Fun With Numbers: Size Vs Speed

[Amarok]

And here is some potentially very interesting information:

The top 25 WRs from last year - missing Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas because they didn't have data available - averaged a score of 192.0962768.
Looking at roughly similar size/speed WRs, I can estimate Gordon to be at roughly 199.50 and DT at roughly 215.224 (!)
This brings the top 25 average score to 193.5171936.
If you take out one major outlier - Desean Jackson - it rockets up to 194.9.

But here's the awesome part: The top 10 scored at an average of 195.9.
Again, removing DeSean Jackson and replacing him with the #11 receiver, it jumps to an insane 199.0.
To recap, that puts the average Top 10 receiver in the top 13% in this score.

[BwK]

I think this is very interesting. I would like you to narrow down to only the WR taken in the first three rounds of perhaps 2008-2012. The draft position will account for the variables your formula doesnt(interviews,intangibles,work ethic, etc.). That may give us a new angle to look at.

[Amarok]

WRs - Top Three Rounds from 2007-2013 (I expanded a bit to include more data points)

Name Score Year Round
Calvin Johnson 210.8930844 2007 1
Dez Bryant 207.3314228 2010 1
Greg Little 205.9672866 2011 2
Julio Jones 201.3160246 2011 1
Dwayne Bowe 199.1272563 2007 1
Darrius Heyward-Bey 198.946234 2009 1
Jon Baldwin 198.4609482 2011 1
Arrelious Benn 198.3397776 2010 2
Cordarrelle Patterson 196.8143261 2013 1
Robert Meachem 196.402887 2007 1
Devin Thomas 196.2921723 2008 2
DeVier Posey 195.8376324 2012 3
Michael Floyd 194.5252873 2012 1
Ramses Barden 194.3748715 2009 3
Jordy Nelson 194.1768795 2008 2
Hakeem Nicks 193.247193 2009 1
Jason Hill 192.9151164 2007 3
Andre Caldwell 192.8234765 2008 3
Leonard Hankerson 192.6567599 2011 3
Brian Quick 192.188729 2012 2
Earl Bennett 192.0480419 2008 3
Kenny Britt 191.7742639 2009 1
Stephen Hill 191.5937263 2012 2
Torrey Smith 191.288903 2011 2
Austin Pettis 191.2841152 2011 3
Mike Wallace 191.0276614 2009 3
Aaron Dobson 190.987834 2013 2
Juaquin Iglesias 190.8459122 2009 3
Alshon Jeffery 190.6753873 2012 2
Deandre Hopkins 190.4159087 2013 1
Golden Tate 190.1406078 2010 2
James Jones 189.0477174 2007 3
Percy Harvin 188.9665495 2009 1
Mohamed Massaquoi 188.4814863 2009 2
Brian Robiskie 188.3584844 2009 2
Terrance Williams 187.9320712 2013 3
James Hardy 187.7286801 2008 2
Donnie Avery 187.5930281 2008 2
Andre Roberts 187.5765749 2010 3
Taylor Price 187.4227951 2010 3
Brandon LaFell 186.7431563 2010 3
Mohamed Sanu 186.5443595 2012 3
Paul Williams 186.436972 2007 3
A.J. Green 186.2979908 2011 1
Kendall Wright 185.9784367 2012 1
Steve Smith 185.5901357 2007 2
Marquise Goodwin 185.3762007 2013 3
Laurent Robinson 185.1473801 2007 3
Stedman Bailey 184.4404224 2013 3
Rueben Randle 183.681393 2012 2
Jacoby Jones 182.838751 2007 3
T.J. Graham 182.3309162 2012 3
Markus Wheaton 182.2815007 2013 3
Anthony Gonzalez 182.1402385 2007 1
Randall Cobb 181.78799 2011 2
Jerome Simpson 181.7647499 2008 2
Jeremy Maclin 181.0367372 2009 1
A.J. Jenkins 180.9074871 2012 1
Emmanuel Sanders 180.5891226 2010 3
Tavon Austin 179.9763265 2013 1
Damian Williams 179.7158427 2010 3
Jerrel Jernigan 179.5013766 2011 3
Sidney Rice 177.8964528 2007 2
T.Y. Hilton 177.2459008 2012 3
Eddie Royal 176.536626 2008 2
Dexter Jackson 175.4532982 2008 2
Justin Hunter 172.9738955 2013 2
Deon Butler 171.951323 2009 3
Vincent Brown 171.6039769 2011 3
JohnnieLee Higgins 169.3370521 2007 3
Yamon Figurs 168.6777708 2007 3
Dexter McCluster 168.6775336 2010 2
Harry Douglas 167.2008974 2008 3
DeSean Jackson 165.0133681 2008 2
Titus Young 163.4588847 2011 2
Mario Manningham 163.1396206 2008 3
Titus Young 163.4588847 2011 2
Mario Manningham 163.1396206 2008 3

[BwK]

WRs - Top Three Rounds from 2007-2013 (I expanded a bit to include more data points)

Name Score Year Round
Calvin Johnson 210.8930844 2007 1
Dez Bryant 207.3314228 2010 1
Greg Little 205.9672866 2011 2
Julio Jones 201.3160246 2011 1
Dwayne Bowe 199.1272563 2007 1
Darrius Heyward-Bey 198.946234 2009 1
Jon Baldwin 198.4609482 2011 1
Arrelious Benn 198.3397776 2010 2
Cordarrelle Patterson 196.8143261 2013 1
Robert Meachem 196.402887 2007 1
Devin Thomas 196.2921723 2008 2
Michael Floyd 194.5252873 2012 1
Jordy Nelson 194.1768795 2008 2
Hakeem Nicks 193.247193 2009 1
Brian Quick 192.188729 2012 2
Kenny Britt 191.7742639 2009 1
Stephen Hill 191.5937263 2012 2
Torrey Smith 191.288903 2011 2
Aaron Dobson 190.987834 2013 2
Alshon Jeffery 190.6753873 2012 2
Deandre Hopkins 190.4159087 2013 1
Golden Tate 190.1406078 2010 1
Percy Harvin 188.9665495 2009 1
Mohamed Massaquoi 188.4814863 2009 2
Brian Robiskie 188.3584844 2009 2
James Hardy 187.7286801 2008 2
Donnie Avery 187.5930281 2008 2
A.J. Green 186.2979908 2011 1
Kendall Wright 185.9784367 2012 1
Steve Smith 185.5901357 2007 2
Rueben Randle 183.681393 2012 2
Anthony Gonzalez 182.1402385 2007 1
Randall Cobb 181.78799 2011 2
Jerome Simpson 181.7647499 2008 2
Jeremy Maclin 181.0367372 2009 1
A.J. Jenkins 180.9074871 2012 1
Tavon Austin 179.9763265 2013 1
Sidney Rice 177.8964528 2007 2
Eddie Royal 176.536626 2008 2
Dexter Jackson 175.4532982 2008 2
Justin Hunter 172.9738955 2013 2
Dexter McCluster 168.6775336 2010 2
DeSean Jackson 165.0133681 2008 2
Titus Young 163.4588847 2011 2 3

Removing the third rounders and it seems pretty accurate to a point. You will obviously have to input your own personal opinions and take into account whether the WR is a project or not and any other ? that may arise around certain players(small school product, offensive scheme, yrs of productive college #s, etc.). Other than the AJ miss I would be pretty comfortable using a list of the first 2 round wr taken this yr and using it as part of my big board.

I dont see Crabtree.Jarret and Blackmon on this list. Did you forget them or leave them off?

[Amarok]

Removing the third rounders and it seems pretty accurate to a point. You will obviously have to input your own personal opinions and take into account whether the WR is a project or not and any other ? that may arise around certain players. Other than the AJ miss I would be pretty comfortable using a list of the first 2 round wr taken this yr and using it as part of my big board.

I dont see Crabtree.Jarret and Blackmon on this list. Did you forget them or leave them off?

Yeah, that's kind of what I think we can discern from this metric - Definitely NOT the first factor, but I think this should be used in differentiating players in a tier or something similar. It's just too accurate to not take into account. I'll happily post a new thread with the top 2 rounds for WRs/TEs/RBs once the draft happens. Now I just need a catchy name for the metric. Haha.

To answer your question about missing people, some of the players for one reason or another didn't have a complete data set - usually because they didn't participate in one or more of the tests that were used in this metric. The number wasn't huge (maybe 15 out of 450 or so), but a few people did get knocked off the list for lack of data.

[BwK]

Now I just need a catchy name for the metric.

Amarok Scale

[clarion contrarion]

dude it looks like you are bustin yer tail to put this together but I see james hardy devin thomas brian robiskie and mo massaquoi ahead of aj green that would scare me out of using it as anything more than a cursory tie breaker . I admire yer work ethic on this project however .

[Amarok]

dude it looks like you are bustin yer tail to put this together but I see james hardy devin thomas brian robiskie and mo massaquoi ahead of aj green that would scare me out of using it as anything more than a cursory tie breaker . I admire yer work ethic on this project however .

I'll reiterate what's been said half a dozen times in this thread. This is by no means a predictive or 100% accurate model, just as any kind of metric isn't perfect. There are 1,000 other intangibles that aren't accounted for by combine numbers - route running ability, catching ability, etc. I'd go so far as to say that any metric that aims to predict has its flaws, even well-worn metrics like the Phenom Index.

While there are admitted flaws in the model's outcome, there are not all that many. Let's take it for what it is - a surprisingly accurate measurement of size and speed combos that, especially when paired with a high draft pick, is capable of identifying good combinations of size and speed that can allow you to differentiate between players/tiers, especially when it comes to judging upside and/or potential.

[BwK]

This has intrigued me enough that I am doing alot of research on Enunwa and Janis. If they go in the second round I will be sure to grab them up cheap. They are not on many radars. From what I have seen from Enunwa he reminds me of a poor mans T.O. He just resembles his body and game type on film. speed,blocking,catching tough passes and dropping easy ones.I saw alot of great things on film from Enunwa. Will be a great sleeper if he lands with a top QB. Still doing my research on Janis.

Anyone have any insight to these two prospects?

[Csl312]

Thanks for crunching those numbers. I did some sorting in an excel sheet, and it seems to me by looking that it may actually be a good predictor for being drafted early on in the NFL draft (not having seen any data on later round choices). I think that sample size is pretty good. I am going to try to do a little further analysis on this at some point this week and will report back with anything I find.

[Amarok]

Thanks for crunching those numbers. I did some sorting in an excel sheet, and it seems to me by looking that it may actually be a good predictor for being drafted early on in the NFL draft (not having seen any data on later round choices). I think that sample size is pretty good. I am going to try to do a little further analysis on this at some point this week and will report back with anything I find.

Great - I'll look forward to it! Glad that some folks are finding this as interesting as I did...

[Blackout]

I would have loved to see where Keenan Allen would have been in this list

[Scorp]

This has intrigued me enough that I am doing alot of research on Enunwa and Janis. If they go in the second round I will be sure to grab them up cheap. They are not on many radars. From what I have seen from Enunwa he reminds me of a poor mans T.O. He just resembles his body and game type on film. speed,blocking,catching tough passes and dropping easy ones.I saw alot of great things on film from Enunwa. Will be a great sleeper if he lands with a top QB. Still doing my research on Janis.

Anyone have any insight to these two prospects?

Definately two sleepers.

[Patmos]

While I have not done anything nearly as extensive, I have researched the influence of metrics in an attempt to build a "player profile" for the top WR. I found that the broad jump and vertical are great indicators, along with size/weight/speed. For example, the only top 10 WR with a vertical less than 36" last year was AJ Green at 34.5." All of the top 10 had a broad jump greater than 10' (120"). With the exception of DeSean Jackson, Dez was the only WR shorter than 6'3" (he's 6'2"). Nobody was slower than a 4.55 forty.

As a result, my player profile is:

1- 6'2"+ / 210+ (ideal is 6'3" / 220+)
2- 4.55 forty or better
3- 10' broad jump / 36" vertical

If I look at a WR in the 6'-6'1" range, he needs to be 4.45 forty or better (but I factor less production due to less touchdowns).

I personally believe that combining the metrics into a single metric diminishes the accuracy, I prefer to see if the player meets all the profile requirements individually. If he does, I like him. I will adjust for vertical or height, but I eliminate anyone who doesn't hit the other metrics.

I would certainly be curious on your findings regarding the vertical and broad jump.

[Butt Liqueur]

While I have not done anything nearly as extensive, I have researched the influence of metrics in an attempt to build a "player profile" for the top WR. I found that the broad jump and vertical are great indicators, along with size/weight/speed. For example, the only top 10 WR with a vertical less than 36" last year was AJ Green at 34.5." All of the top 10 had a broad jump greater than 10' (120"). With the exception of DeSean Jackson, Dez was the only WR shorter than 6'3" (he's 6'2"). Nobody was slower than a 4.55 forty.

As a result, my player profile is:

1- 6'2"+ / 210+ (ideal is 6'3" / 220+)
2- 4.55 forty or better
3- 10' broad jump / 36" vertical

If I look at a WR in the 6'-6'1" range, he needs to be 4.45 forty or better (but I factor less production due to less touchdowns).

I personally believe that combining the metrics into a single metric diminishes the accuracy, I prefer to see if the player meets all the profile requirements individually. If he does, I like him. I will adjust for vertical or height, but I eliminate anyone who doesn't hit the other metrics.

I would certainly be curious on your findings regarding the vertical and broad jump.

Can you say "Allen Robinson?"