What constitutes a fair first offer?

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apbohannon
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What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby apbohannon » Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:59 am

I see a lot of posts, rightfully so, discussing bad trade offers on here. Trade offers that don't garner a response, auto-reject, "not close". So I wanted to get everyone's opinion on what makes up a fair first trade offer. Obviously you can't offer a 2nd rd. pick for Gurley (saw that one in another thread), but how close to actual/perceived value do you need to come in a first offer?

I assume most people on here use one of the many trade calculators available or something similar based on your own rankings and calculations. So should a trade be within 20%, 10%, 5% of value? I imagine we are all trying to "win" the trade, whether it be based on calculated value, or projecting one guy as being worth more than the rest of owners in a league. Just looking to see what people on here expect to see, or what you typically send to start negotiations.
Team 1:
QB - Joe Flacco, Jimmy Garoppolo
RB - Tevin Coleman, Ryan Mathews, CJ Prosise, Mike Gillislee
WR - Kamar Aiken , Anquan Boldin, Pharoh Cooper, Torrey Smith, Tyrell Williams, Tyler Lockett
TE - Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper

2017 Picks - 1.01, 1.04, 1.09, 2.09, 2.11, 3.09, 4.01

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skip
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby skip » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:14 am

apbohannon wrote:
Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:59 am
I assume most people on here use one of the many trade calculators available or something similar based on your own rankings and calculations. So should a trade be within 20%, 10%, 5% of value? I imagine we are all trying to "win" the trade, whether it be based on calculated value, or projecting one guy as being worth more than the rest of owners in a league. Just looking to see what people on here expect to see, or what you typically send to start negotiations.
ALWAYS send as balanced an offer as you can. And I hope you are joking about using a trade calculator.
"Arrogance and ignorance is a bad combination."

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Death_From_Above » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:26 am

When I work a deal I look at my roster and my trade partners roster and try to find the common ground where I can address a team need for him and address the team need or what I want for me. If your a dynasty player worth your weight you can gauge what the consensus value is for what you are offering and what you are trying to get. So you can use this to your advantage without offering a "bad" offer. If you are higher on a guy than you know the group think is and you feel comfortable offering the group think value then you can gain personal value at the expense of group think.

90% of the time my offer will be sent as near my best offer. I say near because I am not that other owner and he may desire a different piece, so there is always wiggle room for a counter. However I am not of the mindset of let me send a 3rd for this guy when I know I should and would really pay a 2nd. In my opinion, and experience, when you start there, when you do the "well I'm not going to give my best offer first" mentality it almost never works out in your favor and can burn bridges for future deals later.

Trade negotiations are 10% about getting the deal done and 90% about being an approachable and fair owner so that well can be visited again in the future.
4 Horseman | 16 Team, 27 In, 32 Off Season Roster | 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1OFF FLX, 2DL, 2LB, 3DB, 1DEF FLX:
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RB: AP | Gio | Sims | Matt Jones
WR: Keenan | Cooper | AJ Green | Kevin White | DGB | T. Smith | Dorsett
TE: Witten | Henry | V. McDonald
PK: Gano
DL: Wilkerson | Ansah | Addison | J. Hughes? | Quinn
LB: E. Kendricks | Perryman | Trevathan | D. Johnson | Ragland | Jaylon Smith | M. Kendricks
DB: Collins | Harrison Smith | Byron Jones
2017 Picks: 1.02 | 1.03 | 2.02

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QB: Tyrod | Wentz
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby cp3 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:30 am

skip wrote:
Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:14 am
apbohannon wrote:
Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:59 am
I assume most people on here use one of the many trade calculators available or something similar based on your own rankings and calculations. So should a trade be within 20%, 10%, 5% of value? I imagine we are all trying to "win" the trade, whether it be based on calculated value, or projecting one guy as being worth more than the rest of owners in a league. Just looking to see what people on here expect to see, or what you typically send to start negotiations.
ALWAYS send as balanced an offer as you can. And I hope you are joking about using a trade calculator.
This. As time goes on, I've grown tired of the back and forth negotiation. Sometimes it's fun, but more often than not I just want to lead with a strong offer that makes sense and is close is value, and if it's close we can tweak things.
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RB: Martin, Yeldon, Charles, McKinnon, Barber, Brown
WR: Evans, Crabtree, Watkins, Cooper, Cooks, Allen, Maclin, Janis, Louis, Campanaro
TE: Fleener, Walford, Rudolph, Tye

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby FiremanEd » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:32 am

I offer what I think is fair. I don't conceptualize what I think is fair and then start under that, which I hear a few people do and excuse as 'it's just a starting point!'. I'm trying to be a fair trader who wins with assessment, not someone cheaping on deals and insulting other owners.

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Fezzik » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:36 am

It's a really good question. It's a tricky balance to strike, and there's no real "right" answer.

While I appreciate the previous comments, you don't win your league by bleeding away picks and value in players. Each of us is trying to get the best bargain we can, and it doesn't hurt seeing if you can get one, but again you have to balance that with good relations with leaguemates.

I have a personal pet peeve with one guy in one of my leagues. I've made it a point to only offer him what I perceive to be very fair deals, and invariably he comes back with "it would have to be a little more". Doesn't matter the deal, every time, that's his response. For example, I offered Jordan Howard for 1.02 (he has good WRs and a big RB need), and basically said I wanted Davis, and that if he preferred Howard to Cook or McCaffrey and Mixon, we could make a deal. Response: "It would have to be more". Frustrating, b/c I perceive this to be a very fair offer.

I think the answer is just don't take it personally when people negotiate on either side, and just let it happen. Be as honest as you can be but don't give it away.

Further, I can honestly say I've done deals where I have accepted a counter offer that I previously thought I wouldn't have considered. It was for a big (the biggest) piece - Antonio Brown - and his counter was steep but ultimately worth paying.
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QB (1) - C. Newton, R. Tannehill
RB (1) - T. Gurley, M. Ingram, C. Hyde, M. Jones, R. Mathews, J. Howard, J. McKinnon, K. Marshall
WR (3) - J. Jones, A. Brown, A. Cooper, L. Fitzgerald, M. Crabtree, D. Moncrief, T. Lockett, J. Gordon, D. Smelter
TE (1) - R. Gronkowski, B. Watson
Flex (1) - any r/w/t
DEF/K

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The Brute Squad(Adopted Orphan before 2014 season) - Tiered PPR; 0.25 for RB, 0.5 for WR
QB (1) - B. Roethlisberger, B. Bortles, Garapollo
RB (1) - A. Peterson, J. McKinnon, T. Gurley, B. Cunningham, CJ Anderson, C. Thompson
WR (3) - D. Hopkins, A. Jeffery, S. Watkins, D. Parker, S. Shepard, J. Crowder
TE (1) - Charles Clay, Ladarius Green, V. MacDonald
Flex (1) - any r/w/t
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QB (1) - Matt Ryan, Bradford
RB (1) - CJA, TJ Yeldon, J. McKinnon
WR (1) - O. Beckham Jr., K. Allen, R. Cobb, G. Tate, S. Diggs
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Ray Finkle » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:51 am

Ha, yeah trade calculators are dumb.

I've never once been offended by a trade offer. I'm always confused as to why owners take offense to a low ball offer. Who cares?
What I dislike more than a lowball is when an owner contacts me with the question "what would you take for...?" My response is always, "make an offer." I'd rather just have someone offer me a 2nd rounder for Todd Gurley and then we can go from there.

With all that said, I always try to make a pretty even initial offer. Even in instances where I might start a bit low I like to make it something respectable that will at least get the other owner engaged. Always, always, always take the other owners roster needs into consideration.

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby apbohannon » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:16 am

Death_From_Above wrote:
Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:26 am
When I work a deal I look at my roster and my trade partners roster and try to find the common ground where I can address a team need for him and address the team need or what I want for me. If your a dynasty player worth your weight you can gauge what the consensus value is for what you are offering and what you are trying to get. So you can use this to your advantage without offering a "bad" offer. If you are higher on a guy than you know the group think is and you feel comfortable offering the group think value then you can gain personal value at the expense of group think.

90% of the time my offer will be sent as near my best offer. I say near because I am not that other owner and he may desire a different piece, so there is always wiggle room for a counter. However I am not of the mindset of let me send a 3rd for this guy when I know I should and would really pay a 2nd. In my opinion, and experience, when you start there, when you do the "well I'm not going to give my best offer first" mentality it almost never works out in your favor and can burn bridges for future deals later.

Trade negotiations are 10% about getting the deal done and 90% about being an approachable and fair owner so that well can be visited again in the future.
I approach trading similarly; I look at rosters in the league and try to find holes at positions in other rosters and make trades that way so we both benefit. The only reason I wouldn't offer my best/final offer first is that you never know how high another owner is on a guy or draft pick. So, by offering my best offer to start I potentially set myself up to send more away than I otherwise may have had to. I don't want to lowball anyone, but I also don't want to send too much to begin with. I typically approach trades by sending what I would view as 90% of the total value I would be willing to send, leaving a little margin for a counter or the hopes the other guy is higher on the initial offer than I may have perceived.
Team 1:
QB - Joe Flacco, Jimmy Garoppolo
RB - Tevin Coleman, Ryan Mathews, CJ Prosise, Mike Gillislee
WR - Kamar Aiken , Anquan Boldin, Pharoh Cooper, Torrey Smith, Tyrell Williams, Tyler Lockett
TE - Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper

2017 Picks - 1.01, 1.04, 1.09, 2.09, 2.11, 3.09, 4.01

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby SCYCPA » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:15 am

This is a great topic. Was just having dinner last night with a long-time friend and DLF member with whom I partner on several leagues (we also have rival teams in one league as well). We were commiserating a bit on how it seems that more players in our leagues only want to do what I call "Cosby" deals - where they win resoundingly, and the lost art of the first offer with FF players thinking they have to try to start every discussion with a lowball offer to keep "negotiating position". Both of us are looking at cutting back on leagues, we started last year and will continue this year, because this obsession with winning trades among owners in our leagues has ruined the fun of trading for us.

It was funny - after I arrived home from that dinner late last night, I had in my inbox an offer asking me to send Mike Evans for the 1.4 rookie pick, which was a counteroffer to a solid offer that I had sent earlier.

First, keep in mind that "Fair" is relative. What is "fair" to you may not be "fair" to me. Everybody values players differently, and many of us have our personal prejudices for or against particular players.

99.9% of first offers fail at the most important part of the deal - bringing the other party to the table, either with the return you are seeking for your asset, or with the asset you are seeking to acquire.

I always start with an objective - either selling a particular player or buying a particular player. You don't need to disclose it, but in receiving an offer, I like to be able to discern the counterparty's objective which will help to progress toward the deal they may want.

In general, when sending an offer, I will consult a few resources - ADP and rankings charts on DLF and a couple other sites, try to match up some players or picks in the general area of the player I'm looking to move or acquire. If I have dealt with the franchise owner previously, and I know which resources he/she primarily uses (DLF, trade calculator, etc.), I will focus on that resource. If not, I'll use judgment. I'll set a "max price" (buying) or "min price" (selling), and generally keep my first offer within 5-10% of that, leaving a little wiggle room for sweetening without going over or under my max or min price.

I'll also look at the counterparty's team to evaluate for needs, what stage of the business cycle they are, etc.

On the flip side - what am I looking for in a first offer? I'm looking for something that gets me intrigued. I'm looking for something with which I can work, maybe a tweak or two to come to the final deal. Most of all, I'm looking for a benefit in the offer being accrued to my team and the related cost of obtaining that benefit. Note, that's different from "winning" the trade.

Realistically, I lose interest in a deal - whether I want it or not - after about 2-3 back and forths, so I avoid sending out lowballs and I avoid countering lowballs. Negotiating position is a consideration, but it is overrated, as it does you absolutely no good if you start so low (in a "strong negotiating position") that the other party won't come to the table.

And if somebody shows me a Twitter poll or a trade calculator screen shot about how their deal is "fair" or my offer is "unfair" - I automatically terminate the discussion. Without exception.
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WR: Ju. Jones, Hopkins, Watkins, Evans, J. Matthews, Beckham, Moncrief, Parker, Dorsett , Mitchell
TE: Green, Ebron, Bennett


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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby maxhyde » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:24 am

Just like life; doing deals and making good relationships. I want both owners to feel like they won when they hit accept. I go all in for guys I really want and less aggressive for deals I can take or leave.

The worst way to approach me for a deal is a ridiculous low ball because I just assume you are a jackass rip-off artist...not looking for a counter. As in life people that want something for nothing don't play very large roles in my present or future
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RB: David Johnson, Cmike, DMC(IR), Andre Ellington, Darius Jackson, Lynch**
WR: DT, Jeffery,Cooper, MFloyd, Josh Gordon, Charles Johnson, Justin Hardy,Peake(2.17), Brice Butler
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby IR1 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:29 am

Try to be fair, make it a win/win. I usually lose interest, or feel the other guy is trying to get the "win", when there is a lot of back and forth.
Team 1
Rivers, Winston/Ingram, Murray, Martin, Crowell,Dixon/AJG, Arob, Allen, Treadwell, Moncrief, Parker/Kelce, Ertz/
Dareus, Jackson/Vernon, Heyward, Fowler,Buckner, Ndemiche/TSmith, Collins, EKendricks, DJones, Campbell, CJones/Jenkins, Rhodes, Ramsey/Burnett, HSmith, Collins

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Winston,Tannehill, Wentz/ Matthews, Jennings, Crowell, Smallwood, Morris, Dunbar/ Evans, Watkins, Allen, Jordy, Sheppard, Agholor, DSmith, Inman/Gronk, Bennett, Higbee, Fiedorowicz

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Brees, Newton, Goff/ Crowell, Abdullah, Yeldon, Crowell, Henry McKinnon, DWAshington/ Alshon, Adams,Garçon, Funchess, Parker,DGB, Agholor , Sanu /Ertz, Derby, Hooper

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Generic Username » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:35 am

Mizelle here has a pretty good ADP list for free and it quite closely mimics the DLF one. I start there and then *adjust* according to my assets being offered and those I'm trying to get (team needs, stuff like that)

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby saw061600 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:38 am

What's fair? That's the problem for many owners who over believe in the upside of their guys and under value all players offered to them. I try to offer a fair trade based upon my valuations when compared with the consensus value of same players. Sometimes this means I'm offering more value then ADP and general consensus, while other offers may seem low to an owner with higher expectations. Trades involving Watkins are a great example of how this works. His value is all over the place. Deals that one owner will think is a steal another will view as awful. As they say in sales, "Every sale is a good deal if the customer believes it was a good deal". I try to offer deals that will viewed as "good" by the other owner. Easier to do after you've made offers to and observed offers accepted by each owner in your league.
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Miller Ajayi Dixon Perkins Sims Charles
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Eifert Kelce Rodgers
Watt Ansah Quinn Williams Richardson Taylor Graham
Bowman Collins Mosley Kendricks Bucannon DCampbell DJones Bradhem Lee Compton
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#2 12 TM .5ppr, IDP 45 RST
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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby srlarson » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:07 am

simple low ball trade offers are dismissed w/o response....have a guy in one of my leagues that does this consistently....and I know it pisses him off when people don't counter trades. so when he sends a low ball...just decline...... Example ( I posted open to trading one of my Eagles WR Jeffrey and Mathews.....he offered Yeldon for Jeffrey straight up.....I declined....then I get a long email stating his point how this was an even trade and he was actually over paying.....)

Same guy trying to trade for my 1st round lick.....told him upfront what my price was...and I admitted it was a huge overpay..but that is what is was going to take. he sends me 5 offers that are no where near my price..throwing in junk like Patterson, Drake to "sweeten" the pot...

So a huge fan of proposing fair value....I actually like to have a conversation(yea I know old school) prior to putting things out on the site...cuts through all the BS back and forth. And up front on the price and either move forward or move on.

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Re: What constitutes a fair first offer?

Postby Goddard » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:10 am

skip wrote:
Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:14 am
apbohannon wrote:
Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:59 am
I assume most people on here use one of the many trade calculators available or something similar based on your own rankings and calculations. So should a trade be within 20%, 10%, 5% of value? I imagine we are all trying to "win" the trade, whether it be based on calculated value, or projecting one guy as being worth more than the rest of owners in a league. Just looking to see what people on here expect to see, or what you typically send to start negotiations.
ALWAYS send as balanced an offer as you can. And I hope you are joking about using a trade calculator.
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