Melvin Gordon value

[Jfever]

JFever, you are combining several different arguments together and building a giant straw-man. The original premise is simply that Gordon hasn't looked good on the field and the numbers support the idea that his play has been deficient. I fail to see the absurdity in that. Now YOU may not believe in that, and so the ideas that extend from that basic premise seem ridiculous to you. But let's not pretend that the T-Rich comparisons are sooooooo far off if you were to buy in to the fact that Melvin Gordon is not a very good RB.

I just want to know, what has Melvin Gordon done to warrant this type of virulent defense? He's looked bad (or at the very least, unimpressive) on the field, put up bad numbers (same as Branden Oliver who was in the same or similar situation), seemingly has fumbling issues. I've watched his college tape and that wasn't overly impressive either. Sure it's good to preach caution on defining a players career after 280 carries, but there's a right way and a wrong way to go about that. Dismissing others credible ideas as ridiculous is the wrong way imo.

Well, I'm not really intending on putting together a straw man. My original premise was to answer the OP's question. And explain why. I then started reading and saw a handful of what I felt were misleading, misguided, misinformed, unsubstantiated claims and opinions that seemed misplaced. So, then I tried to compile my response and answer and deal with as many as possible. (multiple birds / one shot type thing).

I've never made the claim that Gordon has looked good. I do agree that he has been a bit underwhelming. But, on that, I think we can understand "why" that is. Some here are putting the onus on Melvin Gordon's shoulders, Some, like myself, are saying; Be patient, what we've seen thus far in 20 or so games out of the 23 year old, is not what he is. It is rather, a slow / poor start, and... it's explainable AND understandable.

NO where was any idea credible by the way that insinuated that we as a community can come to a CAREER conclusion after seeing 280 acres out of a 23 year old that has run behind a horrific O-line for 20 games. Lets just get that straight.

[Reljac]

NO where was any idea credible by the way that insinuated that we as a community can come to a CAREER conclusion after seeing 280 acres out of a 23 year old that has run behind a horrific O-line for 20 games. Lets just get that straight.

It became more credible to me, when Brandon Oliver and Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead all posted a combined better yds per carry stats to him in slight more carries than him last season.

The greatest comparison tool is your peers on your own team. I don't see any of those three as talented rushers. For comparison, Donald 2015 numbers were no different than those during his Indianapolis days before we solely throw the O-line under the bus.

It's probably also important to note that his ypc is down this season compared to last despite the fact that the O-line is graded higher than last year O-line.

[Jfever]

YPC simply is not the be all, end all measurement of a skilled vs a non skilled Rb. Again, play calling, # of touches, position on the field, Offensive personnel, Game situation, down and distance. ALL of that come into play. I feel like I'm talking in circles.

[jarridgil]

Very good clean straight shooting debate. Thanks

[Wildcat23]

I've never been a fan of Melvin Gordon as a dynasty asset. When I watch Gordon, I see indecisiveness behind the line, questionable backfield vision, and a lack of rhythym / anticipation in setting up blocks. Many have pointed to poor O-line play as the culprit. While this probably plays a factor, the running back's ability to set up his blockers is an essential part of the equation. Gordon isn't (yet at least) good at this skill. Also, as others have pointed out, it is dangerous to assume that the same SD front office, which has drafted offensive highly in the past (DJ Fluker, for example), will suddenly fix this problem anytime soon. I've personally made the mistake of assuming bad front offices would address a weak offensive line to help skill players I liked several times and have been burned. Look at Miami, Indianapolis, and Detroit for recent examples. Sometimes the bad lines stay that way for years.

I agree that ypc doesn't tell the whole story, but its certainly an important plot element. Gordon isn't ripping off chunk plays on a regular basis. His college tape showed a lack of top end speed and that has shown up in the NFL.

All that said, there are reasons for optimism. He has improved drastically in the passing game. That's huge and gives him a different path to scoring in ppr. He's appears to be running with more power this year, which has obviously helped his TD production.

To answer the OP, I'm not buying Gordon because the price is way too high at the moment. But I'm higher on him than I was, if for no other reason than that as the workhorse in SD, he has a huge opportunity to continue to improve. If you can get Gordon at reasonable price (good luck), there are worse gambles.

[Reljac]

While ypc is only one stat and no definitive by any means it's a useful measure.

San Diego's O-line was ranked 27th headed into last week, meaning 5 other teams had worse lines. In 2016, with a lack of similar team peers to compare to, I'd look to the defenses they've played....

Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jags, and KC....
In Rushing Yards per Game, these teams rank: #18, #27, #26, #17, & #29 respectively

Gordon could not have had a better schedule as far as opposing defenses ability to stop the run, regardless of his O-line.

These same defenses (since many are also bad pass defenses) when looked at a ypc against them turn out:
#28, #30, #26, #14, and #27 respectively....
In other words, he's basically played the 4 of the 6 worst teams at stopping the run altogether... 4 of the 5 teams he's played allow 1 yard per carry more than he's averaging.

[clarion contrarion]

JFever, you are combining several different arguments together and building a giant straw-man. The original premise is simply that Gordon hasn't looked good on the field and the numbers support the idea that his play has been deficient. I fail to see the absurdity in that. Now YOU may not believe in that, and so the ideas that extend from that basic premise seem ridiculous to you. But let's not pretend that the T-Rich comparisons are sooooooo far off if you were to buy in to the fact that Melvin Gordon is not a very good RB.

I just want to know, what has Melvin Gordon done to warrant this type of virulent defense? He's looked bad (or at the very least, unimpressive) on the field, put up bad numbers (same as Branden Oliver who was in the same or similar situation), seemingly has fumbling issues. I've watched his college tape and that wasn't overly impressive either. Sure it's good to preach caution on defining a players career after 280 carries, but there's a right way and a wrong way to go about that. Dismissing others credible ideas as ridiculous is the wrong way imo.

NOW I REALIZE I WILL GET SLAUGHTERED FOR THIS ! BUT HERE GOES NOTHING.

you want a solid trich comparison look in L.A. , do some homework and compare gurley and trich's college production and 1st and 2nd year career arc's and #. Go do a side by side and then think of what the narrative might be about gurley without that 4 game explosion early on.
In my opinion the rams are miles away from having the weapons to just unleash gurley they way reljac suggested - they do not have the qb fixed and the same "braintrust" that has screwed up the last 5 or 6 offensive drafts save gurley is still pulling the strings . They have drafted close to many wr and have yet to have a real difference maker and now are going through the 2nd iteration of an oline overhaul with similar results (10 drafted in last 5 years)
What could easily happen is what I firmly believe happened to trich ( combined w/ his lack of dedication) is he ran into so many brickwalls that he just assumed another brickwall was ahead and overthought his job and lost his confidence and fearlessness. His career was over shortly afterwards . While I would not project such an outcome for gurley the shelf life for most rbs in the NFL is damned short and wasting two or three or four seasons playing in that morass of an offensive system is doing little to merit his glowing reputation among his legions of fanboys.

[toine]

do you trade Fuller for Gordon?

[dm1129]

JFever, you are combining several different arguments together and building a giant straw-man. The original premise is simply that Gordon hasn't looked good on the field and the numbers support the idea that his play has been deficient. I fail to see the absurdity in that. Now YOU may not believe in that, and so the ideas that extend from that basic premise seem ridiculous to you. But let's not pretend that the T-Rich comparisons are sooooooo far off if you were to buy in to the fact that Melvin Gordon is not a very good RB.

I just want to know, what has Melvin Gordon done to warrant this type of virulent defense? He's looked bad (or at the very least, unimpressive) on the field, put up bad numbers (same as Branden Oliver who was in the same or similar situation), seemingly has fumbling issues. I've watched his college tape and that wasn't overly impressive either. Sure it's good to preach caution on defining a players career after 280 carries, but there's a right way and a wrong way to go about that. Dismissing others credible ideas as ridiculous is the wrong way imo.

NOW I REALIZE I WILL GET SLAUGHTERED FOR THIS ! BUT HERE GOES NOTHING.

you want a solid trich comparison look in L.A. , do some homework and compare gurley and trich's college production and 1st and 2nd year career arc's and #. Go do a side by side and then think of what the narrative might be about gurley without that 4 game explosion early on.
In my opinion the rams are miles away from having the weapons to just unleash gurley they way reljac suggested - they do not have the qb fixed and the same "braintrust" that has screwed up the last 5 or 6 offensive drafts save gurley is still pulling the strings . They have drafted close to many wr and have yet to have a real difference maker and now are going through the 2nd iteration of an oline overhaul with similar results (10 drafted in last 5 years)
What could easily happen is what I firmly believe happened to trich ( combined w/ his lack of dedication) is he ran into so many brickwalls that he just assumed another brickwall was ahead and overthought his job and lost his confidence and fearlessness. His career was over shortly afterwards . While I would not project such an outcome for gurley the shelf life for most rbs in the NFL is damned short and wasting two or three or four seasons playing in that morass of an offensive system is doing little to merit his glowing reputation among his legions of fanboys.

There simply is ZERO similarity in talent between T-Rich and Gurley. Opponents saw what Gurley can do if given any room to run and adjusted. Keep in mind that the Rams passing attack was the worst in the league and O-line was terrible last year when Gurley was on fire. What changed is defensive coordinators quickly recognized what Gurley is and literally made it their entire defensive game plan to stop him by putting nine men in the box and then looking at Fisher on the sideline and saying 'throw, we dare you'. Gurley does not need the passing attack nor the O-line to dramatically improve to enjoy a huge improvement in his production as last year he showed he can produce with very poor circumstances. He just needs enough improvement to prevent teams from making him the sole objective of the defense on every play. That is why I do not agree with the narrative that Gurley is doomed to waste for the next several years.

As for Gordon, the weaknesses in his game have already been listed in this thread so I will not repeat them. He is essentially the same RB as he was at Wisconsin. RB is one of the easiest positions to transfer from college to NFL, so I think nearly 300 carries is enough to show what Gordon is and is not as a runner. He is not a game changer. Is it possible that his production will improve with improvements in the SD O-line? Of course, but with a very viable passing attack and good O-line, the same could be said of the other RBs on the SD roster who have for the most part outperformed him or most RBs in the league for that matter.

[sconnie21]

Would like to say my gordon sale is complete. 12 team ppr dynasty. Start one rb (can flex one if desired).
Gordon, mid 2017 2nd, late 2018 1st for Watkins and Doctson. Team in sig below.

[FantasyFreak]

It is really almost like people read but don't see the words.

How is it that when we discuss Gordon we see what we want to see. Some on this thread seem to think he is a sell because he is now scoring TD's and TD's are unsustainable. They point to Antonio Gates getting healthy as one of the reasons. WTF? Is this not DYNASTY?

If people here are not familiar with real NFL football enough to have figured out that SD is VERY VERY likely to be addressing their insufficient O-line via the NFL draft and through free agency, then, I don't know what to tell you. What I can tell you is that Gordon's deck was stacked against him coming into the league.

Also, I do not believe that Gurley is a transcendent / generational talent. Is he good? Yes, is he one of the better young rb in the league? yep? Is he in the same type of talent group as AP? Nope, he isn't. I do think he is a better all around rb than Gordon based on what we've seen thus far, and I've said that before. But, for those that continue to see what they want, and ignore simple causal relationships, (cause / effect), and seem to not understand the how and why of the NFL, I don't know what else to say. Some in this thread are WAY over simplifying and coming to conclusions on a 23 year old back FAR too early. It is quite frustrating actually.

Rb in the NFL vs College - is a position that is situational and dependent on multiple variables most of the time. Whether some of you want to admit this or not; For all but the very top tier talents, they are dependent on O-line health and level of play, Offensive scheme, competent Qb play, adequate wr play, defense to keep them in game or provide a score that is conducive to running the ball throughout the game, and field position.

At the end of the day, for what we have seen thus far, Gordon is a buy (if you can get him at a reasonable price) if you are competing and need the rb help to put you over the top. This is dynasty but it is also about winning and to be clear, there aren't a whole lot of rb producing right now.... Like I said earlier, it is a balance that some of the posters here seemingly are not getting. If you are not competing this year and don't think you will be next year either, Gordon is probably a sell depending on what you can get for him in your league. Look, I've been doing this for a very long time. Involved with fantasy since mid 90's. Running back is the last piece you add if you want to go on a run in dynasty settings. So, what im saying is, you don't want to BUILD around rb if you can help it. What this means is; Depending on your individual roster / league, Melvin Gordon is both a buy or a sell. Some of you claim this crazy Nostradamus crap that Gordon can't keep this up or wont' improve or SD won't improve their situation via the draft or free agency to benefit their run game. The fact is, you simply aren't' aware of what you don't know. It is comical and frustrating at the same time.

Come on, man? Is it really that "crazy" to claim there is a TD reduction coming? Do you really expect Gordon to score 20 TD's this year? Nostradamus? SD may address the OL through the draft or FA, but didn't the Rams address the OL in the same draft they drafted Gurley? That's what pretty much everybody was saying at the time. How's that working for them? It's hard to turn one of the worse OL's in the league around in 1 year, so to say he is stuck with this situation for the foreseeable future is not only totally sane, it's very probable.

I am certainly not calling him a bust, but he is an inefficient runner and I don't see the TD rate as being sustainable.

[voiceofunreason]

JFever told me I was pretty much mentally challenged when I said Trent Richardson was overrated way back when, but ypc and playing badly still doesn't matter, just fantasy points. Now I do think Gordon is better, but he's still not good.

He's had an incredibly easy schedule against the Saints, Colts and Raiders and went 51 for 140 against what I'd say are the 3 worst defenses in football. It's true that he has no competition this year and should get by on volume alone. But they simply have to bring someone in next year unless there's huge improvement and the tds are going to be hit and miss even this eyar. So I'd be paying the price for a 1 year rental and then hope I sold in the offseason before anything happens. At the right price he's okay but trading Cooks for him or anything close to that is crazy.

[Factory of Sadness]

He's definitely an interesting one to judge. Haven't seen the long speed at all yet and I think it's reasonable to expect that even behind a shitty O-line there would have been a couple of holes big enough to let him burn off a long TD run. As that was probably his main selling point coming out, it's a worry. Conversely, he looks a much more powerful runner than I saw last year, or expected coming out. He's hitting it hard and driving the pile. He looks decent in pass pro and is clearly a respectable threat in the passing game.
The difficulty comes with assessing how much the failings of the team are masking his talent. They still run that 'stupid-shotgun-half-draw-play-that-never-works' far too often. They don't have much of a play-action game to establish doubt on running downs. The line is weak. You can take your pick really- the ascending talent with a weak supporting cast story holds up and so does the lacklustre runner propped up by TDs narrative. In cases like this, as risky as it is, I'm inclined to filter in what little we can glean about character and work ethic. Gordon seems to me someone who will keep giving it everything he has to get better and I think that takes 'bust' off the table.
That said, he coughs up another couple of fumbles and this debate gets settled fast...

[jarridgil]

Love the take above. Agree with all those points

[Jfever]

do you trade Fuller for Gordon?

Again, depends on you team needs, are you competing, what are your strengths, weakness etc. On value alone, yes, Gordon is worth more than Fuller.

Some of you are saying SD O-line is good, others that it's not. To be clear, it isn't good and hasn't been good for some time. His situation is luke warm in SD. 1. yes, he is the main rb their and his role is bigger than it would have been so touches should be there. 2. Even though the touches will be there, his O-line is one of the worst in the NFL, their defense will put their offense into catch up mode more often than they'll be in clock killing mode. 3. The offensive weapons have been incredibly inconsistent aside from Rivers over the past 20 games. Gates is old and is a shell of his former self. The team has been riddled by injuries, and the defense has put the offense into catch up mode much of the time. The situation has been cancerous for some time in SD. Anyway, with that being said.

No way you can say the writing is on the wall after 273 carries out of a 23 year old behind that line. If you guys are comfortable with that, so be it. I am not. I wouldn't recommend the lack of patience for those just getting into Dynasty. I feel as if some in this thread have a twinge of redraft mentality to their evaluation processes.

Voice, you may have called it on TRich. I don't recall. Didn't realize the sensitivity level. Must have really rubbed you raw, for you to bring it up after the time that has obviously gone by, and look now, you get to simultaneously thump your chest / pat yourself on the back for being right about TRich. For the record, we are all right every once in a while. Just not a good practice or good advice to forum readers new to the hobby to jump the gun on labeling 22-23 year old a bust after what we have seen considering the circumstances in SD. I'm quite sure you do understand that. Ego is a strange thing though, even on forums like this.

He does have areas of weakness that he as in individual football player must work on. I've said that many times and absolutely agree with that take that some have laid out. He has also shown improvement with a less than stellar supporting cast, I've said that several times as well. He should have put up better numbers against the defenses he's faced thus far as it pertains to yards and a long run here or there. There is no excuse for that.

Also, FantasyFreak, I could have worded that better. I get your point in that a regression is likely for his TD rate. The Nostradamus comment really was less to do with stats and more to do with potential. Again, typing fast and not proof reading. Thanks for calling me out on that. Point taken. AS to the TD rate continuing; I didn't mean to insinuate that the pace will continue. Obviously it cannot continue at it's current rate. It would be extremely unlikely. I guess it could happen but, I wouldn't bank on it. The Nostradamus comment was again, more to do with the claims that the kid is a bust and the absurd confidence some seem to have in that opinion based on the amount of data we have seen - it had nothing to do with prediction of stats, continuation of stats, td, etc. Just to clarify.