HOF league discussion

[ArrylT]

Although I already know I've lost - I am on pace for my 2nd Victory Point - my team is trending positive.

[nation31]

3-3

3rd most points scored

Most points scored against

[Jfever]

Trying to rebuild... and, I keep winning. Can't even stay away from the middle of the pack when I try to. Argh.

[ArrylT]

DLF HOF Week VI Results

auggiesdoggies 128.55 sloth8u 81.15

No Cook, no Fournette, no Golladay, no Crowder = no victory for sloth8u - but commendations on a strong effort nonetheless - almost got a VP!

TitusYoungsLawyer 118.50 thebeast 96.65

TYLs team could be Cohen places after a key win against thebeast powered in part by an excellent receiving duo of Sanders & Thomas.

Seventy5 155.05 maxhyde 75.30

Remember how the Brady suspension fueled the Patriots to a Super Bowl win in 2016? Well S5 is a perfect 6-0 and 24 Victory Points after the aborted attempt to skip him (clock had expired) during the rookie draft. No one make S5 mad for the rest of the season ok?

Plank 185.40 knotts4372 113.40

Another team facing Plank ends up walking the ... you get the drift ... as Adams MNF heroics were not even needed thanks to the earlier work of Thielen, Conner, Hooper and such.

Dookmariot 70.65 ericanadian 59.40

This is as you know a Victory Points league. But Wins remain an integral part of the VP structure. And there was literally no other team this week that Dookmariot could have played and gotten 2 VPs by playing. These 2 points allow Dookmariot to remain 3rd overall in VPs and with nations31s loss - give him a 2 point cushion.

DLF_JaronF 129.30 nation31 116.90

nation commented that they had 3rd most points scored but were only 3-3. Well they would have earned an additional VP had they started Humphries over the ruled-out Chris Thompson - we wont discuss that this combined with playing Prescott over Darnold would be giving them the win. Apologies to DLF Jaron for spending most of the recap not discussing their potential season saving win.

JFever 107.10 Jules 70.85

I am not sure how JFever feels about karma (considering his stances on religion re: off-topic forum) but I believe in karma. And I know how it feels to have a team winning when you're trying to rebuild. I also know that today (a) I picked up Osweiler in a league where I had no starting QB and that almost cost me the loss and (b) that as long as JFever continues to try and do his best to start his best lineup long-term karma will reward him. Just remember sometimes early draft picks are a short-term goal - and any owner who took Treadwell/Coleman/Doctson over Thomas/Boyd/Fuller will tell you that sometimes a middle pick is a better pick because you avoided the boom/bust temptations and took the safer asset.

steeveb 168.55 ArrylT 84.40

If you are the owner of steevebs 2019 1st (steeveb is not) hopefully you have stopped feeling smug over getting an early 1st - because steevebs team is starting to show playoff potential and is in the thick of things in the VP standings - its not the win over ArrylT that is impressive but rather his 4th straight 100+ point performance and 2nd 140+ result.

[ArrylT]

DLF HOF Standings Update

Name - W/L Record - Victory Points* - Points Scored - Points Allowed

Blue

DLF_JaronF - 4-2 - 14 - 691.95 - 587.10
JFever - 4-2 - 12 - 582.30 - 575.70
ericanadian - 1-5 - 2 - 399.60 - 593.90
ArrylT - 0-6 - 2 - 513.65 - 752.20

Black

Dookmariot - 5-1 - 17 - 674.65 - 539.85
nation31 - 3-3 - 15 - 785.75 - 786.25
steeveb - 2-4 - 11 - 707.40 - 618.60
Jules - 3-3 - 9 - 528.40 - 591.75

White

Plank - 5-1 - 21 - 907.15 - 737.75
thebeast - 3-3 - 15 - 732.50 - 700.45
maxhyde - 4-2 - 632.70 - 722.60
sloth8u - 0-6 - 495.25 - 731.65

Green

Seventy5 - 6-0 - 24 - 952.20 - 613.25
TitusYoungsLawyer - 3-3 - 12 - 672.70 - 702.55
knotts4372 - 3-3 - 11 - 648.75 - 660.40
auggiedoggies - 2-4 - 11 - 685.05 - 696.00

[Jfever]

Thanks for all the updates ArrylT. I always look forward to reading your little snipits and notes. Well done sir! I happen to be the owner of steeveb's future 1st. I'm watching it and my own future first drop in value each week... barf. As far as Karma goes, well, yeah, in a way I guess I do buy into it a little. Kind of the whole mantra of what goes around comes around type thing / and doing the right thing even when no one is looking - because for no other reason than - it's the right thing to do. But, for clarification sake, you know how I like to do this.... Karma is a teaching of Buddha and a direct derivative of the Hindu religion.
kar·ma
noun
(in Hinduism and Buddhism) the sum of a person's actions in this and previous states of existence, viewed as deciding their fate in future existences. Just funny how so many that would be totally against Hinduism, choose a part of it to agree with, and assume it comes from some other more "domestic version" of a religion. Classic case of cherry pickin. Ok ok ok.... I'll stop. This isn't the time or the place. I know. I know. I apologize. No intent to derail our HOF thread.

Keep up the great work AArylT. I appreciate it. I'm sure others do as well. Congrats to our winners. There are a few really tough teams battling it out. Impressive ! The race for who earns the 1.01 is quite interesting as well!

Peace.

[Plank]

^ same goes for me ArrylT, I also log in especially for the snippets .. also you should know everytime I hear, Walk the .. I speak aloud with a "har har har" !

[ArrylT]

Glad you guys enjoy - thnx for the comments.

[ArrylT]

I'll be posting my Week VII matchups shortly - but first a PSA about Yeldon.

[ArrylT]

T.J. Yeldon thoughts for Rebuilding teams:

I am making these thoughts public because

(a) maybe a fellow Yeldon owner in another league will read and get something out of it

(b) I think Yeldon, like others before him, and like James Conner this season, are on the cusp of that debate of current production vs. future value.

(c) it ensures contending owners do not waste their time trying to buy him with late 3rds

-----

Scroll to the end if all you want is the quick valuation. Its bolded and underlined.

-----

Anyways in regard to Yeldon I have had some interest in him from owners.

Before the season, as part of my total overhaul and rebuild of my roster, I had been looking for a top 8 2nd round pick*, and an upside guy** - and actually came close to a deal with a team - but like I said in my review of my trades so far "Happy to hold onto him long term and grateful I didnt conclude deal early in Sept that would have sent Yeldon for what I thought was an early 2nd (but is now likely a late 2nd aka 3rd in a 12 teamer). "

When doing a rebuild it is important to determine who are assets you want as foundational pieces, who you can hold onto until the right deal, and who you need to move sooner than later. Oh and yeah - guys you can just cut off your roster because the roster spot holds more value that the guy clogging it.

It is also important to have an unbiased eye on how much value to put on a future pick (especially when late) from a team. If you mis-judge a pick value, especially on a team in a larger league (16+) what you thought would be a high pick could turn out to be almost a 4th round pick.

I think a lot of us get impatient at times - and when in conjunction with the feeling you've owned a guy forever - sometimes you get that "i NEED to move this guy before the value bursts" feeling.

Check your players age before you follow through. And revisit your draft notes. Whether it is TJ Yeldon, Tyler Boyd, Nelson Agholor or Eric Ebron. Re-visit WHY you believed in this player in the first place - remember that 24-25 is NOT 29-30 - and if you still feel the need to move the guy then & only then move him for whatever the market tells you that you can get versus what you believe he is worth to your team long-term.

So, I actually felt relieved that the early season deal fell through - as circumstances showed that the teams pick would likely end up being much later than originally anticipated, and the reminder that short-term Yeldon simply as a handcuff to Fournette should have good value.***

Anyways after the season started and Fournette went down so quickly I upped my valuation - and after watching Yeldon I felt reminded long term he will likely always have a safe floor even if / when he moves to a new team.

Why?

The way I see it Yeldons floor - even if he sticks in Jax with Fournette - for the next few years is like a Riddick or D. Lewis - but with RB1 upside and youth (when given opportunity such as this season) and no injury history that a Lewis has or inside the tackles concern that Riddick has. Sort of a young Danny Woodhead perhaps. Or Darren Sproles, or Pierre Thomas. Or Duke Johnson or James White.

Now none of these names were bellcow backs.

But what they ARE is guys with enough receiving prowess that even when they are not getting carries they remain safe flex plays and have solid floors. But once you add carries to the mix, they instantly become high end RB2s / low end RB1s.

Which is exactly what Yeldon has been doing while Fournette. And Yeldon, imho, has solid enough rushing credentials, that he is on the high end of this 'tier' of jack-of-all-trade running backs.

So basically - if YOU are an owner of a rebuild - and are trying to decide on whether to move Yeldon or not - if you cannot get at least a top 18 and preferably a top 15 rookie pick for him - then why sell?

Fournette comes back - he'll still have that safe receiving role. Fournette gets injured again - he goes back to being a low end RB1 high end RB2. In the future he may even get the chance to move to a team where he gets a more featured role.

So Owners looking to move Yeldon in their leagues should hold out for a 1st.

PPR RB #9 right now

I agree that owners are unlikely to pay a 1st for him - even a late 1 - but that is what it is going to take - I can afford to hold as he just turned 25 so it is not like he is 30 and on last legs. And so should you****.

------------------------------------------------------

* - Reminder that a top 8 2nd round pick in a 16 team league with a 1.17 toilet bowl selection is between Pick 18-24 and as such would have been a late 2nd in a typical 12 team ppr league.

** - upside guys in my opinion are usually young guys people feel are worth more than a random late pick but are quite hard to actually sell for that price most times.

*** - obviously a lot of times handcuffs to elite RBs turn out out to be useless. This is where it is crucial that your original take/tape on the player comes into play. If the guy is someone you feel is JAG (aka average) then yeah he is situational value at best and situations can change as easily as week-to-week. However if the guy is one you believe in the talent enough - then he should produce at least decent when given the chance (Alfred Blue or Bilal Powell for example).

**** - the only situation I can think of where you' may be smart to move Yeldon for less than a top 18 pick would be a situation where he is actually putting your team in that murky middle range and instead of a top 4 pick you are getting a 5-9 range pick.

[ArrylT]

DLF HOF Week VII Matchups

nation31 vs. knotts4372

As nation31 is on the cusp of playoff contention here, a win by his opponent might have him feeling like that guy is very knotty.

Dookmariot vs. Seventy5

Old school owners will know who the best player to ever wear #75 was. Lets see if anyone can showcase their knowledge. Meanwhile as great as some feel John Wayne was, if Dookmariot wins this week we will have to crown him the real "Dook".

JFever vs. thebeast

Can the rebuilder turned contender defeat the contender turned possible pretender?

TitusYoungsLawyer vs. steeveb

One of the questions we here in DLF HOF are asked most frequently is "What is more likely, Titus Youngs lawyer getting him off or TYL making the playoffs". A win by steeveb will put that answer squarely in the former category rather than the latter.

auggiedoggies vs. Jules

Jules is like that NFL team you thought would make for great TNF or MNF showcasing, and then you realized half way through the season that you need to convince the NFL to change games. You'll likely have more fun watching Eli Manning than this auggiedoggies vs. Jules matchup ...

maxhyde vs. DLF_JaronF

Both teams have 14 VPs and 4-2 records. If this was a game of chicken which team do you think would blink first?

Plank vs. ericanadian

I just recently noticed that Planks twitter handle is @PlankMelody - so that makes me wonder if they hum a tune, and what that tune might be, whenever they force their opponent to walk the plank. Either way we already know ericanadians team is all wet (aka a hot mess).

ArrylT vs. sloth8u

ArrylTs team has been trending up as of late, so do not be surprised if they pull a win off the slowest team since:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0a ... lowest-RBs

[thebeast]

T.J. Yeldon thoughts for Rebuilding teams:

I am making these thoughts public because

(a) maybe a fellow Yeldon owner in another league will read and get something out of it

(b) I think Yeldon, like others before him, and like James Conner this season, are on the cusp of that debate of current production vs. future value.

(c) it ensures contending owners do not waste their time trying to buy him with late 3rds

-----

Scroll to the end if all you want is the quick valuation. Its bolded and underlined.

-----

Anyways in regard to Yeldon I have had some interest in him from owners.

Before the season, as part of my total overhaul and rebuild of my roster, I had been looking for a top 8 2nd round pick*, and an upside guy** - and actually came close to a deal with a team - but like I said in my review of my trades so far "Happy to hold onto him long term and grateful I didnt conclude deal early in Sept that would have sent Yeldon for what I thought was an early 2nd (but is now likely a late 2nd aka 3rd in a 12 teamer). "

When doing a rebuild it is important to determine who are assets you want as foundational pieces, who you can hold onto until the right deal, and who you need to move sooner than later. Oh and yeah - guys you can just cut off your roster because the roster spot holds more value that the guy clogging it.

It is also important to have an unbiased eye on how much value to put on a future pick (especially when late) from a team. If you mis-judge a pick value, especially on a team in a larger league (16+) what you thought would be a high pick could turn out to be almost a 4th round pick.

I think a lot of us get impatient at times - and when in conjunction with the feeling you've owned a guy forever - sometimes you get that "i NEED to move this guy before the value bursts" feeling.

Check your players age before you follow through. And revisit your draft notes. Whether it is TJ Yeldon, Tyler Boyd, Nelson Agholor or Eric Ebron. Re-visit WHY you believed in this player in the first place - remember that 24-25 is NOT 29-30 - and if you still feel the need to move the guy then & only then move him for whatever the market tells you that you can get versus what you believe he is worth to your team long-term.

So, I actually felt relieved that the early season deal fell through - as circumstances showed that the teams pick would likely end up being much later than originally anticipated, and the reminder that short-term Yeldon simply as a handcuff to Fournette should have good value.***

Anyways after the season started and Fournette went down so quickly I upped my valuation - and after watching Yeldon I felt reminded long term he will likely always have a safe floor even if / when he moves to a new team.

Why?

The way I see it Yeldons floor - even if he sticks in Jax with Fournette - for the next few years is like a Riddick or D. Lewis - but with RB1 upside and youth (when given opportunity such as this season) and no injury history that a Lewis has or inside the tackles concern that Riddick has. Sort of a young Danny Woodhead perhaps. Or Darren Sproles, or Pierre Thomas. Or Duke Johnson or James White.

Now none of these names were bellcow backs.

But what they ARE is guys with enough receiving prowess that even when they are not getting carries they remain safe flex plays and have solid floors. But once you add carries to the mix, they instantly become high end RB2s / low end RB1s.

Which is exactly what Yeldon has been doing while Fournette. And Yeldon, imho, has solid enough rushing credentials, that he is on the high end of this 'tier' of jack-of-all-trade running backs.

So basically - if YOU are an owner of a rebuild - and are trying to decide on whether to move Yeldon or not - if you cannot get at least a top 18 and preferably a top 15 rookie pick for him - then why sell?

Fournette comes back - he'll still have that safe receiving role. Fournette gets injured again - he goes back to being a low end RB1 high end RB2. In the future he may even get the chance to move to a team where he gets a more featured role.

So Owners looking to move Yeldon in their leagues should hold out for a 1st.

PPR RB #9 right now

I agree that owners are unlikely to pay a 1st for him - even a late 1 - but that is what it is going to take - I can afford to hold as he just turned 25 so it is not like he is 30 and on last legs. And so should you****.

------------------------------------------------------

* - Reminder that a top 8 2nd round pick in a 16 team league with a 1.17 toilet bowl selection is between Pick 18-24 and as such would have been a late 2nd in a typical 12 team ppr league.

** - upside guys in my opinion are usually young guys people feel are worth more than a random late pick but are quite hard to actually sell for that price most times.

*** - obviously a lot of times handcuffs to elite RBs turn out out to be useless. This is where it is crucial that your original take/tape on the player comes into play. If the guy is someone you feel is JAG (aka average) then yeah he is situational value at best and situations can change as easily as week-to-week. However if the guy is one you believe in the talent enough - then he should produce at least decent when given the chance (Alfred Blue or Bilal Powell for example).

**** - the only situation I can think of where you' may be smart to move Yeldon for less than a top 18 pick would be a situation where he is actually putting your team in that murky middle range and instead of a top 4 pick you are getting a 5-9 range pick.

He is only worth a late first when Fournette is out, which is the problem with your conclusion. I've seen this thinking end up poorly for owners of these guys time and again. Ben Tate comes to mind, and more recently Tevin Coleman. Owners were convinced that Coleman would take the job from Freeman, then he just had to wait until Freeman moved on in FA, now it's just hold until Coleman moves on, yet in the meantime, he's being outplayed by a rookie... My point is not that Yeldon is Coleman, but that the wait and see approach rarely works. Sell a career handcuff for all you can get when his value is at its highest, which is where Yeldons value is right now (since Fournette was drafted). I would suggest owners move Yeldon for pick 20 or earlier. I would rather take a shot on getting a guy who is a weekly starter for my team and end up with a complete bust vs having a guy who comes in and out of relevance due to injury who is otherwise too volatile to start except in the deepest of leagues.

[Dookmarriot]

Yeah, I like Yeldon a lot and own him in most of my leagues, but the time to buy him was before Fournette went gimpy (which I did for peanuts in most cases). His price is now beyond where I'd feel comfortable paying up, given that Fournette could be back soon, the uncertainty over where he'll be next year, and his own mounting injuries.

[ArrylT]

He is only worth a late first when Fournette is out, which is the problem with your conclusion. I've seen this thinking end up poorly for owners of these guys time and again. Ben Tate comes to mind, and more recently Tevin Coleman. Owners were convinced that Coleman would take the job from Freeman, then he just had to wait until Freeman moved on in FA, now it's just hold until Coleman moves on, yet in the meantime, he's being outplayed by a rookie... My point is not that Yeldon is Coleman, but that the wait and see approach rarely works. Sell a career handcuff for all you can get when his value is at its highest, which is where Yeldons value is right now (since Fournette was drafted). I would suggest owners move Yeldon for pick 20 or earlier. I would rather take a shot on getting a guy who is a weekly starter for my team and end up with a complete bust vs having a guy who comes in and out of relevance due to injury who is otherwise too volatile to start except in the deepest of leagues.

However I am not talking about every player, so that does not apply here. If you do not believe in a player long-term, then yeah an owner should get what they can for a player. This really applies only to guys who are

(a) young
(b) had a high draft pedigree (for RBs a 2nd Round draft pick is pretty high)
(c) have actually done something over their first few years.
(d) that you believe in

If you did not believe in Yeldon you either (a) do not own him right now or (b) picked him up cheaply enough off of an impatient owner that you can sell and make a profit or (c) got him as part of an orphan. But rather if you as an owner believe in Yeldon - and that is who I am talking to - the owners who actually believe in Yeldon (or Coleman or Mike Williams or whomever their young guy that has produced - just not at the level the consensus impatient owner requires) - then this is where it applies. Ergo the title of my post.

No dynasty approach works perfectly - but what does NOT work - is selling low on guys you believe in to get another guy, who you'd have to sell even lower on in 2-3 years.

I think it is a bad idea if you draft a player with a draft pick, they actually produce something when they get even limited opportunities, and then you move the guy

Now if you see a guy in the 2nd round of a rookie draft that you believe in more than you do in your share of Coleman/Yeldon then go right ahead and trade that player for the rookie you believe in. But to sell a player with past production and future opportunities for a good deal less than you originally spent is not good dynasty imho.

Like I said - if you are at the draft itself - and you see a guy you believe in - for example I sold Parker in a 2017 rookie draft to draft JuJu Smith-Schuster - that is a good move. Selling a guy while you are in a rebuild that is young and you believe in for a random 2nd does not usually help your team.

That is exactly how long-term you bleed value. Draft a pedigree guy you believe in at 1.07-1.10 - 2-3 years go by and he has had production, but is not a world beater or proven to be a locked starter on your team and then you sell for a late 2nd - the odds the new guy you take randomly will actually even make it as far as the guy you drafted a couple of years ago is less than the odds the guy you own will repeat his production.

Maybe you get lucky - but you can also get lucky on later picks if you do your homework and improve your odds - and you can get those picks without selling out assets who could easily have long-term production value on your roster.

I know because I have 6 shares of Yeldon on teams where I held him for a couple of years and now he is a part of the reason why that team is 5-1 or 6-0. I know this method works - because it has worked for my teams time & time again. It is exactly why I am not selling Landry to owners in DLF HOF for a late 1st - because Landry (like Yeldon) is young enough and will be around to help your/my team when you come out the other side of the rebuild.

Another example Tevin Coleman was mentioned. I personally am not that high on Coleman and given a choice between Yeldon or Coleman, I'd take Yeldon every day. Despite that - I would easily argue Coleman could/should be worth a late 1st to the owners that believe in him. I own like 1 Coleman share amongst all my rosters and I know I would not sell Coleman - despite not being uber high on the guy - for less than an early 2nd if I was in a rebuild.

I repeat - this is for rebuilding owners who believe in their guy(s). He is young, he will get other opportunities beyond this current one. Guys with a good draft pedigree and who actually produce at the NFL level get multiple chances.

Yes you have to be willing to swing & miss on players - because home runs do happen. But you do not swing on pitches that are obvious balls out of the zone - that is an easy way to strike out when you could have at least gotten on base and put yourself in scoring position. Owning Yeldon or a Coleman or whomever you BELIEVE in - will put you in that position. Selling for less than they are worth is not.

And obviously contenders will tell you that he is only worth X because they are trying to buy him off you.

[ArrylT]

Yeah, I like Yeldon a lot and own him in most of my leagues, but the time to buy him was before Fournette went gimpy (which I did for peanuts in most cases). His price is now beyond where I'd feel comfortable paying up, given that Fournette could be back soon, the uncertainty over where he'll be next year, and his own mounting injuries.

Because owners are too impatient and kudos for capitalizing. All players get injuries - I believe Ebron was listed with 4 last week. Yeldons injuries (so far) are not keeping him out of the lineup.