Which AFC backfields are safest from the '17 RB Class?

[lukkynumber13]

A fellow member commented on my ranking of the top 50 RBs in dynasty, that it would be a worthy excercise to discuss which backfields seem safest from seeing a high RB draft pick this coming year. I'll go thru each team, and give a "safety rating" from 1-10. 1 means they almost have to take a RB early, 10 means they won't.

THIS IS AFC ONLY

Denver Broncos (9): No way they draft a RB in the initial 3-4 rounds. This should be self explanatory

Oakland Raiders (4): They are a prime candidate to take a stud RB, and you don't need me to tell you. I'm actually a fan of Murray, but it's clear that they don't see him as the future. Overall I think the Raiders would be better served drafting a CB, WR, or LB early, but a RB in the first couple rounds wouldn't surprise me

KC Chiefs (8): The only way they would take a RB early is if they somehow don't like Ware, and want to hand Charles' reins to Chubb or something. I doubt it.

SD Chargers (10): Gordon is running well. I'm not looking at fantasy pts, he's running well and doing what he can in this garbage offense. Plus they took him so freaking early. He's not getting replaced in 17

Houston Texans (10): Unless Miller suffers a career ending injury, he's not getting replaced.

Indianapolis Colts (2): We may very well take one, but the one reason we may not? We have other gaping holes that need filled more than RB! OLB, OL, DL, CB, etc. But I'm sure Grigson would love to make a splashy pick of Fournette at 1.09, and let him languish behind our horrid line. SMH...

Tennessee Titans (8): It certainly doesn't seem likely, but if Murray falls off towards the end of the year, MAYBE they take a Cook or McCaffrey to pair with Henry? Not likely.

Jax Jaguars (5): Man, I hate to say it. But Yeldon doesn't seem to be working out. I'm a fanboy of his, but he needs to step up. I know their line is garbage, but 2 YPC? C'mon bro. We know Ivory isn't the future there

NE Pats (5): How awesome would it be if they DID take a RB early? Instead of Blount salting away games, someone with talent? But it's the Pats. They won't do something this obvious... Right??

Buffalo Bills (6): Williams has some talent, McCoy isn't done yet, and Gillislee isn't terrible. Too many holes at WR, TE, OL, and LB to justify an early running back

NY Jets (2): This would make a lot of sense. No youngsters in their current backfield, and a Fournette or McCaffrey to help take pressure off of whatever scrub is taking snaps? This shoe fits.

Miami Dolphins (5): I really do think Ajayi is a competent back, and they took Drake early. Plus, like the Colts and other bad teams, so many other holes to fill. But a RB early wouldn't be out of the question.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9): Barring a Bell screw up, which could happen, no way they take one

Cincy Bengals (8): They just re-signed Bernard, and Hill is a fine filler back, and he's cheap

Baltimore Ravens (8): Dixon was a fairly early pick, West is playing well, and it's not the Raven way. They'll draft another CB, or safety, or DE...

Cleveland Browns (2): They have the capital to make a move for a RB & still draft a QB, and Crowell isn't the future there. Unless they want Duke to be a 3-downer, which they certainly don't seem to, then taking a RB early would make sense for the Browns.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I more or less agree with most of these but I don't agree at all with the Baltimore take. I wouldn't classify Dixon as a "fairly early pick," he was drafted at the end of the 4th round and hasn't proven anything yet. Even if he does play well I don't think the Ravens see him as a complete back (otherwise they probably would have drafted him higher). West is playing well but he's only signed through this year.

Thanks for the write-up though.

[ninotoreS]

Denver Broncos (9): No way they draft a RB in the initial 3-4 rounds. This should be self explanatory

This isn't true. CJA's contract is massively front-loaded for this year, it's conceivable he can be cut after this season. As for Booker, he's just a 4th round pick. That's hardly a lofty front-office investment.

Oakland Raiders (4): They are a prime candidate to take a stud RB, and you don't need me to tell you. I'm actually a fan of Murray, but it's clear that they don't see him as the future. Overall I think the Raiders would be better served drafting a CB, WR, or LB early, but a RB in the first couple rounds wouldn't surprise me

Ironically in the context of your posting, logically, the Raiders are equally as likely as Denver to draft an RB; both have starters this year that can be easily shown the door next year, both only invested a modest Day 3 pick on a running-back from this year's class.

KC Chiefs (8): The only way they would take a RB early is if they somehow don't like Ware, and want to hand Charles' reins to Chubb or something. I doubt it.

Charles still has a couple of years left on his contract iirc, but more importantly the Chiefs by all indications are very happy to have Ware and West locked up for a few years. While those two don't really represent major fiscal investment, they've both already proven they're capable of being a productive feature-back, so I agree the Chiefs' odds of drafting an RB with a Day 1 or Day 2 pick are lower than most.

SD Chargers (10): Gordon is running well. I'm not looking at fantasy pts, he's running well and doing what he can in this garbage offense. Plus they took him so freaking early. He's not getting replaced in 17

No, he's running poorly, and Rivers is carrying the offense and doing it well, in fact, even without Allen. With Woodhead a free agent next year, the Chargers are very likely to take a solid RB prospect on Day 2 and just about guaranteed to do so on Day 3. '17's RB class is so deep with quality prospects (and some quite good dudes will still be available on Day 2) and Gordon so underwhelming that it's conceivable, even probable that whoever they get will usurp Gordon in a year or two.

Houston Texans (10): Unless Miller suffers a career ending injury, he's not getting replaced.

50/50 chance of taking an RB with a Day 2 pick, I'd say. No team is comfortable with only one RB on the chart capable of carrying a full load. And Ervin doesn't appear to be making a strong argument to be their quality depth behind Miller.

Indianapolis Colts (2): We may very well take one, but the one reason we may not? We have other gaping holes that need filled more than RB! OLB, OL, DL, CB, etc. But I'm sure Grigson would love to make a splashy pick of Fournette at 1.09, and let him languish behind our horrid line. SMH...

Colts are taking an RB no later than Day 2. Of course they have need at a lot of positions, but RB is worse than most. There's too many good options available next year for them to not address the clear need they have at the position. Right now the Colts running-game is completely doomed without old man Gore. That has to be corrected, soon.

Tennessee Titans (8): It certainly doesn't seem likely, but if Murray falls off towards the end of the year, MAYBE they take a Cook or McCaffrey to pair with Henry? Not likely.

A Day 3 pick is a reasonable possibility. Although that's true for just about every team. Day 2 or earlier? No.

Jax Jaguars (5): Man, I hate to say it. But Yeldon doesn't seem to be working out. I'm a fanboy of his, but he needs to step up. I know their line is garbage, but 2 YPC? C'mon bro. We know Ivory isn't the future there

They're paying Ivory 30 million, actually, so he's sure to be a Jaguar for awhile. Yeldon is a rotational-back, but a decent one. I say there's an outside chance of a Day 2 pick, but for the most part I think the Jaguars are okay at RB. The terrible run-O this year has 90% to do with the O-line being shot to heck.


I have to go to work now, will finish this post later.

[BuckeyeNation]

Don't have time to go through all of these now, but I think PIT could be a dark horse to draft a RB in the first couple rounds in '17. I remain skeptical that they back up the money truck for Bell due to his perennial injuries/suspensions, and I think it's conceivable that he prices himself out of Pittsburgh.

[TommyL31]

All depends on what you consider an 'early' pick. Taking a RB in 1st is becoming increasingly rare but so is having a workhorse back so it isn't that surprising to see almost any team take a RB in the 3rd or 4th. But in terms of relative likelihood I think the Broncos and Ravens are much more likely to take a RB because I don't think their rookie RBs are going to be workhorses and I'm not sure how long their vets stick around.

I think Cleveland is much less likely to take a RB. Crowell and Johnson aren't world beaters but they're a good complement to each other (a la Hill and Gio) and the Browns are so bad in so many other places. Actually, I guess I should say the Browns SHOULDN'T take a RB in the top 4 rounds. But then again, they're the Browns so the odds of them making good decisions is pretty close to zero.

[lawilt]

Don't see Oakland taking a rb in the first 4 rounds. Not Reggie's style.

[Litesout13]

Here are my thoughts on the AFC teams

Denver Broncos: They are very hard to predict. They love to shuffle around RBs based on the hot hand. I say they dont make that move, but I also thought Moreno and Hillman were the guy at one point

Oakland Raiders: I have said for a while that they take a RB. They have never committed to Murray and the other guys seem like JAG. They have built their offense up very nicely, now they just need a stud RB to go along with it.

KC Chiefs: Charles is under contract and as a fan, I hope they bring Ware back. But if Ware's asking price is too high, I could see them parting ways and drafting another guy.

SD Chargers: No way they bail on Gordon this early

Houston Texans: They have their guy

Indianapolis Colts: They need to fix that offensive line!! But they also need to grab a legit RB that can take some of the pressure off Luck.

Tennessee Titans: Cant see them going RB, maybe at all, in this draft.

Jax Jaguars: They seem primed to grab a RB early. Yeldon has done next to nothing.

NE Pats: They are tough to predict. They seem to have some good guys that fit their system, but I can see them wanting a true RB1 to shoulder the load. McCaffrey would be perfect in their system and could be the 3 down guy and fill both elements of their offense!!

Buffalo Bills: I dont see them moving on from McCoy yet. Plus, I also liked Williams coming out.

NY Jets: Forte is getting too old and being inconsistent. They should look to grab someone early to help with whatever young QB they roll with.

Miami Dolphins: I dont like Ajayi at all. People will jump on the bandwagon of his more recent performances but it seems more like an anomaly to me.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Hopefully Bell stays on the field. He is a stud

Cincy Bengals: I dont see them making this move. BUT in the past they have drafted positions they are deep in to prepare for the future, so you never know.,

Baltimore Ravens: I wasnt a fan of Dixon. Not sure I believe West is the guy. Wouldnt shock me to see them grab another RB

Cleveland Browns: Their RBs are average and inconsistent. They have extra picks. All signs point to grabbing a RB early

[Shoreline Steamers]

KC Chiefs: Charles is under contract and as a fan, I hope they bring Ware back. But if Ware's asking price is too high, I could see them parting ways and drafting another guy.

Already done. He's there if they want him through 2018. $700K in 2017 and $1.45mil in 2018. His asking price short of holding out isn't an issue. West has the exact same deal, so I wouldn't look at the Chiefs as likely to draft a RB until later. The OP's 8 feels solid.

[Litesout13]

KC Chiefs: Charles is under contract and as a fan, I hope they bring Ware back. But if Ware's asking price is too high, I could see them parting ways and drafting another guy.

Already done. He's there if they want him through 2018. $700K in 2017 and $1.45mil in 2018. His asking price short of holding out isn't an issue. West has the exact same deal, so I wouldn't look at the Chiefs as likely to draft a RB until later. The OP's 8 feels solid.

Thanks for the correction. For some reason I thought he and West signed 1 year deals. With that being said, they probably wont look at RB unless they part ways with someone. Or at least not look at one until late

[Factory of Sadness]

Thanks for the original post. Great topic and lots of interesting stuff following it too.

I'll take my stab at the AFC teams in a minute. My first question to you guys is related, but a little broader. When is it worth it to invest in a back? Looking at Gurley, Zeke and Gordon makes me wonder. I know he might get hurt which will bring the naysayers out, but Zeke looks like he's making Dallas a real contender right now. Is that because he's a great back, or because they have a great line? Or both?

Is it only worth getting a good back if the line is good enough to stop him being swamped behind the line most of the time? I know that sounds a silly question, but right now that's no more than half the teams in the league. Do you need a good back if your outside WRs aren't good enough to get off press or threaten deep? Or is it just not worth it to get one if you have no weapons outside. Do you get a power back because your QB needs to throw off play-action, or a burner to exploit the empty boxes your QB can force? If you're the Colts, would someone like Cook keep the heat off Luck, or would people just stack and play the run on the way to the QB anyway? If your line is weak. is getting a good back just putting a cherry on an unpolished turd?


Denver Broncos: Don't see it. They like Booker. CJ works for them. They don't have glaring weaknesses anywhere, so best player available is a possibility, but they have good backs and would be confident that they could find a plug and play guy for that system late or cheaply.

Oakland Raiders: They could do it. I think they'll be happy to get by with what they have and invest on D, but it's definitely a possibility.

KC Chiefs: Nope.

SD Chargers: A complementary pass catching back maybe, but not an early round lead guy.

Houston Texans: No. Though they may want an upgrade on Blue.

Indianapolis Colts: The most interesting team of all I think. The early buzz is that the O-line prospects aren't great. Would RB be the best chance of keeping Luck alive? I think they probably do it.

Tennessee Titans: Nope.

Jaguars: I doubt it. The line and the Qb are bigger issues- and the coaching. Sadly looking like they may not have their guy though.

NE Pats: Just maybe. Seems so anti-Bill, but could you get more years out of Brady by adding a genuine talent at RB? Precedent says no, and I doubt it, but they can't draft WRs and Brady increasingly loves the flats and the short middle...

Buffalo Bills: No.

NY Jets: I doubt it. Powell's pretty good and RB really isn't their problem. Possible though.

Miami Dolphins: Like the Colts, you'd think O-line over everything. Is Ajayi a Gase back though?

Pittsburgh Steelers: No.

Bengals: Doubt it.

Baltimore Ravens: Don't think so.

Cleveland Browns: I think Crowell and Duke are both pretty good and they have so many other holes.It's the Browns though...

I see more likely candidates in the NFC, but we may have more good backs than there are vacancies

[schiewerma21]

Luckkynumber13 I have really enjoyed these posts. Nice work and effort!

I will share my tiers with you guys:
Stud opportunity: opportunity is there primed with young qb
1) Carolina
2) Oakland
3) colts
4) packers
5) eagles

Opportunity to start but shaky line/running offense
6) ny Giants
7) Miami Dolphins
8) ny jets
9) Baltimore ravens
10) browns
11) bears
12) lions

That said, quite a few talented runners coming out. I would not be surprised to see a handful of week 1 starters out of the 2017 class. With another 3-5 waiting eagerly in wings

[bruiser]

Safest: Derrick Henry

Next: Melvin Gordon

14: DEN committee (smart management)

....many in between....

3: Jets committee

2: Blount

1: Frank Gore

[lukkynumber13]

Hahaha man... I was so off on these!

[grooner]

Hahaha man... I was so off on these!

Well it appears you were quite off, almost everyone would have agreed with your classifications a year ago when you made them. This just shows how little we actually know, and how unpredictable not only the NFL is, but even more so fantasy football.