Deflated rookie QB value?

[moishetreats]

(Cross-posted on the Dynasty League Discussion board, where the focus there is on 1QB leagues):

Focusing on 2QB or an SF leagues, I am wondering if QBs' values will be deflated this year since there seem to be 4 or 5 in the mix for the best of the bunch. Without any clear tiers, it seems like people might pass on them earlier, willing to take the best of what is left later. Just like in a draft: if you need one more WR and one more RB with two picks left and if you have one WR that you like and four RBs that you like at your first pick, then you take the WR even if you think that the RBs overall are better.

You know -- supply and demand...

Thoughts?

[Servo]

I've mentioned in other posts that PRE-LANDING SPOT I'd be comfortable taking Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold in any shape or form.

POST-LANDING SPOT I'd be comfortable taking Lamar if he goes to an innovative/ahead of the curve HC/OC combo.

Josh Allen, I'm not sure I'd take him unless I know he's going to sit for a year like Mahomes.

I don't think these guys are devalued because I know I'd much rather take the top 3 guys than being left with having to settle on Josh Allen.

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

I think it's too soon to tell. Landing spot is going to be huge in relation to how clear the path is to playing time.

[spartan833]

Removing landing spot and looking at the situation in theory, in sflex/2QB they are king and will always carry a lot of value. Just look at startups for an idea. Typically any QB of note is gone in the first 2-3 rounds. Also, if this league is not in it's first year (even if it is, maybe), there will be some teams that are short a QB or two and will not take the chance of letting one of the players slide a full round.

Now if you mean will an owner at 1.02 or 1.03 skip taking a QB with the hopes of one of their QBs falling to them, then it will probably be based on how much they need a QB. I can't see someone that needs a starter thinking that their 5th or 6th QB is worth the wait.

Also, with it being dynasty, you can pick up starting RB and WR somewhat easily to round out your team, it is always more difficult to pry away a QB which makes it more likely that they won't slide. I can't see many teams letting QBs slide enough to pass on a QB to get one in round two unless they fall in love with one of the guys that is projected to go a little later.

[akbfrosty]

I don't know that it'll be deflated necessarily, but I do think that the "value" will be flat across the mid 1st to late 1st part of the draft.

In other words, I think 1.05 will be minimally more valuable than 1.12, and I'll likely attempt to position myself in rookie drafts with that in mind. The only thing that will change this is an unexpected fall in the NFL draft from one of the QBs, and even then, going from 5 QBs to 4 QBs won't affect anything that much.

The reason I'm not so sure that their value will be deflated is because the rookie draft doesn't snake, which is normally what allows that scenario you laid out to happen. Someone would have to have several picks in the mid to late 1st and early 2nd to attempt it. If you're on the clock at 1.11 with 2.11 as your next pick, and there are 3 QBs on the board, they'll be gone by 2.11. If you've got 1.11 and 2.02 in that scenario, and you don't care which QB you get, sure draft the better position RB/WR.

[moishetreats]

Thanks, everyone. Makes a lot of sense, and I appreciate the replies!

Great point, as well, about the rookie draft not snaking.

[Phaded]

As the owner of 1.09; I hope the values get deflated, I would love to land a solid QB at 1.09 but I imagine my league is learning better by now.

[ArrylT]

I think its going to be on a case by case basis - and usually it is started by when the first owner takes a QB - as everyone else who feels QB is a need suddenly follows suite.

[ArrylT]

As the owner of 1.09; I hope the values get deflated, I would love to land a solid QB at 1.09 but I imagine my league is learning better by now.

At this time, based on my roster, I do not see myself going QB at my pick - but it will definitely depend on the NFL draft and what happens at the pick(s) ahead of me.

[Snake]

The value of rookie QBs drafted in the first round or early 2nd of the NFL draft is super insulated. Trubisky had a 'meh' season at best and his value is up. Mahomes didn't play and his value is up (even before trading Smith). Watson had 6ish good games and he might be a superflex startup 1st rounder.

Not fact checked -- every 1st/early 2nd round QB I can think of except Manziel and Kizer since 2014 might have had their ADP rise: Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, Winston, Mariota, Goff, Wentz, Lynch (neutral / you could have sold high before Siemian won the job pre-season again) + the 2017 guys mentioned above.

Lesson is: Draft rookie QBs in 12 team 2QB or 14+ team superflex confidently. Unless Cleveland drafts them!!!!

[Snake]

Amending the previous post. Goff's value went down after his rookie season.

[moishetreats]

@Snake: Interesting point.

Isn't that also the case with most 1st-round picks, though -- not just QBs?