When to draft luck?

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
Goddard
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 18428
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:21 am

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby Goddard » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:12 am

I'm not sure I'd take Luck that early, but if any of the other top 3-4 QBs are available, I'd take them. I think you might still be able to get him in the 5th if you wait another round.

User avatar
Kramer
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2812
Joined: Mon May 23, 2016 5:07 pm

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby Kramer » Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:20 pm

A better question for everyone. When would you draft Luck in a SF/2QB startup?

Personally, he's still pretty young (28) and even if he were to miss another year (don't see that happening just yet), I expect him to figure it out medically eventually. Therefore, I would have no problem taking him starting in the late 2nd round (let's assume 12 team league). Would love to hear other thoughts on it though.
10 team SF .5ppr-QB,2RB,2WR,TE,Flex,SF,K,Def (30 spots)
QB: Winston,Dak,Dalton,Foles
RB: Fournette,Barkley,Mixon,Guice,Chubb,Foreman,Collins,Joe Williams,Yeldon,Scarborough
WR: Nuk,Davis,CoCo,JMatt,Doctson,Treadwell,Tyrell,Richardson
TE: Ertz,Eifert,Hooper,Everett,Shaheen,Burton,Butt

10 team SF PPR-QB,2RB,3WR,2TE,Flex,SF,2IDP,K,Def (35 spots)
QB: Rodgers,Wilson,Luck, Smith
RB: Fournette,McCoy,Mixon,Foreman,Martin,Powell,Conner,Collins
WR: Nuk,Hilton,Alshon,ARob,Davis,Tate,Gordon,MikeWilliams,Doctson,Kupp,Godwin
TE: Graham,Olsen,Henry,Howard,Everett,Kittle,Burton,Gathers
IDP: Bowmann,Burfict,Lee

28 team PPR SF, x2 copy, 0.2 PPC, 1.5PPR for TE - 1QB/1RB/1WR/1TE/5Flex/1SF (22+4IR+6Taxi)
QB: Wentz,Luck,Brissett
RB: Bell,Dixon,Gillislee,AP,Joe Williams,Perkins,Kelley
WR: Nuk,Hilton,ARob,Watkins,Decker
TE: Howard,Reed,Brate

wingnutty
Starter
Starter
Posts: 536
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:43 pm

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby wingnutty » Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:48 pm

I think Luck in the late 2nd early 3rd of a superflex is the right amount of gamble for me personally. If he returns to full form he's a steal at that price.

greenbird
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:27 am

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby greenbird » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:34 am

Round 10 for Luck in SF. I wouldn't waste my time in 1qb league

User avatar
Tvols
Starter
Starter
Posts: 603
Joined: Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:11 am
Location: TN

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby Tvols » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:37 am

Round 6 would be my target and in sf I would look at rd 3 that way there is some built in value

User avatar
thebeast
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4619
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 6:40 pm

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby thebeast » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:44 am

wingnutty wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:48 pm
I think Luck in the late 2nd early 3rd of a superflex is the right amount of gamble for me personally. If he returns to full form he's a steal at that price.
And if he doesn’t then you’ve wasted a premium pick. He hasn’t even resumed throwing yet. I’m surprised people aren’t more concerned about a guy whose living is throwing a football but hasn’t been cleared to do that in over a year. I’d let someone else take the risk. It’s certainl possible that he will start the season and everything will be just fine, but I think it’s just as likely he ends up reinjuring the shoulder and ends up retiring early.
2017 Champion - DLF Hall of Fame League - 16 Team | 1 PPR | 1QB-2WR/2RB/1TE/2FL

User avatar
Ghosted
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1040
Joined: Wed Jan 07, 2015 1:54 am

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby Ghosted » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:06 am

I recently took him in the mid 2nd in a SF. I'll admit though that I'm less risk-averse than most, but I was going for the upside play (which I typically like to do it start-ups).
Team 1 High stakes 12 team PPR 1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex
Q M. Mariota | J. Garoppolo
R L. Bell | A. Jones | Ja. Williams
W O. Beckham | A.J. Green | J. Landry | D. Thomas | M.Evans | L. Fitzgerald | M. Williams | B. Perriman | G. Allison
T R. Gronkowski | G. Kittle | J. Smith

'18 1.1, 1.9

Team 2 Team Name Coogan's Cup 94 Team PPR 1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 Flex
Q A. Rodgers | C. Wentz | Jaws (the shark, not QB) | 30 year old Tom Brady | Shane Falco/Johnny Utah hybrid
R L. Bell | T. Gurley | D. Johnson | Zeke | B. Sanders | A faster Jim Brown | GoT's Ice Dragon | Batman | Braveheart
W OBJ | Nuk | 6'6 Jerry Rice | Randy Moss vs the Cowboys on thxgiving | Spider-Man | The sticky hand kid from the Little Giants | The Flash
T Gronk | Kellen Winslow | Godzilla | Mike Ditka | What Vernon Davis should have been
K S. Gostkowski | Chuck Norris | Morten Anderson kicking from The Karate Kid's "crane" stance
DST '85 Bears/'00 Ravens super-hybrid
'18 1.1 - 1.94

CK_
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 330
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 9:20 pm

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby CK_ » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:44 am

Where is Garoppolo being drafted in 1qb? I assume he is inflated due to his recent contract. He seems like a better buy right now. Luck is a very smart guy and is being devalued by way too many. He knows the best path to his success and that is a QB1 in the NFL. Maybe you have the chance of snagging Jimmy G in the 7/8th and then grabbing Luck in the 8/9th. I would always grab a stud QB a round earlier in the later rounds than their ADP suggests. There is literally no value in grabbing a QB in the 3rd to 4th rounds. So much value and top tier QBness can be had in rounds 7-10. Romo 13/14, Cam 15, Ryan 16, and Wentz 17.

I personally can't wait to have Garoppolo and Luck for next year. Keep on devalueing cause ill keep on scooping up studs.
14 Team .5 PPR Return yards
QB: Luck, Mariota, Mayfield
RB: Elliot, Mixon, Collins, Guice, Ekeler
WR: C. Davis, Gordon, Lockett, M. Williams, Godwin, Doctson, John Brown, Tre'Quan Smith
TE: Gronk, Engram, Burton
K: Gostkowski
D/ST: Jax

User avatar
thebeast
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4619
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 6:40 pm

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby thebeast » Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:40 pm

CK_ wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:44 am
Where is Garoppolo being drafted in 1qb? I assume he is inflated due to his recent contract. He seems like a better buy right now. Luck is a very smart guy and is being devalued by way too many. He knows the best path to his success and that is a QB1 in the NFL. Maybe you have the chance of snagging Jimmy G in the 7/8th and then grabbing Luck in the 8/9th. I would always grab a stud QB a round earlier in the later rounds than their ADP suggests. There is literally no value in grabbing a QB in the 3rd to 4th rounds. So much value and top tier QBness can be had in rounds 7-10. Romo 13/14, Cam 15, Ryan 16, and Wentz 17.

I personally can't wait to have Garoppolo and Luck for next year. Keep on devalueing cause ill keep on scooping up studs.
Hmmm, Romo in the 13/14th seems a little early to me.
2017 Champion - DLF Hall of Fame League - 16 Team | 1 PPR | 1QB-2WR/2RB/1TE/2FL

Life of Pablo
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 248
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:24 am

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby Life of Pablo » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:32 pm

Interesting debate on paying top dollar for 1 stud QB vs buying 2+ reliable QBs for cheap... in my opinion I think it's very league-dependent and maybe worth being its own topic in a new thread.

There's a lot of value in a "set and forget" QB that goes underappreciated by many imo... especially in smaller leagues like mine, with Wilson on my team I had the luxury of going almost the full year with only 1 QB on my roster... which just frees up at least 1 roster spot (if not more) for some lottery tickets. I'm the only person in my 10-team league that currently has only 1 QB, while five teams have 3+ QB's (two of those teams have 4!!!) and not so coincidentally I don't think any of those teams have a single valuable RB/WR on their bench... and then they curse the fantasy gods for their "bad injury luck" when it's just an inevitable occurrence that should be prepared for. Instead they're foolishly crossing their fingers that their team is somehow immune to it. Like, you seriously thought all your starters would just play all 16 games like it's no big deal? Obviously that injury stuff can happen to QB's too as we saw this year, but it's nowhere near the same level of risk.

Anyway, I'm ranting and getting off-topic as a lot of that is irrelevant to my opinion on Luck lol. I personally would avoid Luck at this point but I wouldn't blame others for chasing that ceiling he may still have. I just think it's unlikely he reaches that ceiling, while it's very possible he just never again reaches that "elite" value that everyone wants from him. Though to be fair, I've always been a little low on him his whole career relative to the rest of the community.
10-team standard, 18-man rosters (plus K/DEF)
1 QB | 2 RB | 2 WR | 1 TE | 1 FLEX | 1 K | 1 DEF

QB: Dangeruss, Fitzmagic
RB: Gurley, DJ, Bell, Breida, Chubb, Foreman
WR: Nuk, AJG, KAllen, Evans, Diggs, ARob, Watkins, Gallup
TE: Gronk, Burton
K: Gostkowski
DEF: (stream)
Picks: All 2019+ picks

last updated --- after Week 2, 2018

CK_
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 330
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 9:20 pm

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby CK_ » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:07 pm

thebeast wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:40 pm
CK_ wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:44 am
Where is Garoppolo being drafted in 1qb? I assume he is inflated due to his recent contract. He seems like a better buy right now. Luck is a very smart guy and is being devalued by way too many. He knows the best path to his success and that is a QB1 in the NFL. Maybe you have the chance of snagging Jimmy G in the 7/8th and then grabbing Luck in the 8/9th. I would always grab a stud QB a round earlier in the later rounds than their ADP suggests. There is literally no value in grabbing a QB in the 3rd to 4th rounds. So much value and top tier QBness can be had in rounds 7-10. Romo 13/14, Cam 15, Ryan 16, and Wentz 17.

I personally can't wait to have Garoppolo and Luck for next year. Keep on devalueing cause ill keep on scooping up studs.
Hmmm, Romo in the 13/14th seems a little early to me.
Apologies I meant those years those QBs were easy to get in rounds 7-10. I get the confusion though. Cmon Romo in the 13th is a steal! 😂
14 Team .5 PPR Return yards
QB: Luck, Mariota, Mayfield
RB: Elliot, Mixon, Collins, Guice, Ekeler
WR: C. Davis, Gordon, Lockett, M. Williams, Godwin, Doctson, John Brown, Tre'Quan Smith
TE: Gronk, Engram, Burton
K: Gostkowski
D/ST: Jax

CK_
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 330
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 9:20 pm

Re: When to draft luck?

Postby CK_ » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:13 pm

It's interesting reading stuff about top flight QBs and obtaining them in the early rounds when it is possible to get set it and forget it QBs in much later rounds that are margins of a point off from the top flight ones you are obtaining way earlier. Crap Brady has been going in later rounds for awhile now and is not getting the respect he deserves from Dynasty just because he's a little older than Brees but Brees seem to had been getting that top flight treatment up till last year, maybe this year.
14 Team .5 PPR Return yards
QB: Luck, Mariota, Mayfield
RB: Elliot, Mixon, Collins, Guice, Ekeler
WR: C. Davis, Gordon, Lockett, M. Williams, Godwin, Doctson, John Brown, Tre'Quan Smith
TE: Gronk, Engram, Burton
K: Gostkowski
D/ST: Jax


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 4tdsIn1game4PolkHigh, bwhauf, Donny Wristwatch, Forza_Azzurri, jcc6fd, mlee2587, Vcize and 11 guests