Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
MEuRaH
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3587
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:58 pm

TL/DR at the bottom.

---> CHART HERE. TO USE IT, YOU NEED TO "MAKE A COPY" OR "DOWNLOAD AS" <---

I hate all draft pick charts. Too many people live by them without knowing the math behind creating them. Jimmy Johnson..... who isn't known for being the brightest bulb in the box..... created one that, for some reason, the entire NFL lives by. If you look up success rates vs draft picks, you will eventually find a link based on previous NFL Draft Data that shows JJs chart is actually flawed. High picks are valued too highly, and 2nd rounders aren't valued nearly enough, etc. Too many current draft pick charts are based on that first chart that Jerry Jones made.

This motivated me to make my own. I was a double major in college (statistics & mathematics), and went on to blah blah blah..... I listed my credentials here originally but who the bleep cares. Just know that I take this seriously. I had a ton of time to research the past few weeks, and I failed and gave up about 5 times before finally LOVING what I'm about to present to you.

Image

================================================
MAKING THE CUSTOMIZABLE CHART
================================================

First, I needed to figure out what made a winning dynasty team. I analyzed all fantasy football playoff teams I could find (which amounted to dozens.... this was tiring) and I found out that the majority of these teams had on average, 2.07 "studs", 2.84 "starters", and then several "role players". It was actually lower than I realized, but one thing was for sure: You had to have a STUD, and most likely you had to have 2. No studs = no playoffs. For reference: Studs are players who you would give 2 or more 1st rounders for. Starters are worth 1 first. Role Players are worth a 2nd.

Next, I researched every draft pick from 2004-2014 using MFLs own ADP data from actual rookie drafts (I purposely didn't do 2015 & 2016 since those players are still changing in value). I then determined which of those players, on average, evolved to become studs (OBJ, Chris Johnson, AP, etc), starters (Frank Gore, Jon Stewart, Emmanuel Sanders, etc), or role players (Vernon Davis, Kendall Wright, etc). Anyone less than a "Roll Player" status was ignored, as they had little-to-no value in the long run. I also had to research the range of these players to go in the draft. For example, Mike Evans was both a 1.01 & 1.02 pick, so that was his range. Carlos Hyde was a 1.03 to 1.07 player, so that was his range, etc. Standard deviation was played with but ultimately dropped, since nearly every player in the middle of the 1st round had a SD of ~1 slot.

The result of where studs can be found in the draft was a little surprising. For example, there was barely any difference in success rate from the 1.01 to 1.03 selections. Success rate for these picks resulted in the same ~42% "Stud" rate. The 1.04-1.06 selections dropped to ~21% Stud Rate. The fail rate, which is where you do not draft one of the 3 kinds of players mentioned above, went from a 50% average in round 1, to an 80% in round 2, 84% in round 3, and a 94% fail rate in round 4. Talent dropped significantly from the top 3 picks to just the 2nd round (as it should, btw). It should look like a y=1/x line (where x>0) in order for the research to be considered valid, and when that happened, I figured I was onto something. All 4th round picks were shots in the dark. The success rate of the 4.01 pick (or any 4th rounder, for that matter) was not statistically significant over the 4.12 pick, so all 4th round picks were given the same value in my chart.

The next thing I had to do........ and this is where you come in....... is give the 3 types of players a numerical value. It all starts with role players and works up. I gave all role players a value of "1". Then, I had to determine how many role players it would take to equal a starter, assuming trade value. Given feedback on these forums, I assumed 3 role players = 1 starter. Last, I deemed Studs to have slightly greater value than 2 Starters, and since Starters were 3 points a piece, I made Studs = 7 points. The chart I made gives you the power to adjust your personal rankings, and therefore your own draft pick chart.

I then needed to find the expected value of each draft pick. For example, the 1.01 pick yielded a Stud rate of ~41%, a Starter rate of ~20%, and a Role Player rate ~5%. 41% of 7 plus 20% of 3 plus 5% of 1 = Your Expected Value for this draft pick. Since the numbers got small, I multiplied each one by 1,000 to give each draft pick what I consider to be a very accurate measure of value, using expected value based on previous draft data, which I think is the best predictor of future results.

The reason why I like this chart is simple: It follows the exponential decay associated with player value, and gives each user a personalized value based on their perception of player value. It's not a "one-size-fits-all" model. If you disagree with my assessment on player value, that's fine. You can make your own!

To use or play with it, just hit the link below. If you have a google account, go to "File - Make A Copy". If you don't have a Google Account, just go to "Download As..." and save it on your hard drive. I wrote steps on how to use the chart in the chart itself.


TL/DR: I researched and made what I consider (opinion) to be the most-accurate draft pick chart you will find, since it's based on outcomes of 10 years worth of drafts, merged with the success rates of fantasy football playoff teams:

---> CHART HERE. TO USE IT, YOU NEED TO "MAKE A COPY" OR "DOWNLOAD AS" <---

Open to comments, questions, or suggestions.

Skeptical? You should try it out on older drafts. 2015s and beyond. I just did on 2014 & 2013s. Look at the transaction history and compare that to how the draft shakes out. On my end, it was flawless. I didn't find one trade that didn't rule in favor of the winning side.


EDIT: Updated (4/9/17 - 4:36 PM)
---- I forgot to add in the variance formula. This gives slightly more value to the picks at the beginning of rounds 2, 3, and 4.

EDIT: Updated with several add-ons (4/10/17 - 6:52 PM)
--- Trade Calculator
--- Player Value Percentage Chart
--- Updated Rankings (Doesn't Change The Value Of Ratio Of Picks In The 1st Round, But It Does For The Rest)

EDIT: Updated (2/10/18)
--- 2015 Draft Stats Added / Draft Picks Adjusted
Last edited by MEuRaH on Sat May 19, 2018 2:34 pm, edited 8 times in total.
Dynasty96 - 96 Teams w/ 95 Trade Partners. Do You Like Trading? JOIN THIS LEAGUE HERE.

Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

User avatar
Pac_Eddy
Player of the Year
Player of the Year
Posts: 2388
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 7:12 pm

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:13 pm

Very nice. I think the values you used are dead on.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

User avatar
bruiser
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3134
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:37 am

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby bruiser » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:30 pm

This chart would be applied in hold forever dynasty leagues, correct? You can't necessarily use it in contract leagues where your draft selections have a (4 year) contract, am I right?
Standard League Player Values

User avatar
MEuRaH
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3587
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:36 pm

Bruiser wrote:
Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:30 pm
This chart would be applied in hold forever dynasty leagues, correct? You can't necessarily use it in contract leagues where your draft selections have a (4 year) contract, am I right?
Funny you should ask, I was just testing it out on regular/keeper leagues for which it is tailored. It works fine for those leagues.

On contract or salary leagues....... I don't know. I think that would require a whole new set of data. For leagues that draft rookies then sign them to 4-5 year contracts... oh man. Again, I have no idea. I'd have to guess at this point and I don't feel comfortable doing that. For contract leagues with rookie/vet redrafts, again I would have to research it.
Dynasty96 - 96 Teams w/ 95 Trade Partners. Do You Like Trading? JOIN THIS LEAGUE HERE.

Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

onetwothree
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:49 am

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby onetwothree » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:49 pm

I thought Jimmy Johnson made the draft value chart?

User avatar
georgetown
Starter
Starter
Posts: 662
Joined: Sun May 20, 2012 5:47 pm

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby georgetown » Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:37 pm

Did you look into anything that gave values to future picks?
Last edited by georgetown on Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
MEuRaH
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3587
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:35 am

georgetown wrote:
Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:37 pm
Did you look into anything that gave values to future picks?
Great question. I did look at it but I had no idea where to begin. The best I can do is pretend that ANY future 1st or 2nd or 3rd, etc, is equal to the last pick in that round. For example, a future 1st in a league with 14 teams should be assumed to equal that of a 1.14 pick.

Some people would say that it depends on the team, and I agree to a point, but just to be safe I would assume its value to be that of the last pick in a round.
Dynasty96 - 96 Teams w/ 95 Trade Partners. Do You Like Trading? JOIN THIS LEAGUE HERE.

Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

User avatar
Valhalla
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3346
Joined: Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:26 pm

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby Valhalla » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:27 am

onetwothree wrote:
Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:49 pm
I thought Jimmy Johnson made the draft value chart?
I'm pretty sure he did.
JJ of the Cowboys, I guess is where the confusion came in

User avatar
Valhalla
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3346
Joined: Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:26 pm

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby Valhalla » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:31 am

It couldn't work exactly the same for contract leagues, for a couple reasons. They aren't always with your team long enough to become a stud, and the value of picks is somewhat weighted against their contract price.

User avatar
clarion contrarion
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4734
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2012 4:11 am

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby clarion contrarion » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:56 am

this chart suggests that I should accept a trade in my inbox where I give the 4:1 and receive the 4:12 back , I guess I should hit accept
.....this has been a public service announcement from forum superstar clarion contrarion



QB luck wentz foles dobbs
WR ant brown robinson evans watkins c davis amendola
RB l. bell mccoy howard mixon duke johnson b hill grant martin
TE eifert howard shaheen kroft G celek
K tucker DEF pittsburgh jacksonville
2012 , 2014 2015 2016 2017 ACDL Champion 4 IN A ROW 5 in 6 years now that is dynasty!
2013 ACDL runner up
2013 2014 & 2017 WORILDS OF HURT CHAMPION
2010 2014 & 2015 7 Rings for Steeltown CHAMPION 2011 & 2013 7 rings runner up
2018 startup - Dynasty Civil War- commish !- post combine draft
(tip of the cap to mark in michigan for that idea)
- half the league DLF members - draft will be posted to this site.
there is no after football
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.
— Leonardo da Vinci

User avatar
MEuRaH
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3587
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:43 am

Valhalla wrote:
Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:27 am
onetwothree wrote:
Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:49 pm
I thought Jimmy Johnson made the draft value chart?
I'm pretty sure he did.
JJ of the Cowboys, I guess is where the confusion came in
Yup. I incorrectly remember Jerry Jones for some reason, and I never bothered to look it up.
clarion contrarion wrote:
Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:56 am
this chart suggests that I should accept a trade in my inbox where I give the 4:1 and receive the 4:12 back , I guess I should hit accept
Hold on, Cowboy! Make sure to change the values around to your specifications to make sure that's the best deal. You don't want to act too quickly.
Dynasty96 - 96 Teams w/ 95 Trade Partners. Do You Like Trading? JOIN THIS LEAGUE HERE.

Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

User avatar
kamihamster
Starter
Starter
Posts: 601
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:28 am

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby kamihamster » Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:45 am

In your analysis of each draft class, did you find any stand out classes? The '14 draft is talked about as one of the best ever, but did your analysis show that statistically? If so, how much better? Would you be able to adapt your chart to take into account bad, average, and good rookie crops?
NTL (est 2016):
12-team, PPR, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLX
QB: A.Rodgers
RB: A. Kamara, D.Cook, D.Freeman, K.Drake, A.Collins, T.Montgomery, K.Ballage, O.Darkwa, E.McGuire, J.Adams
WR: J.Gordon, O.Beckhamn, C.Davis, C.Kupp, M.Bryant, K.Benjamin, C.Meredith, A.Wilson, D. Chark, Tr.Taylor, J.Moore, Ja.Brown, D.Robinson, T.Austin
TE: J.Cook, R.Seals-Jones, A.Shaheen, M.Andrews
2019 Picks: 2, 3
2020 Picks: 3, 4
2021 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4
Home League (est 2014):
12-team, NPPR-6ptTD, 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,2FLX,1K,1DST,4IDP
QB: M.Mariota, J.Goff, P.Mahomes
RB: A.Kamara, D.Cook, J.Mixon, D.Foreman, J.Hill, M.Breida, M.Davis, J.McKissic, J.Conner, J.McNichols,
WR: J.Gordon, A.Robinson, L.Fitzgerald, J.Smith-Schuster, Jo.Brown, M.Bryant, M.Mitchell, C.Rodgers, Tw.Taylor, L.Treadwell, C.Henderson, J.Reynolds, J.Malone, C.Hansen, D.Robinson
TE: E.Engram
IDP: Z.Brown, M.Barron, E.Kendricks
DST: DET
K:
2018 Picks: 1.09, 2.03, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12
2019 Picks: 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 5
2020 Picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

User avatar
HEADBANGER
Captain
Captain
Posts: 905
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:18 am

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby HEADBANGER » Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:26 am

Thanks man, gonna try to figure this out later (seriously cause I didn't see how to use it properly yet...)

Looks very similar to the value chart posted by DLF in 2014 and 2015. The person that created it said he would post one soon after the draft as each draft class is different so their values would be as well.
FFPC Team 1 Orphan Feb 15' 12th, 2016 11th, 2017 1st
QB Goff
RB Gurley, Howard, Lynch, Gallman
WR Hopkins, Watkins, Davis, Gordon, Martavis, Stills, Woods, Ross
TE Engram, Smith
2018 4.5 2019 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th...


FFPC Team 2 (Start up 2016, choked), 2017 5th
QB Rodgers, Winston
RB Hyde, Thompson, Ivory, Abdullah
WR AJG, DT, Sanu, Zay, Kearse, Snead, Dez
TE Graham
2018 2.8, 3.11, 4.8, 4.11...2019 all picks

User avatar
MEuRaH
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3587
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:43 am

kamihamster wrote:
Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:45 am
(1) In your analysis of each draft class, did you find any stand out classes?

(2) The '14 draft is talked about as one of the best ever, but did your analysis show that statistically? If so, how much better?

(3) Would you be able to adapt your chart to take into account bad, average, and good rookie crops?
Damn, great questions.

If each "stud" is 7 points, "starter" is 3, and "role player" is 1, the median score would be a 33, and that score perfectly divides the upper from the lower classes. On average, each draft class has 2.5 studs, a little over 4 starters, and 6 role players.

(1 & 2) The 2014 class definitely stands out. Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Beckham, and Allen Robinson headline that class. Then you still have Jordan Matthews, KB, Hyde, Freeman, Moncrief, Derek Carr... the list can go on and on. It's a crazy class and it dominates any other class with a whopping score of 71. The next closest is the 2010 class with a 38.

(1) Another class stands out in the wrong way. The 2009 draft class was terrible with a score of 17. That class was HORRID. LeSean McCoy was the lone stud, with Michael Crabtree helping out, and those guys had an ADP of 5 & 6. After that.... not much to see. TY Hilton was the ONLY stud ever drafted, on average, in the 4th round.

(3) This is a tough one. How does one assess the strength of an unknown draft class vs the average? I suppose I could make a "strength" setting that would increase or decrease the likelihood of studs. I guess it would be easy enough to do, and it would be opinion-based on the user's preferences. The current setup is based on the expected value based on 10 years of data, but doesn't take into account the possibility of a strong (2014) or weak (2009) draft class.... and going into those classes, we all knew how strong and weak they were.

Good feedback. This is something I can work on later today.
Dynasty96 - 96 Teams w/ 95 Trade Partners. Do You Like Trading? JOIN THIS LEAGUE HERE.

Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

User avatar
MEuRaH
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3587
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:11 pm

HEADBANGER wrote:
Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:26 am
Thanks man, gonna try to figure this out later (seriously cause I didn't see how to use it properly yet...)

Looks very similar to the value chart posted by DLF in 2014 and 2015. The person that created it said he would post one soon after the draft as each draft class is different so their values would be as well.
I know exactly which one you are talking about. (https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2014/ ... lue-chart/)

I tried to use that one prior, which led me to some terrible trades and set my team back a good year in my old RDFL league. The problem with that chart is that he made his chart values relative to startup prices for every single rookie. Players like TRich would therefore skew the results HEAVILY IN FAVOR of the 1.01 since he was drafted so early in a startup. Basically, his chart is created by using the perceived value of each rookie PRIOR TO BEING DRAFTED! That's a huge mistake imo. It's basically allowing pre-draft hype to dictate the actual value. Doing so makes the 1.01 pick = 1.03, 1.04, and 2.06. Someone trading up to the 1.01 will lose value to the tune of a 1.05 selection (based on my chart). So not only would someone lose the Expected Value of a 1.03 & 1.04 pick, but they would essentially be losing out on expected value equivalent to the tune of a 1.05 as well.

Having the 1.01 gives you a ~70% to improve your team, with ~41% chance of landing a stud. But having those 3 picks gives you a whopping ~96% chance to improve your team, with a crazy ~74% of landing at least 1 stud. HUGE DIFFERENCE, and it can be a nightmare scenario if the new owner of the 1.01 whiffs.

I made my chart relative to expected values of Studs, Starters, and Role Players based on prior drafts. My chart it takes into account the success or fail rate of each pick, which I think is the best predictor of future results. Not every 1.01 selection will be a stud, and I think it's value should reflect that. Same with 1.02, 1.03, and so on.

I also studied statistics in college. My thesis was on poker bluff stats, something which I used to become a pro for a short time, and it's kind of the same thing: You can't predict what your opponent will do NOR what the outcome will eventually be, so the best you can do is use past results as a predictor.

My table gives fair and accurate ratings on each pick based on historical results. The DLF chart gives you inflated values based on rookie perception and draft hype. Both charts can be useful... use the DLF one to inflate high picks in order to bargain with other owners to trade down, use mine for fair/accurate info to trade up.
Dynasty96 - 96 Teams w/ 95 Trade Partners. Do You Like Trading? JOIN THIS LEAGUE HERE.

Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Jason3123, rubber_duck and 7 guests