Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
hockeyBjj
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby hockeyBjj » Fri May 19, 2017 11:18 am

Engineer here. Love, love, love the chart and the math you put behind it. It's the kind of thing I wish I had the time to research past drafts and put scores together. I've done some really big and complex xcel sheets before and actually enjoy it, from things on budgeting to determining best way to allocate video game stats and paying off loans vs investing. I've got a fairly sizable one right now for ranking rookies based off multiple sources and looking at some trends of how successful they've been in the past to give each player a weighted rank from each score.

1 question, I'm surprised by how it says in 4 rounds there will be 2.7 studs drafted, 4.25 starters, and 4.75 role players. I would have expected there to be a bigger gap between studs and starters? If a winning team has 2 studs as you say and a typical QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1flx league that's 2 Studs, 4 starters, and 2 role players (with 2-3 role players on bench). Other non winning teams could have 0-1 stud and then 5-6 starters. Is your line between what makes a starter into a stud perhaps not as High as I'm thinking and it's not just the Mike Evans/OBJ type but really any top 10 in there position consistently over the years that makes them a stud and what I'm thinking of is one higher and superstar level (AP) which would be impossible to predict where said person was drafted beyond he'd have to first be categorized a stud?
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flx, 1D, 1K
2022: 1-8
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Purdy
RB: Bijan, Dobbins, Achane, Charbonnet, Algier, McBride, waiver trash
WR: JSN, QJ, Addison, Dotson, Skyy Moore, Jameson Williams, Hyatt, T Dell, Boutte, Skowronek, Quez Watkins, Greg Dortch, waiver trash
TE: Hockenson, F Monroe, Juwan, Musgrave
D/K: Patriots, Vikings, Saints, Dicker

picks-
2024- 1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5
2025 1,1,1,2,3,4,5

team 2- 12 team SF, .5PPR, .5TE boost, 1QB, 1SF, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
2022: 8-1
Finishes: 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd :wall:
QB: Ljax, GenoD Jones, Minshew, Dobbs
RB: CMC, Stevenson, A Jones, Chubb, A Mattison, D cook, Perine, Mckinnon,
WR:Tyreek, Diggs, C Kupp, D Adams, Keenan Allen, Lockett, Gallup, A Lazard, Hodgins
TE: Kelce, LaPorta, Irv Smith,
No picks until 2026 5th rounder lol

zachbahner
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby zachbahner » Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:46 am

MEuRaH wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:11 pm
HEADBANGER wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:26 am Thanks man, gonna try to figure this out later (seriously cause I didn't see how to use it properly yet...)

Looks very similar to the value chart posted by DLF in 2014 and 2015. The person that created it said he would post one soon after the draft as each draft class is different so their values would be as well.
I know exactly which one you are talking about. (https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2014/ ... lue-chart/)

I tried to use that one prior, which led me to some terrible trades and set my team back a good year in my old RDFL league. The problem with that chart is that he made his chart values relative to startup prices for every single rookie. Players like TRich would therefore skew the results HEAVILY IN FAVOR of the 1.01 since he was drafted so early in a startup. Basically, his chart is created by using the perceived value of each rookie PRIOR TO BEING DRAFTED! That's a huge mistake imo. It's basically allowing pre-draft hype to dictate the actual value. Doing so makes the 1.01 pick = 1.03, 1.04, and 2.06. Someone trading up to the 1.01 will lose value to the tune of a 1.05 selection (based on my chart). So not only would someone lose the Expected Value of a 1.03 & 1.04 pick, but they would essentially be losing out on expected value equivalent to the tune of a 1.05 as well.

Having the 1.01 gives you a ~70% to improve your team, with ~41% chance of landing a stud. But having those 3 picks gives you a whopping ~96% chance to improve your team, with a crazy ~74% of landing at least 1 stud. HUGE DIFFERENCE, and it can be a nightmare scenario if the new owner of the 1.01 whiffs.

I made my chart relative to expected values of Studs, Starters, and Role Players based on prior drafts. My chart it takes into account the success or fail rate of each pick, which I think is the best predictor of future results. Not every 1.01 selection will be a stud, and I think it's value should reflect that. Same with 1.02, 1.03, and so on.

I also studied statistics in college. My thesis was on poker bluff stats, something which I used to become a pro for a short time, and it's kind of the same thing: You can't predict what your opponent will do NOR what the outcome will eventually be, so the best you can do is use past results as a predictor.

My table gives fair and accurate ratings on each pick based on historical results. The DLF chart gives you inflated values based on rookie perception and draft hype. Both charts can be useful... use the DLF one to inflate high picks in order to bargain with other owners to trade down, use mine for fair/accurate info to trade up.
Excellent work on this! I just stumbled upon this while working on the 2017 updated version and wanted to give you a few thoughts.

The first thing is that you are absolutely 100% right about Trent Richardson skewing values greatly, so he's been left out since the beginning due to inflating the value of the first pick. Keeping him in would be accepting a major outlier and, frankly, makes my chart completely useless.

I wouldn't exactly call making my chart based on market value a mistake. That's what it's supposed to be: a representation of the market value of rookie picks. I've long said that rookie picks are largely a fool's game and their values are completely inflated in comparison to veteran players. The drafts I've used in creating my chart are from all parts of the off-season, with about a 50/50 split on pre-draft and post draft. It might be surprising to learn that rookie values actually get INFLATED post draft, so the drafts from prior to the NFL Draft actually devalue rookies based on how the market changes.

Our charts show two separate things: yours is results driven; mine is based on where rookies historically go in drafts. Both are useful when used correctly. It is absolutely much smarter to give yourself a few extra dart throws by trading down from 1.01, but that's not how the perceived value is in the dynasty community. Rookie pushers have inflated the value of the top picks to ridiculous ends. My chart isn't based on rookie perception and draft hype, it's based on where rookies actually have gone in startups. I think your chart is an excellent study on the return on investment for each pick, but it doesn't reflect the terribly too high value that rookie picks have in the dynasty community.

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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby ColtsRocker1 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:12 pm

Looks good.

If you have time, try to make one for a 32 team league lol.

5 rounds of 32 picks
Team 1, 32 team, 123m salary, IDP:
QB - Brissett, Tua, Tyrod
RB - Mostert
WR - T. Williams, Pascal, Higgins, AB, Djax
TE - Njoku, Thomas
TMPK - Washington
DT - Vea, DJ Jones
DE - Graham, Young, Ogbah
LB - R. Evans, McMillan, Trevathan
CB - Breeland, Butler, J. Jones
S - McLeod

Team 2, 32 team, 123m salary, IDP:
QB - Mahomes
RB - Barkley, J. Robinson
WR - Jeffery, Juju, R. Anderson
TE - Kelce, J. Smith
TMPK - Pittsburgh
DT - Godchaux, DJ Jones, Vea
DE - Vernon, Brockers, Okafor
LB - Collins, Mosley, R. Smith
CB - Peters, Bradberry, Beal
S - Byard, Reid, Minkah

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Da Punkster
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby Da Punkster » Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:40 pm

Great post
Select 23.....QB,2 RB,2WR,1TE 1FLEX(RB,WR,TE) 1 K AND 1 DEF. 6 PTS FOR A TD .....

QB- L.Jackson, S.Darnold
RB - J.Dobbs, J.Conner,R.Jones,Da!Johnson, M.Brown,Z.Moss
WR-Diggs, AROB, R.Anderson,N.Harry,M.Brown,C.Sutton,Aiyuk,Shenault,Isabella
TE-H.Henry Njoku,Akins

THEE LEAGUE
Qb-D.Watson,C.Cousins
Rb- J.Taylor, I.Smith Crowell, ,Ajaji
Wr- AROB ,D.Lamb, T.Higgins,J.Jeudy,Kirk,
TE-GRONK,


Rumbler 18 Dynasty PPR
QB-M.Stafford, Mahomes, J.Hort
RB-M. Ingram ,, McGuire,R.Jones,Gallman
WR-HOPKINS,AROB ,DIGGS,MONCREIF,M.Williams
TE-Gesecki,Hockenson

Select 13 league-(13 KEEPERS)
PPR - start -1QB,2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 FLEX(RB,WR OR TE) 1 Kicker 1 def
QB- M Ryan, Newton
RB -J.Taylor,D.JOHNSON,A.Jones ,
WR- OBJ ,Hopkins, M.ThomasJ Gordon,Anderson,
TE- GRONK,G.Olsen

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Fantasy>>>Reality
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby Fantasy>>>Reality » Sat May 19, 2018 6:36 am

Very cool. Thanks
25 Man Roster
12 team Superflex
.5ppr
Start 1QB, 1SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1Flex, 1TE
QB: Murray, Burrow, Cousins, Willis
RB: Najee, Gibson, Ken Walker, Miles Sanders, Darrel Williams
WR: Chase, CeeDee, Godwin, Mooney, Osborne, Eli Moore, Hardman, Ty Johnson
TE: Goedert, Trautman, Conklin, B Jordan
2023-1st x 2
2023- 3rd x 3

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MEuRaH
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Sat May 19, 2018 2:26 pm

I got an influx of emails and messages about this chart and didn't know why. This was an old thread fyi, but I did update the chart for what it's worth. I put in one more draft's worth of picks and adjusted accordingly.
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henry1jg
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby henry1jg » Sat May 19, 2018 4:19 pm

Fantastic work
Barrow Snowmen- 14 team - 0.5 PPR, IDP - Yr 18
Jacksonville Jaguars - 32 team - Real GM - Yr 12
Jimmy Graham Cracker wrote:Don't let your recency bias affect your judgment.

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Triton85
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby Triton85 » Thu May 24, 2018 6:50 am

Looks fantastic, only thing I wish it had was some way to value future picks. Problem is they are such unknowns

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MEuRaH
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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby MEuRaH » Thu May 24, 2018 7:51 am

Triton85 wrote: Thu May 24, 2018 6:50 am Looks fantastic, only thing I wish it had was some way to value future picks. Problem is they are such unknowns
That’s kind of already integrated, but different people have such varying opinions on future picks. To me, a future 1st is worth a 1st, but to others it’s worth a second. So if you’re talking about a future first, maybe guess if it’s an early mid or late, and use the numbers 3, 6, or 9.
ULTIMATE RB GURUs
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!

REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134

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Re: Made For You: Customizable Draft Pick Trade Chart

Postby DonJulio » Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:03 pm

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