Tyler Lockett - Get him before it's too late

[Cameron Giles]

So you're telling me that Lockett is still really good at football and he was just injured for most of the year?

I'm truthfully shocked.

[Shoreline Steamers]

So you're telling me that Lockett is still really good at football and he was just injured for most of the year?

I'm truthfully shocked.

Tough to read nuance in text, so I'm not at all sure you are shocked CG. But yes, I would say this accurately reflects my feelings about Lockett.

[ninotoreS]

Lockett was obviously a disappointment this year, but my estimation of his baseline talent remains unchanged. He's still got his whole career ahead of him.

[stoneghost28]

In my work league redraft I had to hurredly pick him up last weekend at about 3:04 on Sunday. Almost forgot and left him in this week, but ended up taking him out. Doh!

Feeling a little bit better about my deadline deal of D. Adams for Lockett and 2 '17 3rds. Was looking bad for a while, and was going to break something after it looked like I'd lose a semi-final because I kept him on the bench.

That trade I did, and Lockett in general just seemed like a wise investment once his price became halfway reasonable, rather than idiotic like it seemed in July/August.

I did manage to also pick him up off of waivers in a salary cap league for $2. In that league the price goes up $5 plus 10% of his salary rounded up the following year which would put him at $8 in a $200 salary cap in '17. Seemed like a good investment for now.

[Cameron Giles]

I would still buy. A broken leg isn't a career ender.

[sloth8u]

id think the injury and lackluster season only discounts him even more. lockett isnt a guy that i own many shares of, but i cant imagine it would take a top 15 to get him in alot of leagues. of course there will be those die hard owners, but i think the causual lockett owner would probably move him pretty cheap.

[FiremanEd]

Now is when you should buy, not when this thread was created. His value did nothing but drop since then. Now you can actually buy at a reasonable price and profit/be rewarded relative to price paid.

[jcc6fd]

Now is when you should buy, not when this thread was created. His value did nothing but drop since then. Now you can actually buy at a reasonable price and profit/be rewarded relative to price paid.

Agree. If you were super high on him before this season now is the time to buy because the talent is still there but his value has dropped. You were going to have to overpay before this season. However I have to assume a lot of his value was situational as many thought he had a short path to being the number one target in SEA. I don't think he's going to pass Baldwin nor Graham in the next couple of years. You're likely going to have to wait longer for consistent production.

[FiremanEd]

Actually, his value went up after this thread was created. But once the season started, you would be correct, it did go down.
I posted this in May. By late August the hype was much higher than in May.

Fair, but that type of value climb isn't anything significant to hang a hat on. The thread was created in April when Lockett's value (March/April) was 43. It actually decreased the next two months down to 49 and 46, before seeing it climb right before the season to 37 and 35. A six and eight slot climb isn't much to stake a claim on, and regardless, you certainly didn't get rewarded for buying at any of those prices in 2016. Now, I'm a big Lockett fan myself, though I wasn't willing to pay those prices, but will definitely dabble when my trading opens to get him around his current prices instead (66 in December and a presume will drop a decent amount from even there based on his injury).

Going back to the start of the thread, I don't disagree with your take that Lockett has upside and I like his future (I did when he was coming out based on his play at Kansas State), but my point was that if you waited until the thread was created, you already missed the boat and were paying inflated prices. I still believe that is true, but we all get another shot at a more reasonable price if we were to still believe and be willing to invest now, though 2017 is unlikely to be the year of any reward based on recovery timelines. Perhaps 2018.

[maxhyde]

great time to buy now I think given the injury and a down season. Might even get him at near his old rookie draft position prices now mid-2nd-3rd

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I sold high on Lockett last rookie draft for 2.01 + 2.06 with no regrets. He's a talented WR, but I don't trust consistent health or targets for either him or Paul Richardson. I feel like Russell Wilson spreads the ball around like Drew Brees, and there's not a ton of opportunity there for any receiver as long as Doug Baldwin is soaking up the bulk of the targets. I've also seen comps to Antonio Brown, but Brown has 15-20 lbs on Lockett. I place him more in the JJ Nelson and Taylor Gabriel category, an explosive boom or bust flex with WR2 upside. I'd pay a mid 2nd for Lockett, maybe an early 2nd depending on who's there during the rookie draft.

[FiremanEd]

I'm no doctor so just want to confirm that it is reasonable to expect a 100% recovery from that degree of leg injury, correct? 2018 he should be back on that horse?

[btv802]

I'm no doctor so just want to confirm that it is reasonable to expect a 100% recovery from that degree of leg injury, correct? 2018 he should be back on that horse?

I hope so. I mean, look at Treadwell. He's doing just fine

[FiremanEd]

I wrote my original question more confidently than I actually am. I have concerns given the severity of his injury, but people still seem to be giving a solid price for him, and I'd like to get additional insights into this type of injury. It would definitely weigh into the purchase price I'd be willing to pay. Hoping for a Dynasty Doctor on him...

[Cameron Giles]

I wrote my original question more confidently than I actually am. I have concerns given the severity of his injury, but people still seem to be giving a solid price for him, and I'd like to get additional insights into this type of injury. It would definitely weigh into the purchase price I'd be willing to pay. Hoping for a Dynasty Doctor on him...

If it's just a broken leg, then it shouldn't be anything that matters long-term. It's not like you're going to break it again.

Lockett's injury is a freak injury and a blip on his health radar.