Brandin Cooks - What's Not To Love?

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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby clarion contrarion » Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:52 pm

Coogan Football wrote: Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:48 am Cooks > OBJ
Cooks > Julio
Cooks > AB

reminds me of a buddy that bitched non stop about his ex girlfriend who left for someone else
I asked only one ?


so you love her even more now that she is gone right ?
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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby ericanadian » Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:31 pm

James McGhee wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:23 pm A frequent poster here in the forums has recently stated that 1) Brady can't throw deep anymore, and 2) fanboys should not start new threads with "useless hot takes."

Thus, I have bumped this thread to question the notion that Brady can't throw deep anymore and thus Cooks' upside in 2017 is limited and he is likely going to be a bust.

I do however have some facts.

Tom Brady threw the second most "deep" passes for touchdowns (15+ yards as defined by the NFL) in 2017. (Tied for second with 12. Big Ben led the league with 15.)

Tom Brady has the second highest passer rating on "deep" passes - 127.1 - behind Dak Prescott of all people.

His favorite deep target, Chris Hogan, finished second in the regular season for yards per catch.

Now, I'm not saying that Cooks is going to turn in a fantasy MVP performance in NE in 2017 but thinking he is going to be a bust because Tom Brady can't throw deep anymore doesn't seem to be supported by what we saw in '16. Obviously, he could fall of a cliff but watching him play just a few months ago in February doesn't lend itself to that happening in this season upcoming.
First, it appears you're looking at touchdown passes of 15+ yards rather than touchdown passes with 15+ depth of target. Brady throwing to three yards behind the line of scrimmage to James White, who then runs 22 yards for the touchdown is meaningless to whether or not Brady still has a good deep ball. (that is an actual TD included in your data)

It's worth pointing out that of those twelve TDs, only three had less than five yards of YAC, and only four had less than 10, so Brady's exceptional TD numbers were largely powered by broken plays (you don't tend to get a lot of YAC on plays with solid coverage) and exceptional plays by WRs. TDs play a huge role in passer rating, so these twelve TDs likely explain Brady's exceptional standing in your second stat.

Now Brady is reasonably efficient downfield, largely because he spreads the ball all over the field and to many different receivers. It keeps defenses off balance and opens things up deep. He doesn't go deep an exceptional amount (his aDoT is something like 7.8 yards) and he doesn't actually complete deep balls (personally, I look at 20+ yard DoT) at a rate all that much higher than league average, but he does tend to make those throws to guys with space to play with. That's a skill that Cooks can work with.
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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby James McGhee » Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:32 pm

ericanadian wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:31 pm
James McGhee wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:23 pm A frequent poster here in the forums has recently stated that 1) Brady can't throw deep anymore, and 2) fanboys should not start new threads with "useless hot takes."

Thus, I have bumped this thread to question the notion that Brady can't throw deep anymore and thus Cooks' upside in 2017 is limited and he is likely going to be a bust.

I do however have some facts.

Tom Brady threw the second most "deep" passes for touchdowns (15+ yards as defined by the NFL) in 2017. (Tied for second with 12. Big Ben led the league with 15.)

Tom Brady has the second highest passer rating on "deep" passes - 127.1 - behind Dak Prescott of all people.

His favorite deep target, Chris Hogan, finished second in the regular season for yards per catch.

Now, I'm not saying that Cooks is going to turn in a fantasy MVP performance in NE in 2017 but thinking he is going to be a bust because Tom Brady can't throw deep anymore doesn't seem to be supported by what we saw in '16. Obviously, he could fall of a cliff but watching him play just a few months ago in February doesn't lend itself to that happening in this season upcoming.
First, it appears you're looking at touchdown passes of 15+ yards rather than touchdown passes with 15+ depth of target. Brady throwing to three yards behind the line of scrimmage to James White, who then runs 22 yards for the touchdown is meaningless to whether or not Brady still has a good deep ball. (that is an actual TD included in your data)

It's worth pointing out that of those twelve TDs, only three had less than five yards of YAC, and only four had less than 10, so Brady's exceptional TD numbers were largely powered by broken plays (you don't tend to get a lot of YAC on plays with solid coverage) and exceptional plays by WRs. TDs play a huge role in passer rating, so these twelve TDs likely explain Brady's exceptional standing in your second stat.

Now Brady is reasonably efficient downfield, largely because he spreads the ball all over the field and to many different receivers. It keeps defenses off balance and opens things up deep. He doesn't go deep an exceptional amount (his aDoT is something like 7.8 yards) and he doesn't actually complete deep balls (personally, I look at 20+ yard DoT) at a rate all that much higher than league average, but he does tend to make those throws to guys with space to play with. That's a skill that Cooks can work with.
Great stuff. Where does one acquire such data as average depth of target?
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Rodgers, Goff, Carr
Bell, J. Stewart, Foreman, Perine
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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:58 pm

James McGhee wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:32 pm Great stuff. Where does one acquire such data as average depth of target?
It's a PFF stat, but I'm not sure if you have to pay to access the data or not.
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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby ericanadian » Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:45 pm

Shoreline Steamers wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:58 pm
James McGhee wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:32 pm Great stuff. Where does one acquire such data as average depth of target?
It's a PFF stat, but I'm not sure if you have to pay to access the data or not.
They produce a lot of reports with the information included, but I believe if you want more flexibility you need to pay. Personally, I compiled the play by play data from nflgsis into a spreadsheet and then used a bunch of formulas to convert it into usable information. It took a long time to set up the converter, but cutting & pasting the weekly data is mindless enough that I can watch tv (did most of it during the nhl playoffs) while doing it. I now have 2015 & 2016 data with plans to grab 2013 & 2014.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby James McGhee » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:04 pm

ericanadian wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:45 pm
Shoreline Steamers wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:58 pm
James McGhee wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:32 pm Great stuff. Where does one acquire such data as average depth of target?
It's a PFF stat, but I'm not sure if you have to pay to access the data or not.
They produce a lot of reports with the information included, but I believe if you want more flexibility you need to pay. Personally, I compiled the play by play data from nflgsis into a spreadsheet and then used a bunch of formulas to convert it into usable information. It took a long time to set up the converter, but cutting & pasting the weekly data is mindless enough that I can watch tv (did most of it during the nhl playoffs) while doing it. I now have 2015 & 2016 data with plans to grab 2013 & 2014.
The Canadian QB Report coming soon?!
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Tom Brady, Cam Newton
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Rob Gronkowski
Will Lutz
Minnesota Defense

12 team league; 30-man roster; full PPR
QB/2 RB/2 WR/TE/3 FLX

Rodgers, Goff, Carr
Bell, J. Stewart, Foreman, Perine
Hopkins, K. Allen, Cooks, Hurns, Kupp, Lee, C. Samuel, Patterson, Taywan Taylor
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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby trc » Thu Jun 29, 2017 2:19 pm

ericanadian wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:31 pm
First, it appears you're looking at touchdown passes of 15+ yards rather than touchdown passes with 15+ depth of target. Brady throwing to three yards behind the line of scrimmage to James White, who then runs 22 yards for the touchdown is meaningless to whether or not Brady still has a good deep ball. (that is an actual TD included in your data)

It's worth pointing out that of those twelve TDs, only three had less than five yards of YAC, and only four had less than 10, so Brady's exceptional TD numbers were largely powered by broken plays (you don't tend to get a lot of YAC on plays with solid coverage) and exceptional plays by WRs. TDs play a huge role in passer rating, so these twelve TDs likely explain Brady's exceptional standing in your second stat.

Now Brady is (1) reasonably efficient downfield, largely because he spreads the ball all over the field and to many different receivers. It keeps defenses off balance and opens things up deep. He doesn't go deep an exceptional amount ( (2)his aDoT is something like 7.8 yards) and he doesn't actually complete deep balls (personally, I look at 20+ yard DoT) at a rate all that much higher than league average, but he does tend to make those throws to guys with space to play with. That's a skill that Cooks can work with.
(1) Define reasonably - according to a PFF article, the 2016 season for Brady (including postseason), ranked 2nd best in passer rating in the past decade on balls thrown 20+ yards through the air.

(2) How is he ranked compared to other QBs then? Plus does that aDoT score take into account how NE play (a lot of very short throws as well)?

Bradys attemps of throws 20+ yards is not exceptional - just above average. However Brees is third last in that ranking (again from the same PFF article), this could be an uptick for Cooks as well.

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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby ericanadian » Thu Jun 29, 2017 7:01 pm

trc wrote: Thu Jun 29, 2017 2:19 pm
ericanadian wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:31 pm
First, it appears you're looking at touchdown passes of 15+ yards rather than touchdown passes with 15+ depth of target. Brady throwing to three yards behind the line of scrimmage to James White, who then runs 22 yards for the touchdown is meaningless to whether or not Brady still has a good deep ball. (that is an actual TD included in your data)

It's worth pointing out that of those twelve TDs, only three had less than five yards of YAC, and only four had less than 10, so Brady's exceptional TD numbers were largely powered by broken plays (you don't tend to get a lot of YAC on plays with solid coverage) and exceptional plays by WRs. TDs play a huge role in passer rating, so these twelve TDs likely explain Brady's exceptional standing in your second stat.

Now Brady is (1) reasonably efficient downfield, largely because he spreads the ball all over the field and to many different receivers. It keeps defenses off balance and opens things up deep. He doesn't go deep an exceptional amount ( (2)his aDoT is something like 7.8 yards) and he doesn't actually complete deep balls (personally, I look at 20+ yard DoT) at a rate all that much higher than league average, but he does tend to make those throws to guys with space to play with. That's a skill that Cooks can work with.
(1) Define reasonably - according to a PFF article, the 2016 season for Brady (including postseason), ranked 2nd best in passer rating in the past decade on balls thrown 20+ yards through the air.

(2) How is he ranked compared to other QBs then? Plus does that aDoT score take into account how NE play (a lot of very short throws as well)?

Bradys attemps of throws 20+ yards is not exceptional - just above average. However Brees is third last in that ranking (again from the same PFF article), this could be an uptick for Cooks as well.
We're not talking about the past decade, we're talking about the past year or so. Brady completed 40% of his 20+ DoT throws. Brees hit 44.1% and 44.0% specifically to Cooks. He threw 20+ yards to Cooks 25 times in 2016. Brady's top deep receiver was Edelman at 17 20+ targets (with a gutless completion rate of 23.5%.). Hogan & Gronk tied at number two with nine deep targets a piece. (and awesome rates of 66.7% completion)

I can see an argument for Brady over Brees on deep ball efficiency, but that's only half the equation. Brees throws a lot... last year, Brady was on pace for 550ish attempts? Brees threw 673 times. How Brees performed over the last decade is irrelevant, because he wasn't throwing to Cooks. Cooks had solid efficiency and volume from Brees last year. He might get the efficiency from Brady, but I think the volume is less certain, especially with all the investment at the RB position.

Also, Brees aDoT was something like 7.2, so he certainly wasn't great, but the elite guys are hitting 10ish yards per attempt and include Big Ben, Luck, Winston, etc.
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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Thu Jun 29, 2017 7:59 pm

I don't think he was talking about how Brady performed over the last decade. He was saying Brady's performance last year was 2nd best of any player over the last decade. At least, that is how I understood it.
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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby Valhalla » Thu Jun 29, 2017 10:07 pm

jtd1387 wrote: Thu Jun 29, 2017 7:59 pm I don't think he was talking about how Brady performed over the last decade. He was saying Brady's performance last year was 2nd best of any player over the last decade. At least, that is how I understood it.
That's how I read it

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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby trc » Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:22 am

ericanadian wrote: Thu Jun 29, 2017 7:01 pm
trc wrote: Thu Jun 29, 2017 2:19 pm
ericanadian wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:31 pm
First, it appears you're looking at touchdown passes of 15+ yards rather than touchdown passes with 15+ depth of target. Brady throwing to three yards behind the line of scrimmage to James White, who then runs 22 yards for the touchdown is meaningless to whether or not Brady still has a good deep ball. (that is an actual TD included in your data)

It's worth pointing out that of those twelve TDs, only three had less than five yards of YAC, and only four had less than 10, so Brady's exceptional TD numbers were largely powered by broken plays (you don't tend to get a lot of YAC on plays with solid coverage) and exceptional plays by WRs. TDs play a huge role in passer rating, so these twelve TDs likely explain Brady's exceptional standing in your second stat.

Now Brady is (1) reasonably efficient downfield, largely because he spreads the ball all over the field and to many different receivers. It keeps defenses off balance and opens things up deep. He doesn't go deep an exceptional amount ( (2)his aDoT is something like 7.8 yards) and he doesn't actually complete deep balls (personally, I look at 20+ yard DoT) at a rate all that much higher than league average, but he does tend to make those throws to guys with space to play with. That's a skill that Cooks can work with.
(1) Define reasonably - according to a PFF article, the 2016 season for Brady (including postseason), ranked 2nd best in passer rating in the past decade on balls thrown 20+ yards through the air.

(2) How is he ranked compared to other QBs then? Plus does that aDoT score take into account how NE play (a lot of very short throws as well)?

Bradys attemps of throws 20+ yards is not exceptional - just above average. However Brees is third last in that ranking (again from the same PFF article), this could be an uptick for Cooks as well.
We're not talking about the past decade, we're talking about the past year or so. Brady completed 40% of his 20+ DoT throws. Brees hit 44.1% and 44.0% specifically to Cooks. He threw 20+ yards to Cooks 25 times in 2016. Brady's top deep receiver was Edelman at 17 20+ targets (with a gutless completion rate of 23.5%.). Hogan & Gronk tied at number two with nine deep targets a piece. (and awesome rates of 66.7% completion)

I can see an argument for Brady over Brees on deep ball efficiency, but that's only half the equation. Brees throws a lot... last year, Brady was on pace for 550ish attempts? Brees threw 673 times. How Brees performed over the last decade is irrelevant, because he wasn't throwing to Cooks. Cooks had solid efficiency and volume from Brees last year. He might get the efficiency from Brady, but I think the volume is less certain, especially with all the investment at the RB position.

Also, Brees aDoT was something like 7.2, so he certainly wasn't great, but the elite guys are hitting 10ish yards per attempt and include Big Ben, Luck, Winston, etc.
I am (PFF) only talking about Bradys 2016 season performance and only comparing to Brees' 2016 season.

I just find it strange, that PFF give me different stats/conclusion than you -> They graded his 2016 season at 99.3 - the grade ends at 100. The 99.3 grade ranks as no. 1 all time in PFF history. However you make it seem like it was a pedestrian season...

And his passer rating on deep throws were 122 (again PFF). Doesn't quite fit well with your completion rate of 40 %?

I am not a statistics kind of guy - But what you present here just doesn't seem right compared to everything else I see/read.

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Re: Cooks to NE

Postby ericanadian » Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:57 am

trc wrote: Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:22 am
ericanadian wrote: Thu Jun 29, 2017 7:01 pm
trc wrote: Thu Jun 29, 2017 2:19 pm

(1) Define reasonably - according to a PFF article, the 2016 season for Brady (including postseason), ranked 2nd best in passer rating in the past decade on balls thrown 20+ yards through the air.

(2) How is he ranked compared to other QBs then? Plus does that aDoT score take into account how NE play (a lot of very short throws as well)?

Bradys attemps of throws 20+ yards is not exceptional - just above average. However Brees is third last in that ranking (again from the same PFF article), this could be an uptick for Cooks as well.
We're not talking about the past decade, we're talking about the past year or so. Brady completed 40% of his 20+ DoT throws. Brees hit 44.1% and 44.0% specifically to Cooks. He threw 20+ yards to Cooks 25 times in 2016. Brady's top deep receiver was Edelman at 17 20+ targets (with a gutless completion rate of 23.5%.). Hogan & Gronk tied at number two with nine deep targets a piece. (and awesome rates of 66.7% completion)

I can see an argument for Brady over Brees on deep ball efficiency, but that's only half the equation. Brees throws a lot... last year, Brady was on pace for 550ish attempts? Brees threw 673 times. How Brees performed over the last decade is irrelevant, because he wasn't throwing to Cooks. Cooks had solid efficiency and volume from Brees last year. He might get the efficiency from Brady, but I think the volume is less certain, especially with all the investment at the RB position.

Also, Brees aDoT was something like 7.2, so he certainly wasn't great, but the elite guys are hitting 10ish yards per attempt and include Big Ben, Luck, Winston, etc.
I am (PFF) only talking about Bradys 2016 season performance and only comparing to Brees' 2016 season.

I just find it strange, that PFF give me different stats/conclusion than you -> They graded his 2016 season at 99.3 - the grade ends at 100. The 99.3 grade ranks as no. 1 all time in PFF history. However you make it seem like it was a pedestrian season...

And his passer rating on deep throws were 122 (again PFF). Doesn't quite fit well with your completion rate of 40 %?

I am not a statistics kind of guy - But what you present here just doesn't seem right compared to everything else I see/read.
Passer rating incorporates TDs and Ints. I haven't looked at Brees' TD-Int numbers on 20+ yards, but given that Brady went like 28-2 overall suggests he was pretty outstanding on this end.

Also, I was incorrect on the "not all that much higher than league average". I was looking at the Patriots as a whole when I glanced at that number and the team came in a 34%-35%. 40% is probably in the top five.
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RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
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Is anyone concerned with Brandin Cooks?

Postby freddog97 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:59 am

I was high as ever once Cooks was traded to NE....but i thought Cooks was going to be move involved. I feel like Brady doesn't even look at him at times which is confusing as he has to be one of the best players on the field (gronk/cooks 1a/1b?). He must be doubled? Its even more confusing since the Pats are down multiple receivers... you would think Cooks would see more than 6 targets a game(averaging 6 per game through week 4).

What do you guys think?
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WRs: Lamb, Higgins, Jeudy, Wilson(NYJ), Olave, Flowers, Cooks, Davis, Doubs
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Re: Is anyone concerned with Brandin Cooks?

Postby PingPwng » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:03 am

Bill Belichik willfully goes out of his way to bleep with fantasy football. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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Re: Is anyone concerned with Brandin Cooks?

Postby ninotoreS » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:10 am

Tom just doesn't prefer throwing to black guys. /j
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