D'Onta Foreman, buy him now?

[SteveVolk]

I think once even an IDP draft gets into the late second round, 2.07 and on, Foreman is something of a bargain. With his mutant size-speed ratio he could be a perennial high-carry thousand yard guy if the light-bulb goes on and he learns how to use his talent to its utmost.

[onetwothree]

When a guy is going in the 3rd in some drafts and a whole bunch of people start getting excited about his potential all at once and now this same guy that was going for a 3rd cant be bought for less than a mid 1st even though he literally hasn't done anything to deserve it except show up to practice out of shape and get injured - that is about as rookie hype as it gets lol. Hope it makes sense to you eventually. Dude is worth maybe a mid 2nd imo. If he's selling for more than that it's due to rookie hype.

Some of the inflation is due to the coachspeak coming out talking about how Miller wore down and that they need to make sure they have another guy ready to help carry the load plus articles such as the Rotoviz one that had him rated pretty highly.

When you're looking at that 2nd tier of RBs that starts towards the end of the 1st round, who could you confidently say will have a better opportunity than him? Hunt and Perine maybe? The late 1st to 3rd round range makes sense depending on your preference...

[_yeti]

My draft was about 3 weeks ago. Didn't have any mid-round picks due to moves predraft and was trying to discipline myself to sit it out in the mid-rounds.

Long story short, mid-third he is still there (high scoring IDP though), and I traded a (likely very late) 2018 2nd and 2018 5th to take him at 3.8.

He was the 13th RB in our draft and I would put him arguably at about the 6th ranked RB in this draft for me. Also half ppr so not as worried about receiving knocks

[lukkynumber13]

My draft was about 3 weeks ago. Didn't have any mid-round picks due to moves predraft and was trying to discipline myself to sit it out in the mid-rounds.

Long story short, mid-third he is still there (high scoring IDP though), and I traded a (likely very late) 2018 2nd and 2018 5th to take him at 3.8.

He was the 13th RB in our draft and I would put him arguably at about the 6th ranked RB in this draft for me. Also half ppr so not as worried about receiving knocks

I ain't mad atcha! Go get your guy.

[Chris_R]

Ya'll have lost your minds lol. Now is definitely the worst time to even try to buy Foreman - I wouldn't even want to show interest in the dude yet if I wanted him. His value is propped up by rookie hype. If you want him for anything resembling reasonable wait until the season starts when people value actual production and backup RBs are priced more like backup RBs and less like future RB1s.

His hype is such that if he even has a 'justaverage preseason' it'll dent his value as people come back down to earth. Be patient, he'll deflate. This reminds me so much of Booker last season lol.

His value is inflated by rookie hype yet numerous people here already stating they got him in the 3rd round. That makes no sense.

When a guy is going in the 3rd in some drafts and a whole bunch of people start getting excited about his potential all at once and now this same guy that was going for a 3rd cant be bought for less than a mid 1st even though he literally hasn't done anything to deserve it except show up to practice out of shape and get injured - that is about as rookie hype as it gets lol. Hope it makes sense to you eventually. Dude is worth maybe a mid 2nd imo. If he's selling for more than that it's due to rookie hype.

Yea...you still don't seem to be getting it. You initially said people were out of their minds and he was getting inflated due to rookie hype in the same thread numerous people are saying he is available in the 3rd round. That literally makes no sense based off what you said. Ask yourself if Foreman was a 3rd round pick after his pro day, or better yet ask yourself if Hunt, Perine, Kamara, etc are all worth a late 1st but Foreman is worth "maybe a mid 2nd". You seem to be interjecting your opinion in this thread as some absolute fact here which is odd.

There is literally nothing over inflated about a guy with his profile and skill set from a major college going in the 3rd round. He's probably one of the better values in the draft so far.

[ninotoreS]

Foreman at 2.10 makes my head hurt.

He's gone in the 3rd round in all 3 of my leagues. All three rookie drafts were in the past 30 days.

People believe this much in Lamar Miller, huh.

[ninotoreS]

- Speaking as a former baseball player, I don't think it's implausible those balls are traveling 50~ mph. That angle also makes it look slower, I think.

Speaking as a former baseball player, you're drunk . Those balls were floating in there.

50 mph pitches are slow as molasses. They DO float. How do you not know this, if you've batted against knuckleballs and change-ups?

People think the thrown footballs in pro and college football are traveling faster than they actually are. One of the reasons so many good college QBs can't make it in the pros is because those balls traveling on average around 50mph (it's very hard to remain consistently accurate at the intermediate level throwing the ball any harder) can't beat pro coverage reaction times and hit the open window by the grace of velocity alone. Anticipation and 'throwing receivers open' is so important for NFL QBs exactly because the accurate passes just aren't actually traveling all that fast.

[Cameron Giles]

Foreman at 2.10 makes my head hurt.

He's gone in the 3rd round in all 3 of my leagues. All three rookie drafts were in the past 30 days.

People believe this much in Lamar Miller, huh.

Unless Miller has a season-ending injury, I don't see a scenario where Foreman is handling more work than him by the end of the season. At best, a split could happen, but it depends on Foreman improving in pass protection and receiving.

[lukkynumber13]

He's gone in the 3rd round in all 3 of my leagues. All three rookie drafts were in the past 30 days.

People believe this much in Lamar Miller, huh.

Unless Miller has a season-ending injury, I don't see a scenario where Foreman is handling more work than him by the end of the season. At best, a split could happen, but it depends on Foreman improving in pass protection and receiving.

Yeah I definitely don't see Foreman doing anything this year unless Miller tears an ACL week 1 or something.

Best case scenario, Foreman gets some heavy work for a few weeks & flashes, a la Jeremy Hill 2 years ago. Then we can have a decent little 2-3 year window with which to either sell him or use him as a flex.

[ninotoreS]

it depends on Foreman improving in pass protection and receiving

Absolutely it does.

But Houston didn't take a running-back with a Day 2 pick with the hope that he'd develop into no more than a backup.

There's plenty of evidence now that Miller just can't effectively handle true feature-back loads. Picking Foreman in the 3rd round is Houston's plainly apparent concession to this fear. He's their plan B that they're already half convinced will be necessary.

And Miller is probably being paid too much to be just a timeshare RB, so if a timeshare does develop due to Foreman developing as hoped, it will likely mean Miller's days in Houston are numbered.

[SteveVolk]

He went early enough in the NFL draft that he falls into that category of players who figure to get opportunity. When I got him at 2.12, he was the 10th running back off the board, after the usual six plus Jamal Williams, Joe Williams and James Conner (to the Bell owner). He was a bargain at that price.

[Cameron Giles]

Absolutely it does.

But Houston didn't take a running-back with a Day 2 pick with the hope that he'd develop into no more than a backup.

There's plenty of evidence now that Miller just can't effectively handle true feature-back loads. Picking Foreman in the 3rd round is Houston's plainly apparent concession to this fear. He's their plan B that they're already half convinced will be necessary.

And Miller is probably being paid too much to be just a timeshare RB, so if a timeshare does develop due to Foreman developing as hoped, it will likely mean Miller's days in Houston are numbered.

I agree that Houston likely wants Foreman to become their starter at some point. Teams don't spend 3rd round picks on RB's without that hope. However, Foreman still has to confirm their belief. If Foreman doesn't play well and Miller is similar to his previous production, they're not going to cut Miller.

It's like the DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combination. Sure, Henry should be the starter in 2018, when the Titans can cut Murray for nothing. But, there's a possibility that if Murray duplicates his production, they'll restructure his contract and keep him another year.

None of this would keep me from taking Foreman high in a draft. I'm a firm believer in taking the best talent and letting everything take care of itself. But, we've seen opportunity and situation influence a lot of rookie drafts.

[forrestmoons]

He's definitely a 2nd round pick for me. He's sort of a one-dimensional player, but is already a better between-the-tackles runner than Lamar Miller, who we know is mediocre at this point.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Absolutely it does.

But Houston didn't take a running-back with a Day 2 pick with the hope that he'd develop into no more than a backup.

There's plenty of evidence now that Miller just can't effectively handle true feature-back loads. Picking Foreman in the 3rd round is Houston's plainly apparent concession to this fear. He's their plan B that they're already half convinced will be necessary.

And Miller is probably being paid too much to be just a timeshare RB, so if a timeshare does develop due to Foreman developing as hoped, it will likely mean Miller's days in Houston are numbered.

I agree that Houston likely wants Foreman to become their starter at some point. Teams don't spend 3rd round picks on RB's without that hope. However, Foreman still has to confirm their belief. If Foreman doesn't play well and Miller is similar to his previous production, they're not going to cut Miller.

It's like the DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combination. Sure, Henry should be the starter in 2018, when the Titans can cut Murray for nothing. But, there's a possibility that if Murray duplicates his production, they'll restructure his contract and keep him another year.

None of this would keep me from taking Foreman high in a draft. I'm a firm believer in taking the best talent and letting everything take care of itself. But, we've seen opportunity and situation influence a lot of rookie drafts.

I think the difference between those situations is Miller hasn't shown he could be efficiently productive on a high volume of touches, whereas Murray has. Miller also didn't score many td's whereas Murray has. So there's a bit more of an opening for Foreman to get more touches and goalline looks than Henry had with Murray.

[Vcize]

- Speaking as a former baseball player, I don't think it's implausible those balls are traveling 50~ mph. That angle also makes it look slower, I think.

Speaking as a former baseball player, you're drunk . Those balls were floating in there.

50 mph pitches are slow as molasses. They DO float. How do you not know this, if you've batted against knuckleballs and change-ups?

People think the thrown footballs in pro and college football are traveling faster than they actually are. One of the reasons so many good college QBs can't make it in the pros is because those balls traveling on average around 50mph (it's very hard to remain consistently accurate at the intermediate level throwing the ball any harder) can't beat pro coverage reaction times and hit the open window by the grace of velocity alone. Anticipation and 'throwing receivers open' is so important for NFL QBs exactly because the accurate passes just aren't actually traveling all that fast.

I'm not really sure what point you're making there, but I was a catcher on the baseball team and quarterback of the football team in high school so I have plenty of experience with measured throwing velocity. The passes in that video are the kind you throw to your girlfriend when you're at the park.

Not saying that to bash Foreman in any way (DD may be the only person on this forum higher on him than me, I literally acquired him in every dynasty league I play in), just as a matter of reality.