Who will manipulate their draft stock this year?

[jaykay22]

I'm not sure if Dalvin Cook specifically or who else may have taken their foot off the gas a bit at the combine, but I'm sure it does actually happen to some extent. Remember KB saying this?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... yard-dash/

(As a KB owner I don't believe he would have actually ran a 4.41, but I can see KB being the type to take it easy at the combine)

[ZPalmtree]

If I read this question correctly, I would have to say I'm not sure, because I don't know any player's preferred landing spot. Besides when Myles Garrett said he wanted the Cowboys to trade for the 1.01 lol. More like players just don't want to go to 3/4 teams. A la Cle, Chi, SF, maybe Jax? Just a few organizations that don't have the best rep ATM, the Skins might be added to the list with all the stuff going on in the front office. I know this analogy isn't cut and dry, but I wouldn't want to work for a company that from the top down didn't have a clue how to succeed in their specific field.

[bruiser]

The Browns are gaining credibility and don't really seem that dysfunctional with Hue Jackson at the helm. I also think that Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone give Jax plenty of fresh credibility to spend. Jax has been a pretty desirable spot for a little while now (see Myles Jack last year).

Davin Cook is a very curious case. Did he take his foot off the gas?

Hey, on a related note: Does anyone remember the sour face that Todd Gurley made when he was announced as the Rams pick in 2015? They were obviously on his worst-case scenario list. How much money will that cost him if his rookie deal expires and his production is still meh?

[JJDubya]

Bruiser has a couple of good points. State income taxes vary wildly from state to state, with FLA and TX asking for $nil and California residents required to pony up around 13% (and everyone else falling in between). Players pay state income tax based on the state they play the game in, so 8/16 games. Let's use the two extremes here: Rams vs. Jags. Both are crappy teams and organizations lately, but the Jags have an immense advantage in luring FAs. Let's say player x's salary is $10m per season and he signs in Cali. 6.5% of that amount is subject to state tax based on 8/16 games being played there, which in a single season, is equal to $650k. That's not chump change, and not something that signing in Jacksonville subjects players to. Think that didn't factor into Calais's decision making when he could have opted to play for the best defense in the league? I'm not privy to the terms of the contract, so there could be more to him as the example, but it matters.

I read somewhere that the salary cap should be state-adjusted to try and remove these biases. Nothing you can do about weather or having to live in Buffalo, but making for an even playing field from a tax-perspective seems to make sense to me. Must be something in the way of making that happen at an organization level, but I'm definitely surprised you don't hear more about this each time FA rolls around.

As for rookies, I'm sure they have their preferred (and conversely, loathed) destinations based on tax, scheme, team and depth charts, but I don't know how much they can do aside from tanking their individual interviews with the teams they don't want to get drafted to. It's ultimately a slippery slope to do that though, and as an agent I'd definitely advise against it. Although I'm sure a lot of misinformation is shared between scouting departments and team personnel about the players, I don't think there are many rookies in a given draft that will have the balls to sabotage getting drafted by one team, in the hopes that the more preferable landing spot behind them drafts them instead.

[AZK]

Players pay state income tax based on the state they play the game in, so 8/16 games.

Where did you find that? I had no idea this happened, I figured players salaries were based on the organizations home state.

[OhCruelestRanter]

The idea that rookies tank their draft position by "taking their foot off the gas" is only slightly more plausible than the idea that we never landed on the moon or that we're being poisoned by chemtrails.

There is no evidence that this happens, unless you count Kelvin Benjamin lying to explain his slow 40 time.

This is not to say that players don't avoid specific teams. It's one thing to say Dalvin Cook is avoiding, say, Cleveland by not interviewing there and by not allowing them to look into his medical info. It's another to say that he deliberately tanked his entire draft stock and cost himself millions of dollars by deliberately running a slower 40 yard dash because he doesn't want to go to Cleveland. That's a terrible conspiracy theory, nothing more.

[clarion contrarion]

With few exceptions these kids do not care where they go I think , so many of us look through a longer lense of history while the kids by virtue of their age and limited time they actually spend watching games . Like most premium athletes they get to be NFL caliber by doing rather than watching mostly. While far from pro caliber in any sport i would watch for a bit and then get my buddies together to play all day on sunday afternoon .
For rbs they know adrian peterson jamaal charles & beast mode , guys like emmitt smith jim brown and walter payton are mostly names in a book or football highlights from the civil war era. Kids have very little perspective on history mostly they think the pats have always been the gold standard or the seahawks when those of us that have watched the league for a longer period of time know how mostly ordinary those franchises were prior to the current regimes .They( the current crop) just wish to play in the league and fulfill a life long or decade long dream all the rest is just silly fanboy rambling save a case or two where an agent gets in his clients head and says we can skip this interview or that but that is a 1% deal not some kind of widespread practice.

[ninotoreS]

I know of situations where top picks manipulated a micro-slide down just a few spots, but nothing drastic. The notion of a guy deliberately tanking his draft stock so he can slide drastically and be in play for virtually any team is a little bit mind blowing.

It's a fascinating idea, but I have to rate it highly unlikely. While we greatly worry about team destination with our skewed fake football perspective, in the real NFL draft a slide from Day 1 to Day 2 results in millions of dollars lost for the rookie. 99 times in 100, from the young man's perspective those extra millions put a shine on any team willing to take him high.

[clarion contrarion]

exactly ^ in a league where more people get 1 contract than 2 even being reckless enough to attempt to tank their stock would make me not want them in the first place. In a copycat league when teams that need rb help in the worst way start passing then others may take heed and do the same . Ask jimmy clauson an example off the top of my head , kiper was apoplectic that teams passed but how did that turn out? So the eagles colts and buccos pass perhaps a playoff team says yeah the value is too good or perhaps the better managed teams think hell even the browns and buccos passed on this guy perhaps we will take that stud corner and just draft our rb in the 2nd or 3rd. The risk is too great in terms of the loss of guaranteed $ and opportunity to dance on that razor's edge.
Far more likely players just test a lower level than we anticipate based on watching their game tape. No one was more stoked when jarvis jones dropped from originally 1:1 possibility to the steelers at 15 he has been very meh and now will likely play for someone else and I won't even miss him, as he just didn't play like the 15th pick , he resume' was awesome until he tested and his career thus far looks much like his testing rather than his tape and he just isn't explosive enough in the NFL to do the things he did at UGA. Cooks may be the same ,his tape is nice ,very nice in many instances but if his career is just OK it shouldn't shock anyone.

[onetwothree]

I don't think players tank a workout as much as maybe they just weren't as prepared for it as they thought they would be. It's the offseason. It's winter. Guys pack on a few pounds. They figure they could just make it up during their pro days in a more familiar setting.

If you get reports of players denying interviews or workouts for teams (or very lame excuses why they didn't go meet with a team) then that's your red flag that they want to avoid certain spots.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I know of situations where top picks manipulated a micro-slide down just a few spots, but nothing drastic. The notion of a guy deliberately tanking his draft stock so he can slide drastically and be in play for virtually any team is a little bit mind blowing.

It's a fascinating idea, but I have to rate it highly unlikely. While we greatly worry about team destination with our skewed fake football perspective, in the real NFL draft a slide from Day 1 to Day 2 results in millions of dollars lost for the rookie. 99 times in 100, from the young man's perspective those extra millions put a shine on any team willing to take him high.

Agree!

Somebody brought up Gurley's face going to St. Louis. While I've been to St. Louis and it's above only Cleveland on my list of favorite US cities (and that's debatable), when they snagged him at 10 it changed his 5th year option from the average of players 3-25 at his position to the average of the top 10.

[bruiser]

So, do you still think this is crazy, ranter? Or have you educated yourself on the economics of the NFL CBA rookie wage scale and 5th year team options?

With few exceptions these kids do not care where they go I think

Clarion, this is crazy talk. If there is one first-round talent that doesn't care, I'll guarantee you his agent cares. This league's marketshare is expanding at a ridiculous rate. There is too much money for any one to not care.

I'm beginning to see more econ analysts are arguing my very point that 2nd rounders make more money sooner. Go.

[Kramer]

Is there a chance that Cook purposefully tanked the combine in order to manipulate his draft stock? His tape and combine results don't add up.

[bruiser]

If you are a 2nd round player, your rookie deal is four years. However, you may begin negotiations and work out a new (BIG) contract after three years of service. Some teams do this to prevent their star player from hitting the open market after four years.

Hoewever, if you are selected in the first round your team has the luxury of a 5th year option, so there is no urgency to offer a new (BIG) contract until after the 5th year. That's a helluva risk for a talented young player to take. After just four years, the first-round player has made less than the second-rounder AND will play on a 5th year team option with nothing guaranteed forward.

If you think the number of players that are aware of this is small, I would say that the opposite is true. If player agents are paid on commission, then you can be sure they are angling for their player to make as much as possible. They know.

[JJDubya]

Bruiser, take a look at this: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/ty ... raft-2016/

Look at the % of a contract that's guaranteed. It drops drastically in the second round from the first. There are some guys with injury histories that had to take less guaranteed $, but if you're a run of the mill first rounder, most, if not all, of your contract is guaranteed, whereas that's not the case for a second rounder. Their contracts max out at 65% guaranteed and drop to 55% in around 5 picks. I can't believe for a moment that any rookie would be thinking in terms of 5 years down the road when they KNOW how hard it is to earn a second contract and how easy it is to get hurt and/or replaced within 4 years. That's an eternity in football terms.

I'd love to see the number of 1st round picks that either don't earn second contracts or earn less than their first contract (as a whole). If I had to guess it would be fairly high...high enough for agents to think that they need to cash in while they can.

Back in the day I knew a basketball superstar's agent, who negotiated the player's first non-rookie contract and opted not to take a commission as a gesture of good faith and instead opted to take a % of the player's endorsement earnings. The agent was replaced within a month. High and dry. Eventually ended up leaving the business. Point is, agents are (or should be) smart enough to cash in whenever they can. If they gamble for something long-term in a sport that's anything but, then they should opt for a new line of work.