Rookie draft with devy picks

[flexcapacitor]

Where would you fit in the current devy players in this years crop of rookie picks if you were drafting them in a rookie/devy start up draft? With all of the college players in the devy pool. Would Fournette and Chubb be the top 2 picks ahead of Elliot and Treadwell? Do you take guys from the 2018 and 2019 class later in the draft because you have to sit on them so long?

[tstafford]

I think this is a great question. Gets to the heart of whether or not immediate production matters to people - it does to me.

I'd have a very hard time passing on Elliot at the 1.01 at this point. You mention the players I'd consider - Treadwell, Fournette and Chubb (in that order for me). For me to pass on Elliot at 1.01 he'd need to go somewhere very horrible. This has happened - I think back to Gerhart going to Minny as an example. And then similarly Treadwell's situation would have to be horrible for me to pass on him.

Fournette has been a special player since before he got to LSU. (I tried to pick him in a devy league while still in HS but the rules prevented it!!) For that reason I suppose I could see taking him at 1.03 in a draft. I wouldn't fault someone for staking a claim on Fournette. It's risky however. We have seen players get injured and plummet in value several times. Or he could just have a weak season and make people wonder.

As to your question about 2018 and 2019 - yes I surely push them down in value. Devy ranking are very fluid. Players who look to be top-5 guys will end up as second and third round dynasty rookie picks. Example - Diggs was a top tier devy prospect for quite some time before falling due to injury and production issues.

[Dingram]

All of my devy leagues state the player has to draft eligible the following year in order to be drafted in my drafts. So I really don't have 1st hand experience for your question. That being said, I would I agree with what tstafford said mentioned above. The players 2 (or more) years away will fall down my list quite a bit. Trying to project a prospect 2 years away is a risky situation. Its not like trading for a 2018 1st rd pick. That pick will hold its value throughout, and gain value as it nears. The player could not even be rosterable by the time the draft rolls around.

A few highly touted devy players recently that pop into my head:
De'Runnya Wilson- This time last year was worth a mid 1st devy pick, looks to maybe be a late round selection
D'haquille Williams- see above. This guy should have come out for the 2015 draft. Would have been a highly sought after rookie pick. Returns to school, only to be kicked off the team.
Quinshad Davis- I might have been higher on him than most, but never really developed into what I thought he was going to be.
Kadeem Carey- once was a top devy rb propect
The list can go on for days

[Diti51]

All of my devy leagues state the player has to draft eligible the following year in order to be drafted in my drafts. So I really don't have 1st hand experience for your question. That being said, I would I agree with what tstafford said mentioned above. The players 2 (or more) years away will fall down my list quite a bit. Trying to project a prospect 2 years away is a risky situation. Its not like trading for a 2018 1st rd pick. That pick will hold its value throughout, and gain value as it nears. The player could not even be rosterable by the time the draft rolls around.

A few highly touted devy players recently that pop into my head:
De'Runnya Wilson- This time last year was worth a mid 1st devy pick, looks to maybe be a late round selection
D'haquille Williams- see above. This guy should have come out for the 2015 draft. Would have been a highly sought after rookie pick. Returns to school, only to be kicked off the team.
Quinshad Davis- I might have been higher on him than most, but never really developed into what I thought he was going to be.
Kadeem Carey- once was a top devy rb propect
The list can go on for days

agree with this. if drafting a devy player, I would want someone who is going to be draft eligible and available in 2017. That allows you to draft another devy player NEXT year in rookie draft while possibly getting a 2017 first round pick at steep discount. Would target JuJu, Fournette, Dalvin Cook, or Chubb if possible.

[TheChicken]

Are these Devy picks taking up an active roster spot? If so then I'd probably avoid completely and let the rest of the league over pay for them (roster size being a critical setting).

[maxhyde]

I can't imagine myself ever taking a college player over an NFL player. Elliott and probably a few other guys should probably come off the board before Fournette in all my leagues (where Fournette isn't already rostered anyway).
A college player with a major injury I think I would pass on in a startup at the price you will have to pay for him (Chubb)

[Dingram]

I can't imagine myself ever taking a college player over an NFL player. Elliott and probably a few other guys should probably come off the board before Fournette in all my leagues (where Fournette isn't already rostered anyway).
A college player with a major injury I think I would pass on in a startup at the price you will have to pay for him (Chubb)

I'm not sure if you play in any devy leagues, but there is certainly a point in a rookie draft where devy picks holds extremely more value than a rookie player. This year specifically will be a lot sooner than previous years. If you think DBooker holds more value than LFournette, than I do not think your doing it right

[maxhyde]

I play in quite a few devy leagues but in a startup taking Fournette with a mid-late 2nd startup pick is throwing season 1 in the tank and I generally try to have a somewhat competitive team out of a startup. I like building teams as much as the next guy but we aren't talking about taking late 2nd early 3rd rookie type guys in round 14.
I think Fournette is really good and I am not even that high on Elliott but one of those guys can multiply his value tremendously before next year and it isn't the college guy.
Anyway I wouldn't take Elliott with a mid-late 2nd startup either as I tend to value guys already in the league over rookies but I assume that is about where he will go

[flexcapacitor]

Are these Devy picks taking up an active roster spot? If so then I'd probably avoid completely and let the rest of the league over pay for them (roster size being a critical setting).

The devy picks wouldn't be on the active roster but on a taxi squad until their in the NFL.

[DynoScout]

Is this a startup draft or an existing league that is adding Devy via the 2016 rookie draft?

[flexcapacitor]

I think this is a great question. Gets to the heart of whether or not immediate production matters to people - it does to me.

I'd have a very hard time passing on Elliot at the 1.01 at this point. You mention the players I'd consider - Treadwell, Fournette and Chubb (in that order for me). For me to pass on Elliot at 1.01 he'd need to go somewhere very horrible. This has happened - I think back to Gerhart going to Minny as an example. And then similarly Treadwell's situation would have to be horrible for me to pass on him.

Fournette has been a special player since before he got to LSU. (I tried to pick him in a devy league while still in HS but the rules prevented it!!) For that reason I suppose I could see taking him at 1.03 in a draft. I wouldn't fault someone for staking a claim on Fournette. It's risky however. We have seen players get injured and plummet in value several times. Or he could just have a weak season and make people wonder.

As to your question about 2018 and 2019 - yes I surely push them down in value. Devy ranking are very fluid. Players who look to be top-5 guys will end up as second and third round dynasty rookie picks. Example - Diggs was a top tier devy prospect for quite some time before falling due to injury and production issues.

Yeah a lot of this makes sense, that's the order that I think they would get drafted for the top guys. It gets more difficult once you get past them. If you had to wait on Fournette and Chubb for two years would you be drafting them in the 2nd round? Where would you rank guys like Guice and Barkley in a rookie draft since you have to wait on them for a couple years? Do you think guys like Juju and Dupre will get drafted in the 2nd of the rookie draft?

[flexcapacitor]

Is this a startup draft or an existing league that is adding Devy via the 2016 rookie draft?

Start-up

[TheChicken]

Are these Devy picks taking up an active roster spot? If so then I'd probably avoid completely and let the rest of the league over pay for them (roster size being a critical setting).

The devy picks wouldn't be on the active roster but on a taxi squad until their in the NFL.

If my experience of start ups hold true then the rookies will be, IMO, over drafted. I'd also imagine the Devy players will also be over drafted. Personally I would be trying to build a competing roster (read old players!) with multiple Devy draft picks for 2017 (by trading back in the start up for Devy picks).

In answer to your initial question, I'd add Devy players that I think will be NFL ready when they beome eligible around the rookies I've ranked that I think are 'raw' and will take development in the NFL (e.g. Braxton Miller) ... Based on talent.