Bradford

[Valhalla]

I posted the below text in team advice but I wanted to put it here to see other thoughts on this (it's just going to get buried in team advice). I know there are a lot of Vikings fans on here (because the Vikings are so good) and just want to see what others saw.
I'm not pushing him as a fantasy star. More-so as a solid NFL starter.

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Bradford has actually been really good with the Vikings. I didn't like the trade when it was made, because I was never really a believer. Watching him play for a season, he actually made the most of what he was given. As for him never making the playoffs...it's not like he's been dealt good hands.

In 2010, his rookie year, he threw for 3500 yards at a 60% clip with 18 TD/15 INT rate. He played well enough to be the rookie of the year. Now, any rookie QB that gets the opportunity to start 16 games has a fair shot to be the rookie of the year, so it's not a ringing endorsement, but it's certainly not a bad season.

In 2011, his stats were putrid (only played in 10 games before getting injured), but so was that whole team. They had the most difficult schedule in the league that year, according to football outsiders. They had crap for talent surrounding Bradford, and the line was just bad. There's a reason that both the head coach and the general manager were fired immediately after the season finale, and it wasn't the sophomore QB. They ran that team very poorly. You want the guy to succeed but I just can't fault him for not succeeding in this setting.

2012, Bradford was learning a new playbook, and WHAT A PLAYBOOK IT WAS! He got to head up a Jeff Fisher offense! YAY!! He threw for 3700, 60%, 21 TD, 13 INT. An improvement from his rookie year, but nothing fantastic. Personally, I feel that ANY success for a QB in a Fisher offense is a ringing endorsement of that QB. Yes, McNair was very good in my opinion. His transcendence through the crap system is the reason Fisher lasted so long.

2013, still Fisher...Bradford was passing for ~250 yards, 2 TDs and 0.6 INTs per game, and only lasted 7 games before getting injured. Gee I wonder if the genius offensive scheme with that stellar line that left the QB up for constant pressure with the simplistic, slow developing routes had anything to do with his rap for getting injured...I'd say 2013 is in no way an endorsement of Bradford, but it is also in no way a bad season or a sign of a lack of talent. Just unfortunate circumstances.

2014, entire season lost to a torn ACL. Jeez, Bradford. You've displayed some talent in entirely awful circumstances so far in your career, but wow are you getting injured a lot so far. 3 years of major injuries so far!? Hardly damning to his ability when healthy, but can he ever stay healthy?

2015, he moved to the Eagles and new WRs, coach and playbook. He did have Shurmur for some familiarity. He threw for 3725 yards at 65%, 19 TDs to 14 INTs in 14 games. Not wonderful, but not horrible either for his first year in the system coming off an ACL.

2016, he's traded to the Vikings (the team I love) and I didn't like the trade when it first happened. I was looking for hope, so I looked into his history, and from what I could tell it was neither condemning nor promising. It was glimpses of talent shining through entirely murky situations. He was an unclear answer. It seemed he had talent but it didn't seem unreasonable to just bet on another injury.
As the Vikings QB in 2016, he threw for 3877 yards, 20 TDs, and 5 INTs at a 71.6% clip...for a 99.3 passer rating. This is a solid year, and in case you missed it, this was yet again a putrid situation for Bradford. Bridgewater was the most pressured QB in the league in 2015...And Bradford's line was even worse. They were so riddled with injuries that the 2nd string right tackle was eventually the starting left tackle, and the 3rd string right tackle was also starting. The guards were also hurt. That historically bad offensive line just was pitifully over-matched in every game. Their rushing game combined for a whopping 75 yards per game! 3.2 yards per carry for the team. If you don't know...that's really bad. Good for 32nd in the league in both yards and ypc. Yet Bradford had a pretty damn decent season. If he had started week 1, it would have likely been a 4000 yard season. His contributions to the team were solid, in my eyes. He played better than I ever expected in a situation that was way worse (due mostly to injuries) than I ever expected.

Bradford should be given every shot to be the Vikings future QB. The guy is 29. He may not be a fantasy star, but he should be leading the team. I say all this as a big Teddy Bridgewater believer. I'm just realistically looking at his injury as something that could severely limit him, and even if it doesn't, by the time he gets back the job may be firmly Bradford's.

[Jason3123]

I thought he had a pretty solid 2016 season considering the environment. One of the worst O-Lines in the league. Traded to a new team just weeks before the season. Endured a coaching change. No running game.

It can't get worse than it was in that offense this year so I would only imagine as his surroundings improve so will his play.

[Jfever]

He was surprisingly very good. Like you said in the OP, the line was historically bad. And, historically injured. The 5-0 start was legit. The team was healthy... Then, the bye, then the wheels fell off.... I can't even for the life of me remember an O-line situation that was as poor. The injuries that team went though were mind boggling.

NO significant contribution from their 1st overall pick from 2016 rookie class (L.Treadwell).

AP - for the season, prob played his last game for Vikings
TeddyB. - season, possibly career threatening
M.Kalil - Ugh!
A.Boone - multiple games missed
J.Berger - multiple games missed
S.Diggs - dinged up and missed critical time.
Harrison Smith - multiple games missed
X.Rhodes - multiple games missed
S.Floyd - UGH!!! What a wasted year!
A.Sendejo - multiple games missed
J.Mckinnon
C.Patterson
J.Wright

I mean..... 8-8 was good considering. But to start 5-0 - My head hurts just thinking on it.

I mean looking at the list of injuries to key people at inopportune times for extended periods of time.... Makes me sick, ticked off... and kinda sad.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Should Bradford start over Bridgewater? I'd say so, but there's a decent chance that Bradford gets hurt before Bridgewater is fully healed...

[Friction]

He definitely did better than I thought he would, pre trade and post injuries for sure. I mostly stay away from the Queens for fantasy purposes, as I am never comfortable starting any member of their offense, for the most part. I think he will be the starter next year again. Just does not sound like there is a lot of faith in Teddy's recovery, at least locally here.

[ericanadian]

Bradford is good enough to provide Minnesota a window where they can let Bridgewater recover properly, but I'd still take Bridgewater over him in a heartbeat, Bradford seems to excel in getting people to believe he's better than he is. He can look good in Shurmur's system (rookie year, Philly & Minnesota) because he's solid with underneath throws. Unfortunately, this leads to his team being awful because his unwillingness to go downfield lets the defense stack the box. Now, this could be all on Shurmur, but as a Vikes fan, you've got the package deal, so I'm not sure that it matters.

He looks mediocre in downfield offenses, but can be serviceable. He has the arm strength to throw downfield, but almost needs to be forced to do it. He had okay years under Fisher and Turner in terms of wins, and even allowed for a solid run game under Fisher. His problem is that he doesn't have the toughness to absorb the punishment that comes along with these systems and his downfield accuracy isn't consistent, so while he opens up the defense and forces them to respect the deep ball, he doesn't do all that much with it.

[Valhalla]

Bradford is good enough to provide Minnesota a window where they can let Bridgewater recover properly, but I'd still take Bridgewater over him in a heartbeat, Bradford seems to excel in getting people to believe he's better than he is. He can look good in Shurmur's system (rookie year, Philly & Minnesota) because he's solid with underneath throws. Unfortunately, this leads to his team being awful because his unwillingness to go downfield lets the defense stack the box. Now, this could be all on Shurmur, but as a Vikes fan, you've got the package deal, so I'm not sure that it matters.

He looks mediocre in downfield offenses, but can be serviceable. He has the arm strength to throw downfield, but almost needs to be forced to do it. He had okay years under Fisher and Turner in terms of wins, and even allowed for a solid run game under Fisher. His problem is that he doesn't have the toughness to absorb the punishment that comes along with these systems and his downfield accuracy isn't consistent, so while he opens up the defense and forces them to respect the deep ball, he doesn't do all that much with it.

Everything I underlined could be said of either Bradford or Bridgewater...yet they are all the reasons you prefer Bridgewater in a heartbeat? I'd say they are pretty similar qbs. They both are excellent in the short game, can play a low turnover game, struggle sone with the deep ball (although I saw Bradford do more deep than I have seen of Bridgewater thus far), throw a high completion percentage due largely to the short, safe game, and both have shown they can stand strong in a non-existent pocket and are both willing to take the regular hits while delivering the ball. They are very similar, with Bradford being a little more proven and putting up better stats last year with a worse supporting cast than Bridgewater did the year before.
Are you sure it isn't the age that makes you take Bridgewater in a heartbeat?
I really like Bridgewater. Just look at my post history from a year ago to check on that if you like. I probably had a few long posts about how underrated he was to do what he did behind that joke of a line. Yet Bradford did more with less.

[ericanadian]

Bridgewater had a higher YPA in both of his first two years than Bradford has ever had for a full season. I like Bridgewater's superior mobility. His supporting cast in his rookie year was pretty similar to what Bradford had this year. You can argue the line, but Bridgewater was taking more sacks in his first two years than Bradford took this season. A big part of that was the offensive scheme, but I'm still not sure the line was all that much better before the injuries. I'd also say Diggs is a massive improvement over Jennings. Finally, we've seen a lot less of Bridgewater than we've seen of Bradford. I can see Bridgewater continuing to develop where I think Bradford is what he is at this point.

[Valhalla]

All valid arguments, but they are still very similar. I would love both to average more yards per attempt...but it's hard to use it to argue one over the other using this.
Bridgewater: 7.3 and 7.2 ypa
Bradford: 7.0 and 7.0 ypa

You also point to sacks. Bridgewater was sacked more (slightly, at 2.75 sacks per game vs 2.47) so his line was comparably bad. Maybe, but from my memory of watching, I disagree. It's all based on memory here so my opinion is just an opinion, but I remember Bridgewater quite often hanging onto the ball too long and taking a sack when he could have gotten the ball away, whereas Bradford had an uncanny way of finding guys just before getting hit. Bradford had a (slightly) lower ypa, but maybe that's because he was making his reads more quickly and getting the ball out faster. Bridgewater took a (slightly) higher sack rate in order to throw for a (slightly) higher ypa. Both had jokes for an ol (Bradford's was worse imo) and both were impressive (to me, anyways) in their ability to handle such consistent pressure.
Let's not forget, Bradford had Diggs over Jennings, but Bridgewater had an existing ground game.

[Valhalla]

I do have to concede, though, that Bradford's career ypa is concerning. That pitifully low number is the main reason I didn't like the trade when they acquired him. It got better with the Eagles, and again not so terrible last year. I'd still like higher than 7.0. There were times in 2016 that I wanted to scream watching Bradford check down to the safe, wide open 5 yard option on a 3rd and 12, and I found myself wondering if Bridgewater would have pushed the ball downfield further. That's hard to say.

[slaughterrt]

Bradford was very efficient this year. 71%+ completion with low INT numbers. Sure, he didn't throw for a bazillion TDs, but he looked pretty good out there in my opinion. He played behind a terrible (and injured offensive line) with zero running game (at least partially attributed to the offensive line). The offense was basically one dimensional...and what a vanilla play calling offense it was. If Minnesota can sure up that offensive line in the draft, then maybe they can build on the running game a bit and make defenses guess a little more. Hopefully with a full year under his belt, Bradford will be able to open up the offense a bit and have some ground support to go with that solid defense.

Bradford also played 100% of the offensive snaps in all but two games this year. He played 97% against Dallas and 85% against Chicago (in a 38-10 blowout). Injury was not a problem for him this year.

Behind an improved offensive line, with an improved running game, I would take Bradford over Bridgewater. Behind a piss poor offensive line, with a piss poor running game, I still take Bradford over Bridgewater.

By the way...this does pain me to say as a Vikings fan. I was really excited when they drafted Teddy because finally the team was grooming a QB of the future (who looked pretty good) instead of acquiring a retread. Oh well.

[Factory of Sadness]

Bradford is a fascinating player I think. There's no position like QB where it is so hard to separate talent from scheme, play-calling and surrounding cast. He did a pretty extraordinary job for the Vikings this year. He is a former number one pick, hasn't shown himself to be mentally frail or regressed as a passer in any way- he's just played on shitty offenses. If Bradford was throwing to Julio in a Kyle Shanahan lead O, how much worse than Ryan would he be? If Ryan played for Jeff Fisher, how good would he look?

The lingering worry is YPA and the fact that he hasn't historically thrown TDs. Before Diggs got nicked up and the O-line utterly collapsed though, he was looking dangerous with the deep ball. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it turns out that he is very, very good if ever the Vikes surround him with talent.

He's brave, incredibly accurate and smart. Bellichick could win Superbowls with him. Shanahan or Payton could get 5000 yards out of him. It's the wonderful chicken and egg of QB of course. Is Dak better than Goff? Personally I doubt it. Goff showed a hell of a lot more in College. Rams O-line vs Cowboys O-line? Britt and nothing versus Dez and Beasley? High school level scheme vs intelligently constructed O...

Even in the Steelers/Pats game, as great as Brady is - and I'd never dream of comparing Bradford to Brady- how many tight windows did he have to hit? Two? Most plays had two or three guys wide open because Bellichick/McDaniels designed a brilliant game-plan and Tomlin was undressed on the big stage. Ryan played great, stood in there and made a couple of terrific throws under pressure, but again, scheme and talent gave him a lot of wide-open looks. Bradford has never been given anything to help. A 49er with Shanahan in a year's time, or the replacement for Brees or Brady in two and he'd look incredible.

I'm sure this sounds laughable to many, but I think he has the potential to be a top 5 or 6 QB talent- in a world without Brees, Brady, Rivers etc. Whether we ever see it come to fruition will depend on where he goes next.

[maxhyde]

Bradford's narrative is written and sealed for his career. Fantasy owners hold grudges and I think Bradford burned most one time or another. That said he isn't likely to be winning you any championships either so while I think he had a solid season and has some room for imp[roved #'s I would not expect 4500yds and 30+ TD's out of him anytime soon.
He fought through a ton of adversity this year and was a solid but they fell short and that might be all that is remembered about the 2016 season

[IBall2]

I saw on rotoworld today that Bridgewater is expected to miss the entire 2017 season. I think the Vikings hold onto Bradford and resign him during the offseason to a longer term deal of 3-4 years maybe? Then play the Teddy bridgewater injury by ear.

Is there any way the Vikings can get a compensatory draft pick for the Teddy Bridgewater injury if he never plays again or are they just SOL? Granted compensatory draft picks are based off of what the FA signs for with his new team so it really doesn't make sense now that I think about it...

[Valhalla]

Bumping this thread due to ongoing Bradford discussions in random threads following a locked Bradford thread.

I watched pretty much every game, and he most certainly did not throw the ball down the field as much as most QB's.

...expected from a QB that had much less time than most QBs...

-He was 1st in the league in Comp. %, yet just 16th in passing yards

You are missing a crucial variable here...attempts. He was 18th in attempts, 16th in yards. Nice attempt, though.

-He was 19th in Yards/Attempt; 15th in adjusted Yards/Attempt

So he was putting up a league average yards per attempt with a horrible OL and the #32 ranked (in yards and ypc) rushing game...explain to me how a guy...
A) puts up league high (and record) completion %
B) put up league average yards per attempt in doing so
C) does this with a horrible running game and OL
...and the conclusion is that he under-performed statistically

-He was 29th in the league Yards/Completion, nearly a full 5 yards/completion below Matt Ryan

This is not all that telling of a statistic IMO. A guy can have a stellar yards per completion % but throw a higher % of incompletions and kill drives. Also, comparing him to the league leader/MVP abberation season is fair...
Oh, and nearly a full 5 yards...I checked your math. The difference between league-leader Ryan and Bradford was 3.574 yards, not 5, but ok. Now I'm wondering if his 9.815 yards per completion is really 29th in the league...but I'll trust you on that. I still don't think it's a telling stat for talent, but more telling of scheme.

-He was 2nd to last in the league in % Air Yards (meaning how much of his passing yards were air traveled vs. Yards after Catch) - right behind Alex Smith[/b]

He was in a situation that required a lot of very quick passes, and had WRs effective at making things happen in this type of system. You say you watched him all season, so you know this.
A) Diggs, Patterson and McKinnon will push YAC higher
B) A (forced by line) strategy of quick, short passes will push depth of targets lower
C) Put a low depth of target and high YAC together and you get that %. It's not surprising, and like above, is more indicative of the situation/play style than the talent/ability to throw downfield

If he was throwing deep, it was either very rare or extremely unsuccessful - and the numbers back that up.

Not the above numbers. Not Pro Football Focus, either. According to them, Matt Ryan was the 2nd-most accurate QB on deep passes in 2016 (throws traveling 20+ yards downfield)—behind only Sam Bradford. A statistically driven site puts him #1 in the league in deep ball accuracy.