I may be cherry picking here, but Michael Thomas and Jordan Howard could be had at around the 1.07/8 and low 2s, respectively, last year. Their value is pretty much through the roof now. Hunter Henry, who some had pegged as a top 5 dynasty TE before this class was anointed, was drafted in the late second and you could probably get a late first for him today, maybe a little higher. Going back another season, David Johnson was drafted in the late second and is now the top talent at 1.01 to some people.onetwothree wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:55 amWhile I agree with your overall point, couldn't you say this about the other players that would be drafted around that spot? What do you need a Kamara or Godwin to be to make them worth that spot? Is the upside of a Howard and his potential to be a TE1 higher than the likelihood that the RB or WR taken at 1.07+ can be more than a RB2/WR2?clarion contrarion wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:16 am My problem with drafting a TE so highly is IF he hits what is his ceiling and what is his future value ? IF everything goes just right and he lands in a good situation with the right qb what is his ceiling ? Is he gronk or jimmy graham ? is he jordan reed or travis kelce ? Well if you draft him that highly he has to be or you left value on the table . All the previously mentioned TE were much later rookie picks , even hunter henry last season was taken in the 20s in the 1st 3 leagues I checked on last year. Last year's class was mediocre to be kind compared to this class .
Once you get past that 1st group of players (Fournette, Cook, Davis, Williams, McCaffrey, Mixon), how much value are you really losing going after Howard? Maybe Ross ahead of him? Things will change once landing spots are determined but Howard seems like one of the safer prospects with a solid floor and a pretty high ceiling. I don't know how many of the other guys in that draft range have similar possible outcomes.
The fact remains that there have only been 2 (and really, 1) TEs that have broken out to be monster talents at their position that had people considering them in the first round of startups or being worth the "3 firsts" litmus that we consider most "studs" to fetch. That happens much more often (yearly) with WR and RB. Guys come out of nowhere in year one and their value skyrockets in year two.
The TEs in this class may be athletic freaks, but they need to be used properly, consistently and benefit from being top red zone options in the passing game on their team (let's face it, a TE that doesn't score TDs is merely meh). OJ could be a tremendous fit in Cleveland, become their main RZ weapon and the next Gronk. I have to think that his abilities won't translate into fantasy production for at least a year or two, but again that ENTIRELY DEPENDS on how good the team around him (and particularly, QB) is. The best bet for immediate production is grabbing a guy drafted by a great team who finds himself at the top of the depth chart, not the guy with the super high draft pedigree who's mired on a terrible team with minimal red zone targets.
