2015 Preseason Poll

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henry1jg
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2015 Preseason Poll

Postby henry1jg » Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:47 am

Jim’s Ninth Annual Preseason Poll

As always, let’s start the poll off with a review of how I faired with my predictions from last season.

2014 Prediction: 2014 Final Standings:
14. Walt 14. Johnson
13. Wedge 13. Cook
12. Johnson 12. Greg
11. Ryan 11. Walt
10. Cook 10. Evan
9. Mike 9. Wedge
8. Rich 8. Rich
7. Greg 7. Normandin
Playoff Prediction: Playoff Teams:
6. Evan 6. Jim
5. Normandin 5. Jeff
4. Jim 4. Randy
3. Randy 3. Ryan
2. Matt 2. Mike
Champ: Jeff Champ: Matt

The is only the second time in the last five seasons of my prognostication that I picked less than five of the six playoff teams correctly, I did however pick four of the six correctly again. I STILL have not correctly predicted the HFFL Champion, therefore the curse continues.

This year we do have one new owner, our first change in ownership since before the 2012 season. While the ride was great, Cook has decided to step aside and open the door for a new GM to take his place. Timbo takes over a team that has made the playoffs in two of the last three seasons, but has since fallen on tough times as age and injury have caught up with the franchise. We shall see if he can overcome last season’s 4-9 finish to return to the previous glory the franchise once enjoyed.

Last year I tried to create a new rankings strategy, as it turns out, it wasn’t any more accurate than me eyeballing the teams and choosing who I felt was strongest. Over the years, there has been many different variations of teams that have won the HFFL Ship, but the one thing that has always been a staple of championship squads is the elite fantasy scoring QB. Over the life of this dynasty, (which is now entering into its 10th season!!!) only once has the Champ had their starting QB finish outside of the top 5 at the position. Now while there are obviously other key positions and players required to win a Ship, QB has proven to be the single most important position for contenders. If you don’t own Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, just know that you’re facing an uphill battle year in and year out and the odds are not in your favor.

I decided to keep the formula for team ranking that I used last year, but made some subtle tweaks to it hoping for better results. The non-QB premium positions remain RB, WR, and LB, but having a player like Gronk at TE or Watt at DE is highly valuable as it creates a massive positional advantage over any opponent. I continued focusing on these four premium positions, but weighted QBs heavier than I ever have into the equation, as the historical data indicates I should. As many of you know, I am a diehard RB lover, which has probably been my downfall and the reason I have never been able to carry the championship home in what has long been my favorite league. That said, I have taken some weight away from the RB as compared to last season’s team ranking formula and increased the weight for WRs and LBs. We’ll see if the revamped formula shows better results than the previous version.

As a friendly reminder, this poll is created for fun and for entertainment. If you don’t like the way I see your team, don’t be a pansy and cry about it, just prove me wrong. Or do cry about, I don’t care. Sissy…
Without further adieu:

14. Johnson - Career Regular Season Record – 23-40-2; Career Playoff Record – n/a

Johnson is a stand up guy and he’s funny as all hell, but I think it’s time to admit that this franchise needs to try a new method. Johnson GMs the ONLY team in HFFL history that has never been to the playoffs. Let that sink in for a second. This team has NEVER been to the playoffs. Clearly something has to give here for a franchise stooped in mediocrity. Coming off two straight mediocre seasons, something has to give and it appears Scott is ready to set a direction toward rebuilding, and I applaud him for that. Average is the enemy of any dynasty team. Scott shipped off an aging an injury prone Arian Foster and although the league moaned and groaned about it initially, it appears it was certainly the correct choice as Foster is set to miss half the season due to yet another soft tissue injury. There are young pieces at every position for Scott to build with and I feel as though he may finally be headed in the right direction. Ryan Tannehill appears poised to enter into the top 10 QB conversation, Tevin Coleman has ridiculous upside, and the WR trio of Matthews, Latimer, and Randle is an underrated group of prospects. Maxx Williams is the top TE prospect of 2015 and the upside of Shaq Thompson, Telvin Smith, and Randy Gregory in undeniable. There are still some concerns for Scott’s team though. If he is truly committing to the rebuild, players like Rivers, Rashad Jennings, Anquan, and LaFell need to be shipped off to the highest bidder and replaced by youth. Flat out, Tamba Hali, Tuck, D Hall, and Ben Tate are a complete waste of a roster spot and should be replaced by youth from the waiver wire. Scott needs to bleep or get off the pot.

13. Timbo – Career Regular Season Record – n/a; Career Playoff Record – n/a

The Noob. Timbo enters the league looking to rebound from the stagnant era that this franchise has endured the last few seasons. Timbo has undoubtedly had the unluckiest offseason of any HFFL team as he has already lost Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin before the pads were even put on for real. He had planned on pushing for one of the final playoff spots with a team that is only one season removed from a playoff berth, but has now found himself forced into a rebuild. Since he will be unable to compete this year, Timbo needs to join Johnson and a couple other teams in the HFFL by cutting their dead weight and adding youth with upside. The WW is absolutely stacked with talent, I cannot for the life of me figure out why someone like Brian Hoyer or Nate Washington is on any roster in a dynasty league, especially on a non contender. It’s time for Timbo to swallow his pride and deal Brandon Marshall for a young asset, Greg Jennings can be held and shipped to a contender mid-season, CJ2k, Reggie Bush, Danny Woodhead, and DeAngelo Williams should all be dealt to the highest bidder. TRich flopped, costing the Raiders $600k for nothing. It’s not all ugly for Timbo though as he has Flacco entering Trestman’s offense, the same offense that pushed Jay Cutler into a very nice fantasy play in Chicago. I expect career highs across the board for Flacco. Melvin Gordon and Phillip Dorsett have undeniable upside and very well may be building blocks for Timbo down the road. Zach Ertz is a fine TE prospect and Leonard Williams has dominated in the preseason. Guys like Pernell McPhee and Kemal Ishmael need to be shown the door though. Timbo has a very steep uphill climb this year, but with the right moves, he could find himself at the playoff doorstep as early as next season.

12. Walt – Career Regular Season Record – 15-36-1; Career Playoff Record – 1-2

Walt, better known as The Notorious S.U.C.K, has long been a staple of what not to do in the HFFL, 2015 will be no different. Walt is a very interesting dynasty evaluator. The last three seasons have proven one thing; Walt will either draft an absolute stud (Nuk Hopkins, OBJ) or an absolute dud (Lattimore, Dion Jordan, RG3). Walt has proven to be very good at identifying and drafting elite fantasy talent, but inexplicably deals that talent for pennies on the dollar the offseason before that player enters his second season, just to get the newest hot rookie. Without having dealt away players the past few offseasons, Walt would likely be a playoff team. The sale of players like Nuk Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr, Davante Adams, and Tyler Eifert has inexplicably pushed Walt’s rebuild farther and farther. Let’s analyze Walts 2015 draft class and attempt to determine who the studs are and who the duds are. In the first round he took Ameer Abdullah and Nelson Agholar, two very solid picks on the surface. Ameer is small for the position, has small hands, and a fumble history, and does not possess elite downfield speed, but he ridiculous agility and vision. He may not have the long term upside of some ther players his size (Ray Rice), but he will still be a very solid fantasy producer. Verdict: stud. Agholar is a Jeremy Maclin clone as far as size, speed, and metrics are concerned, his main issue is related to inconsistent hands and whether or not he can break the curse of the USC WR. If any coach can help him, its Chip Kelly, but I’m just not seeing it. Verdict: Dud. In the 2nd round, Walt took Eric Kendricks, Sammie Coates, and David Cobb. Coates and Cobb were both reaches and I believe both will be duds, but Kendricks has all the makings of a fantasy stalwart at MLB for the Vikings.

Here is my first clear divide. I don’t believe there is any circumstance under which Johnson, Timbo, or Walt will be able to compete for the 2015 Ship. Hit the WW boys and drop that dead weight.

11. Evan – Career Regular Season Record 18-21; Career Playoff Record – 0-3

Evan just suffered his first career losing season, one that was an unmitigated disaster. The nightmare began when Zac Stacy lost his starting gig, Victor Cruz ripped up his knee, Matt Stafford wet the bed, and Jamaal Charles got injured early on. Evan was predictably never able to recover after that, but it’s not all gloom and doom. He has a young superstar in Jeremy Hill, a potential rebound candidate in Doug Martin, a very nice 3rd year WR in Keenan Allen, and one of the league’s best TE duos in Olsen and Eifert. Evan’s biggest issue is the sheer amount of dead weight he is carrying on his team. Dockett, Amukamara, Dumervil, Lewis and one of McCoy or Donald should all be sent packing to the FA pool and replaced with upside offensive talent from the WW. Evan is only carrying three RBs, one of which is De’Anthony Thomas, that is a recipe for disaster. Kenny Bell can be moved to IR to open up another roster spot. Kahlil Mack has been a terror this preseason, we’ll see if he’s able to put up some serious fantasy points. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that even if Evan hits the WW and strikes gold that he’ll make the playoffs this season, but he could easily accelerate his future success by cutting all the dead weight he’s carrying.

10. Greg – Career Regular Season Record – 26-26; Career Playoff Record –4-2

The downward spiral continues for Greg who has struggled with health and inconsistency since his 2012 HFFL title. CJ Spiller has been an utter disappointment since the 2012 season. Greg, as did most fantasy experts, expected Spiller to be an elite fantasy asset, something that just never materialized. Joique has been a steady contributor for Greg, but he isn’t the type of player that will win a fantasy championship and is nearing the end of the line. Greg’s WR are still very strong with Julio, Decker, and Watkins, but they haven’t had quite the same oomph without Jennings being in GB and Decker being in Denver. Watkins is an elite talent, one that will likely transcend his poor situation in Buffalo. Jaelen Strong is one of the biggest sleeper WRs in this rookie class, one that I think will pay off huge for Greg in the long run. I’m not quite as high on his 2nd round pick Jay Ajayi, as I feel he was a reach by Greg and has a serious medical red flag with his knees. Greg has the best young LB in the league right now in Luke Kuechly, but he does not possess an elite unit as a whole any longer. Greg decided to scrap the choir boy drafting mentality that he’s had the last few years and took Jameis Winston at 1.05, a pick that is likely one that will determine the outlook of this team for the foreseeable future. Romo will be an elite producer this season, so he may provide Greg with some trade bait that can help his cause at another position.

Here is the second divide. Greg and Evan would need a huge stroke of luck to make the playoffs in my opinion. Every team listed from here on out could very well be a playoff team; they just need some things to fall into place to make that happen.

9. Wedge – Career Regular Season Record – 36-54; Career Playoff Record – 1-2

Wedge is another franchise mired in mediocrity. In seven seasons of HFFL action, Wedge has only had one season with a record over .500. He has won 4 or 5 games in all six of the other seasons. Things seemed to be looking up after the 2014 draft as Wedge took a pair of highly touted RBs in Hyde and Sankey, both of whom had underwhelming rookie campaigns, and are facing serious questions entering year two. The fate of Wedge’s season, potentially his future, rests with these two RBs. The addition of Mariota should open some running lanes for Sankey and Hyde is the early down RB behind a makeshift oline in SF. Andre Williams showed some small glimpses last season, but a 3.3 ypc is never easy on the eyes. David Johnson is a freak athlete, one who many in the metrics community have extremely high hopes for. The bread and butter of this team will once again be Russell Wilson and Mike Evans, both of whom are elite assets at their position. Teddy is a very solid up and coming QB, my top ranked from the 2014 class, and should provide a very steady option for Wedge if he’s needed to be called upon. I continue to be a Torrey Smith fan, although I think landing with Kaep and SF may be a death knell to any upside he had. As always, Wedge has a very good, potentially elite defensive unit. Defense has always been a calling card for this franchise and 2015 will be no different. Wedge was one of the more difficult teams for me to rank as his team is brimming with upside, they just haven’t put it all together yet. I may live to regret ranking him this low, but I have to follow history on this one.

8. Rich – Career Regular Season Record – 25-26-1; Career Playoff Record – 0-3

Rich lands in the same slot in the 2015 preseason poll as he did in the 2014 poll. Rich has been so close, but yet so far away for seemingly his entire HFFL career. Rich got huge performances out of DeMarco and Maclin on offense and Curtis Lofton and Harrison Smith on defense last season. The problem is that Matt Ryan is the only other player that finished in the top 10 at his position last year and he has a new OC this season. Murray and Mathews have new homes, but they’re on the same team, hurting the overall value they can provide for Rich’s lineup any given week. Joseph Randle has a huge opportunity, but is just another guy as far as NFL talent is concerned. Jarvis Landry is an impressive 2nd year pro, but is much more valuable in PPR leagues than he is in our standard league. The return of Percy Harvin, Sean Lee, and Jerrod Mayo could be huge for Rich, but we’ll see if they’re able to stay on the field. When healthy, Rich is a tough out, but he has had horrendous luck the last two seasons and 2015 does not seem as if it will be ay different.

The first team out is…..

7. Ryan– Career Regular Season Record – 79-40-1; Career Playoff Record – 11-6
- 2006 & 2008 HFFL Champs

Ryan had quite the revival last season and really blew my preseason projection out of the water. After the first month of the season, Ryan was sinking hard, the national media was calling for Tom Brady’s head, but Ryan stayed as cool as the other side of the pillow (Miss ya Stu). Tom roared back and brought the Jedi with him. A stud season from Forte, Nuk Hopkins, and Gates, coupled with amazing bounce back years from Yo, DeSean and Steve Smiff led Ryan on an unbelievable comeback, pushing him all the way to a 3rd place finish. Unfortunately for Ryan, his team is still hanging on the edge of the age cliff. Will his vets be able to repeat last season’s performance? Time will tell. Ryan brought in a lot of youth this offseason by adding Isaiah Crowell, Knile Davis, John Brown, and Devin Funchess. Ryan is doing his best to fight back against father time by bringing in extra youth, which is something he had been knocked for not doing in the past. I still feel Ryan is a big gun or two away from getting himself back into the playoffs and being a legitimate contender, but he surprised me last year and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sneak his way in again.

-------------------- Playoff Teams ------------------

6. Randy – Career Regular Season Record – 39-26; Career Playoff Record – 2-2; ’13 HFFL Champ

I’ve long applauded Randy for building his team the “right” way. Randy has been a very smart drafting team, always looking with an eye toward the future, and having an uncanny ability to get the better of others when trading. This teams future begins and ends with Andrew Luck, leaving Randy in perhaps in the best position of any HFFL franchise for the foreseeable future. Randy is one of very few teams that have a stud at QB, RB, and WR. Marshawn and AB are going to get their’s, we all know that. The biggest question this year is whether or not we get 2013 Gio & Garcon, or the 2014 version, with the entire league hoping it’s the latter. Randy currently has a hole at RB2 and is hoping he gets something from Gio, DMC, or Tre Mason while Gurley is out. Mike Floyd and Crabtree are hoping to bounce back and solidify Randy’s WR corps. Randy spent a lot of draft capital revamping his WR corps and hopes that this will pay off big time for him in the long term. Randy boasts one of the league’s best defenses yet again, led by all-world LB Lavonte David. With any luck (pun intended), Randy will get healthy and full seasons out of Cush and Poz, which would potentially elevate him to the top defense in the league. Randy is yet again not a team you want to see in a win or go home situation.

5. Mike – Career Regular Season Record – 30-35; Career Playoff Record – 2-1

Mike snuck his way into the playoffs last year and despite how hard I tried while grading the teams, I just couldn’t leave him out. As much as I love Mike, the poor fella has had a tumultuous offseason, one in which he suggested the league be redrafted during the league rule voting period. Mike has long felt he was dealt a poor card when he entered the league, but I must remind him that he inherited a team fresh off of a championship win., one that included Aaron Rodgers. I understand he feels that the team may have been an overachieving bunch, while that may have been true, there have been many other teams dealt much worse initial cards and they haven’t said a peep. Heck, Randy and Normandin took over teams that were left for dead and have turned them both into serious contenders. /rant. Mike appears to finally have his team the way he likes it and is looking to build off of last season’s surprise 2nd place finish. Mike has upgraded himself at the QB position and his RBs have really come together. Le’Veon went from unimpressive rookie to potentially the top RB in the entire NFL. Mike made a great move getting him cheap from the ever hating Jim. Guess we know who knew more on that one. JStew showed extreme signs of life down the stretch last season; playing like the beast that many fantasy writers had him pegged as being early in his career. Latavius Murray is a trendy sleeper RB for 2015, but Mike has himself covered with the ever underrated Roy Helu. Mike’s WRs are a very interesting bunch. VJax and Fitz are coming off down years and Adams and Britt have found themselves in appealing fantasy situations. If Adams is able to replicate 75% of the stats that Jordy usually scores, Mike will be very dangerous. TE is a pretty big sore spot while Julius Thomas is out, but once he returns Mike should have a top 6 player at the position for the remainder of the season. Mike has a stout defensive, but it’s not a unit that will single handedly win him games. Mike’s team as a whole appears to be playoff worthy, but there are some question marks that have me leaving him out of the league’s elite and questioning whether or not he’ll be able to hold off a couple of the first teams listed out of the playoffs. How Mike fares during Le’Veon’s suspension may be what makes or breaks his season.

This was where the final tier of teams stuck out to me. Each of these teams has a very good case for why they should be crowned the 2015 HFFL Champion. Three of the four teams have been to a Ship and two have won Ships in the past.

4. Normandin – Franchise Record – 12-27; Playoff Record – n/a

For the second consecutive season Normandin has cracked the top 5 in the preseason poll, yet he’s only won seven games over that time. I’ll say this, just go look at his team, then come back and read this write up…
More studly than you’d think for a team that’s gone 7-19 the last two years. So what happened? Well, Kaep predictably flopped, Johnny Fooseball partied his way into trouble, AP whooped the snot out of one of his 36 children, Mike Wallace cried his way to the bench, and Brandin Cooks got hurt. That’s a tough pill for any team to swallow. This year Scott has four QBs, each of which has a high rushing yardage floor, and he has a potential long term answer in Mariota. Lacy, Peterson, and Forsett is the best trio of fantasy RBs in the league this season and will likely spoil Scott with a substantial weekly advantage over any opponent. 2014’s breakout star Emanuel Sanders has Peyton throwing to him for at least one more season and Cooks is going to see all the targets he can handle from Brees. I’m not sure yet what to make of Wallace in Minnesota, but I believe in Teddy and Norv and think he will make some noise. Normadnin also drafted my top rated rookie of the 2015 draft class in Amari Cooper. Amari is a flat out stud and will likely push himself into Scott’s lineup by mid-season, if not earlier. His TE duo has a solid starter and a player with ridiculous upside in ASJ. Defensively Norm is a middle of the pack unit and that will likely be his ultimate undoing. Relying on defenders that provide sack heavy production and low tackle yield is risky business and more often than not bites you in the end. Hoewever, if he stays healthy, Normandin is THAT team for 2015. You know that team, the one that can drop two-hundo on you any given week . As has been proven in the past, these are the teams that are the most scary to go up against in the playoffs.

3. Jeff – Career Reg Season Record – 65-54-1; Playoffs – 7-6; ’07 HFFL Champ

Jeff’s Colts fandom has reached all-time status and is beginning to affect his player judgment. As Kobe learned in week 16 of 2009, having all your eggs in one teams basket can really come back to bite ya, especially if the team begins resting players. Jeff added Peyton Manning this offseason, indicating he’s all in for the 2015 title. Shady and CJ Anderson is a very formidable starting RB duo, but is also a unit that has some serious question marks entering the year. Is Shady going to be healthy for the start of the year? He’s currently racing the clock to get himself right. Is CJA a product of Peyton Manning, or a transcendent talent? History says the system makes the man, remember when Montee Ball was going to be an eilte RB1 last year? Now he’s a FA, hoping he can land a role as some other RBs caddy. Ellington predictably flopped as the workhorse for Arizona last year, but may return to the effective change of pace player he was in 2013 with a better monitored workload. Jeff is starting two Colts WRs and has both TEs, that’s just pure ballsiness. Josh Gordon has cost Jeff a ton and would likely put Jeff ahead of the next team on the list if he weren’t so stupid. Hakeen Nicks has completely lost it, I don’t even know what to say about that. It blows my mind, it’s like he’s been zapped Space Jam style. Martavis Bryant is looking like Josh Gordon lite, so obviously he will be gone for the first four games of the year for smoking that bleep. Jeff’s once elite defensive has really taken a turn. Injuries have been brutal, but the loss of Lavonte David will be a very tough one to overcome. Jeff is a full on contender, but he has a lot of risk and question marks for a team considered a heavy title favorite.

2. Jim – Career Regular Season Record – 87-32-1; Career Playoff Record – 8-11

Jim has had two consecutive “down” seasons, failing to win double digit games for the second year in a row after three straight 11 win seasons. Jim continued building upon the youth revival he started prior to the 2014 season and may have the best paper champ team he’s had since 2009. He added some key pieces this offseason in Arian Foster (who subsequently got hurt), Todd Gurley (who is officially out for week 1), TJ Yeldon, and Odell Beckham Jr. Jim hopes these additions can push him from paper champion to real champion. Considering this league is entering its 10th season, there is a considerable amount of data to back up the claim that I’m about to state. Jim is a master choke artist, a real Jim Kelly. He is the only original HFFL member to not have a championship ring, even though he is the 2nd winningest team in league history. Jim has been to and choked in more championships than any other team and is on track to add yet another notch to his belt this season. Many around the fantasy community think Drew Brees is on his way out and the replacement Jim drafted, Blake Bortles, absolutely bombed as a rookie. Jim has the strongest WR unit he’s ever had with Alshon, Cobb, and OBJ, but he has very little in the way of proven depth to back them up. Gronk is ridiculous and Travis Kelce has made waves and is considered a high end TE1 but most “experts.” Defensively, Jim is weaker than he’s been in years, but he is still a top five unit in the league. Could 2015 be Jim’s year? Hahahahahaha, C’mon man.

**************Your 2015 HFFL Champion****************

1 - Matt – Career Record – 60-18; Playoff Record 10-4; ’10, ’11, ’14 HFFL Champs

Ole three time. Plain and simple, Matt has flat out kicked the leagues butt since he joined. Remember when he was an idiot for trading Jake Dwayne Bowe for Brandon Marshall? Remember when he gave three 1sts for Dez when he was a rookie? Remember when he traded Steven Jackson to Jim for Calvin and two 1sts? Remember when he gave Big Al a handy for Jamaal Charles and Miles Austin? Remember when he conned Mike out of Aaron Rodgers? Remember when he traded his backup QB and someone else for JJ Watt? Unfortunately we should all remember all of these things. Kobe has absolutely owned this league and has done so with a smug, bleep eating grin, and a cocky little attitude. Matt’s only weakness is his RB corps, but as he proved last year, even that isn’t enough to slow him down. As luck would have it, Christine Michael was traded to Dallas to give him yet another shot at legitimate RBproduction from a player stashed on his bench. The fantasy world is down on Jimmy Graham after moving to Seattle. Now I agree that he may not see as many targets as he had before just because that’s not in Seattle’s nature under Pete Carroll, but he is still easily the #2 option in fantasy at TE and will be force fed by Wilson. Matt still boasts the best WR trio this league has ever seen in Mega, Dez, and AJG. Matt’s defense is very good, easily a top 5 unit in the league yet again Can Matt overcome the odds and beat the preseason poll curse? He has three words for ya, Justin James Watt.

I would like to thank you all again for making this league so fun and competitive. I hope you enjoy this preseason poll as much as I enjoyed writing. Best of luck this season! I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds!
Barrow Snowmen- 14 team - 0.5 PPR, IDP - Yr 18
Jacksonville Jaguars - 32 team - Real GM - Yr 12
Jimmy Graham Cracker wrote:Don't let your recency bias affect your judgment.

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