QB Values dropping?

[ArrylT]

Has anyone noticed a trend recently in SuperFlex leagues of QBs getting drafted later & later than before? A couple of years ago most of the good starters tended to go by the end of the 4th round but now you're able to get QBs with QB1 upside in the 6th or later rounds.

For example in a SF startup I did 2 years ago 17-18 QBs went in the top 4 rounds - now i am seeing SF startups with 10 or less QBs in the top 4 rounds. Heck even the SF DLF ADP barely has 12 in the top 48 picks.

Seems to me that maybe the Zero QB strategy is following even to SF leagues.

[Jigga94]

To be honest, I think it's mostly the case with startups. So a few things are happening. Maybe more, maybe less...

1. Some or all owners are new to SF and naturally are used to picking guys like Kerryon or Some before Baker. We know this shouldn't be the case, but this is what I've seen from the new startups around these boards. QB fall down the board and as long as everyone passes on them, everyone still has an equal shot to stack up later on.

2. The QBs in the league are in a weird place. Let me explain... You have guys like Wentz and Watson and now Baker that shoot up the dynasty ranks because everyone envisions them as a QB1 for the next 10-15 years. I'm not saying they won't be, but this has been happening more often of late. Also, QB are playing much much longer and I don't think people are easily valuing that. Brady was a very hard QB to rank 5 years ago and to be honest, he was wayyy undervalued because people only thought he'd be around a few more years. Same can be said about Brees, Rivers and Ben now. I've noticed the same thing with Rodgers and now Wilson slowly getting knocked down due to age. I can understand not picking up Brees in a startup for a little while because of age, but Wilson should still be going very early. Now don't get me wrong, he probably still is... The main point is to say that I think the QB are changing hands in the league but very slowly lol and this is messing with the valuations some people have. I think overall the QB production has been better but...

3. It's easier to get points out of QB these days which could also explain the slip. Passing yards are up, Scoring is up. It's a frenzy out there for QB. This may give them more points, but if it brings them closer together in terms of Value Based Drafting, then they should fall down the boards some.

That being said, I rank 5 QB (Mahomes, Luck, Watson, Baker, Wentz) before I rank anyone else in SF. Not because I think Barkley is worth less, but because if I was in a startup, I'm taking one of those guys round 1, unless they are all gone and I'm in the later half of the 1st round. However, thats not what we are seeing anyways in drafts...

[EAGLES]

I’m in the middle of a SuperFlex startup and this one has been completely different then my SuperFlex startup last year. I planned this startup for a QB run and it never happened. QBs have been taken sparingly and it ruined my game plan lol

[moishetreats]

I think that they are dropping but for misguided notions.

There has been both a major influx of young QBs who are starting as rookies AND the lengthening of careers by older productive QBs. This leads fantasy football owners to think that the QB supply is far deeper than it used to be.

And they're right: You don't have to sell Rodgers or Ryan now for nothing; they could get you a few more years. And you also don't have to draft a rookie QB and wait 1-3 years for him to see the field just to try to guess if he'll ever be good. In addition, with offenses as they are, some QBs can step into great schemes and be productive.

Put that together and it seems like the QB supply is deeper than ever.

IMO, that's illusory. All that does is extend the value of the QBs ranked 15 and lower. So, guys pass up on the true studs or difference-makers at QB figuring that they can still get 3-4 QBs like Rivers and Rosen -- Rivers will keep playing and Rosen is young and has 15 years left! But, Rivers is a high-floor, low-ceiling players, and Rosen could be the next Mark Sanchez (never-was) or Blake Bortles.

One more factor: the re-emergence of the stud RB. "There are only five (or four or six, doesn't matter) stud RBs and only five stud WRs and only two stud TEs but a ton of QBs -- I have to get one of those guys!" That makes the QBs like Wentz, Wilson, Winston, etc. fall far below where they should as owners look to get the players in the upper RB, WR, and TE tiers.

Case in point: For Team 1 below, I traded Conner and two 3rd for Wentz. It hurts my starting line-up significantly: Conner is out, Baldwin is in, and Wentz maybe starts a handful of games for me. But, how could I pass it up? The other owner has Winston, Foles, Darnold, and Bridgewater -- thinking that he's now set for a long time after he'll take another QB with his 2019 first-round pick. Good luck to him with that.

In the end, they're left wanting. They're stuck with QBs who can't match the studs by performance and/or young players who might shine for a couple of years but then are perennial back-ups.

------

Great observation, @ArryIT. Now, it's up to all of us to capitalize .

[akbfrosty]

I've always thought a lot of posters' values for QBs were very high for Superflex. 2QB is a different animal because you absolutely have to start a QB or you take a zero, SF not so much.

I've posted about a Zero-QB SF team I started a couple years ago on Reddit a couple of times, and I think there's a strange value phenomenon that takes place with young QBs that has made me fade QBs in my personal rankings.

It goes a little like this...Rookie QBs tend to be valued less than young QBs who have shown some sort of competency. This competency threshold isn't actually that hard to break. Once it's broken the young QB jumps veteran QBs and lands in the "Young QB who looks good" tier, which is around the 2nd-3rd round in startup value. It's basically a 3 round value jump for looking decent. The skill guys you can get, though, go from solid vets/decent young prospects to near-elite talents. Most QBs are not elite, so their values tends to slowly decline as their production isn't elite. The skill position guys in those rounds tend to be elite if they're there, though. Their production is hard to replicate, whereas the QB15 who is 23 years old, his production is easy to replicate.

I'm sure some vehemently disagree, but it has worked for me. Perhaps this won't work anymore if the values are dropping, though.

[ArrylT]

Some very interesting comments so far - appreciate the thoughts so far. I am hoping to do a 2 QB format eventually, having only done Superflex. I quite agree that there is a key distinction between must & can.

[RotateThatFish]

Some great points here and it's something that I'm seeing in my current start up draft (not the one in my sig.). It's been criminal. I've had a help post up for advice and I'm going to link the final draft for feedback when we're done

I believe the reason QBs fell in mine is that most of the guys, including me, are new to dynasty and SF even moreso. They're still drafting based on several factors;

• High profile / appeal of stud RBs and, to a lesser extent, WRs

• Win-Now / Short term considerations

• Transferance of the Late QB strategy

I mean, I took Mahomes at 1.10 (!) and was called out by 2 guys for taking a QB in the first round.
As a result, I'm literally stacked at QB. There's no way I'll be competetive out of the gate, but I'm set for the long term.

[RichDynasty]

I recently completed a 12 man start up SF league(draft took place before the NFL free agency). So I went into the draft with the plan to wait on a QB as long as possible, with 25 QBs off the board I took Mariota with the 9.11 pick and followed with Tannehill at 12.02 and finished with Fitzpatrick in the last round(20).

I had the intentions of targeting owners who invested in 3 QBs and I was able to make a trade for Tom Brady giving up my 19 2.11 pick and Coutee. After the NFL free agency settled I was able to package Mariota and Tannehill plus my 19 1.02, 3.02 and a 20 2 round pick for Trubisky and Agholor 19 4&5 picks. (separate: traded cobb for a 19 3.04 to get my third round pick back).

Overall: I was able to keep my roster in tact. I got Trubisky who hopefully is in line for a productive career, while adding Brady who will buy me a year maybe two. The search for QB is very much real and even though I lost picks, taking a QB late in the draft afforded me to build depth at certain positions.

[ItsHandsomeDave]

Who the hell wants to start Brady and Trubisky every week though. That sounds like a team chasing QB's during the rookie draft every year or having to trade up into them at a premium.

The biggest mistake people make when valuing QB's is that they look at total points scored over a season and deduce that the difference between Rivers and an elite QB is actually quite small. What they always fail to take into account though is that fantasy is a weekly game and a QB with a low floor kills you. There is no coming back from single digit games when they put up a clunker unless you have run into someone whose team has chit the bed.

[Jigga94]

Who the hell wants to start Brady and Trubisky every week though. That sounds like a team chasing QB's during the rookie draft every year or having to trade up into them at a premium.

The biggest mistake people make when valuing QB's is that they look at total points scored over a season and deduce that the difference between Rivers and an elite QB is actually quite small. What they always fail to take into account though is that fantasy is a weekly game and a QB with a low floor kills you. There is no coming back from single digit games when they put up a clunker unless you have run into someone whose team has chit the bed.

Exactly. I've played stacked teams at other positions and not worried. Like one guy had Barkley, Chubb and Mixon. They naturally all went off for 20+ points and I was doomed right? No because Mahomes and Luck outscored all 3 of them and then my 0 RB strategy outscored his duo of Rivers and Keenum.

[RichDynasty]

Who the hell wants to start Brady and Trubisky every week though. That sounds like a team chasing QB's during the rookie draft every year or having to trade up into them at a premium.

The biggest mistake people make when valuing QB's is that they look at total points scored over a season and deduce that the difference between Rivers and an elite QB is actually quite small. What they always fail to take into account though is that fantasy is a weekly game and a QB with a low floor kills you. There is no coming back from single digit games when they put up a clunker unless you have run into someone whose team has chit the bed.

Exactly. I've played stacked teams at other positions and not worried. Like one guy had Barkley, Chubb and Mixon. They naturally all went off for 20+ points and I was doomed right? No because Mahomes and Luck outscored all 3 of them and then my 0 RB strategy outscored his duo of Rivers and Keenum.

Not disagreeing with you guys, I just tried something different in this sf start up league, never said it was the right way to do it. Moves can and will have to be made of course. Would I rather be rolling with mahomes and luck, obviously.

[ArrylT]

I took his post more along the lines of how the QB values are dropping because he was able to get Trubisky & Brady pretty easily even with a zero QB approach.

[RichDynasty]

Update:
Traded: Brady, Fitzpatrick, Aaron Jones, 2020 1st and Received: Matt Ryan, 19 4.09 and 20 3round

[ItsHandsomeDave]

Ok, so to put this into perspective

You traded

Startup 9.11 (Mariotta)
Startup 12.02 (Tannehill)
Startup 20.02 (Fitzpatrick)
Startup Aaron Jones (assuming 5th round in a startup at the moment)
Startup Keke Coutee (assuming 10th or 11th round)
Rookie 1.02
Rookie 2.11
Rookie 3.02
Rookie 2020 first round pick
Rookie 2020 2nd round pick

For

Trubisky
Matt Ryan
Zero real value in the two 4th round picks and one 5th for 2019 and a random third round pick in 2020

[RichDynasty]

Correct

The way I see it I gave up Aaron Jones, Keke, 19 1st and 2nd and 20 1st and 2nd. To end up with Ryan and Trubisky

Brady was also involved. Wasn’t mentioned above*

I got a 19 third round pick back trading away Cobb and flipped that into Albert Wilson.

It wasn’t pretty getting to this point. I could have waited to see how everything played out and tried drafting Qbs/waivers. But I couldnt pass on getting Ryan. True the late round picks have no value, but I also don’t over value my 1st and 2nd rookie picks as much as others, especially during a start up.

Should I have just drafted these QBs? probably. Aaron Jones went 4 picks before Ryan So the draft value is there. Keke went in the 10.11 and Tru in the 6.11 in the draft. Lost the picks. But I went from starting with Mariota/Tannehill/fitz to in the end ryan and trubisky