Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
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Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
I saw this on rotoworld and thought it was at least interesting? Comparing the age and statistics of recievers coming out of college. I figure it is at least worth some discussion this time of year. It is something that I've though about before but never put much effort into discovering for myself.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/4 ... enom-index
Interesting idea but what do you think?
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/4 ... enom-index
Interesting idea but what do you think?
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
The guy who wrote that article writes for rotoviz. If you like the statistical analysis approach I'd suggest checking them out. They are very forward thinking.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
This kind of analysis is exactly the reason I believe Benjamin will not succeed in the NFL. Thanks for the link.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
I saw that article a few days ago...
When I read the first few paragraphs, before I got to the actual results, I was a bit skeptical.
But I must say, based on the results - I think the logic holds a lot of weight. Seeing how well guys like Gordon, Bryant, Hopkins, Allen, Nicks, Cobb, Calvin, Demaryius scored and how poorly guys like Limas Sweed, Donnie Avery, Jordan Shipley, Early Doucet, etc. scored, I'm very fascinated by the study.
When I read the first few paragraphs, before I got to the actual results, I was a bit skeptical.
But I must say, based on the results - I think the logic holds a lot of weight. Seeing how well guys like Gordon, Bryant, Hopkins, Allen, Nicks, Cobb, Calvin, Demaryius scored and how poorly guys like Limas Sweed, Donnie Avery, Jordan Shipley, Early Doucet, etc. scored, I'm very fascinated by the study.
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RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
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QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
I sort of like the idea of the Phenom Index. But there are just way too many holes and important variables that it doesn't consider to take it seriously. It's a bit too much like the fountain of youth or a time machine or a unicorn to me.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
Ya, I agree. There are far too many inconsistancies to use this formula in my opinion. The first thing I noticed based on the phenom index was in 2007 the rookies were rankedDonBrazi wrote:I sort of like the idea of the Phenom Index. But there are just way too many holes and important variables that it doesn't consider to take it seriously. It's a bit too much like the fountain of youth or a time machine or a unicorn to me.
#1 Jarret
#2 S.Rice
#3 Calvin
Based on this formula then I would be convinced calvin would either be a bust on detroit or not live up to the hype. Looking back I'm glad this formula was not around to pursuade me.
After digging I noticed in 2011 Vincent Brown and some UDFA were ranked over A.J. Green using this same formula. If you had convinced me of this formula being accurate I may have passed on green to take ingram #1 and brown #2 and would have two busts on my roster currently.
So yes this is interesting but by no means would I use this in any way to pursuade my research. In both 2007 and 2011 cases could have been made to predict calvin and AJ as busts and this formula would have assisted in those points trying to be proven. Its a case now that if you follow this formula you could be drafting the jarretts and Browns of 2014 and losing the Calvins and the AJs.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
I definitely agree that there are holes in the logic of this index. But you can't argue that it has some weight to it when it is able to identify studs beforehand.
If you can combine this type of index with good film study, you should be able to land studs every year (theoretically)
If you can combine this type of index with good film study, you should be able to land studs every year (theoretically)
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Played against David Johnson in HS, he was a stud back then too
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Gronk, HHenry, Engram
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Played against David Johnson in HS, he was a stud back then too
Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
Yah, but all it is is a common-sensical logic: the younger a guy is, the better and the greater he produces compared to his teammates, the better. The index itself is mostly useless if you take a common sense approach to the film your watching. Not saying I don't appreciate the efforts of guys coming up with indices... but it's not going to identify studs. And fortunately, no metric ever will.HawkeyeState wrote:I definitely agree that there are holes in the logic of this index. But you can't argue that it has some weight to it when it is able to identify studs beforehand.
If you can combine this type of index with good film study, you should be able to land studs every year (theoretically)
IRL 12Team 28man 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1Superflex: PPR w/ small TE-Premium
Dak, Murray, Wentz, Darnold, Fitzpatrick
CEH, Gibson, Sanders, Javonte, Moss, Nwangwu
ARob, Sutton, ODB, Parker, Ruggs, Miller, Boykin
Waller, Hockenson, Pitts, OJH, Trautman, Gesicki, Everett
2022 1st (2), 2nd, 3rd, 4th
War Room 12Team 28man: 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 4Flex, 1Superflex: .5/1/1.5 Tiered-PPR, 1-Round Devy league
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Etienne, AJD, Hubbard, Stevenson, Hawkins, *Spiller
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Hockenson, Jonnu, Firkser, Asiasi
2022 1st (2), 2nd, 3rd, *Devy 4th (2)
Dak, Murray, Wentz, Darnold, Fitzpatrick
CEH, Gibson, Sanders, Javonte, Moss, Nwangwu
ARob, Sutton, ODB, Parker, Ruggs, Miller, Boykin
Waller, Hockenson, Pitts, OJH, Trautman, Gesicki, Everett
2022 1st (2), 2nd, 3rd, 4th
War Room 12Team 28man: 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 4Flex, 1Superflex: .5/1/1.5 Tiered-PPR, 1-Round Devy league
Dak, Murray, LJax, *Rattler
Etienne, AJD, Hubbard, Stevenson, Hawkins, *Spiller
Sutton, ODB, Jeudy, Reagor, Shenault, Rodgers, Kirk, Boykin, *G.Wilson
Hockenson, Jonnu, Firkser, Asiasi
2022 1st (2), 2nd, 3rd, *Devy 4th (2)
Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
A LOT of people in this thread missing the point and do not understand the explanation of the Phenom Index. In short: he states at the start that BY ITSELF, the value explains roughly a quarter of fantasy variation. For a single stat, that's an awful lot. Furthermore, he goes on to say that PI when paired with draft position explains roughly half of fantasy point variation. This explains many of the "busts" on those lists, as players drafted in the 2nd/3rd round are already less likely to succeed regardless of PI due to situation (team isn't relying on them as much) and the fact that NFL talent evaluators didn't like them as much.
So many people in this thread and elsewhere are quick to dismiss things like this as silly because of exceptions as described earlier and because they think the stat claims to be the key to finding every single fantasy stud. No single stat is like that. This article is merely showing that PI (which as explained earlier is really just weighing %stats with age in college) is, along with other things, useful in evaluating players for fantasy purposes.
Also:
So many people in this thread and elsewhere are quick to dismiss things like this as silly because of exceptions as described earlier and because they think the stat claims to be the key to finding every single fantasy stud. No single stat is like that. This article is merely showing that PI (which as explained earlier is really just weighing %stats with age in college) is, along with other things, useful in evaluating players for fantasy purposes.
Also:
Um, what? Isn't having the 3rd highest Index a GOOD thing? Why would that make you think he wouldn't live up to the hype?#1 Jarret
#2 S.Rice
#3 Calvin
Based on this formula then I would be convinced calvin would either be a bust on detroit or not live up to the hype.
Last edited by zounder on Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
I'm sorry...but if you are using this metric as the only measure to draft players by, then the joke is on you.BwK wrote: Ya, I agree. There are far too many inconsistancies to use this formula in my opinion. The first thing I noticed based on the phenom index was in 2007 the rookies were ranked
#1 Jarret
#2 S.Rice
#3 Calvin
Based on this formula then I would be convinced calvin would either be a bust on detroit or not live up to the hype. Looking back I'm glad this formula was not around to pursuade me.
After digging I noticed in 2011 Vincent Brown and some UDFA were ranked over A.J. Green using this same formula. If you had convinced me of this formula being accurate I may have passed on green to take ingram #1 and brown #2 and would have two busts on my roster currently.
So yes this is interesting but by no means would I use this in any way to pursuade my research. In both 2007 and 2011 cases could have been made to predict calvin and AJ as busts and this formula would have assisted in those points trying to be proven. Its a case now that if you follow this formula you could be drafting the jarretts and Browns of 2014 and losing the Calvins and the AJs.
There clearly is no perfect, exact, scientific formula that tells us who will be studs and who will be duds. But just like everything else, I think this study definitely serves a purpose. Often around this time of year, people get too caught up with combine measurements and potential, and they steer away from actual production. This study seems to emphasize production while also accounting for upside & potential because of the age factor.
Is it perfect? Of course not. Is it the end-all-be-all? Only if you're an idiot. But just look at those results, it's clearly doing something right.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
TE: K. Pitts, E. Engram, C. Okonkwo, G. Dulcich
QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
Phenom Index isn't an end-all-be-all for ranking Rookie WRs. It's a guide, a starting point. You still have to account for draft position and measurables.
Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
Every Wr taken in the 1-2 rnd was a stud or borderline stud in college so apparently the phenom index purpose is giving me the ranking of which stud is better because they dominated at a younger age. We do get the point and it helps in our research none. I can create any stat and look back and pull out the positives...Any freshman wearing nikes has a 46% chance of being a stud. Thats all this is. yes it hit on some but it missed on many. Its as good as flipping a coin. Give me a index that has a 65% rate of success and then we can talk. Any index that tells me dwayne jerrett has a higher ranking of anything over calvin johnson is wasting my time. So when this index projects 2014 rankings I laugh because just like in 2007 and 2011 the best wr in the class is ranked behind busts...so my question is why even include this index in your data of determining if you like a player? I can tell by film study that dez bryant is going to be a stud I dont need this.Zounder wrote:A LOT of people in this thread missing the point and do not understand the explanation of the Phenom Index. In short: he states at the start that BY ITSELF, the value explains roughly a quarter of fantasy variation. For a single stat, that's an awful lot. Furthermore, he goes on to say that PI when paired with draft position explains roughly half of fantasy point variation. This explains many of the "busts" on those lists, as players drafted in the 2nd/3rd round are already less likely to succeed regardless of PI due to situation (team isn't relying on them as much) and the fact that NFL talent evaluators didn't like them as much.
So many people in this thread and elsewhere are quick to dismiss things like this as silly because of exceptions as described earlier and because they think the stat claims to be the key to finding every single fantasy stud. No single stat is like that. This article is merely showing that PI (which as explained earlier is really just weighing %stats with age in college) is, along with other things, useful in evaluating players for fantasy purposes.
Also:
Um, what? Isn't having the 3rd highest Index a GOOD thing? Why would that make you think he wouldn't live up to the hype?#1 Jarret
#2 S.Rice
#3 Calvin
Based on this formula then I would be convinced calvin would either be a bust on detroit or not live up to the hype.
Oh and by the way the author omitted desmond briscoe in his rankings. He should be listed at #2 with an index rating over 4...what a joke. He clearly wants to sway his findings and by him hiding this in his roto article I dismiss this completely.(Don't tell me briscoe should be ommitted because he was a 6th rnd pick because Gordon was taken in the supp draft which equals the 4-6 rnd in the traditional draft. However the author "Had" to use Gordon to grab the readers attention otherwise d. jarrett would be #1 on the list.)
Last edited by BwK on Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TE-Graham, Green
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TE-Graham, Green
K-Bailey, Prater
DEF-Rams
Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
Oh boy. Let's have some fun.
This just isn't true. Not sure what else to say.BwK wrote:Every Wr taken in the 1-2 rnd was a stud or borderline stud in college
It's not and no one has claimed such. A lot of what you argue is a strawman argument, attacking a point no one in their right mind is making.so apparently the phenom index purpose is giving me the ranking of which stud is better because they dominated at a younger age.
You clearlty don't.We do get the point
I absolutely encourage you to track who wore Nike vs. non-Nike apparel and I guarantee you that # is nowhere near 46%. However, I think your point is that if you looked hard enough, you'd find something like that, and I agree. However, it only takes common sense to see that that kind of correlation obviously has no causation attached, while it also takes common sense to realize that since age-weighted production (PI) correlates with fantasy points, there is likely at least SOME causation.I can create any stat and look back and pull out the positives...Any freshman wearing nikes has a 46% chance of being a stud.
By itself, maybe not buch better than flipping a coin. No one is arguing too much differently, though, so again, strawman here. But I'd like to see a fantasy roster assembled by "flipping a coin" and another roster assembled by using PI ALONGSIDE other obviously useful metrics and I think we'd see that one is clearly better than the other.Its as good as flipping a coin.
Doesn't exist. Don't know what else to say here. Please show me otherwise so I can make a fortune having a 65% success rate from a SINGLE STAT on my fantasy choices.Give me a index that has a 65% rate of success and then we can talk.
So then is height wasting your time? There are WRs of taller height than Calvin. That's worthless according to you. What about weight? Other WRs weigh more. Other WRs also outproduced him in college. Others outproduced his individual combine #s. And so on. It's impossible to expect any single measurement/stat to have exact rankings. Otherwise it's be 100% accurate, which is pretty much impossible. (Unless it's fantasy points themselves, but that's not the exercise here.Any index that tells me dwayne jerrett has a higher ranking of anything over calvin johnson is wasting my time.
It doesn't.So when this index projects 2014 rankings
This is another strawman point. That this metric isn't about "Hey, we all expect Dez Bryant to be a stud because of his PI" because as you pointed out, it's pretty clear from film often that certain guys will be studs. For instance, I don't think any of us needed convincing about Calvin Johnson. But it help identify studs and useful fantasy players (along with other stats) from the entire pool of WRs. Got a WR you aren't sure about? Check out his PI among other things to help make your opinion.I can tell by film study that dez bryant is going to be a stud I dont need this.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
Zounder, If you believe in the index go for it. You will be no better off than the others who dont use it.
My point is this: There are so many variables in determining how we set up our draft boards. Why incorporate an index that is wrong more often than not? It just adds confusion.
My point is this: There are so many variables in determining how we set up our draft boards. Why incorporate an index that is wrong more often than not? It just adds confusion.
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RB-Foster, GIO, Mathews, L. Murray, JStew, Duke
WR-Green, Sammy, Benjamin, B. Coleman, Fitzgerald, Lee, Latimer, Algholar, C. Coleman, Doctson
TE-Graham, Green
K-Bailey, Prater
DEF-Rams
QB- Ryan, Romo, Winston
RB-Foster, GIO, Mathews, L. Murray, JStew, Duke
WR-Green, Sammy, Benjamin, B. Coleman, Fitzgerald, Lee, Latimer, Algholar, C. Coleman, Doctson
TE-Graham, Green
K-Bailey, Prater
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.
The Phenom index is a tool..It all depends on how you use it. At the least it was worth a read.
I will say that In the end It made me alot more interested in Robinson.
I will say that In the end It made me alot more interested in Robinson.
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