletic kid, he's sharp. He's got first round measurables across the board. If you're into the analytical stuff, this is your guy. I just think he needs a little bit of time.""I think a year from now, you're going to be really glad you have DeShone Kizer on your team."

On Trubisky: "Trubisky is one of the great mysteries in this draft, in the last ten years. Not a lot of quarterbacks come out after one year.""He was a back up for two years and when he got his shot, he lit it up man." "He is a great kid. You can tell he's been brought up right. This man loves football, he's got a lot of great intangibles, and it's important to him. He's big enough, he's athletic enough, he throws the ball well enough, to be a high pick in the draft."

On Watson: "What stands out on film is how much poise he plays with. He never gets rattled. Ever." "I want him on my team, I want him in my family, I want to be around this guy.""He's magnetic, he has an 'it' factor.""If you're into intangibles, if you're into work ethic, if you're into humility, if you want a guy that's going to be a great team mate.. you'd be a fool not to want him."

On Kaaya: "He had a rollercoaster of a career. They changed head coaches, coordinators, they changed uniforms all the time.""He's tough as hell, this guy will take hits, he'll get up, he'll keep playing, he'll fight through adversity." "My biggest take away is when he said, 'Hey, let's have 15 more minutes, I want to get through this. The guy genuinely loves the game and that's something I put at the top of my list; passion for the game, the guy loves it."

On Dobbs: "I give Dobbs an A because he's a great kid, he came to work, finished the day strong. I love young people that get it done on and off the field at a high level."

[M-Dub]

I did even realize there was any hype to buy about the 2017 QBs. Still seems like a pretty meh class to me. I guess I might try to snag Watson with one of my 3rds and taxi him if he ends up in a decent situation. I like the higher weekly ceiling that a mobile QB provides. Otherwise, I'm not very enthralled with this class.

[Servo]

Again, the "hype" isn't going to be felt by most dynasty players....as I feel 2QB and Superflex leagues are growing but not nearly on the same level as "normal" leagues.

In these leagues, you're looking at QBs in Rounds 1 and 2 of your rookie drafts. Where guys like Luck/Winston and even Mariota are going with the top picks.

[Cameron Giles]

I think this is a bad group of QB's, but it's likely that at least 1 of them will become something.

Watson has the most talent to be that player and the best intangibles. Dual threat QB, won in college, great leader, finds ways to win, etc.

Mahomes has the best arm, but I get a lot of Manziel vibes from him. Not off-field of course, but in terms of on-field style and that's probably not going to work at the next level.

Trubisky is the least proven, but seems to be the closest thing to what NFL scouts typically look for in QB's.

[Bison]

I like Mahomes best. Huge arm and he's a good student. Tape was pretty good. His mechanics specifically footwork are awful, but you can fix that. I can see him developing into a top 10 Qb. POSSIBLY.

Next, would be Trubisky. I like him, but he's hard to love. I see a possible starter, but not top 10. I'd draft him, but I certainly wouldn't reach.

I'd rank Watson third, but his arm strength or lack there of is a big concern for me. Unfixable issue that he will have to overcome. I can see why some like him, but I'd rather let someone else have him. I'd draft him if he slid a bit.

Davis Webb, I'd slot just below Watson. He reminds me a lot of Jay Cutler. It could be a lot of the same arrogance from both, but I could see him being the next Cutler. Which is not great, but Cutler's had a career worth fantasy relevance.

Kizer, I'd place fifth. With some of the comments coming from his coach, I smell way too many red flags. I'd pass on him unless he really slid in any of my drafts.

JMO.

[FiremanEd]

I heard that Kizer is a mix of Brady and Cam Newton...does this change any opinions?

[Valhalla]

I heard that Kizer is a mix of Brady and Cam Newton...does this change any opinions?

Brady's mobility and Cam's passing skills?

[Defender]

I heard that Kizer is a mix of Brady and Cam Newton...does this change any opinions?

Brady's mobility and Cam's passing skills?

[clarion contrarion]

I heard that Kizer is a mix of Brady and Cam Newton...does this change any opinions?

more like a mix of brady quinn & cam cameron former IU qb more well know as a mediocre O coord. & terrible head coach.


hey fireman ed does allens 56% completion rate worry you that seems scary low in this day and age even when I watch the tape I see some good things . The nebraska game was frightening to watch .

[FiremanEd]

Like any good evaluator, I wait to dive real deep until the prospect actually declares, and then I drop them significantly down my ranks for their negatives. I'm still in the swoon over underclassmen stage. Don't ruin my high man

[Servo]

I was listening to a Pod the other day saying that since like 2006* (can't remember the exact year), there really have not been many successful QBs that have "sat" for a year or two and become viable starters. Probably stemming from the fact that franchises have no patience and the incredibly short leashes that coaches have nowadays.

-Oz: definitely hasn't panned out so far, maybe CLE can salvage him?
-Tyrod: played 2014 in BAL and now BUF after sitting for ~3 seasons.
-Cousins: was off and on duty with RG3.
-Siemian: not your average situation but still probably counts.
-Kaep: sat for Alex Smith.
-Glennon: we'll see how this goes.

So while obviously some of the guys above have talent, a very small sample for 32 teams, relative to how many QBs "of the future" get drafted. I guess their point was how little these Developmental QBs actually come to fruition.

Great/Good QBs from the soon to be retired generation: Eli (played some his rookie season), Rivers (sat for 2 seasons for Brees), Brady (probably not fair to include), Palmer (sat behind Kitna for a year), Rodgers (sat for 3 seasons), Brees (pretty sure he sat for Flutie 1 year)

Less practice time? Less emphasis on actual development? Not sure, but after that generation leaves, you can't help but feel that the QB position is in deep trouble.