If you could afford to wait two years - Goff or Wentz?

[moishetreats]

Where do you put Lynch's ceiling compared to Goff and Wentz? Part of me wonders if his is the highest...

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hmmmm - interesting and valuable points there as always, DD.

Thanks. I should also point out that Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady never threw for over 3,000 yards, albeit in an era when there was probably less passing. But it's interesting nonetheless I think.

Paxton Lynch is 3,800 yards, 28 tds, 4 ints. But he's unbelievably dumb with a 18 wonderlic. Derek Carr has a 20 and Cam Newton has a 21, but if you're playing the odds you definitely want to see a 25+ at least from a QB. I haven't watched much tape on him so I couldn't really give a definitive opinion one way or the other right now.

[maxhyde]

Lynch can play football but I think he is a bit further behind the other 2 guys than he is being taken in drafts.
Wonderlic is one thing to consider but I don't think football players (even QB's) have to be rocket scientists...it helps at QB for sure but time and reps will get the job done too and he might have a pretty easy path considering the competition.

[ninotoreS]

Give me Goff. Year to year improvement in college, big time production in a Power 5 conference. Signs of NFL-level pocket poise already, keeping his eyes scanning downfield through progressions while climbing the pocket. It'll take time for him to get weapons and he may have to slog through a coaching-staff change soon, though. And he struggles with zone coverage for some weird reason while eating man-coverage for lunch. And he needs to learn to play under center, which is intimidating. But Gurley's gonna be great for selling play-action.

Wentz isn't bad, but he's making a big jump from FCS football, and he really wasn't dominant until his fourth year. He's also injury prone, going back to and including his baseball days. And Pederson's history of snail-pace tempo on offense is terrible for fantasy.

I don't want anything to do with Lynch. When he faced defensive-backs with draftable grades he was terrible. He doesn't throw receivers open, ever. Among a host of other issues that are going to become much bigger problems in the NFL. Plus, I'm predicting Kubiak is fired within three seasons, and Lynch is totally Kubiak's guy.

[TomBobAnderson]

Hmmmm - interesting and valuable points there as always, DD.

Thanks. I should also point out that Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady never threw for over 3,000 yards, albeit in an era when there was probably less passing. But it's interesting nonetheless I think.

Paxton Lynch is 3,800 yards, 28 tds, 4 ints. But he's unbelievably dumb with a 18 wonderlic. Derek Carr has a 20 and Cam Newton has a 21, but if you're playing the odds you definitely want to see a 25+ at least from a QB. I haven't watched much tape on him so I couldn't really give a definitive opinion one way or the other right now.

If Lynch is dumb what does that make Dan Marino? His wonderlic score was even worse

As for the OP I'd take Treadwell. Personally I don't think either Goff or Wentz will be in the league 5 years from now. I'm probably wrong though.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hmmmm - interesting and valuable points there as always, DD.

Thanks. I should also point out that Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady never threw for over 3,000 yards, albeit in an era when there was probably less passing. But it's interesting nonetheless I think.

Paxton Lynch is 3,800 yards, 28 tds, 4 ints. But he's unbelievably dumb with a 18 wonderlic. Derek Carr has a 20 and Cam Newton has a 21, but if you're playing the odds you definitely want to see a 25+ at least from a QB. I haven't watched much tape on him so I couldn't really give a definitive opinion one way or the other right now.

If Lynch is dumb what does that make Dan Marino? His wonderlic score was even worse

DLF, the place where every discussion about odds and percentages is reduced to an outlier.

[DJB]

I'm in the same exact boat as the op and we have discussed this back and forth. It's great seeing the comments here. Starting to provide some clarity for me.

Keep it up boys!

[Phaded]

As for the OP I'd take Treadwell. Personally I don't think either Goff or Wentz will be in the league 5 years from now. I'm probably wrong though.

0% chance I take Treadwell at that spot. Only way I would take him is if I traded down to 1.06-1.07 and he was still there. Although it is my ideal trade down range.

However, my opinions of Treadwell have been discussed a lot in different threads so I'm not going to sway off topic.

[Eight7Seven]

Similarly to what many have said I also do not have strong feelings about this QB class. If I was too be selecting one of them in a superflex league I would go with Goff. In that situation I would be trusting Matt Waldman more than my own evaluation. I haven't watched much tape on either QB, but from what I have seen neither one seem deserving of their elite draft status. Personally I would continue and try and trade the pick. I would even be willing to move down to the middle of the first this year and adding a first from next years class.

[TomBobAnderson]

Dynasty DeLorean I never said you were wrong but I still would like to know, is Dan Marino stupid or no? Serious question. I can also name you plenty of "genius" QBs who failed in the NFL. I'm not attacking you just the Wonderlic test. I think it's worthless.

[ninotoreS]

A year or two ago I read about a study examining long-term successful franchise QBs drafted in the last 15 or so years, and basically every 'hit' during that interval scored at least a 26 on the Wonderlic (26 or 25... pretty sure it was 26). Marino was drafted in '83 so he wasn't in the time-frame studied.

But it can be argued that pro defenses of his era weren't as clever at pre-snap concealing of coverages and blitzes as they are now. In today's NFL, QBs have to be able to do rapid and effective post-snap reads, or they have be so good at studying film that they can consistently see through all the pre-snap deceptions.

[Pix]

In my superflex (albeit with lower QB scoring) Goff and Wentz went at 6 and 10. Lynch and Cardale were next at 17 and 29.
If I really wanted a QB I'd be trading down a bit, even if the compensation is only a future second.
Personally though, I'd take Treadwell at 1.2 and try to grab Cardale Jones later.

[Servo]

I don't think anyone here will live or die by the Wonderlic, because the questions themselves have nothing to do with football. But it does stress decision making, reaction time, some critical thinking and let's be honest, all of those components can be displayed on a football field. Lynch's sub-par score, compared to all of his current QB peers, while not a complete deal breaker, isn't something I'll gloss over.

[Phaded]

But it can be argued that pro defenses of his era weren't as clever at pre-snap concealing of coverages and blitzes as they are now. In today's NFL, QBs have to be able to do rapid and effective post-snap reads, or they have be so good at studying film that they can consistently see through all the pre-snap deceptions.

I think this is a very good point - defenses have become much smarter and much more complex.

I remember the days when the raiders ran strictly a man coverage scheme.. All the time.

Is there any QB with great success that scored very low on the wonderlic? Just curious as you mentioned that study. Or was it literally higher than 25 for all of them?

[Bison]

Since we are talking wonderlics. Wentz scored a 40. Goff scored a 36.

Here's a little story of why I'm sold on Wentz outside of being a homer.

His OC asked him before a dead period in the off season after his first championship as a starter to do a homework assignment. He said I want you take every play we ran last season and give me a better play we could have run with the situation and defense being run. He completed in 36 hours. The OC said he's done the same with other quarterbacks and he's never seen anyone even completely finish the assignment.