Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

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Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby 1standgoal » Sat Mar 29, 2014 12:53 pm

I saw this on rotoworld and thought it was at least interesting? Comparing the age and statistics of recievers coming out of college. I figure it is at least worth some discussion this time of year. It is something that I've though about before but never put much effort into discovering for myself.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/4 ... enom-index

Interesting idea but what do you think?
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby teambadknees » Sat Mar 29, 2014 2:30 pm

The guy who wrote that article writes for rotoviz. If you like the statistical analysis approach I'd suggest checking them out. They are very forward thinking.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby zounder » Sat Mar 29, 2014 5:30 pm

This kind of analysis is exactly the reason I believe Benjamin will not succeed in the NFL. Thanks for the link.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby kmbryant09 » Sat Mar 29, 2014 8:55 pm

I saw that article a few days ago...

When I read the first few paragraphs, before I got to the actual results, I was a bit skeptical.

But I must say, based on the results - I think the logic holds a lot of weight. Seeing how well guys like Gordon, Bryant, Hopkins, Allen, Nicks, Cobb, Calvin, Demaryius scored and how poorly guys like Limas Sweed, Donnie Avery, Jordan Shipley, Early Doucet, etc. scored, I'm very fascinated by the study.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby DonBrazi » Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:25 am

I sort of like the idea of the Phenom Index. But there are just way too many holes and important variables that it doesn't consider to take it seriously. It's a bit too much like the fountain of youth or a time machine or a unicorn to me.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby BwK » Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:31 am

DonBrazi wrote:I sort of like the idea of the Phenom Index. But there are just way too many holes and important variables that it doesn't consider to take it seriously. It's a bit too much like the fountain of youth or a time machine or a unicorn to me.
Ya, I agree. There are far too many inconsistancies to use this formula in my opinion. The first thing I noticed based on the phenom index was in 2007 the rookies were ranked

#1 Jarret
#2 S.Rice
#3 Calvin

Based on this formula then I would be convinced calvin would either be a bust on detroit or not live up to the hype. Looking back I'm glad this formula was not around to pursuade me.

After digging I noticed in 2011 Vincent Brown and some UDFA were ranked over A.J. Green using this same formula. If you had convinced me of this formula being accurate I may have passed on green to take ingram #1 and brown #2 and would have two busts on my roster currently.

So yes this is interesting but by no means would I use this in any way to pursuade my research. In both 2007 and 2011 cases could have been made to predict calvin and AJ as busts and this formula would have assisted in those points trying to be proven. Its a case now that if you follow this formula you could be drafting the jarretts and Browns of 2014 and losing the Calvins and the AJs.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby HawkeyeState » Sun Mar 30, 2014 10:54 am

I definitely agree that there are holes in the logic of this index. But you can't argue that it has some weight to it when it is able to identify studs beforehand.
If you can combine this type of index with good film study, you should be able to land studs every year (theoretically)
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Julio, Nuk, Fuller, Cooks, ARob, Watkins, Cooper, SShepard, CDavis, DJ Chark
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Played against David Johnson in HS, he was a stud back then too

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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby DonBrazi » Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:32 am

HawkeyeState wrote:I definitely agree that there are holes in the logic of this index. But you can't argue that it has some weight to it when it is able to identify studs beforehand.
If you can combine this type of index with good film study, you should be able to land studs every year (theoretically)
Yah, but all it is is a common-sensical logic: the younger a guy is, the better and the greater he produces compared to his teammates, the better. The index itself is mostly useless if you take a common sense approach to the film your watching. Not saying I don't appreciate the efforts of guys coming up with indices... but it's not going to identify studs. And fortunately, no metric ever will.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby zounder » Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:25 pm

A LOT of people in this thread missing the point and do not understand the explanation of the Phenom Index. In short: he states at the start that BY ITSELF, the value explains roughly a quarter of fantasy variation. For a single stat, that's an awful lot. Furthermore, he goes on to say that PI when paired with draft position explains roughly half of fantasy point variation. This explains many of the "busts" on those lists, as players drafted in the 2nd/3rd round are already less likely to succeed regardless of PI due to situation (team isn't relying on them as much) and the fact that NFL talent evaluators didn't like them as much.

So many people in this thread and elsewhere are quick to dismiss things like this as silly because of exceptions as described earlier and because they think the stat claims to be the key to finding every single fantasy stud. No single stat is like that. This article is merely showing that PI (which as explained earlier is really just weighing %stats with age in college) is, along with other things, useful in evaluating players for fantasy purposes.

Also:
#1 Jarret
#2 S.Rice
#3 Calvin

Based on this formula then I would be convinced calvin would either be a bust on detroit or not live up to the hype.
Um, what? Isn't having the 3rd highest Index a GOOD thing? Why would that make you think he wouldn't live up to the hype?
Last edited by zounder on Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby kmbryant09 » Sun Mar 30, 2014 7:21 pm

BwK wrote: Ya, I agree. There are far too many inconsistancies to use this formula in my opinion. The first thing I noticed based on the phenom index was in 2007 the rookies were ranked

#1 Jarret
#2 S.Rice
#3 Calvin

Based on this formula then I would be convinced calvin would either be a bust on detroit or not live up to the hype. Looking back I'm glad this formula was not around to pursuade me.

After digging I noticed in 2011 Vincent Brown and some UDFA were ranked over A.J. Green using this same formula. If you had convinced me of this formula being accurate I may have passed on green to take ingram #1 and brown #2 and would have two busts on my roster currently.

So yes this is interesting but by no means would I use this in any way to pursuade my research. In both 2007 and 2011 cases could have been made to predict calvin and AJ as busts and this formula would have assisted in those points trying to be proven. Its a case now that if you follow this formula you could be drafting the jarretts and Browns of 2014 and losing the Calvins and the AJs.
I'm sorry...but if you are using this metric as the only measure to draft players by, then the joke is on you.

There clearly is no perfect, exact, scientific formula that tells us who will be studs and who will be duds. But just like everything else, I think this study definitely serves a purpose. Often around this time of year, people get too caught up with combine measurements and potential, and they steer away from actual production. This study seems to emphasize production while also accounting for upside & potential because of the age factor.

Is it perfect? Of course not. Is it the end-all-be-all? Only if you're an idiot. But just look at those results, it's clearly doing something right.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
TE: K. Pitts, E. Engram, C. Okonkwo, G. Dulcich

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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby lifesyourcup » Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:53 pm

Phenom Index isn't an end-all-be-all for ranking Rookie WRs. It's a guide, a starting point. You still have to account for draft position and measurables.

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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby BwK » Mon Mar 31, 2014 3:20 am

Zounder wrote:A LOT of people in this thread missing the point and do not understand the explanation of the Phenom Index. In short: he states at the start that BY ITSELF, the value explains roughly a quarter of fantasy variation. For a single stat, that's an awful lot. Furthermore, he goes on to say that PI when paired with draft position explains roughly half of fantasy point variation. This explains many of the "busts" on those lists, as players drafted in the 2nd/3rd round are already less likely to succeed regardless of PI due to situation (team isn't relying on them as much) and the fact that NFL talent evaluators didn't like them as much.

So many people in this thread and elsewhere are quick to dismiss things like this as silly because of exceptions as described earlier and because they think the stat claims to be the key to finding every single fantasy stud. No single stat is like that. This article is merely showing that PI (which as explained earlier is really just weighing %stats with age in college) is, along with other things, useful in evaluating players for fantasy purposes.

Also:
#1 Jarret
#2 S.Rice
#3 Calvin

Based on this formula then I would be convinced calvin would either be a bust on detroit or not live up to the hype.
Um, what? Isn't having the 3rd highest Index a GOOD thing? Why would that make you think he wouldn't live up to the hype?
Every Wr taken in the 1-2 rnd was a stud or borderline stud in college so apparently the phenom index purpose is giving me the ranking of which stud is better because they dominated at a younger age. We do get the point and it helps in our research none. I can create any stat and look back and pull out the positives...Any freshman wearing nikes has a 46% chance of being a stud. Thats all this is. yes it hit on some but it missed on many. Its as good as flipping a coin. Give me a index that has a 65% rate of success and then we can talk. Any index that tells me dwayne jerrett has a higher ranking of anything over calvin johnson is wasting my time. So when this index projects 2014 rankings I laugh because just like in 2007 and 2011 the best wr in the class is ranked behind busts...so my question is why even include this index in your data of determining if you like a player? I can tell by film study that dez bryant is going to be a stud I dont need this.

Oh and by the way the author omitted desmond briscoe in his rankings. He should be listed at #2 with an index rating over 4...what a joke. He clearly wants to sway his findings and by him hiding this in his roto article I dismiss this completely.(Don't tell me briscoe should be ommitted because he was a 6th rnd pick because Gordon was taken in the supp draft which equals the 4-6 rnd in the traditional draft. However the author "Had" to use Gordon to grab the readers attention otherwise d. jarrett would be #1 on the list.)
Last edited by BwK on Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby zounder » Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:54 am

Oh boy. Let's have some fun.
BwK wrote:Every Wr taken in the 1-2 rnd was a stud or borderline stud in college
This just isn't true. Not sure what else to say.
so apparently the phenom index purpose is giving me the ranking of which stud is better because they dominated at a younger age.
It's not and no one has claimed such. A lot of what you argue is a strawman argument, attacking a point no one in their right mind is making.
We do get the point
You clearlty don't. :(
I can create any stat and look back and pull out the positives...Any freshman wearing nikes has a 46% chance of being a stud.
I absolutely encourage you to track who wore Nike vs. non-Nike apparel and I guarantee you that # is nowhere near 46%. However, I think your point is that if you looked hard enough, you'd find something like that, and I agree. However, it only takes common sense to see that that kind of correlation obviously has no causation attached, while it also takes common sense to realize that since age-weighted production (PI) correlates with fantasy points, there is likely at least SOME causation.
Its as good as flipping a coin.
By itself, maybe not buch better than flipping a coin. No one is arguing too much differently, though, so again, strawman here. But I'd like to see a fantasy roster assembled by "flipping a coin" and another roster assembled by using PI ALONGSIDE other obviously useful metrics and I think we'd see that one is clearly better than the other.
Give me a index that has a 65% rate of success and then we can talk.
Doesn't exist. Don't know what else to say here. Please show me otherwise so I can make a fortune having a 65% success rate from a SINGLE STAT on my fantasy choices.
Any index that tells me dwayne jerrett has a higher ranking of anything over calvin johnson is wasting my time.
So then is height wasting your time? There are WRs of taller height than Calvin. That's worthless according to you. What about weight? Other WRs weigh more. Other WRs also outproduced him in college. Others outproduced his individual combine #s. And so on. It's impossible to expect any single measurement/stat to have exact rankings. Otherwise it's be 100% accurate, which is pretty much impossible. (Unless it's fantasy points themselves, but that's not the exercise here.
So when this index projects 2014 rankings
It doesn't.
I can tell by film study that dez bryant is going to be a stud I dont need this.
This is another strawman point. That this metric isn't about "Hey, we all expect Dez Bryant to be a stud because of his PI" because as you pointed out, it's pretty clear from film often that certain guys will be studs. For instance, I don't think any of us needed convincing about Calvin Johnson. But it help identify studs and useful fantasy players (along with other stats) from the entire pool of WRs. Got a WR you aren't sure about? Check out his PI among other things to help make your opinion.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby BwK » Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:00 am

Zounder, If you believe in the index go for it. You will be no better off than the others who dont use it.

My point is this: There are so many variables in determining how we set up our draft boards. Why incorporate an index that is wrong more often than not? It just adds confusion.
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Re: Phenom Index...About a Roto piece.

Postby 1standgoal » Mon Mar 31, 2014 10:28 am

The Phenom index is a tool..It all depends on how you use it. At the least it was worth a read.

I will say that In the end It made me alot more interested in Robinson.
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