1.01 vs. Buy-Low Studs

[Cameron Giles]

A lot of threads lately asking if someone should trade the 1.01 for a player like Deandre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Todd Gurley, etc.

The arguments that I've seen for the 1.01:
- It's worth more.
- It can only continue to rise in value.
- Those stud players might have peaked already.

The arguments that I've seen for otherwise:
- Those players underperforming is not directly the fault of them getting worse at football.
- We've seen them have elite seasons, and they'll likely do it again.
- The 1.01 has never played a snap and can always bust.

To me, I would have a hard time dealing away a young, elite talent to start over again with the 1.01. Sure, the 1.01 is very valuable, but the majority of that value is tied to draft season. Once that pick is made, can you honestly say that the player selected has less questions than someone who has already produced an elite season? Sure, Ezekiel Elliott is killing it this year. And if for some reason you traded Gurley for the 1.01+ in the offseason, then your early return on investment is pretty good right now. However, most rookies aren't likely to be the #7 overall scorer in fantasy and you wouldn't be a fool if you went with the odds and didn't trade Gurley for the 1.01+.

Which side would you rather have?

[lukkynumber13]

I'd want Hopkins, Cooper, Gurley, and Watkins all over the 1.01. ARob I'm honestly torn. I think I might take the 1.01 over Robinson.

[stoneghost28]

As someone who foolishly traded up in a start up for Hopkins I can tell you that I definitely would not trade up for one of those players and the reason is simple, value.

Hopkins, Robinson, and Gurley will all be cheap for the perceivable future because their situations are essentially unfixable in the short term. Hopkins is stuck with the worst QB in the league, and no prospects on the roster to replace him. It's a bad FA QB class as well so there's no real tangible way to improve his situation and considering targets increasing has had little effect, as a Hopkins owner, I see the issue as hopeless until '18 at the earliest.

In Robinson's case, the situation is nearly as bad with the QB a complete disaster, and the coach about to be s canned. There's no way to know what offensive design will be put in place after Gus is canned, nor what the QB situation will look like as Bortles has probably played his way out of the job. So if the Jags situation is to help Robinson, it probably won't be doing so till late '17 or '18 at the earliest. No real justifiable argument for trading for him.

While Fisher was finally justifiably canned, it doesn't address the Rams core problems which are a lack of talent at all the positions necessary to improve Gurley's chances of being productive. The Rams have no dominating, truly elite options at WR, and no legit 2nd options either and Britt is a FA following this season. Consider how ghastly that situation for a second. They're flushing 56 million down the toilet on Tavon Austin in a deal he must have ran light speed to sign in late August (30 mill guaranteed, think about how horrible that is, and revel in it if you hate the rams and don't own Gurley, unfortunately I am neither of those things). Basically the offense next year for Gurley is Gurley. And that's it. Consider:

Offensive Line: F
Pretty sure that's their grade after this year and they just blew 30 million in SB money that could go to a FA Guard or Tackle or Center on Tavon Freaking Austin, and they don't own their first either, which could have been used to trade down and address OL needs (doesn't look like a great OL draft right now).

QB: F
No depth at the position of quality, and now a very young rookie starter who won't be ready, if ever, until probably '18.

WR: F
No WR's on the roster for '17 other than Tavon Austin and his ridiculous contract, and their rookie draftees Pharoh Cooper, and Disappointing Mike Thomas (between them they have 8 receptions for 65 yards and no TD's combined in their very brief NFL careers). All three are short, diminutive guys to boot, so they're unlikely to draw in linebacker and safety attention next year to any strong degree.

TE: D
Kendricks is subpar, but at least vaguely startable. Baby Gronk Higbee has been a disappointment thus far.

That's Gurley's situation, and poor sap's like me that own him, have to hope he demands a trade and gets it, or he won't be able to change his career trajectory for years plural. It's that bad. You can't fix WR, OL and QB in one offseason, and that's what the Rams offense has to do after Fisher essentially ignored it, despite owning a bushel of redskins picks after the RGIII trade four years ago and all his own as well. Gurley will face 8-10 men fronts for the forseeable future.


Why on earth would anyone trade the rights to Fournette's, Cook or Williams or Davis for that? I know all four are unproven, but by having the 1.1, you have the ability to wrestle multiple picks from people, or better players in better situations (or at worst, inferior players in WAY better situations) in trades, or simply draft the best player in the best situation at 1.1. and call it done.

As someone who owns Hopkins on 1 team, and Gurley on 3, I'd gladly trade both right now for the 1.1, and I tend to have little doubt that an owner would laugh at the offer. Luckily for me I own the 1.3 on the Hopkins squad, and the 1.1, 1.2 1.3, 1.5 and 1.8 on one Gurley team, a lottery pick anywhere from 1.1.-1.6 for another, and the 1.3 and 1.7 for the other team with Gurley. The Hopkins team is already set at WR, while the Gurley teams are really strong at RB (have Bell, D. Henry, and the 1.3 and 1.7 pick), or have the picks to address the problem (lottery 1st between 1 and 6, the 1.7, and 5 second rounders).

Again, an interesting, really interesting debate question, but when you really think about it, with all you could do with the 1.1, it's clear it will have far more value than Gurley and Hopkins for the short term future (both appear screwed till '18 at the earliest) while Robinson appears to be in trouble for at least the next half season if not two. You can just get more in deals, and more in production by keeping or trading the pick for other things, then you could get for trading for the troubled studs.

Honestly, if you want to buy low on those guys, accumulate assets you and the owner would want now and during the offseason, and wait until things continue to suck in the summer/fall of '17 to tempt the owner with an offer of pick(s) and/or players. The value of those guys will almost certainly be even lower a year from now because honestly, what can be done to help any of them? The Rams won't be able to help Gurley until they can suddenly fix their OL, and WR and QB issues, while Hopkins and Robinson's futures depend entirely on the ability of their QB's to not suck (and in Bortles case, for the next staff to put in place an offense that continues to prioritize Robinsons production, while replacing Bortles). Does anyone think Osweiler or Bortles will get it next year? Even less likely that Bortles issues are fixed, or he's replaced with someone of quality AND the next coach is actually good and wants to use Robinson well? I know I doubt.

And Gurley? Again, he's just screwed. Thankfully he's young. Considering his well justified melt down that probably helped get Fisher s canned on Sunday, maybe he also sees the writing on the Wall, and demands a trade? He's smart enough to know that this OL is so bad it's guaranteed to shorten his career, and the respective earnings involved shrink with each game that OL removes from his career trajectory due to getting him absolutely killed every sunday, without fail. Failing that, I imagine he'd be smart enough to bail after his rookie deal is up.

[DynoScout]

I'll take the buy low studs as you've put it CG.

[Death_From_Above]

In a vacuum I'd prefer the young proven NFL talent who may be at a discount because of a bad season over the pick that may be something. But I know the hype that has been building and will continue to build about these players up until your league's draft day.. And Elliot having the success he has had only helps inflate that price. So for me if I own the 1.1 or any 1st's and 2nd's in this years rookie drafts (and I do own a lot) then I'm waiting til they are at the peak price and cashing out on them, and if I cant get a price I like then I'm happy making the pick in what looks to be a really deep draft, especially in IDP leagues, which I play in.

In my 3 dynasty leagues I own:
12 team league - own 4 1sts.. (1.4, 1.7 and 2 more TBD)
12 team league - own 4 1sts.. (1.2, 1.5, 1.7, and 1 more TBD)
16 team league - own 3 1sts.. (1.3, 1.5 and 1 more TBD)

I'm looking back on the specifics of those trades that netted me those picks. Just to reflect and analyze to improve as well as understand the investment I placed on those picks for when folks come knocking.

[Cameron Giles]

As someone who foolishly traded up in a start up for Hopkins I can tell you that I definitely would not trade up for one of those players and the reason is simple, value.

Why on earth would anyone trade the rights to Fournette's, Cook or Williams or Davis for that? I know all four are unproven, but by having the 1.1, you have the ability to wrestle multiple picks from people, or better players in better situations (or at worst, inferior players in WAY better situations) in trades, or simply draft the best player in the best situation at 1.1. and call it done.

But will you wrestle away a package that's better than someone like Hopkins, Gurley or Robinson long-term? Picks are great, but at the end of the day you eventually have to use them on something. I still think Laquon Treadwell will be really good, but a year ago he was the 1.02 and had a ton of value. That value isn't the same today because of a slow early investment.

I like all four of the players you mentioned. However, you're not guaranteed to upgrade situation and those players will struggle at some point too. What happens then? Do we just keep trading players when they struggle? Do I trade away Elliott for the 1.01 if he finishes 2017 with sub-1000 yards and a 3.7 YPC?

(Sorry, only cropped out the post so it wouldn't take up a lot of the page.)

[schiewerma21]

I just think the value of the 1.01 is so high this year with the two stud rbs coming out.
This topic will be going on for months but elite rb talents are gold mines. I said it in another post, zeke and gurley (right or wrong) were top 5 ADP rbs before they played a snap. And both were considered potentially the rb1 after their rookie seasons.

Fournette likely is a top 5 rb in adp this offseason and that's just reality. Again I'm not even saying that's a smart thing but he will be. And cook shouldn't be far behind. I just don't know anyone who OWNS the 1.01 who would sell for Todd gurley at this point or Robinson.
And maybe the gurley and Arob owners who are too prideful won't sell for the 1.01 either and that's ok too. I'm not saying they are wrong.

But I do know this. I own the 1.01 in two and I would literally laugh away an offer for Robinson or gurley for that pick. Literally reply with a big LOL

[KCLep20]

I'd want Hopkins, Cooper, Gurley, and Watkins all over the 1.01. ARob I'm honestly torn. I think I might take the 1.01 over Robinson.

You had me until you said Watkins.....no way would I take Watkins over the 1.01 I would rather have the 1.04 over Watkins. That dude is as overrated as they come!

[clarion contrarion]

amazing how quickly todd gurley went from widely viewed "GENERATIONAL TALENT" in a great situation for a workhorse role in the rams offense "like eddie george was for fisher in tenn." and there are 50 posters , wannabe talent scouting experts and writers around this place that are on record somewhere making that statement or some form of that statement to being a bum unworthy of an unknown lottery ticket .
time for another mystery player quiz !
player A 616 carries for 3830 yards and 40 tds
player B 510 carries for 3285 yards and 36 tds
player C 540 carries for 3130 yards and 35 tds
player D 576 carries for 3322 yards and 37 tds

[broncohead]

I'd take Watking, Gurley, Hopkins, and Arob all over 1.01. I think Arob and Gurley are close but still worth 1.01+

[maxhyde]

I just wish i had more high draft picks. I am quite happy to trade 1.01 away and let someone else hit reset button

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Phaded]

It depends on who you define as a stud.

Would I take guys like Cooper, ARob & Hopkins over the pick? Yeah.

I wouldn't take Gurley over the pick but I've been lower on him than most the whole time.

The interesting case now for me is players like Gronk or the pick, for example.

[JoshGordonsDealer]

amazing how quickly todd gurley went from widely viewed "GENERATIONAL TALENT" in a great situation for a workhorse role in the rams offense "like eddie george was for fisher in tenn." and there are 50 posters , wannabe talent scouting experts and writers around this place that are on record somewhere making that statement or some form of that statement to being a bum unworthy of an unknown lottery ticket .
time for another mystery player quiz !
player A 616 carries for 3830 yards and 40 tds
player B 510 carries for 3285 yards and 36 tds
player C 540 carries for 3130 yards and 35 tds
player D 576 carries for 3322 yards and 37 tds

Don't care enough to look it up, but I'm curious... go for it.

[CL3VELANDBR0WNS]

I'd want Hopkins, Cooper, Gurley, and Watkins all over the 1.01. ARob I'm honestly torn. I think I might take the 1.01 over Robinson.

Robinson is pretty close (maybe better) than Hopkins to me. What are you seeing that disputes that?

[stoneghost28]

As someone who foolishly traded up in a start up for Hopkins I can tell you that I definitely would not trade up for one of those players and the reason is simple, value.

Why on earth would anyone trade the rights to Fournette's, Cook or Williams or Davis for that? I know all four are unproven, but by having the 1.1, you have the ability to wrestle multiple picks from people, or better players in better situations (or at worst, inferior players in WAY better situations) in trades, or simply draft the best player in the best situation at 1.1. and call it done.

But will you wrestle away a package that's better than someone like Hopkins, Gurley or Robinson long-term? Picks are great, but at the end of the day you eventually have to use them on something. I still think Laquon Treadwell will be really good, but a year ago he was the 1.02 and had a ton of value. That value isn't the same today because of a slow early investment.

I like all four of the players you mentioned. However, you're not guaranteed to upgrade situation and those players will struggle at some point too. What happens then? Do we just keep trading players when they struggle? Do I trade away Elliott for the 1.01 if he finishes 2017 with sub-1000 yards and a 3.7 YPC?

(Sorry, only cropped out the post so it wouldn't take up a lot of the page.)

No sweat, as for the core argument, I don't know when or even if any of those three guys will be worth more than what you could get with the 1.1 right now. Is anyone still starting Gurley or Hopkins, unless you literally have nothing else? I have WR's starting over him that I got off the freaking waiver wire. Gurley only starts on the teams where I literally have no other options for RB2. When will it get better? Hopkins, maybe in '18, Robinson, who knows? Gurley, 2019? 2020?

There's simply no way those guys are more valuable than other vets you could get for the 1.1, and at this point, I'd also almost certainly take the player at 1.1, over the stud as well. Yes Dynasty is long term, but leagues can fold at any time and I'm not putting up with an asset that I think will have that little value for 2+ years unless i have no other choice. That's how I see it anyway. There's a lot of ways you can make that draft capital work, and almost any rational way is better than investing it in a player you have no confidence in until 2018 or '19 at the earliest. The pick is simply too valuable to waste on an investment that won't pay you back with production, or flipability.