Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

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kamihamster
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby kamihamster » Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:16 pm

MEuRaH wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:43 am
kamihamster wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:45 am (1) In your analysis of each draft class, did you find any stand out classes?

(2) The '14 draft is talked about as one of the best ever, but did your analysis show that statistically? If so, how much better?

(3) Would you be able to adapt your chart to take into account bad, average, and good rookie crops?
Damn, great questions.

If each "stud" is 7 points, "starter" is 3, and "role player" is 1, the median score would be a 33, and that score perfectly divides the upper from the lower classes. On average, each draft class has 2.5 studs, a little over 4 starters, and 6 role players.

(1 & 2) The 2014 class definitely stands out. Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Beckham, and Allen Robinson headline that class. Then you still have Jordan Matthews, KB, Hyde, Freeman, Moncrief, Derek Carr... the list can go on and on. It's a crazy class and it dominates any other class with a whopping score of 71. The next closest is the 2010 class with a 38.

(1) Another class stands out in the wrong way. The 2009 draft class was terrible with a score of 17. That class was HORRID. LeSean McCoy was the lone stud, with Michael Crabtree helping out, and those guys had an ADP of 5 & 6. After that.... not much to see. TY Hilton was the ONLY stud ever drafted, on average, in the 4th round.

(3) This is a tough one. How does one assess the strength of an unknown draft class vs the average? I suppose I could make a "strength" setting that would increase or decrease the likelihood of studs. I guess it would be easy enough to do, and it would be opinion-based on the user's preferences. The current setup is based on the expected value based on 10 years of data, but doesn't take into account the possibility of a strong (2014) or weak (2009) draft class.... and going into those classes, we all knew how strong and weak they were.

Good feedback. This is something I can work on later today.
Thanks for the answers. That is interesting data.

Regarding question/answer 3. It would defiantly be opinion-based the same way stud/starter/role player values are opinion-based, but considering the variability of 71 to 17, I think taking this into account, even based off an opinion, can be helpful. While projecting is more an art than science, community opinions can change the market as we've seen with these '17 draft picks as it's considered a loaded one. Even if it's not a loaded class the perception is there which makes the picks more valuable. (Last year I could not get a 1st to same my life... i traded for a bunch of 2nds instead...) Maybe an adjustment of +/- 1 or 2 STDEV can be made to adjust value based off class strength? I'm no statistician, but love this kind of analysis. Thanks for taking the time to do it!
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby HEADBANGER » Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:24 pm

Thx MEuRaH!
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby kamihamster » Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:26 pm

continuing on. this just popped in my head. How many standard deviations off was the '14 and '09 class? Perhaps you can just have a standard deviation input where you can adjust based of class comparisons?

example... this 17 class is not as good as the 14 class but close.... the 14 class has a STDEV of +8... so I'll input +6
NTL (est 2016): (8-0)
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers, D.Jones
RB: A.Kamara, K.Johnson, K.Drake, Da.Henderson, C.Anderson, K.Ballage, T.Montgomery, J.Wilson, D.Ogunbowale, Dw.Washington, J.Kelly, P.Perkins, A.Blue
WR: O.Beckham, D.Hopkins, C.Kupp, D.Chark, R.Foster, A.Wilson, J.Reynolds, S.Morgan, B.Pringle, O.Johnson, D.Williams, D.Willis
TE: J.Cook, M.Andrews, A.Shaheen, B.Jarwin
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
2022 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4

Home League (est 2014): 2018 Champ (6-2)
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: P.Mahomes, J.Goff
RB: D.Cook, A.Kamara, J.Mixon, M.Breida, S.Michel, F.Gore, D.Guice, K.Ballage, D.Ogunbowale, R.Bonnafon, J.Scarlett, W.Gallman, J.Kelly, J.Wilson
WR: D.Adams, J.Smith-Schuster, T.Boyd, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, Jo.Brown, M.Valdes-Scantiling, K.Harmon, Z.Pascal
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper
DST: NOS
K: W.Lutz
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:27 pm

kamihamster wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:16 pmIt would defiantly be opinion-based the same way stud/starter/role player values are opinion-based
If you read my first topic, studs, starters, and role players have a clear definition, which I created based on ADP statistics. Any player that has a trade-value of two-or-more 1st rounders is a stud. Dez, AJG, Zeke, etc. These guys are clearly studs (by the given definition that I created, which in itself IS an opinion, so I'll give you that). I don't have to sit and ponder if a player was a stud, as I've been in fantasy football for 17 years, and I know which players were worth 2-or-more 1sts for nearly their entire careers, and which ones weren't.

Thanks for the rest of your post too. I think the strength of a draft can be found in the tiered-rankings prior to draft (I think that's the only way to do it....). For example, that 2014 draft class had a CRAZY tiered-rank. Watkins/Evans, then about 6-8 guys after that who were all considered for nearly any of those spots, and all compared to the top 2 guys. That's 10 players total. Everyone had a sense that it was going to be ridiculous. In this draft, there is 1 guy ranked at the top, with another 5 who are perceived as the next tier who are all compared to the assumed 1.01. So while I wouldn't consider it a weak class, it's also not as strong as 2010 was. I think it'll be on the plus side, MAYBE nearing the 40-mark, but I don't think it'll be crazy high.

Then again, that's where the opinion piece comes into play.
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:32 pm

kamihamster wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:26 pm continuing on. this just popped in my head. How many standard deviations off was the '14 and '09 class? Perhaps you can just have a standard deviation input where you can adjust based of class comparisons?

example... this 17 class is not as good as the 14 class but close.... the 14 class has a STDEV of +8... so I'll input +6
Well it depends on what data you're looking at. If you're looking at ADP in startups, the SD can be all over the map. If you're simply comparing rookies, it barely moves 1 spot, and this is for each draft class I looked it. You'll have to check page 1, but I talked about standard deviation somewhere, and simply tossed it out the window since it didn't make any significant changes from one draft class to another. The area in which to look for Studs didn't matter, there were just fewer of them.

But nearly every draft has 2.5 studs, 4-5 starters, and 5-6 role players, and it doesn't really vary that much from draft to draft. If you take out the 14 & 09 classes, that's hardly any change at all.
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby norsberry » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:02 pm

Love this draft pick trade chart. Thanks MEuRaH! I have been wanting to make one of these myself but just never gotten around to it.

One thing that I would suggest adding to it is just a simple lookup function. That way you can just type in the picks that you are giving and the ones you are receiving. Makes it much easier than having to look for a number that corresponds with a draft pick every single time! Plus I like to throw my draft picks in there and get a general idea of what I could expect to get for them if I packaged them together.

Here is what my trade calculator part looks like:
Image

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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:43 am

norsberry wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:02 pm Love this draft pick trade chart. Thanks MEuRaH! I have been wanting to make one of these myself but just never gotten around to it.

One thing that I would suggest adding to it is just a simple lookup function. That way you can just type in the picks that you are giving and the ones you are receiving. Makes it much easier than having to look for a number that corresponds with a draft pick every single time! Plus I like to throw my draft picks in there and get a general idea of what I could expect to get for them if I packaged them together.

Here is what my trade calculator part looks like:
Image
ok yeah, I will do that. It's obviously much better, good point.
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2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby apbohannon » Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:09 am

Really good analytic tool; I will definitely be using this as I hold many picks this year.

A question more related to your research of winning dynasty teams over that span, did you find a trend as to what position is of more importance in relation to studs, starters, and role players? Most winning teams had role playing RB's, starter quality QB's, and Stub RB's and TE's? This would be really helpful information, especially when determining the value of a pick. For instance, this year's draft class is supposedly loaded at running back, so if the RB position was vital to championship success, then I'd be much more willing to move up and secure several top draft spots this year to increase my chances of securing one of those guys. OR, if stud RB's aren't as critical for winning a championship then I could sell people on the RB class and move out of the top spots and try to purchase a TE or WR that is established and more crucial for my success.

Just wondering if you saw anything like this in your analysis.
Team 1:
12 Teams, PPR
QB - J. Garoppolo, J. Goff, P. Mahomes
RB - Tevin Coleman, Rashaad Penny, CJ Prosise, Mike Gillislee, Derrius Guice, Tarik Cohen, Joe Mixon
WR - C. Davis , J.Doctson, Ty. Williams, T. Lockett, M. Mitchell, M. Gallup
TE - A. Hooper, OJ Howard, D. Njoku

Team 2:
12 Teams, PPR, SF
QB - A. Rodgers, A. Luck, M. Mariota, K. Lauletta
RB - K. Hunt, A. Kamara, K. Dixon, J. Adams, M. Breida, CJ Prosise, B. Scarbrough
WR - M. Evans, D. Hopkins, A. Robinson, C. Godwin, K. Golladay, M. Valdes-Scantling, J. Ross, A. Darboh, A. Lazard, I. Zamora, L. Carroo
TE - E. Engram, OJ Howard
DT - S. Day, D. Hand, D. Irving, M. Jackson, S. Williams
DE - V. Curry, K. Ealy, J. Jenkins, R. Quinn, J. Sheard, D. Walker
LB - D. Bucannon, P. Smith, D. Trevathan, S. Griffin, R. Ragland, J. Bynes, B. Hager, K. Ishmael, M. Jefferson, M. Judon, B. Marshall, C. Matthews, W. Mercilus, P. Onwuasor
DB - A. Amos, T. Apke, A. Bethea, P. Chung, D. Everett, T. Gipson, M. Hyde, G. Quin, D. Hill

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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby dlf_jules » Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:59 am

Nice work. I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them.

I'd like to link to the spreadsheet on Twitter. Would you like me to include your Twitter handle and/or a link to the forum post?
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby dlf_jules » Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:04 pm

Also, can you link to a list of guys you categorized as "studs," "starters," and "role players"? It would help folks assign relative values to those categories.

(I see the OBJ, Gore, and Wright examples, but a range of players would be more informative.)
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby dlf_jaronf » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:02 am

MEuRaH wrote: Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:58 pm TL/DR at the bottom.

I hate all draft pick charts. Too many people live by them without knowing the math behind creating them. Jimmy Johnson..... who isn't known for being the brightest bulb in the box..... created one that, for some reason, the entire NFL lives by. If you look up success rates vs draft picks, you will eventually find a link based on previous NFL Draft Data that shows JJs chart is actually flawed. High picks are valued too highly, and 2nd rounders aren't valued nearly enough, etc. Too many current draft pick charts are based on that first chart that Jerry Jones made.

This motivated me to make my own. I was a double major in college (statistics & mathematics), and went on to blah blah blah..... I listed my credentials here originally but who the bleep cares. Just know that I take this seriously. I had a ton of time to research the past few weeks, and I failed and gave up about 5 times before finally LOVING what I'm about to present to you.
This is awesome, thanks for sharing it!

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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:07 am

apbohannon wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:09 amA question more related to your research of winning dynasty teams over that span, did you find a trend as to what position is of more importance in relation to studs, starters, and role players? Most winning teams had role playing RB's, starter quality QB's, and Stub RB's and TE's? This would be really helpful information, especially when determining the value of a pick.
Great question, and it was actually the reason I started the research in the first place. I was very shocked to find that it didn't really matter what stud you had or where on your roster he was. QB, RB, WR, TE.... doesn't matter. I tried to find a common player, and again it didn't matter. The exception was when Peyton Manning had that amazing year with the Broncos, and Tom Brady before that with his record season with Moss. Those 2 propelled their teams to the top, but they also didn't do so until they were well into their 30s, they had some amazing targets to work with, and it was only for that 1 season.

Isn't Matt Ryan 30 now?... hmm...

Other than that, nothing to report.
Last edited by MEuRaH on Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:25 am

dlf_jules wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:59 am Nice work. I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them.

I'd like to link to the spreadsheet on Twitter. Would you like me to include your Twitter handle and/or a link to the forum post?
Thank you for the compliment, Jules. I appreciate it.

Twitter: @MikeEHavens You can link here too.

Studs = guys that cost two-or-more 1st rounders to acquire over the course of their careers. Guys like OBJ, AJG, Dez, Julio, AP, Chris Johnson, Ladainian Tomlinson, Peyton Manning, Tony Gonzalez, etc. Pick your poison.

Starters = guys that cost one 1st rounder to acquire, on average, over the course of their careers: Jeremy Maclin, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Pierre Garcon, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, etc.

Role Players = guys that cost a 2nd rounder to acquire, on average, over the course of their careers: Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, James Jones, Malcom Floyd, Rashad Jennings, Pierre Thomas, etc.
dlf_jaronf wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:02 amThis is awesome, thanks for sharing it!
Thank you, Jaron. I appreciate the shout out.
ULTIMATE RB GURUs
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!

REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134

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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby apbohannon » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:58 am

MEuRaH wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:07 am
apbohannon wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:09 amA question more related to your research of winning dynasty teams over that span, did you find a trend as to what position is of more importance in relation to studs, starters, and role players? Most winning teams had role playing RB's, starter quality QB's, and Stub RB's and TE's? This would be really helpful information, especially when determining the value of a pick.
Great question, and it was actually the reason I started the research in the first place. I was very shocked to find that it didn't really matter what stud you had or where on your roster he was. QB, RB, WR, TE.... doesn't matter. I tried to find a common player, and again it didn't matter. The exception was when Peyton Manning had that amazing year with the Broncos, and Tom Brady before that with his record season with Moss. Those 2 propelled their teams to the top, but they also didn't do so until they were well into their 30s, they had some amazing targets to work with, and it was only for that 1 season.

Isn't Matt Ryan 30 now?... hmm...

Other than that, nothing to report.
I appreciate the response. I figured that might be the case, and really might be league specific too; but I held out hope you had unraveled secret to domination.

Thank again for the chart, I'm already finding it helpful.
Team 1:
12 Teams, PPR
QB - J. Garoppolo, J. Goff, P. Mahomes
RB - Tevin Coleman, Rashaad Penny, CJ Prosise, Mike Gillislee, Derrius Guice, Tarik Cohen, Joe Mixon
WR - C. Davis , J.Doctson, Ty. Williams, T. Lockett, M. Mitchell, M. Gallup
TE - A. Hooper, OJ Howard, D. Njoku

Team 2:
12 Teams, PPR, SF
QB - A. Rodgers, A. Luck, M. Mariota, K. Lauletta
RB - K. Hunt, A. Kamara, K. Dixon, J. Adams, M. Breida, CJ Prosise, B. Scarbrough
WR - M. Evans, D. Hopkins, A. Robinson, C. Godwin, K. Golladay, M. Valdes-Scantling, J. Ross, A. Darboh, A. Lazard, I. Zamora, L. Carroo
TE - E. Engram, OJ Howard
DT - S. Day, D. Hand, D. Irving, M. Jackson, S. Williams
DE - V. Curry, K. Ealy, J. Jenkins, R. Quinn, J. Sheard, D. Walker
LB - D. Bucannon, P. Smith, D. Trevathan, S. Griffin, R. Ragland, J. Bynes, B. Hager, K. Ishmael, M. Jefferson, M. Judon, B. Marshall, C. Matthews, W. Mercilus, P. Onwuasor
DB - A. Amos, T. Apke, A. Bethea, P. Chung, D. Everett, T. Gipson, M. Hyde, G. Quin, D. Hill

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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby KnightmareForce » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:36 am

Bruiser wrote: Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:30 pm This chart would be applied in hold forever dynasty leagues, correct? You can't necessarily use it in contract leagues where your draft selections have a (4 year) contract, am I right?
Not sure about all contract and salary leagues but for RealitySportsOnline (RSO) leagues this is the one that I looked at last year in terms of trying to plot how to factor in the $$ attached to rookie contracts. It follows the same concept as this one with a rapidly decreasing value that levels off as it approaches zero. Because of the locked in salaries it hints that early round picks would actually be more valuable than the late ones due to their similar production levels but reduced salary. The example is for a 10 team league with 5 rounds but I have it worked out for up to 14 teams with anything between 2 and 5 rounds.

http://realitysportsonline.com/Content. ... -new-black
The Moneyballers League 0.5PPR 1QB/3RB/4WR/1TE/2FLX/1K/1DST
QB: Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco
RB: Todd Gurley, Giovanni Bernard, Tyler Ervin
WR: Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Rishard Matthews, DeVante Parker, Pharoh Cooper
TE: Rob Gronkowski
Picks: 1.04, 1.05, 2.04, 2.05, 4.07


You Play To Win The Game 0.5PPR 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLX
QB:
RB: Jordan Howard
WR: Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead, Tavon Austin
TE: Julius Thomas, Dwayne Allen
Picks: 1.06, 1.07, 2.11


RSO Writer's League PPR 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLX/1SFLX
QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB: Le'veon Bell, Devonta Freeman
WR: Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry, Leonte Carroo
TE:
Picks: 1.05


Huddle Buddies 0.5PPR 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX
QB:
RB: Zeke Elliot, Giovanni Bernard, Theo Riddick, Jerrick McKinnion
WR: Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, Jordan Matthews, Rishard Matthews, Willie Snead, Pharoh Cooper
TE:
Picks: 2.12, 4.01


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