Diggs value

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Oddball456
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Re: Diggs value

Postby Oddball456 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:03 am

Reljac wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:40 am
Sou1Ca1iber wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:30 pm
The Diggs hate in this thread by a few is almost comical.
I don't hate Diggs, but it is comical to insist that a guy who was only better than a league average guy in 4 games out of a whole season was someone very helpful to a last year team. I like Diggs going forward and he looked the part on Monday, but Adam Theilen also looked the part against the Saints Defense, as did Kyle Rudolph and Dalvin Cook.

In terms of guys that were helpful last year? I picked up Rishad Matthews off waivers.. He scored double digits in 2 more game than Diggs did last year. He also scored at least 8 points in 10 of 16 games. Diggs scored more than 8 points in exactly 6 games last year.

Rishad Matthews off of free agency was WAY more helpful than Diggs to winning in 2016.

Most leagues are PPR so I will use that scoring and I left out week 17 as most leagues do not use week 17. Maybe I missed it somewhere what the "league average guy" score is. Here is Diggs scoring in 2016 per game:

Week Total FPts
1 17.2
2 33.2
3 8
4 9.6
7 3.8
8 21.6
9 22.2
10 29.4
11 9.7
13 13.9
14 8.5
15 3.3
16 12.9

So points per week:
0-10 = 6 games (46%)
10-20 = 3 games (23%)
20+ = 4 games (31%)

So over 50% of the games Diggs played he was over 10 points, and almost a 1/3 were over 20 points.

For the comparison between Diggs and Rishad Matthews, it truly is comical to say Matthews was "WAY more helpful".
Week Diggs Matthews Difference
1 17.2 5.6 11.6
2 33.2 8 25.2
3 8 6.2 1.8
4 9.6 10.2 -0.6
5 DNP 13.2 -13.2
6 Bye 16 -16
7 3.8 7.7 -3.9
8 21.6 13.8 7.8
9 22.2 24.3 -2.1
10 29.4 15.3 14.1
11 9.7 21.2 -11.5
12 DNP 15.4 -15.4
13 13.9 Bye 13.9
14 8.5 3.6 4.9
15 3.3 14.5 -11.2
16 12.9 12.1 0.8
Totals 193.3 187.1 6.2
Formatting is off but here is the breakdown:
Games played: Diggs = 13 Matthews = 15
Total Points Scored: Diggs = 193.3 Matthews = 187.1
PPG: Diggs = 14.9 Matthews = 12.5
Number of weeks Diggs outscored Matthews in weeks they both played: 7 out of 12 (58%)

I am not sure how "Rishad Matthews off of free agency was WAY more helpful than Diggs to winning in 2016." Matthews had a worse PPG, would have given a lower score than Diggs on 58% of the weeks both played, and given less points overall to your team, especially when you consider the 2 weeks he didn't play (not counting the bye) you at least knew he was out and could plug someone else in.

Just to be clear: Even if you left Diggs in your line up the 2 weeks he DNP, he STILL would have given your team more points than all 15 games of Matthews in your line-up.

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Re: Diggs value

Postby JFever » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:12 am

The logic and rationale of even bringing up Matthews in the first place was your mistake. It isn't relevant in terms of Diggs value, and it is rather silly to compare the two players in a dynasty context. Your reasoning for disliking Diggs - based off of his cool stretch that you say hurt your team - is the problem I believe. To each their own though. I'm not offended, and I hope I didn't offend you.
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Re: Diggs value

Postby Phaded » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:46 am

10 points in PPR is a very low floor and somewhat of an arbitrary number to use to prove consistency or value.

I mean, it is only 5 receptions for 50 yards at the end of the day.

In week 1 of this year - 40 WRs put up 10 or more points, just to put it in perspective. That literally brings you into WR4 territory (assuming 12 team league).

At quick glance - 48 WRs averaged at least 10 PPG last year and that is not including averaging PPG of injured players.

If a player has a good chunk of games below 10 points in PPR; that to me is something I personally do not want.

10 points is a bad benchmark, basically.
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Re: Diggs value

Postby rubber_duck » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:55 am

JFever wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:36 am
Good morning all.

As I read through this thread it occurs to me that - Its as if some don't "Watch" football games. Rather, it seems to me - they focus on only production and stat lines - while ignoring the cause / effect of said production or lack of it. Diggs possesses the "it" factor and he is simply electric. I'm in 6 dynasty leagues and only own him in one. I wish I had him in all. I love watching him play. He passes the eye test with flying colors. I'll add - Diggs dynasty value is not the same as R.Matthews and it isn't remotely close yet, it was mentioned that Matthews outscored Diggs in a streak of an arbitrary (to NFL football) sample size. If you are playing redraft sure, they are closer in value, but, this is a dynasty discussion. The opinions here by a few seem to be lacking some critical pieces of understanding that are important in dynasty formats.

Lets please keep in mind that we the owners are in charge of our weekly line ups. If you as an owner / manager of your team are starting any player that is dinged up or is slumping for whatever reason, it's on you and how you put together your options withiin your roster. Also, very rarely does a single low performing player cost anyone any single match up. Rather it is typically a combination of multiple lower performing players that cost us owners wins. It basically rarely is as simple as X player had a bad week so I lost. That is an oversimplified take and its a mistake to think of results that way. Bottom line; Diggs is a great talent, is young, has a great catch %, runs great routes, has terrific body control, is aggressive to the ball, high points contested balls, and iis clean off the field, and is clearly trending in the right direction. He has all the tools! AND those tools are translating into increased production and performance over time. As stated above, there are ebbs and flows, ups and downs for all players all the time. He isn't immune to those, just as Julio, AJG, Dez, Evans, Cooper, etc are not.

The time to buy him at a buyer friendly price has passed. He is now a low end wr1, high end wr2 that is trending up. His statistics, targets, and production concretely back that up. Anyone that watches football has seen his growth and improved play over time. Very few informed owners would part with him for a single future 1st. You'll need to now pony up at least a couple mid 1sts, or something to the effect of a decent wr2 along with a 1st, or some combination of startable rb and pick, etc. Continually going on about how "injury prone" he is or how "streaky" he is, in my opinion, shows a general lack of understanding of fantasy football and how things go. But, opinions are opinions and different takes on players is frankly what makes discussions on these forums interesting.
Quoting entire long messages isn't my usual thing, but I like this one. This post brought some calm, rational discussion back to this thread. :clap:

The topic was Diggs' Value, I fully agree that 2 1st round rookie picks would be fair. Although, I would be excited to get him at that price. The only concern I see with Diggs is the potential for injury, and his past injuries are not ones that I am overly concerned about going forward. Concerned? Yes, but not losing sleep at night.

Sammy Watkins is in the same conversation, where my only concern about him is injuries. However, his past injuries DO give me pause.

At this point in time, I would not have much separation between the value of Watkins and that of Diggs. Watkins still ahead, but not by much.

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Re: Diggs value

Postby rubber_duck » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:59 am

Phaded wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:46 am
10 points in PPR is a very low floor and somewhat of an arbitrary number to use to prove consistency or value.

I mean, it is only 5 receptions for 50 yards at the end of the day.

In week 1 of this year - 40 WRs put up 10 or more points, just to put it in perspective. That literally brings you into WR4 territory (assuming 12 team league).

At quick glance - 48 WRs averaged at least 10 PPG last year and that is not including averaging PPG of injured players.

If a player has a good chunk of games below 10 points in PPR; that to me is something I personally do not want.

10 points is a bad benchmark, basically.
This sounds like someone is asking for a standard benchmark to use to rank wide receiver performance. What should be used as a PPG target to measure WRs in a PPR league?

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Re: Diggs value

Postby onetwothree » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:01 am

If you drafted Diggs as your WR1 last year then yeah, he probably hurt you down the stretch. So did a ton of players if you only value what they do during the "fantasy playoff" weeks. Happens every year. Some random WW pickup ends up closing the season hot and wins someone the championship.

Your team probably doesn't make the playoffs without what Diggs did while healthy. But for a WR3/flex guy (as he was likely drafted to be), he provided excess value until he was clearly limited by injuries. At that point, it's YOUR fault for not adjusting your lineup accordingly. Again, it's not like you spent a pick in the first few rounds on him so if you feel he's the reason you lost, it's the rest of your lineup that's the issue.

As others have mentioned, it's probably too late to buy without an overpay. I wouldn't want to pay 2 1sts for him but that's probably what it'll cost.

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Re: Diggs value

Postby Phaded » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:05 am

rubber_duck wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:59 am
This sounds like someone is asking for a standard benchmark to use to rank wide receiver performance. What should be used as a PPG target to measure WRs in a PPR league?
Exactly - if 48 WRs on the year hit the "benchmark", it is not a great benchmark.
10 has been the benchmark for a while which I never really understood.

In regards to what should be used for a benchmark - I cannot really decide or place that on the community.
But at first glance from last year.

10 - 48 WRs
11 - 41 WRs
12 - 32 WRs
13 - 22 WRs
14 - 16 WRs
15 - 12 WRs

Note that this is only looking at the numbers from last year (and does not factor in injured player PPG) and would likely require a wider review to form a community consensus; but based on the above I think somewhere around 12-13 might be a good benchmark as that seems to be in the WR2-WR3 range.
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Re: Diggs value

Postby Oddball456 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:27 am

Phaded wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:05 am
rubber_duck wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:59 am
This sounds like someone is asking for a standard benchmark to use to rank wide receiver performance. What should be used as a PPG target to measure WRs in a PPR league?
Exactly - if 48 WRs on the year hit the "benchmark", it is not a great benchmark.
10 has been the benchmark for a while which I never really understood.

In regards to what should be used for a benchmark - I cannot really decide or place that on the community.
But at first glance from last year.

10 - 48 WRs
11 - 41 WRs
12 - 32 WRs
13 - 22 WRs
14 - 16 WRs
15 - 12 WRs

Note that this is only looking at the numbers from last year (and does not factor in injured player PPG) and would likely require a wider review to form a community consensus; but based on the above I think somewhere around 12-13 might be a good benchmark as that seems to be in the WR2-WR3 range.
This article is very good at breaking down WR1/WR2 weeks

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2017/ ... receivers/

Breaks it down to WR1 = 20.1 PPG and WR2 = 15.0 PPG where WR1 = top 12 and WR2 = top 13-24

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Re: Diggs value

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:46 am

Reljac wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:01 am
dm1129 wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:50 am
This is a dynasty forum. Keep the forum apprised of how Rishad Matthews works for you compared to Diggs going forward. Diggs is just entering his third season and has been in an offense with a decimated o-line. All you have to do is actually watch Diggs play to see the talent. This is ridiculous.
You've clearly missed the point, as it was Cameron Giles trying to argue Diggs last year 'help' to fantasy teams.

If you re-read the post you are arguing against you may find "I like Diggs going forward and he looked the part on Monday"
I don't see how anyone can argue that someone who finished as the WR13 in terms of points on average, didn't help their fantasy team. Again, the keyword is HELP. How is that so controversial?

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Re: Diggs value

Postby JFever » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:02 am

It isn't.
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Re: Diggs value

Postby rubber_duck » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:05 am

Oddball456 wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:27 am
Phaded wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:05 am
rubber_duck wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:59 am
This sounds like someone is asking for a standard benchmark to use to rank wide receiver performance. What should be used as a PPG target to measure WRs in a PPR league?
Exactly - if 48 WRs on the year hit the "benchmark", it is not a great benchmark.
10 has been the benchmark for a while which I never really understood.

In regards to what should be used for a benchmark - I cannot really decide or place that on the community.
But at first glance from last year.

10 - 48 WRs
11 - 41 WRs
12 - 32 WRs
13 - 22 WRs
14 - 16 WRs
15 - 12 WRs

Note that this is only looking at the numbers from last year (and does not factor in injured player PPG) and would likely require a wider review to form a community consensus; but based on the above I think somewhere around 12-13 might be a good benchmark as that seems to be in the WR2-WR3 range.
This article is very good at breaking down WR1/WR2 weeks

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2017/ ... receivers/

Breaks it down to WR1 = 20.1 PPG and WR2 = 15.0 PPG where WR1 = top 12 and WR2 = top 13-24
Interesting article.

BUT: a WR1 does not average 20 PPG over the entire season. The article discusses how often the top receivers hit the 20 point mark.

I think the 20 PPG benchmark would be good for DFS play when choosing match-ups. But as a stand alone number it is too high to use measuring season long scoring for WR1s.

What interested me most in the article was the approach taken:
- What percentage of games played did the receiver score as a WR1?
- What percentage of games played did the receiver score as a WR2?

Using that methodology may be much better than simply counting points. It gives a clearer picture of how many games the receiver met or exceeded expectations. The way I read it, the article's proposed benchmark would be:
WR1 should score 15+ points in at least 50% of their games (12 teams, PPR scoring).

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Re: Diggs value

Postby gogobradyarm » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:08 am

It seems the argument is the floor he has provided, by either playing injured or being out. I think there is a fair argument with std deviation between his good and bad games, however i'm on the side that thinks Diggs is the real deal. I think there is clear explanation to why he had such deviation, that can't be provided via statistical analysis. The context being, the offense was bad last year, the running game was a mess, the line was mess, and Bradford didn't have an offseason to prep with his new team after being brought in late in the Summer. The fact remains, that when Diggs was healthy, he was a bit streaky, but we really saw some flashes of what his ceiling could be. He is an excellent route runner, has good speed, excellent hands and is still very young and eager to improve.

He has had some injury issues, that is true, but I don't think they have been soft tissue issues, which would be more concerning to me. I think its been a bit fluky, and he has made the right regime changes to get better. Solid character and great work ethic, I don't see what could derail him outside of injury. He posseses all the intangibles that make a great WR an elite WR.

With the offense coming together, Bradford looking good, Cook there established, a new blocking scheme, Thielen and Rudolph being productive, Diggs will face a lot of single coverage....and with that route running and ability to make difficult catches, his future is looking very bright...again, as along as he can stay on the field. He improve from his freshman, to sophomore year, and I expect the leap to continue this year...especially after the week 1 play. I'm very excited about him! To those saying Thielen is doing well too, well that is totally fair, but Diggs was the first read often for Bradford, and I don't expect that to change. Thielen is very talented, it only helps Diggs.

I think the window to buy has passed, I would be surprised if you can get him for less than a single first. I think has carved a way into the top 12 WRs, and personally he's already in my top 10.
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QB: Alex Smith, Josh McCown, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck
RB: Gordon, Hyde, Miller, Abdullah, Prosise, Conner
WR: Hopkins, Julio, Diggs, Cooper, ARob, Watkins, Corey Davis, Flash Gordon
TE: Gronk, ASJ, Njoku, Ebron

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2019: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Diggs value

Postby dynastyninja » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:09 am

Time to play the value game. What is he worth? 1 first, 2 firsts, 3 firsts. Somewhere in between? Let's hear it.
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Re: Diggs value

Postby JFever » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:26 am

Just my opinion of course, and I do own him in 1/6 dynasty leagues AND I'm a huge Vikings fan. But along with that, I've seen him up close working and out shining all other wr on the team at Vikings Training camp the last 3 Augusts.

Diggs >> 1 first
Diggs >= 2 mid firsts
Diggs <<3 firsts

* I'm of the mindset that very few players currently playing in the NFL are worth 3 first round draft picks.
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Re: Diggs value

Postby Phaded » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:36 am

dynastyninja wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:09 am
Time to play the value game. What is he worth? 1 first, 2 firsts, 3 firsts. Somewhere in between? Let's hear it.
Hard me to say as I am not buying and not as big on him. He is a fine receiver and all; but the perception by some that he is a WR1 is too rich for my blood.

With that said - probably somewhere around 2 firsts would be the going rate, I guess.
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