Player of the Day project -- Mike Williams (7/20/17)

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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby dlf_jules » Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:04 am

Goirish374 wrote:
dlf_jules wrote:Wow. I guess I underestimated the love for Elliott.
well, putting him up on this particular day is a bit like walking into the Malaria tent and saying "is it warm in here?"
No doubt, but I also figured folks would want to know (quickly) what everyone else thinks. I posted this on Twitter. It's an accurate summary.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby skip » Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:07 am

dlf_jules wrote:No doubt, but I also figured folks would want to know (quickly) what everyone else thinks. I posted this on Twitter. It's an accurate summary.
I suppose it is a matter of perspective. I've got a handful of RBs rated ahead of Elliott and own at least one on most of my teams. I don't see any reason to be crying over it. I also think people are over-estimating his impact out of the gate. Dallas potentially has a 3-headed backfield for 2016 and as much as people are in love with Elliott there are no assurances he will ever live up to the hype. Frankly, the only sad part about not owning 1.01 is the ability to trade it away today and the ransom it may bring. Someone is asking about moving Julio straight up...there isn't a running back in the NFL worth moving Julio for - much less a rookie.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby dlf_jules » Fri Apr 29, 2016 9:04 am

skip wrote:
dlf_jules wrote:No doubt, but I also figured folks would want to know (quickly) what everyone else thinks. I posted this on Twitter. It's an accurate summary.
I suppose it is a matter of perspective. I've got a handful of RBs rated ahead of Elliott and own at least one on most of my teams. I don't see any reason to be crying over it. I also think people are over-estimating his impact out of the gate. Dallas potentially has a 3-headed backfield for 2016 and as much as people are in love with Elliott there are no assurances he will ever live up to the hype. Frankly, the only sad part about not owning 1.01 is the ability to trade it away today and the ransom it may bring. Someone is asking about moving Julio straight up...there isn't a running back in the NFL worth moving Julio for - much less a rookie.
I'm only implying that even the non-1.01 owners value Zeke really, really high. When I ran the mega-poll a month ago, people said 1.01 = 1.02 + 1.10. Now they're saying 1.01 >= 1.02 + 1.03.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby maxhyde » Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:26 am

Best possible situation for the best offensive player in the draft. I think there is a pretty good chance Elliott is unlikely to ever be worth more than he is today.
I think there are just too many ways he can disappoint.
I guess if one of his 1st 4-6 games he puts up 200+ and 3 TD's his value may bump slightly ;)
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby Goirish374 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:33 am

maxhyde wrote:Best possible situation
are we sure about this?

i agree it is the conventional wisdom; i worry:

-we are just carrying forward the 2014 impression of the Dallas offensive line
-we have seen the Dallas passing game without Romo, who seems increasingly fragile
-witten is in decline and we have seen no movement to bolster the WR corp

(none of the above is meant to imply that Elliot isn't [potentially] a massive upgrade at RB. he is.)

is there a better RB situation we are overlooking? Carolina? Indianapolis? miami? these are just off the top of my head and could be terrible OLs or something, i really have no idea, just brainstorming.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby Goirish374 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:35 am

maxhyde wrote:Elliott is unlikely to ever be worth more than he is today.
i agree with this completely--his upside is already baked into his cost. he can either achieve it and maintain or fail to achieve it and decrease.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby Phaded » Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:37 am

Goirish374 wrote:
maxhyde wrote:Elliott is unlikely to ever be worth more than he is today.
i agree with this completely--his upside is already baked into his cost. he can either achieve it and maintain or fail to achieve it and decrease.
Gurley is in the top 10.

I could see that being Zeke next year.

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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby Goirish374 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:37 am

dlf_jules wrote:figured folks would want to know
i didn't mean it critically, he is a logical candidate for today.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby dlf_jules » Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:42 am

Goirish374 wrote:
maxhyde wrote:Elliott is unlikely to ever be worth more than he is today.
i agree with this completely--his upside is already baked into his cost. he can either achieve it and maintain or fail to achieve it and decrease.
Don't forget the part about scoring lots and lots of fantasy points while maintaining. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but it's worth noting that you could get three years of RB1 production and still have a 24-year-old stud RB heading into his fourth season.
Goirish374 wrote:
dlf_jules wrote:figured folks would want to know
i didn't mean it critically, he is a logical candidate for today.
I didn't take it as criticism. But even if it was, it'd be fair.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby Goirish374 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:59 am

dlf_jules wrote:Don't forget the part about scoring lots and lots of fantasy points while maintaining
oh, absolutely...and i think that's consistent with the costs we're seeing ( 1.01+++, 1.02 + 1.03 +, or valued higher than Johnson, Cooks, etc.). i don't mean to imply that he wouldn't be worth that value, just that we don't seem to have the opportunity to buy into him and let him grow into that value if he's already there.

it's interesting because we just had this discussion two year ago about OBJ. there was so much chest thumping over how he couldn't possibly fail to regress from his rookie season. i think i was on the opposite side of that one (believing he could in fact increase in value) so maybe i just have a poor memory. or a strong but inaccurate memory.

omg i am the Ryan Mallett of memory.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby dlf_jules » Fri Apr 29, 2016 1:11 pm

Goirish374 wrote:
dlf_jules wrote:Don't forget the part about scoring lots and lots of fantasy points while maintaining
oh, absolutely...and i think that's consistent with the costs we're seeing ( 1.01+++, 1.02 + 1.03 +, or valued higher than Johnson, Cooks, etc.). i don't mean to imply that he wouldn't be worth that value, just that we don't seem to have the opportunity to buy into him and let him grow into that value if he's already there.

it's interesting because we just had this discussion two year ago about OBJ. there was so much chest thumping over how he couldn't possibly fail to regress from his rookie season. i think i was on the opposite side of that one (believing he could in fact increase in value) so maybe i just have a poor memory. or a strong but inaccurate memory.

omg i am the Ryan Mallett of memory.
You might be the Tim Tebow of memory because two years ago Beckham hadn't been drafted yet.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Apr 29, 2016 1:25 pm

maxhyde wrote:Best possible situation for the best offensive player in the draft. I think there is a pretty good chance Elliott is unlikely to ever be worth more than he is today.
I think there are just too many ways he can disappoint.
I guess if one of his 1st 4-6 games he puts up 200+ and 3 TD's his value may bump slightly ;)
His value can definitely be higher. Situation might make him a Top 10-12 startup pick in some eyes now, but if he produces, we are talking Top 5-6 because of RB scarcity.

That said, I agree that if he doesn't come out guns blazing, there will be a drop off from this draft day hangover.

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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby Lotto4Life » Fri Apr 29, 2016 2:46 pm

dlf_jules wrote:I'm only implying that even the non-1.01 owners value Zeke really, really high. When I ran the mega-poll a month ago, people said 1.01 = 1.02 + 1.10. Now they're saying 1.01 >= 1.02 + 1.03.
Was that poll for this year or just in general? Because most years 1.02+1.10 would probably get it done. This year the WRs have become a bit of a mess.

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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby dlf_jules » Fri Apr 29, 2016 3:12 pm

Lotto4Life wrote:
dlf_jules wrote:I'm only implying that even the non-1.01 owners value Zeke really, really high. When I ran the mega-poll a month ago, people said 1.01 = 1.02 + 1.10. Now they're saying 1.01 >= 1.02 + 1.03.
Was that poll for this year or just in general? Because most years 1.02+1.10 would probably get it done. This year the WRs have become a bit of a mess.
This year, post-combine.
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Re: Player of the Day voting -- Ezekiel Elliott (4/29)

Postby Goirish374 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:23 pm

dlf_jules wrote:You might be the Tim Tebow of memory because two years ago Beckham hadn't been drafted yet.
no way, i remember it clearly.

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